Pick Swap Completed

[Butters Made Me Do It]

For now I'm cautiously optimistic, purely because its evident that we're trying to build a good spine all around the same age to have a good jab at a flag in 3 - 4 years.

Spine is usually 1 centre and 4 KPP. We’re building an exoskeleton

 

[TeeKray]

Melbourne traded a future first, 26 and 50 for Pick 8. They actually DID finish bottom four.

We traded a future first, 29 and 71 for Pick 16, Pick 52, Pick 55 and Pick 70. Which is the equivalent of Pick 9.

These are trades from two clubs who don't expect that they will have a poor season next year.

I'm sure Melbourne thought they wouldn't have a poor season this year either and yet they finished 17th. Things happen. We seem to like future trading more than most. But it's a dicey game to be playing.

 

[portly]

I used to design the software that runs them, they aint rigged. They are 100% random. The reels are just static and set up with fixed combinations that over time will mathematically return only 85-90% to the player. The best option on a pokie machine is the gamble function. It is legitimately a 50/50 random option every time.

They are rigged in the sense that the owner takes out their cut first, and then they are fair, just like the TAB does.

And things must have changed since I wrote my last software since 100% programmable randomness is impossible.

Are the 100% random numbers generated first then run through completely in a semi-random order?

I'm interested.

 

[Zakk Wylde]

Clearly we think next years draft is a steaming pile of stink.

Ollie gets us back in the first round next year anyway.

Let it ride.............

 

[portly]

Well to be fair we don't develop young talls &/or keep them long enough to tell if they are duds.

One of those two talls was lapped in today's St Kilda trial.

 

[Jojay]

I don’t get the outrage about this deal.

Pay forward a first round pick.

Give up pick 29, that we would probably have to use for a player we are committed to anyway.

Get 3 first round picks this year plus Mead.

Trade down for next year then acquire two potential first round picks in Jones and Schofield.

Am i missing somethinf?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You're spot on - Unfortunately the majority on here are just ready to pot the club's strategy, good or bad, irrespective.

 

[chickentendies]

You're spot on - Unfortunately the majority on here are just ready to pot the club's strategy, good or bad, irrespective.

I'm positive about the deal, but the majority on here have sat through a lot of bullshit for at least the past 5 years. The skepticism and pessimism about this regime is extremely valid.

 

[portly]

Parker and Co at present are the only ones I have some faith in at the club, and most of the players. So, as I did in recent years, I'm ok with the gamble. Doing nothing is a gamble - some Crows supporters are most unhappy that they went into last year's trade/draft period with a better hand than us, and hopefully it will be more of the same.

Pleased to see that detractors/supporters are not totally along Pro/Anti Hinkley lines. I REALLY want Hinkley gone, and don't see why many are assuming he won't get past this year. But I am ok with this trade, and am assuming that Hinkley has little input.

Hoping we don't trade down further.

Now I might take some interest in who we might pick!

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Parker still needs to draft a legit key forward to get accolades, its the premiership of recruiting.

 

[Launchpad McQuack]

We don't rate next year's draft but it's all okay because we can trade Wines to get back into the first round.

 

[NEGAN]

With the past 6 years I don't think anyone here thought our list was the issue. More of an underachieving coaching panel.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Perhaps the club knows that it has assets to get back into the first round next year?

 

[CharlieKelly]

Just a quick check on Draftguru

52+55+66+67+68+72=680 points, the equivalent of pick 28 (677 points), minus the 20% discount = 588 points

#28 is about where Mead should go, North Melbourne will probably bid on him with one of their two late 20's picks, they tend to bid on players

And let's not forget, next year's draft will be the most compromised draft in AFL history, I'm betting Western Bulldogs already have pick 1 - Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, he's in their NGA and he's hyped to be the next Buddy

 

[Boxx]

One of those two talls was lapped in today's St Kilda trial.

I have it on good authority that Doug has been training with Toump throughout the preseason in a hope that he impressed his new teammates!

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Perhaps the club knows that it has assets to get back into the first round next year?

You really want Wines at Carlton dont you C4.

On SM-G960F using
BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Schulzenfest]

Melbourne traded a future first, 26 and 50 for Pick 8. They actually DID finish bottom four.

We traded a future first, 29 and 71 for Pick 16, Pick 52, Pick 55 and Pick 70. Which is the equivalent of Pick 9.

These are trades from two clubs who don't expect that they will have a poor season next year.

If we'd gotten pick 8 out of this deal, nobody would be complaining about it. We got pick 16.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

If we'd gotten pick 8 out of this deal, nobody would be complaining about it. We got pick 16.

i would still be complaining but i am averse to future first round risk under this admin

 

[Port83]

Nail this draft and we're sweet going forward. One thing Hinkley got was good seasons out of our first year players. If we bring in one minimum ready to go AFL player, I'll be happy. Two or three and we'll look like geniuses.

 

[Coobk001]

So youre Telling me it's totally 50/50 between who profits and who doesn't??? Between gambler and owner???

You have been to the KH school of BS.

I was talking about the 'gamble' function. When you press that option it is 50/50, and totally random. It's not BS, it's computer programming.

 

[GoTheMightyCrows]

Lets judge the trade in 12 - 24 months time, bitching over and over about it now isn't really going to prove anything - lets just hope we have a decent draft night now.

 

[robbo1981]

Haven't given up on Ollie yet but it's not looking great I will admit that!!

 

[Launchpad McQuack]

Between keeping Hinkley and this trade being worst case scenario (our 2020 first being top 5) I'm still wishing for Hinkley out.

Sack Hinkley.

 

[Coobk001]

They are rigged in the sense that the owner takes out their cut first, and then they are fair, just like the TAB does.

And things must have changed since I wrote my last software since 100% programmable randomness is impossible.

Are the 100% random numbers generated first then run through completely in a semi-random order?

I'm interested.

Depends on the systems. They all have a random number generator and as the play button is pressed most brands take the current time to the microsecond and use that value as the seed for the random number generator to return position numbers for the reels. The reels are static strips in a predefined order that does not change.

I can't remember the mathematical theories involved for the RNG but ALL the machines are tested rigorously to ensure the RNG meet a certain threshold of randomness which is in the >99.5% range.

 

[Coobk001]

I'm cool with this.
No risk, no reward.
Put it all on black.

Last 'All In' was an extension of a failing coach for a record period of time. That went well.

This deal is a failure. The worst part is the wasted 4th rounders we have. 3 points wielding picks completely wasted. If we don't have a plan to trade them out before the draft, our entire efforts to build up those picks over the last 2 year's is a failure.

 

[Coobk001]

Just a quick check on Draftguru

52+55+66+67+68+72=680 points, the equivalent of pick 28 (677 points), minus the 20% discount = 588 points

#28 is about where Mead should go, North Melbourne will probably bid on him with one of their two late 20's picks, they tend to bid on players

And let's not forget, next year's draft will be the most compromised draft in AFL history, I'm betting Western Bulldogs already have pick 1 - Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, he's in their NGA and he's hyped to be the next Buddy

Remove 67, 68 and 72 from your calculations. They aren't usable at the moment.