Player comparison thread

[Daz]

Watch them both in preseason. Too hard to tell the team formation of hawks at this stage for mcglynn - maybe have a look on the hawks board for their 'best 22' thread. I like mcglynn, but injuries and uncertian place on team do worry me. Cousins looks to be a lock for most people, but i think his hammys are very very very very risky.

Swan v Kane Cornes

Kane. For the past 3 years Swan has averaged around the same number of points per game. If Kane can return to his '07 numbers then he is a better DT'er. Kane is a bit more consistent so Swan could be picked up later in the year. Hard to split the two but Kane gets the edge for his little bit of upside.

 

[chadleverington]

Kane. For the past 3 years Swan has averaged around the same number of points per game. If Kane can return to his '07 numbers then he is a better DT'er. Kane is a bit more consistent so Swan could be picked up later in the year. Hard to split the two but Kane gets the edge for his little bit of upside.

That plus he is cheaper too and the most durable in the AFL.

 

[Lakey91]

I find it so hard to split them

He could average five more than kane, and since he will be my captain often for the first 5-6 rounds does this change his value?

I know its been discussed, but what about ports crowded MF?

Yeh swan has no improvement in him (probably) but the locked in average of 102 seems appealing.

Also, looking at final team with priddis and gibbs in my team already (at this very early stage), i would probably not get swan but try and get ABC.

Maybe trying to get ABC with those three is aiming too high though...

 

[Daz]

How about Riewoldt vs Franklin.

 

[chadleverington]

I know its been discussed, but what about ports crowded MF?

Taggers are Kane and sometimes Cassisi. I don't see that as overly crowded .

 

[Lakey91]

How about Riewoldt vs Franklin.

Both can be picked up cheaper during season, but if i had to choose id choose riewoldt - proven over long term ability to be a top FW premium, buddys only been there for one year. Though buddy has lots of updside (if he can kick straighter) this is risky.

For me roo almost always starts slowly so i will wait, and franklins standard deviation is high meaning he can probably be picked up cheaper during season too. I prefer Pav or SJ.

 

[54Dogs]

Both can be picked up cheaper during season, but if i had to choose id choose riewoldt - proven over long term ability to be a top FW premium, buddys only been there for one year. Though buddy has lots of updside (if he can kick straighter) this is risky.

For me roo almost always starts slowly so i will wait, and franklins standard deviation is high meaning he can probably be picked up cheaper during season too. I prefer Pav or SJ.

Nice points Lakey.

Franklin and Roo both had 7 games (plus 2 finals) under 85 this year where as Pav only had 2 games under 85. There will be good chances to trade the first 2 in because of their higher price fluctuations. Buddy's flew under the radar this year because of his lower starting price but starting with an average of 96 he will fluctuate.

SJ also had 11 games under 85 but his average (and price) are boosted by 2 games of 164 and 173. Interesting he only had 4 games over 100 for the season but is priced at 91.

 

[lifelike_]

Watch them both in preseason. Too hard to tell the team formation of hawks at this stage for mcglynn - maybe have a look on the hawks board for their 'best 22' thread. I like mcglynn, but injuries and uncertian place on team do worry me. Cousins looks to be a lock for most people, but i think his hammys are very very very very risky.

Swan v Kane Cornes

I'd take Swan, despite the interrupted pre-season.

Despite Cornes' average giving the impression that he had a down year, he had exactly the same amount of ball this year as he did in last year's H&A season. The key differences between the two years is the kick to handball ratio, which dropped from 1.1:1 last year to 0.7:1 this year, as well as averaging one mark less per game. It doesn't seem like much, but it all adds up.

Those stats suggest a slightly more inside role this year, and with Port's good depth when it comes players capable of playing an outside role, I can't see him improving all that much next year, let alone reaching an average of 105+.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Today, ive just started to doubt G.Birchall. Probably not doubt him to be a dtmer but doubt his scope of improvment and to avg 85, thus increasing his avg by 6 in 09. For him to fo this he would need to score alot more 100's. He only scored 1 hundred in 2008 and it was only just over (105). I also doubt his scope of improvment due to him playing for 3 solid seasons now and only his highest score is 116. So i cant see him improving that avg to 85. To not have a score over 116 is very disappointing for a plyer who plays outside and does plenty of chip to chip, kicking and marking. Also he doesnt lay many tackles and doesnt look like this will change for any reason in 09. He is still a good pick and could very well avg 80 in his own right and play 22 games like he has done in his last 2 years but i doubt his ceiling.

Its interesting to note that the avg per round to win DT was 2051 this year each round/week. To get this avg each week you require every player to avg 89 (Capt included). Thus i think G.Birchall is well under this but everyone knows the players such as a Bartel or Cox or anyone avg over 98 can account for Birchall. I also see plenty of other good selections at a simialr price with players their having a much higher ceiling and scope for improvment.

 

[Lakey91]

Birchall scored over 80, 14 times in the home and away season and i think he can continue to build on that and turn a few of those into hundreds. He also plateaued in his third year - many outside players do this before breaking out again in their fourth year.

Gram and buckley also stand out at that price though.

Any chance of buckley getting a tag though?

I like the look of gram.

 

[Modra93]

I'd take Swan, despite the interrupted pre-season.

Despite Cornes' average giving the impression that he had a down year, he had exactly the same amount of ball this year as he did in last year's H&A season. The key differences between the two years is the kick to handball ratio, which dropped from 1.1:1 last year to 0.7:1 this year, as well as averaging one mark less per game. It doesn't seem like much, but it all adds up.

Those stats suggest a slightly more inside role this year, and with Port's good depth when it comes players capable of playing an outside role, I can't see him improving all that much next year, let alone reaching an average of 105+.

Port only play Sydney once this year, which will help Kornes, two of his 4 poor (sub 80) scores were against them (75 and 67), they other two were in back to back weeks when they got flogged by Geelong and then a close one against Richmond. The addition of Josh Carr brings another tough nut to the Port midfield which should help Kornes. I'm expecting Port to be a big improver this year and I think Kane will be able to score 100-110

 

[Bond.ShaneBond]

Birchall scored over 80, 14 times in the home and away season and i think he can continue to build on that and turn a few of those into hundreds. He also plateaued in his third year - many outside players do this before breaking out again in their fourth year.

Gram and buckley also stand out at that price though.

Any chance of buckley getting a tag though?

I like the look of gram.

If you are talking about Melbourne's Buckley he would only get tagged at VFL level. I think he is a part-time butcher and brings that profession to footy when he kicks.

 

[Lakey91]

If you are talking about Melbourne's Buckley he would only get tagged at VFL level. I think he is a part-time butcher and brings that profession to footy when he kicks.

I havent seen him play too many games, maybe 3-4, but he appears to set up play and provide great run and carry.

 

[Daz]

I havent seen him play too many games, maybe 3-4, but he appears to set up play and provide great run and carry.

Yeah, he runs and carries, but then he gets caught trying to do too much. I'm glad someone has actually mentioned he's not a great footballer. He's flashy but has a lot of work to do.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

^^ high ceiling, great finish to year, good dtmer, high scope of improvment, in a side that can only get better which will benefit him.

Im going to be tossing
Buckley vs Birchall vs Gram up and may take 2 of them similar to Waters vs Birchall vs Gilbvee last year.

 

[Daz]

^^ high ceiling, great finish to year, good dtmer, high scope of improvment, in a side that can only get better which will benefit him.

Im going to be tossing
Buckley vs Birchall vs Gram up and may take 2 of them similar to Waters vs Birchall vs Gilbvee last year.

Geez, you must really love your DT

Seriously though, why would you pick a player who is not guaranteed a spot in the team?

 

[Lakey91]

^^ high ceiling, great finish to year, good dtmer, high scope of improvment, in a side that can only get better which will benefit him.

Im going to be tossing
Buckley vs Birchall vs Gram up and may take 2 of them similar to Waters vs Birchall vs Gilbvee last year.

Great comparison DWD - Gram v Buckley v Birchall

Very very hard to differentiate, but i would say:

Gram
Birchall
Buckley

Really hard though as i think buckley could improve a fair bit, but so could goddard who averaged 91 over last 8 rounds of 2008. Both probably have a higher ceiling than birchall, but birchalls consistency and durability is great too.

 

[Virgil]

Today, ive just started to doubt G.Birchall. Probably not doubt him to be a dtmer but doubt his scope of improvment and to avg 85, thus increasing his avg by 6 in 09. For him to fo this he would need to score alot more 100's. He only scored 1 hundred in 2008 and it was only just over (105).

Birchall scored three hundreds in 2008;

105 against Collingwood in Round 18,
104 against St. Kilda in the preliminary final, and
109 against Geelong in the grand final

I also doubt his scope of improvment due to him playing for 3 solid seasons now and only his highest score is 116.

Considering he's only played about 65 senior games, I think there is fair room for improvement. Most players don't really blossom into DT'ers by their third season unless they are out-and-out midfielders.

He is still a good pick and could very well avg 80 in his own right and play 22 games like he has done in his last 2 years but i doubt his ceiling.

I think Hodge could help Birchall's chances of securing a higher average. Assuming that Hodge/Guerra receive more attention than Birchall, it would be fair to conclude that he probably won't be tagged. If you take out the two matches in 2008 in which Birchall was tagged (Round 11 vs Essendon and Round 13 vs North Melbourne, there may have been more, not sure) then his average for the season (finals included) is 84.5, which is just about on the 85 you were after.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Geez, you must really love your DT

Seriously though, why would you pick a player who is not guaranteed a spot in the team?

Sick mind

Are you referring to Buckley i think he is a definite in the melbourne side and a great midfielder. Could play the wing and HBF really well.

 

[Lakey91]

Birchall scored three hundreds in 2008;

105 against Collingwood in Round 18,
104 against St. Kilda in the preliminary final, and
109 against Geelong in the grand final

Considering he's only played about 65 senior games, I think there is fair room for improvement. Most players don't really blossom into DT'ers by their third season unless they are out-and-out midfielders.

I think Hodge could help Birchall's chances of securing a higher average. Assuming that Hodge/Guerra receive more attention than Birchall, it would be fair to conclude that he probably won't be tagged. If you take out the two matches in 2008 in which Birchall was tagged (Round 11 vs Essendon and Round 13 vs North Melbourne, there may have been more, not sure) then his average for the season (finals included) is 84.5, which is just about on the 85 you were after.

Great post virgil. Summed up nicely. It is for these reasons that i will probably pick birchall. He can became a great keeper for 380k.

 

[Daz]

Great post virgil. Summed up nicely. It is for these reasons that i will probably pick birchall. He can became a great keeper for 380k.

Ok great. Now let's never speak of his name until March when the teams are locked in yeah? Slips under the radar because he doesn't produce the huge scores but that doesn't mean he has no upside.

 

[sante]

Ok great. Now let's never speak of his name until March when the teams are locked in yeah? Slips under the radar because he doesn't produce the huge scores but that doesn't mean he has no upside.

I don't like picking players in my starting squad in consecutive years (excluding the likes of Cox, BJ, etc.) for some weird reason.

Birchall was in my squad last year and is once again on the radar.

 

[Lakey91]

Ok great. Now let's never speak of his name until March when the teams are locked in yeah? Slips under the radar because he doesn't produce the huge scores but that doesn't mean he has no upside.

Yes! Nice...weather...today wasnt it???

Just thought id share something i found on chad.

He starts the year very well - well enough to be a captain option IMO.

Averaged 108 through first 5 rounds in 2008
Averaged 101 through first 6 rounds in 2007Averaged 102 through first 6 rounds in 2006

Especially if you nave cox too, you probably wouldnt need A/B/C or Swan for first few rounds.

 

[longytap]

I'd take Swan, despite the interrupted pre-season.

Despite Cornes' average giving the impression that he had a down year, he had exactly the same amount of ball this year as he did in last year's H&A season. The key differences between the two years is the kick to handball ratio, which dropped from 1.1:1 last year to 0.7:1 this year, as well as averaging one mark less per game. It doesn't seem like much, but it all adds up.

Those stats suggest a slightly more inside role this year, and with Port's good depth when it comes players capable of playing an outside role, I can't see him improving all that much next year, let alone reaching an average of 105+.

The fact Port were a top four side in 07, and dropped to bottom of the ladder in 08 would have to of impacted on kanes scores would'nt it?

 

[54Dogs]

The fact Port were a top four side in 07, and dropped to bottom of the ladder in 08 would have to of impacted on kanes scores would'nt it?

Didn't hurt big Cox.