Prediction Pick 6

[adammania9]

I'd love a second rounder to snap up Charlie Spargo - defensive small forward whose tackling and pressure are two of his best assets. Can hit the midfield and win his own ball, and he's a confident finisher in front of goal too. If he's there at Pick 38, I want him and if he's gone, I wouldn't mind using a later pick on Brent Daniels who is similar just without the midfield scope.

 

[DraftBalta]

I don’t get this at all, you take best available every day of the week at pick 6.

Historically you can say that about the top 5 but pick 6 has the worst strike rate in the top 10

 

[Apex36]

Historically you can say that about the top 5 but pick 6 has the worst strike rate in the top 10

So your logic is to increase the odds of that pick being a bust by reaching for a player that isn’t the best available?

Solid.

 

[DraftBalta]

So your logic is to increase the odds of that pick being a bust by reaching for a player that isn’t the best available?

Solid.

No that appears to be your warped logic alone, I was merely pointing out that the top 5 is statistically the cut off point for virtually guaranteed quality

 

[grayza2018]

Pretty solid highlights there! I still don't think we'd go at 6 though. He could fall into Richmond's lap at their range of early picks

 

[Apex36]

No that appears to be your warped logic alone, I was merely pointing out that the top 5 is statistically the cut off point for virtually guaranteed quality

Which really has nothing to do with Balta unless you’re implying that the club should reach for him even if he’s not best available....

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Historically you can say that about the top 5 but pick 6 has the worst strike rate in the top 10

But the methodology is you "take best available at pick 6"
A club doesn't stop doing that because of past failures...its a false equivalency

Edit: And it would appear Balta will be lucky to get drafted in the top 20

 

[DraftBalta]

But the methodology is you "take best available at pick 6"
A club doesn't stop doing that because of past failures...its a false equivalency

I could show you some best available's at pick 6

If Hine see's what we need and the real quality is gone I won't give a rats, the frickin pick is cursed

 

[magpies42]

Historically you can say that about the top 5 but pick 6 has the worst strike rate in the top 10

You can flip heads 10 times in a row, but each time you flip a coin it’s 50:50...next one could be tales.

Hine is a master talent scout and true strategist draft day. I’ll back him in. You can’t blame him for injury.

 

[DraftBalta]

Naughton states his case for the defence

Aaron Naughton was a standout at the NAB AFL Draft Combine

DEFENDER Aaron Naughton's end to the season at senior level in the WAFL has seen him become the hottest property among clubs looking to add a tall prospect to their list at this month's NAB AFL Draft.

The 17-year-old has been strongly linked to Fremantle (pick No.5) and Collingwood (No.6) with their top-10 picks, while he's also set to come under consideration from St Kilda with its pair of early selections (No.7 and 8).

Naughton played for the Dockers' WAFL affiliate Peel Thunder in the second half of the year and impressed with his athleticism and tight-checking approach.

Fremantle's pair of early picks means the club could look to bolster its midfield with pick two – Luke Davies-Uniacke, Andrew Brayshaw and Paddy Dow will all be considered – and then go for the local Naughton at pick five.

The Pies are also in the mix to grab Naughton, who grew up in Victoria before shifting to Western Australia and is a keen Collingwood fan.

They do not have as much depth in their key stocks after list changes at the end of the season and Naughton would appeal as a player who could play as soon as next year.

However, the Magpies have also been linked to midfielders Brayshaw and Adam Cerra if either of the pair makes it through to their selection.

The Saints are also tipped to look at Naughton as they weigh up the best combination for their strong draft hand, which is the first time since 2000 they have had two top-10 picks in a draft.

Naughton was a standout performer at the NAB AFL Draft Combine last month, finishing in the top-10 for the agility test (8.22 seconds) and Yo-Yo endurance test (level 21.8).

St Kilda landed Port Adelaide's Logan Austin at last month's trade period to bolster its key defensive stocks, but are still a little short in depth in that area. Key backman Hugh Goddard has missed the past season and a half after suffering serious Achilles and toe injuries.

Midfielder Hunter Clark, half-back Nick Coffield and exciting half-forward/midfielder Jaidyn Stephenson are among the other names linked to the Saints' selections.

Darcy Fogarty's struggles for form this season haven't stopped him from being sought after by clubs in the top rungs of the draft, with North Melbourne linked as possible suitors for the powerful forward with its No.4 pick.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-10/naughton-states-his-case-for-the-defence




Noooooooooooooooooooo Kangas on the FOG

 

[Mukesh]

I don’t get this at all, you take best available every day of the week at pick 6.

Sure... depending on your definition of ‘best available’... I suspect most would agree that is a very subjective call.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I could show you some best available's at pick 6

If Hine see's what we need and the real quality is gone I won't give a rats, the frickin pick is cursed

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were just taking the piss and not that you totally missed the point

 

[magpies42]

Sure... depending on your definition of ‘best available’... I suspect most would agree that is a very subjective call.

Objective by consensus I would say. Either way, we pay big bucks to recruits...you have to trust the system you put in place. Our recruiting team do pretty recruiting to the set strategy.

 

[DraftBalta]

Objective by consensus I would say. Either way, we pay big bucks to recruits...you have to trust the system you put in place. Our recruiting team do pretty recruiting to the set strategy.

Sounds like it will be taken out of their hands and a top 5 will drop, that's our best shot at a gun

 

[TradeDraft]

Screaming for a bloke like this
Anyone care to predict what number he'll go

Between 15-30

 

[Matt_352]

Norf get ya greasy mits off the Fog.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

You do that and I'll try and feign a rats arse

It appears I was wrong and accordingly I've removed the benefit of doubt

 

[whiskeytown]

Naughton states his case for the defence

The Pies are also in the mix to grab Naughton, who grew up in Victoria before shifting to Western Australia and is a keen Collingwood fan.

However, the Magpies have also been linked to midfielders Brayshaw and Adam Cerra if either of the pair makes it through to their selection.

As good as they are would be disappointed if the pies chose inside types in Cera or Brayshaw at pick 6.

We are surplus inside midfielders and our inside midfield work is a relative strength. Would prefer Fogarty, Naughton or even Brander. We need KPP (think Fogarty will play taller than 192cm in the forward line).... rather than punting on a decent one being available still at pick 39.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Some people will lose their shit when Fogarty is there and we don't pick him lol.

 

[pablo disco bar]

How often does a good key forward become avaialable at 38?
If you want a key forward, key defender, line breaker and Brown then the odds would dictate that you go for Fogarty at 6 and then one of the 3 defenders in Petty, Taylor and Clavarino who might be available at 38.
Really wish we had our second pick. Still think we’d be a genuine chance to get Richards at that point despite the recent talk he might go first round.

Ben brown went at 47

 

[Apex36]

Ben brown went at 47

I know, but that’s not the point. The point is that by the third round of the draft it’s extremely rare to find a good KPF prospect. It can happen, but based on needs we’d be much better off if we drafted Fogarty then got a key defender at 38, which are easier to find at that point of the draft.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Remember whoever we get likely takes a season or two to establish themselves.
And importantly what we are looking for is what we see five years from now to ten years plus.

A person that can be a terrific ten year plus player

 

[peter moore]

Some people will lose their shit when Fogarty is there and we don't pick him lol.

Stiff!

 

[TradeDraft]

Some people will lose their shit when Fogarty is there and we don't pick him lol.

So you think Forgaty will be the Slider if the 2017 Draft?

 

[adammania9]

I know, but that’s not the point. The point is that by the third round of the draft it’s extremely rare to find a good KPF prospect. It can happen, but based on needs we’d be much better off if we drafted Fogarty then got a key defender at 38, which are easier to find at that point of the draft.

I don’t buy into these stats. If a player is good, he’ll make it; if he sucks, he won’t make it. It’s nothing but sheer coincidence that says no current good key forwards were taken late. It’s like when people treat picks like nothing in trade discussions because that pick doesn’t have a good history “ohhh look at the last ten players taken with x pick, only four have made it therefore you play it safe and trade it”. Nonsense.


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