Strategy Pick trading pre-draft and mid-draft

[TheJackal]

I would be surprised if St Kilda didn't receive another first rounder if they decide to live trade down to 5, 6 or 8.

If Luko and Rozee/Rankine are gone by pick 4 then suddenly pick 5 is shaky and pick 8 is shot unless Crows are happy with Hately.

Alternatively, if all three boys from SA are still on the board at pick 4 then a bidding war comes about with Crows potentially trumping Port for the pick of the SA talent.

St Kilda is floating the idea of taking Rankine, time will tell if that is a bluff or not.

Either way, my post shows that pick 4 is in the ideal spot assuming GC and Carlton don't trade their picks.

Points values mean nothing for these trades this year, I'm expecting a trade similar to 8, 13 & 16 for pick 4 or 5 & 10 for pick 4.

Yes, it's overs in St Kildas favour, but in a live trade it's the player and not the pick we are trading for and the SA clubs will probably think it's worth it

 

[Peel67skin]

I would be surprised if St Kilda didn't receive another first rounder if they decide to live trade down to 5, 6 or 8.

If Luko and Rozee/Rankine are gone by pick 4 then suddenly pick 5 is shaky and pick 8 is shot unless Crows are happy with Hately.

Alternatively, if all three boys from SA are still on the board at pick 4 then a bidding war comes about with Crows potentially trumping Port for the pick of the SA talent.

St Kilda is floating the idea of taking Rankine, time will tell if that is a bluff or not.

Either way, my post shows that pick 4 is in the ideal spot assuming GC and Carlton don't trade their picks.

Points values mean nothing for these trades this year, I'm expecting a trade similar to 8, 13 & 16 for pick 4 or 5 & 10 for pick 4.

Yes, it's overs in St Kildas favour, but in a live trade it's the player and not the pick we are trading for and the SA clubs will probably think it's worth it

Pick 4 possible swap. GC pick 3 ( Rankine or Rozee,)
Adelaide or Port won't sell their farm out for Rozee or Smith . .

GC - 2,3,6,24,29
Adelaide - 8,13,16,21,79 ?
St Kilda - 4,36,46,67
Port - 5,10,15

Possible swap outcome
GC - 2,4,8,16 ,46
Adelaide - 3,21,24,36,67
St Kilda - 6,13,29,73
Or
Adelaide 3,21,24,29
St Kilda 6,13,36,
Assumption GC not taking Rankine at3

Or
GC - 2,3, 4 ,36,46
St Kilda - 6,24,29

Assumption GC taking Lukosius,Rankine and Rozee .
Or
GC 2,3,6,24,29
St Kilda 8,13,16,79
Adelaide 4,36,46,67
Assumption
GC taking Rankine at 3
Or
GC 2,3,6,24,29
Adelaide 8,13,16,21
St Kilda 5,10,46
Port 4, 15,36
Assumption : GC taking Rankine at 3

 

[Iva Bigun]

I would be surprised if St Kilda didn't receive another first rounder if they decide to live trade down to 5, 6 or 8.

If Luko and Rozee/Rankine are gone by pick 4 then suddenly pick 5 is shaky and pick 8 is shot unless Crows are happy with Hately.

Alternatively, if all three boys from SA are still on the board at pick 4 then a bidding war comes about with Crows potentially trumping Port for the pick of the SA talent.

St Kilda is floating the idea of taking Rankine, time will tell if that is a bluff or not.

Either way, my post shows that pick 4 is in the ideal spot assuming GC and Carlton don't trade their picks.

Points values mean nothing for these trades this year, I'm expecting a trade similar to 8, 13 & 16 for pick 4 or 5 & 10 for pick 4.

Yes, it's overs in St Kildas favour, but in a live trade it's the player and not the pick we are trading for and the SA clubs will probably think it's worth it

I think 5 and 10 would get pick 3 and guarantee Port Rankine

 

[BLOODSTAR]

I don't see us trading p5 and p10 to move up a spot or two, the opinion that we are desperate to get SA i feel has been pushed to far. We don't actually have a bad track record at keeping players from out of state, right now it's SA boys we are having trouble with. 5 gets us 1 of 4 players M.King, B.Smith, I.Rankine or C.Rozee, if rank or smith fall to p5 i believe that's who we are taking. the only move up i believe we will take to move up is p6 for p10 and a future 1st plus other pick swaps. As GC don't need more picks in this draft and would probs be happy to have 3 1st next year, plus 10 is till quite a chance to get J.Caldwell if the rumours are to be believed.

I think if Smith and Rank are there at 5,6 we may give up a bit more to get 6 from GC. If it's just the Kings and rozee left at 5, I wouldn't mind risking it and going after M.King and hoping B.King might drop to 10 to snag the Twin Towers which would be a great pickup.

 

[Peel67skin]

I don't see us trading p5 and p10 to move up a spot or two, the opinion that we are desperate to get SA i feel has been pushed to far. We don't actually have a bad track record at keeping players from out of state, right now it's SA boys we are having trouble with. 5 gets us 1 of 4 players M.King, B.Smith, I.Rankine or C.Rozee, if rank or smith fall to p5 i believe that's who we are taking. the only move up i believe we will take to move up is p6 for p10 and a future 1st plus other pick swaps. As GC don't need more picks in this draft and would probs be happy to have 3 1st next year, plus 10 is till quite a chance to get J.Caldwell if the rumours are to be believed.

I think if Smith and Rank are there at 5,6 we may give up a bit more to get 6 from GC. If it's just the Kings and rozee left at 5, I wouldn't mind risking it and going after M.King and hoping B.King might drop to 10 to snag the Twin Towers which would be a great pickup.

That's the way to do it .

 

[Strahany]

For obvious reasons, Gold Coast currently hold the strongest draft hand when it comes to leveraging the SA clubs for Lukosius/Rankine/Rozee. If they take the King twins, then that severely harms St Kilda's position since Port (at pick 5) know that no matter which player the Saints take, there will be two of the SA boys available. In that situation, Adelaide or Port may push to secure pick 6 from GC in order to ensure they nail one of the three.

If GC take the two best SA kids (seemingly Lukosius and Rankine) then I can't see any trade being done for St Kilda's pick 4. Telling Port that they'd pick Rozee is a complete bluff when Max King and Bailey Smith are still available, so the Power would be more than content in calling said bluff.

The other floated scenario is that GC take the friends (Lukosius and Rozee) due to keeping them together for improved happiness at the club, and to avoid Rankine who seems to be the biggest flight risk of the three. In that situation, this leaves Rankine at 4 and opens up a bit of a stare down between St Kilda and Port. Could the Saints convince Port that they're going to take Rankine, lest they trade? Or even that they'll do a deal with Adelaide unless Port accept an offer? Hell, even Gold Coast could come forward and try to nab pick 4 in order to get all three of the SA boys.
In reality, I can't see St Kilda accepting a trade from Adelaide when their best pick (8) would eliminate the chance of Rankine/M.King/Smith unless someone slides. Even if Adelaide stacked the offer with 13+16, the club would have to have supreme confidence in their drafting (which, apart from Gresham, and the unknown factors in Clark and Coffield has been questionable, at best). I could see them pushing for 5+10 or 5+15 from Port, but I don't think the Power would be too keen on paying so much unless they're convinced St Kilda would accept a trade from Adelaide. Such a strategy would require a big offer from Adelaide, which is, itself, predicated on their belief that Port will offer a trade.

I think we won't see any moves in the top ~6 picks until the time of the pick on draft night, itself. Whilst we know that the top handful are extremely talented and largely even, different clubs will value the players differently, so knowing exactly who is available (or, perhaps, more pertinently who is not available) will dictate the price. For example, I can't see Port (and maybe even Adelaide) offering a big trade for pick 4 when the best SA kid available could be Rozee (who should reach pick 5, or perhaps even 8 if there's a late bolter). On the other hand, if they wait until draft night and GC take Luko + Rozee, then the trade for pick 4 would come at a large premium since they're not trading for pick 4, they're trading for Rankine who is (arguably) the best talent in the draft - an effective pick 1 in any other year.

 

[kotor]

Thoughts,

Gold Coast’s pick 2 for Port’s 5 and 10!

Port get the pick of the SA boys.

Leaves Gold Coast with 3,5,6 and 10.

Max King at 3, Smith at 5, Ben King at 6, and Cardwell/another mid at 10. Get both King boys for retention issues/reset their spine, plus 2 quality mids to address their lack of depth!

 

[BLOODSTAR]

Thoughts,

Gold Coast’s pick 2 for Port’s 5 and 10!

Port get the pick of the SA boys.

Leaves Gold Coast with 3,5,6 and 10.

Max King at 3, Smith at 5, Ben King at 6, and Cardwell/another mid at 10. Get both King boys for retention issues/reset their spine, plus 2 quality mids to address their lack of depth!

Seeing as the only have 4 picks, we would probably request both their picks in the 20's that they can't use then

 

[old55]

So there must be a rule that if you match a bid with later picks you can't then trade in a pick (say with future picks) before that first later pick?

 

[Lore]

Have we actually heard how draft night trading will work yet?

I’m not sure if I read it somewhere or just dreamt it, but I think they’ve extended the time between picks to five minutes, which would possibly work similarly to father/son or academy bidding? So a club selects a player and the other clubs can then trade for that player in the next five minutes after they're drafted before it locks in and they move on to the next pick.

The main difference between this version of live trading and f/s or academy bidding would be that the trades would typically require the trading club to pay overs and the original club to agree to the trade.

If this is the case, Port will know exactly who St Kilda are taking with their pick before deciding whether to trade or not.

 

[goodie23]

Have we actually heard how draft night trading will work yet?

I’m not sure if I read it somewhere or just dreamt it, but I think they’ve extended the time between picks to five minutes, which would possibly work similarly to father/son or academy bidding? So a club selects a player and the other clubs can then trade for that player in the next five minutes after they're drafted before it locks in and they move on to the next pick.

The main difference between this version of live trading and f/s or academy bidding would be that the trades would typically require the trading club to pay overs and the original club to agree to the trade.

If this is the case, Port will know exactly who St Kilda are taking with their pick before deciding whether to trade or not.

Apparently we're following the American model of being 'on the clock'.

"HOW DOES LIVE TRADING WORK IN THE AFL DRAFT
Now the rules have changed so trades involving draft picks only can continue right up to the draft in November — including during the event itself.

It means a club with a late pick can do a deal with a lower-placed team to move up the order.

This could come into play early in this year’s draft with Adelaide desperate to deal for early selections it can use on South Australian young guns Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankine.

Both players are expected to be taken before the Crows’ first selection, currently pick seven. But if either is still available when St Kilda has its first pick, for example, the Crows could make an offer to the Saints in a bid to jump up the order.

Players cannot be traded under the new rules but clubs can trade current or future picks to get deals done. Trades must be completed before a selection is made — once a player’s name is read out they are locked in and cannot be traded."

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/d678808f1816abaa907c325004e6af48

 

[Lore]

Apparently we're following the American model of being 'on the clock'.

"HOW DOES LIVE TRADING WORK IN THE AFL DRAFT
Now the rules have changed so trades involving draft picks only can continue right up to the draft in November — including during the event itself.

It means a club with a late pick can do a deal with a lower-placed team to move up the order.

This could come into play early in this year’s draft with Adelaide desperate to deal for early selections it can use on South Australian young guns Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankine.

Both players are expected to be taken before the Crows’ first selection, currently pick seven. But if either is still available when St Kilda has its first pick, for example, the Crows could make an offer to the Saints in a bid to jump up the order.

Players cannot be traded under the new rules but clubs can trade current or future picks to get deals done. Trades must be completed before a selection is made — once a player’s name is read out they are locked in and cannot be traded."

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/d678808f1816abaa907c325004e6af48

Ah, that's kinda lame.

 

[Mitchell54]

Have we actually heard how draft night trading will work yet?

I’m not sure if I read it somewhere or just dreamt it, but I think they’ve extended the time between picks to five minutes, which would possibly work similarly to father/son or academy bidding? So a club selects a player and the other clubs can then trade for that player in the next five minutes after they're drafted before it locks in and they move on to the next pick.

The main difference between this version of live trading and f/s or academy bidding would be that the trades would typically require the trading club to pay overs and the original club to agree to the trade.

If this is the case, Port will know exactly who St Kilda are taking with their pick before deciding whether to trade or not.

You can’t trade for a player if I’ve heard right. Once a player is picked then that’s that. E.g once Carlton picks Walsh. He’s a Carlton player.

I believe you have to trade for a pick before anyone is selected with it.

 

[perplexed]

Ah, that's kinda lame.

Your dream was definitely more fun.

 

[Suma Magic]

So there must be a rule that if you match a bid with later picks you can't then trade in a pick (say with future picks) before that first later pick?

No rule of this type as yet.

 

[marty36]

I would be surprised if St Kilda didn't receive another first rounder if they decide to live trade down to 5, 6 or 8.

If Luko and Rozee/Rankine are gone by pick 4 then suddenly pick 5 is shaky and pick 8 is shot unless Crows are happy with Hately.

Alternatively, if all three boys from SA are still on the board at pick 4 then a bidding war comes about with Crows potentially trumping Port for the pick of the SA talent.

St Kilda is floating the idea of taking Rankine, time will tell if that is a bluff or not.

Either way, my post shows that pick 4 is in the ideal spot assuming GC and Carlton don't trade their picks.

Points values mean nothing for these trades this year, I'm expecting a trade similar to 8, 13 & 16 for pick 4 or 5 & 10 for pick 4.

Yes, it's overs in St Kildas favour, but in a live trade it's the player and not the pick we are trading for and the SA clubs will probably think it's worth it

I think posters are getting a little carried away, Cripps called it, that it can be easier to sway a player to come home in a couple of years time, the first two years will be development only so no benefit to the drafting club, and when hes maturing get him out of contract and everyone is aware they never go for real value unless in contract, and always get to where they want to go anyway

Not sure Port or Adelaide would concern themselves as much as people are suggesting, they climbed the draft this year as it is predicted to be a super draft regardless of where the player is from.

 

[Drewie11]

We have our first pick swap



Geelong swap pick 59 and 60 to Collingwood for pick 51

 

[Peel67skin]

I think posters are getting a little carried away, Cripps called it, that it can be easier to sway a player to come home in a couple of years time, the first two years will be development only so no benefit to the drafting club, and when hes maturing get him out of contract and everyone is aware they never go for real value unless in contract, and always get to where they want to go anyway

Not sure Port or Adelaide would concern themselves as much as people are suggesting, they climbed the draft this year as it is predicted to be a super draft regardless of where the player is from.

I actually don't mind it , Adelaide and Port still need to trade or let go players , players at 5,8,10,13,15,16 pick by Adelaide /Port could all be use as trade bait like Burton in 4 years time .

 

[FIGJAM]

Geelong swap pick 59 and 60 to Collingwood for pick 51

Should probably spark up a thread asking who won the trade.

I'm going to argue that it was us based on quantity over quality.

 

[Drewie11]

Should probably spark up a thread asking who won the trade.

I'm going to argue that it was us based on quantity over quality.

Good move by you guys for the extra points if needed

 

[eastfreo75]

Should probably spark up a thread asking who won the trade.

I'm going to argue that it was us based on quantity over quality.

Good trade for both.

 

[eastfreo75]

With the Cats swaping picks 51 for 59 and 60. I have a few ideas to do trade for mutual benefits.

Pick 31 Dockers and 43 for Dogs pick pick 27 and future 3rd.

Pick 31 Dockers and 43 for Swans pick 26 and future 3rd. Rather do the Dogs.

pick 31 Dockers for Swans pick 33 and future 4th.

Pick 31 Dockers for Dogs 32 and future 4th.

pick 43 Dockers for 45 Dogs and future 4th.

Others might have better ideas?

 

[TedDougChris]

With the Cats swaping picks 51 for 59 and 60. I have a few ideas to do trade for mutual benefits.

Pick 31 Dockers and 43 for Dogs pick pick 27 and future 3rd.

Pick 31 Dockers and 43 for Swans pick 26 and future 3rd. Rather do the Dogs.

pick 31 Dockers for Swans pick 33 and future 4th.

Pick 31 Dockers for Dogs 32 and future 4th.

pick 43 Dockers for 45 Dogs and future 4th.

Others might have better ideas?

We have West and a NGA kid (Khumis) that we will need to match bids on between about pick 20 to 60, plus more next year. I suspect we may be open/not open to deals based on where we expect these to fall...

 

[Obeanie1]

Given you probably need to set picks aside for Tim Kelly next year, that will not happen.

Eagles 2019 1st wont be used but the 2nd could be IMO.

 

[footyfan1978]

Delusional