Prediction Pick 6

[Pie 4 Life]

So you think Forgaty will be the Slider if the 2017 Draft?

Fogarty will be 10-12. Brander will be the slider IMO. But that's a guess.

 

[TradeDraft]

Fogarty will be 10-12. Brander will be the slider IMO. But that's a guess.

Well at the Moment anything can still Happen but I do get a Feel Brander and Hayes could Tumble down the Draft Order like Grundy and English have in Rescent Drafts

 

[Soups]

Got my tickets to the draft today. Just got to work out if I’m actually going to go haha.

 

[Apex36]

Some people will lose their shit when Fogarty is there and we don't pick him lol.

I can’t say I’ll be pleased about it, but I’m expecting it

 

[Apex36]

I don’t buy into these stats. If a player is good, he’ll make it; if he sucks, he won’t make it. It’s nothing but sheer coincidence that says no current good key forwards were taken late. It’s like when people treat picks like nothing in trade discussions because that pick doesn’t have a good history “ohhh look at the last ten players taken with x pick, only four have made it therefore you play it safe and trade it”. Nonsense.


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Not sure what you’re trying to say here, but it’s a coincidence that not many good key forwards are taken late? Bollocks. Good key forwards as a general rule are always taken relatively early because they’re as rare as hens teeth. It has nothing to do with that strange ‘pick history’ scenario you’ve laid out.

 

[adammania9]

Got my tickets to the draft today. Just got to work out if I’m actually going to go haha.

Have you been before? If so, what’s it like? Because the draft has always to me been one of those things that you stay home and watch, and don’t get much out of actually attending.


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[adammania9]

Not sure what you’re trying to say here, but it’s a coincidence that not many good key forwards are taken late? Bollocks. Good key forwards as a general rule are always taken relatively early because they’re as rare as hens teeth. It has nothing to do with that strange ‘pick history’ scenario you’ve laid out.

So you’re saying picking a key forward after say, pick 30, means it’s a waste of time because it’s written in stone that key forwards taken later won’t make it? Junior form doesn’t dictate AFL form - good players come from every direction in the draft.


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[Soups]

Have you been before? If so, what’s it like? Because the draft has always to me been one of those things that you stay home and watch, and don’t get much out of actually attending.


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No I haven’t. Thought I’d go suss it out at least once seeing as I’m only a few hours away.

 

[mike123]

Surely no-one would want to go back to SA?

Only if the grandparents are out there to look after your kid so you can go out more.

 

[Apex36]

So you’re saying picking a key forward after say, pick 30, means it’s a waste of time because it’s written in stone that key forwards taken later won’t make it? Junior form doesn’t dictate AFL form - good players come from every direction in the draft.


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No, I’m saying that going by the numbers it’s far more likely that you’ll find an AFL standard key defender at that stage of the draft than a key forward. Given that we need key talls at either end of the ground it makes sense to play the percentages and try for a key defender later and a forward earlier rather than the other way around.

It’s really not a difficult concept to grasp, and given that there are 3 good KPD prospects that are rated around our second pick, and really only one decent KPF prospect in Wooller, the numbers would dictate that we’re far more likely to land one of those 3 KPD than be lucky enough to see Wooller last until our pick.

 

[Dynamics]

Only if the grandparents are out there to look after your kid so you can go out more.

And if they're the type of grandparents who are willing (let alone actually WANT) to look after your kids in anything less than a life threatening emergency.

Not that I know anyone in that situation.

*cough*

 

[adammania9]

No, I’m saying that going by the numbers it’s far more likely that you’ll find an AFL standard key defender at that stage of the draft than a key forward. Given that we need key talls at either end of the ground it makes sense to play the percentages and try for a key defender later and a forward earlier rather than the other way around.

It’s really not a difficult concept to grasp, and given that there are 3 good KPD prospects that are rated around our second pick, and really only one decent KPF prospect in Wooller, the numbers would dictate that we’re far more likely to land one of those 3 KPD than be lucky enough to see Wooller last until our pick.

Disagree, you take the one based on who is better not based on their position. Trends are made to be broken, I’m more than happy to see the club take a key forward at 38 or 56 than follow the trend and reach for one at six. Naughton is best suited at our pick six.


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[grayza2018]

Well at the Moment anything can still Happen but I do get a Feel Brander and Hayes could Tumble down the Draft Order like Grundy and English have in Rescent Drafts

Josh Battle was a reasonably highly ranked kid who slid to our second pick range in the 2016 draft...will we see a top 20 type slide that far this year?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Have you been before? If so, what’s it like? Because the draft has always to me been one of those things that you stay home and watch, and don’t get much out of actually attending.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I went last year, it's good if you're passionate about it but not just for the average supporter who doesn't really know the players.

 

[Apex36]

Disagree, you take the one based on who is better not based on their position. Trends are made to be broken, I’m more than happy to see the club take a key forward at 38 or 56 than follow the trend and reach for one at six. Naughton is best suited at our pick six.


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Is he? I and many others would strongly disagree with that.

 

[TradeDraft]

Josh Battle was a reasonably highly ranked kid who slid to our second pick range in the 2016 draft...will we see a top 20 type slide that far this year?

He was but not a Top 10 like English and Top 5 Like Grundy

 

[TradeDraft]

I went last year, it's good if you're passionate about it but not just for the average supporter who doesn't really know the players.

IF it was in Melbourne I would not mind going to the Draft

 

[sr36]

Not sure what you’re trying to say here, but it’s a coincidence that not many good key forwards are taken late? Bollocks. Good key forwards as a general rule are always taken relatively early because they’re as rare as hens teeth. It has nothing to do with that strange ‘pick history’ scenario you’ve laid out.

I agree with you, but the worm has already begun turning. A higher percentage of early draft picks have been burnt on tall forward prospects than any other player type. In the past, including the very recent past, any tall forward with a half decent chance of making it has gone first round - Weideman, with a far less chance of half decent, went top 10, Boyd, Schache, McArtin, etc.. went top 2. This will change when the lack of results continue to flow in.

With the football world beginning to realise the lesser impact of marking forwards, clubs will stop way overpaying for them, in much the same way that clubs have stopped overpaying for rucks. Thus bargain tall forwards will start appearing. Half decent prospects will start dropping down the order and some of those half decent chances will make it.

 

[DraftBalta]

Disagree, you take the one based on who is better not based on their position. Trends are made to be broken, I’m more than happy to see the club take a key forward at 38 or 56 than follow the trend and reach for one at six. Naughton is best suited at our pick six.

He's the obvious choice if you look at our structure, if we don't take him then Hine didn't rate him or something too good to pass up fell out of the top 5

 

[Apex36]

I agree with you, but the worm has already begun turning. A higher percentage of early draft picks have been burnt on tall forward prospects than any other player type. In the past, including the very recent past, any tall forward with a half decent chance of making it has gone first round - Weideman, with a far less chance of half decent, went top 10, Boyd, Schache, McArtin, etc.. went top 2. This will change when the lack of results continue to flow in.

With the football world beginning to realise the lesser impact of marking forwards, clubs will stop way overpaying for them, in much the same way that clubs have stopped overpaying for rucks. Thus bargain tall forwards will start appearing. Half decent prospects will start dropping down the order and some of those half decent chances will make it.

You could be right, it will be interesting to see what happens. The forwards you’ve listed though are still relatively young and as a general rule they take a few years to develop, so I wouldn’t write any off yet except maybe Boyd.

 

[BPikkers]

I’m expecting us to take Naughton with our first pick. However, I think Freo will take him before us.

 

[Matt_352]

Yeah my gut feel is we will take Naughton if he is there. If thats the case I hope we can grab Wooller at 38

 

[Kirby]

I think that Naughton is by far the best key position prospect and I wouldn't be too dissapointed if we picked him.

His kicking is the only issue although it seems he makes good decisions. His kicks just float a bit.

 

[BPikkers]

I think that Naughton is by far the best key position prospect and I wouldn't be too dissapointed if we picked him.

His kicking is the only issue although it seems he makes good decisions. His kicks just float a bit.

Yeah and ready made. He could possibly play seniors very early

 

[Matt_352]

Would make a pretty good future combo of Naughton and McLarty down back Moore and Lynch up forward