Player comparison thread

[Colin D'Cops]

With someone like franklin, I personally prefer to have a proven DTer as my starting premium who i know can perform - not someone who has been at the top for one year (although there are exceptions)

So do I, but there's a heap of people out there that don't even have a look at past scores, judge purely on the year ahead with just preseason form & fitness the main factors and they do extremely well.

What most of us on this forum do sounds good in theory, but in reality, it isn't overly successful.

 

[LemmingMaster]

The which AFL discard will step up?

Davenport V Thomson V Hislop V Begley V Shaw

 

[Tippaz]

I have to agree with you dazza wyatt. I was looking through the top ranked FWs and i didnt see anything definate other than pavlich:

Nick Riewoldt:

Matthew Pavlich:

Matthew Richardson:

Brett Deledio:

Lance Franklin:

Alan Didak:

Daniel Giansiracusa:

Paul Chapman:

Steve Johnson:

Nathan g Brown:

Jonathan Brown:

RYAN O'KEEFE

Brad Johnson-like durability !!!

 

[Tippaz]

The which AFL discard will step up?

Davenport V Thomson V Hislop V Begley V Shaw

given Port Adelaide's recent success with discards i'm quite excited about Davenport's prospects next year as a min wager.

 

[Lakey91]

RYAN O'KEEFE Brad Johnson-like durability !!!

Yes ryan Okeefe is another option - very very very consistent and although the stats dont show it i think he had of a bit of quite year in 2008 and would expect him to step up and bounce back again. I dont know what it was but the spotlight didnt seem to be on him as much - maybe barry halls antics meant he wasnt really talked about. I think he is probably a little but undervalued in that he could easily average 90 next year. One to think about.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

given Port Adelaide's recent success with discards i'm quite excited about Davenport's prospects next year as a min wager.

Yeah he's looking like a good pickup ATM, will be that attacking defender at Port if he gets games they need someone to help out Burgoyne. Would be great if he was named in backline but VFL positioning suggests otherwise. Hopefully VS considers Choco's comments!

 

[Lakey91]

Richard Douglas v Alwyn Davey

 

[Schulzenfest]

The which AFL discard will step up?

Davenport V Thomson V Hislop V Begley V Shaw

This one wasn't really done so I'll do it.

Davenport has been one of the best players in the VFL for two years and had he been at any other club would've almost certainly got games by now. Coming to Port certainly gives him a big chance to make an impact, and our history with picks like this is basically good. At a bargain basement price, he'd be a good bench option.

Thomson will get the chance he deserved at Port now that he's moved to Richmond. He has the potential to at the very least deliver Daniel Harris like numbers, considering he is pretty much a Daniel Harris clone. Richmond's continuing improvement will only be good for him. But he's in the awkward price range where he's too expensive to not be a keeper (especially in the midfield) and probably won't score high enough to be a keeper (especially in the midfield). But if for whatever reason he gets moved to another position (there is about a 0.000000001% chance of this happening) jump on.

Hislop would be a much better choice had Thomson not already been picked up, as they both play inside roles and Thomson is probably ahead of Hislop (obviously I'm biased having seen Thomson play for Port). But at his price, if the Tigers get a few injuries or he has a good preseason, he'd be well worth the risk. A change of environment can do wonders for players who have talent but not the right attitude.

I won't pretend to know anything about Begley, but I will say that small defenders for the Saints have a history of good DT scores (Goddard, Gram, Fisher, R Clarke) so jump on if you think they'll have a good effect.

Shaw is someone I would definitely not consider. He probably reached his fantasy peak last year, and someone who averaged 85 and is now moving to the DT killers Sydney is not a good sign. Avoid.

Someone else do Douglas v Davey. I personally wouldn't want either.

 

[Walesy]

Back on topic.

Adam McPhee or Beau Waters.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Back on topic.

Adam McPhee or Beau Waters.

These are two players which are on my radar.

Beau Waters - He looked like he was about to step up to the mark last year in terms of DT scoring. His averages were on the way up 53, 66, 78...68.

So his average dropped down 10ppg, living in W.A, I've watched a heap of Eagles games and Waters has a crash and bash styled game plan. He is prone to injuries and suspension. He has the potential to improve, I just think there might be more reliable options at that price.

Adam McPhee his averages seem to go up and down. How is this for a pattern 76, 84, 78, 89, 75, ? Could he keep this trend of raising his average every odd year up into the 80's?

I think he really struggled DT wise, without Lucas, I think with Lucas coming back and maybe some more focal points up forward, McPhee has the potential to increase his scoring once again.

Missed 4 games in the last 3 years, so he has shown to be rather durable.

I would highly consider him next year.

 

[Walesy]

This *is* fun!

How would these two go heads up-

Battle of the 2nd yearers
Scott Selwood v David Myers

 

[Schulzenfest]

Myers definitely the better option there. Would already be in the Bombers best 22, whereas Selwood would barely be in the Eagles top 30. Plus he was an absolute ball magnet at junior level, and has shown some decent form at AFL level. The only issue is the fact that he suffered two separate injuries last year, but I'd still much rather have Myers.

Cousins v Haselby v Sam Butler

 

[Daz]

Cousins v Haselby v Sam Butler

Tough one, I guess we're assuming Cousins is allowed to be taken by Richmond.


Sam Butler

Age: 23
Draft: #20 (2003)
Fanplanner Price: $291,400

Scoring History

2004: 48
2005: 50
2006: 82
2007: 0
2008: 61

Durability History

2004: 12
2005: 14
2006: 14
2007: 0
2008: 5


Ben Cousins

Age: 30
Draft: F/S (1995)
Fanplanner Price: 252,600

Scoring History

2003: 78
2004: 78
2005: 96
2006: 95
2007: 91
2008: 0

Durability History

2003: 23
2004: 17
2005: 24
2006: 22
2007: 6
2008: 0


Paul Haselby

Age: 27
Draft: #2 (1999)
Fanplanner Price: $230,400

Scoring History

2003: 93
2004: 92
2005: 80
2006: 75
2007: 83
2008: 0

Durability History

2003: 23
2004: 22
2005: 22
2006: 16
2007: 20
2008: 0


Summary

Let me start off by awarding Butler with 3rd place. Not that I don't see him as an exciting prospect but he the most expensive player, the most injury prone and arguably has the least scoring potential.

So now down to the question that will be asked 1000 times this pre-season - Cousins vs Haselby. Let's try to break down the important things we need to look at. Price wise Cousins is 20k more expensive, no big deal.

Looking at durability neither are exceptional but up until the last year (or two for Cuz) neither have missed signifigant chunks of footy. I see the injury risk as being pretty equal between the two. From the limited time I've spent looking at it, to be able to overcome a knee reco it helps if you are young and a midfielder (try telling Mark Coughlan that!). So in that aspect Hase is OK. People have made a big deal about Cousins' hamstrings but I think Hase is just as likely to do one.

Still we don't have an answer. Next up is scoring potential. It's been 4 seasons since Haselby has averaged over 90, whereas Cousins did it in '05, '06 and '07. The big advantage for Cousins is he was a part of the WCE midfield which pulled similar numbers to the Cats mids. But it's not all bad for Cousins, he is (probably) going to Richmond who play a very DT friendly high possession game so no issues there. Haselby on the other hand returns to a midfield in shambles led by an 18 year old. When Hase returns he will be greeted by the #1 tag which is not good for any DT'er. For this reason I give Cousins the edge over Haselby but not by much. For the record before I wrote this up I was leaning towards Haselby it's that close.

 

[Daz]

Next up is Franklin vs Riewoldt vs SJ vs Didak vs Gia

 

[Schulzenfest]

Dids will probably be a midfielder so I'd eliminate him.

Franklin could be absolutely anything. He probably has the most scoring potential out of any forward in the game. But there is the possibility that opponents will eventually figure him out and his average could drop. Personally I see Franklin as an upgrade target rather than someone I want to start with, because he has plenty of bogey teams (I plan on hoping Lucas or Higgins and a rookie will shoot up in price before Round 6-7, because Lance has shit records against most of the first 6 teams the Hawks play but then has Essendon) and depending on the coach he can get double or triple-teamed. Roughead and Willo can also steal points of him at times. My opinion is partly influenced by the fact that he didn't look like dropping much at all this year so I traded him in, he then proceeded to drop about 100k in the next four weeks. I suck badly at trades. He's also fairly durable, but does have carryover points which could lead to the slightest indiscretion getting him suspended. His shoulders could be a worry, but the fact that he kept playing despite the injury shows that unless something really bad happens Clarko won't rest him.

Riewoldt is someone who I think could improve on his average of around 100. A big deal was made in the media about the fact that he was strapped up a lot at the start of the year and then when the straps came off his form significantly improved, both in AFL and DT terms. IIRC he was only averaging about 80 when I brought him in to my team, and he ended the season on 99 which shows that he was racking up massive scores during that time. Is consistent and durable, and is fighting Pavlich for a spot in my 22. I had Pavlich before, but after this write-up I think I might go back to Roo. I think he could average 105-110

If you want someone where you know exactly what you're getting, go with SJ. Will probably average 95 give or take a few points, since his suspension early in '07 he's played every game and will probably do the same this year, and the probable end of the score assists bet could net him a few more 6 point scores over the year. Good option.

Gia I'm not sold on. He has a lot of past injury worries with his knees (although he has played every game in '07 and '08) and has only been getting premium scores for a year. There's every chance that he will continue with the form he's showed this year, but I personally would consider SJ a safer bet who also saves you a few thousand bucks. You never know when that could come in handy throughout the season, I once had a trade I wanted to do last year but was $200 short.

They're all good options, but for your starting line up my order would be
1. Riewoldt
2. SJ
3. Franklin
4. Gia

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Ok next how about........
Boak v Knights v Lewis v Lockyer v Kerr

 

[chadleverington]

Ok next how about........
Boak v Knights v Lewis v Lockyer v Kerr

In order i would find it hard to split Boak/Lewis for top 2, then knights, then Lockyer then Kerr.

Boak is a gun, and should improve hopefully, but will he be a top 6? probably not, so might need to upgrade. Lewis similar story, wont be top 6, but scores well. Lewis does have a bit of a mental problem though, likes to get suspended (of which he still has 90 carry over points).

Knights has great potential (if he can stay on the park). Lockyer is getting on a bit and not sure if he will start getting reduced time and Kerr is injured a fair bit and will now have the #1 tag.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

^^ i rate Boak ahead of Lewis, but i have a likening to Boak i think as i mistakingly thought he would out score Giibs in 08. Lewis is also a little hot headed as we all know. Would expect more games from Boak than Lewis. Also Boak should really improve towards the end of the year and he can also produce big scores.

 

[adam10]

Joel Macdonald...

 

[Schulzenfest]

Joel Macdonald and ... ?

 

[adam10]

Joel Macdonald and ... ?

Joel Maconald/ Rick Ladson/ Grant Birchall

 

[Schulzenfest]

Grant Birchall wins by so much it's not funny. For the other two Macdonald is the higher risk/higher reward option.

Ladson averaged 75 the last two years and I see no reason for that to change. Plus he's pretty durable, although not in the elite durability category.

Macdonald has upside, but is extremely injury prone. If he can stay injury free he could average 80, which IIRC he was at some stage this season, so IMO he has a higher ceiling than Ladson but Ladson would be safer.

Playing it safe
1. Birchall
2. Ladson
3. Macdonald

Taking a risk
1. Birchall
2. Macdonald
3. Ladson

 

[Lakey91]

That was a bit of a jumbled reply gopower!

I would rate:

Birchal
Ladson
McDonald

I actually had Ladson on my 'one to watch' list for 2009 DT in late 2008, but his finals series just put me off completely...Birchal is the man IMO

 

[Schulzenfest]

That was a bit of a jumbled reply gopower!

Cleared it up a bit now

 

[Lakey91]

Cleared it up a bit now

Cheers mate! Mighta been just me though - been a long day and its hot....but thanks anyway...

EDIT:

Corey Enright v Chad Cornes