Pick 4 on the table?

[sydney_gws]

And keep Mac Andrew.

How about Chol and 4 for pick 2 and a non aggression pact on bidding.

Or trade 4, 2024r2,r3 for 2 , 30.
Don't pick who north wants with pick 2.
Those is draft manipulation , so won't happen?
But the AFl does competition manipulation, so who knows?

 

[sydney_gws]

If I were you I wouldn't want it fixed, it really helps both our clubs. I agree with you in terms of getting it fixed, the so called curve is way out of whack. Top 10 picks need to be worth TWO times more, it's getting beyond a joke. I use the pub test, lets say I have pick 5 and you have picks 30,31, 32. One is worth a more somehow! It should be the other way around.

The curve is ok in terms of historic value, but not market value of picks.
Pick 5 gets you a 60% chance of a 150 gamer ,
those 30 picks probably 24% chance each hence they add together to 72% chance of a 150 gamer.

As an aside, do you know when/where Mills injury occurred? Was it the Monday after Carlton beat the swans?

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Or trade 4, 2024r2,r3 for 2 , 30.
Don't pick who north wants with pick 2.
Those is draft manipulation , so won't happen?
But the AFl does competition manipulation, so who knows?

I don't think the Suns want pick 2. Was just being cheeky as there are endless trades being suggested where North get a GC tall for unders.

Be much easier for the Suns to get a high pick in addition to academy players next year if they want one, especially as they will probably end up with someone else's first.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The curve is ok in terms of historic value, but not market value of picks.
Pick 5 gets any 60% chance of a 150 gamer ,
those 30 picks probably 24% chance each hence they add together to 72% chance of a 150 gamer.
As an aside, do you know when/where Mills injury occurred? Was it the Monday after Carlton bear swans?

Agree, needs to be more on market value, I'd just double the worth of top 5 picks and add say 50% to picks 6-10, and you shouldn't get discounts. The discount is being able to match it.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Agree, needs to be more on market value, I'd just double the worth of top 5 picks and add say 50% to picks 6-10, and you shouldn't get discounts. The discount is being able to match it.

Never understood why there is a discount for F/S or academy picks.

As you say simply getting the player is enough of a bonus.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Never understood why there is a discount for F/S or academy picks

Theory is to encourage clubs to take them which is obviously unnecessary for those going early

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Never understood why there is a discount for F/S or academy picks.

As you say simply getting the player is enough of a bonus.

All picks you shouldn't get the discount NGA too but we need to make the higher picks worth more.

(Before Brisbane fans jump at me I'm just using this as an example okay)

Last year we had the slam dunk consensus no1 pick get matched for junk picks in the 30's and 40's. Then we had another top 10 pick get matched with worse picks. It's gone way too far. I also don't mind the idea where one of those picks you match with HAVE to be in the round it's made, don't hate that actually.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Theory is to encourage clubs to take them which is obviously unnecessary for those going early

Maybe change it to no discount in the first two rounds then no cost later?

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

All picks you shouldn't get the discount NGA too but we need to make the higher picks worth more.

(Before Brisbane fans jump at me I'm just using this as an example okay)

Last year we had the slam dunk consensus no1 pick get matched for junk picks in the 30's and 40's. Then we had another top 10 pick get matched with worse picks. It's gone way too far. I also don't mind the idea where one of those picks you match with HAVE to be in the round it's made, don't hate that actually.

The Suns are going to do the same this year for 4 players.

Would expect whatever pick 4 is traded for to get broken up several times. Suns may use 12+ picks matching bids this year.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Maybe change it to no discount in the first two rounds then no cost later?

Something like that has been mooted.

 

[Suma Magic]

In the next week or so I’m hoping to update my pick for pick trade data and produce an updated accurate points curve. I’ll post it in here somewhere for all interested in seeing how it compares to the current lolcurve.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The Suns are going to do the same this year for 4 players.

Would expect whatever pick 4 is traded for to get broken up several times. Suns may use 12+ picks matching bids this year.

Yep, I mean my club benefits, but first and foremost I'm a footy fan. The curve and matching is a complete farce we all know it.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

In the next week or so I’m hoping to update my pick for pick trade data and produce an updated accurate points curve. I’ll post it in here somewhere for all interested in seeing how it compares to the current lolcurve.

I did something a while back plotting games played by pick players were taken. Overlaying the AFL points curve it showed more good value from mid and later picks. There were a few outliers particularly Geelong father sons.

 

[Suma Magic]

I did something a while back plotting games played by pick players were taken. Overlaying the AFL points curve it showed more good value from mid and later picks. There were a few outliers particularly Geelong father sons.

Sounds interesting.

I’m just looking at market value of picks, from pick for pick trades, as it’s the only data relevant to the creation of an accurate points curve.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Sounds interesting.

I’m just looking at market value of picks, from pick for pick trades, as it’s the only data relevant to the creation of an accurate points curve.

Right.
The current points curve was based on average salaries, as I'm sure you know.

 

[mpal6]

These are all fair points, but there's a new coach in the big chair making a fresh start.

Don't tell me that pick 2 wouldn't get him thinking about the possibilities.

Mac Andrew already signed for 2 more years. When retention is one of their problems, KPP with good potential has committed his future already. Makes zero sense trying to trade him for a new draft pick who may stay or who may do a Horne-Francis.

 

[My_Username]

If you trade in pick 19 and trade out Chol, there will be a minor deficit. It’s hard to say how much without knowing what you get for him.

Who is offering pick 19 for Chol? Personally, I think we'd be lucky to get a 3rd rounder for him. (more likely a 4th or a token pick). I like the guy, he can be exciting, impactful and is 'almost' there as an AFL KPF, but generally speaking, 26 year olds (27 in Jan) who can't get a regular game in a bottom 4 side don't attract quality picks.

I keep hearing of the great value a bunch of our players who can't get a game for us have, but nobody seems to think their club would want them (for those prices).

Come back when you have likely rumours of actual bids on these players.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Who is offering pick 19 for Chol? Personally, I think we'd be lucky to get a 3rd rounder for him. (more likely a 4th or a token pick). I like the guy, he can be exciting, impactful and is 'almost' there as an AFL KPF, but generally speaking, 26 year olds (27 in Jan) who can't get a regular game in a bottom 4 side don't attract quality picks.

I keep hearing of the great value a bunch of our players who can't get a game for us have, but nobody seems to think their club would want them (for those prices).

Come back when you have likely rumours of actual bids on these players.

Maybe you're confusing me for someone else.

I'm the poster who suggested 2+19 for 4+Andrew.

The post you responded to was discussing that proposal.

You asked how you'll be able to afford that deal with the academy kids.

 

[hawkinoz]

I hope Suns do a win-win trade like the below, rates Chol around the late 30's & Suns compress their late picks into early 30 pick

Hawks F1+30 for Suns 4+57+66+69+Chol

 

[Iva Bigun]

I hope Suns do a win-win trade like the below, rates Chol around the late 30's & Suns compress their late picks into early 30 pick

Hawks F1+30 for Suns 4+57+66+69+Chol

Suns take all the risk here

 

[Iva Bigun]

Maybe you're confusing me for someone else.

I'm the poster who suggested 2+19 for 4+Andrew.

The post you responded to was discussing that proposal.

You asked how you'll be able to afford that deal with the academy kids.

Rates Andrew at about pick 9, and doesn’t guarantee we beat a bid on Walter

 

[hawkinoz]

Suns take all the risk here

That applies to any of the F1's you take.

Rank the bottom 4 teams for 2024 and if hawks are in it, risk is balanced. Hawks can easily be wooden spoon if you go by how the likes of McKay & Esava want to stay away not to mention injuries( we saw how hawks crashed when Sicily & Lewis were not on the park). So the risk of having traded Pick 1 is with hawks too.

With Lombard likely to be a top 5 pick, you have a better chance of being ahead of his bid with a F1 from any of the likely bottom 4 teams.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

That applies to any of the F1's you take.

Rank the bottom 4 teams for 2024 and if hawks are in it, risk is balanced. Hawks can easily be wooden spoon if you go by how the likes of McKay & Esava want to stay away not to mention injuries( we saw how hawks crashed when Sicily & Lewis were not on the park). So the risk of having traded Pick 1 is with hawks too.

With Lombard likely to be a top 5 pick, you have a better chance of being ahead of his bid with a F1 from any of the likely bottom 4 teams.

Under-sized m/f, no need to get carried away now, top 15 maybe

 

[Iva Bigun]

That applies to any of the F1's you take.

Rank the bottom 4 teams for 2024 and if hawks are in it, risk is balanced. Hawks can easily be wooden spoon if you go by how the likes of McKay & Esava want to stay away not to mention injuries( we saw how hawks crashed when Sicily & Lewis were not on the park). So the risk of having traded Pick 1 is with hawks too.

With Lombard likely to be a top 5 pick, you have a better chance of being ahead of his bid with a F1 from any of the likely bottom 4 teams.

It maybe pick 1 or pick 8 who knows, but the return of pick 30 while also losing Chol, is as I said too much of a risk

 

[Keystone agony]

Depends where you see both sides finishing. Arguments both sides, lets not pretend the Dogs were great this year

If you had to bet on one right now it would be the dons to finish lower than dogs. Dons had an easy draw

They get alot more of those middle 6 sides which are always good in the Cats, Swans, Dogs and up and coming crows