Poll: Expectations for 2026

[Duck Farmer]

We're no chance without Ken.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

It is very, very difficult to give expectations when our Head Coach hasn't actually said a word which is starting to get a bit distracting.

Carr has to work out whether 2025 was an aberration or the norm. Once 'the decision' was made, Hinkley started to sook and this eventually cascaded down into the team. I am hoping that Carr sees 2025 as a one off and that the team can be turned around very quickly.

These are things that seem to have been a main part of the Hinkley regime that Carr should fix:

a good, balanced gameplan
setting standards and accountability
better players at the back end of the rotation of the 23
ditching the unaccountable swill
ditching middling to poor spuds
ditching old blokes
not playing injured blokes
better skills
stronger bodies
playing a full, hard game, not giving up
no loser talk
strong Port Adelaide creed messaging

That is a lot of poor coaching in there which means there is a lot of improving to do as well. It's almost like Hinkley didn't know and didn't care.

In the end, the processes will be more important than the results but it is possible the results come back. IF we have an easy early run, I could see us doing well.

I'm very interested to see if the Hornet will take off or just be another good player.
I'm interested to see how Byrne-Jones and Farrell go if Carr demands something more than good kicking.
There are plenty more that I'm interested in but I'll save that for other threads coming up.

We could easily make the 8 and snip at the Top 4.

Distracting for who?

I’m sure the players are well aware of the coaches message

 

[HinkleysHeroes]

I always start with us being premiers until reality hits in the first few rounds.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Distracting for who?

I’m sure the players are well aware of the coaches message

For me, for the fans.

I don't think it is unusual for fans to want to hear what a new coach has to say.

 

[Us against the rest]

If Hinkley can make finals I'm sure Carr can with our midfield talent. I like like our options up forward, we just need to stay healthy in the back half.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I think the list is a lot worse now than it was two years ago (Houston, Rioli, Boak, Dixon gone, plus Burton and Finlayson who despite being crap the last couple of years were good players at their best, SPP likely to miss most of the year, and no real established quality brought in to replace any of them), and I think it'll take more than one off season to fully clean the Hinkley attitude out of the place. Plus who knows what effect the contract speculation is going to have on our best player next year.

I expect our percentage will be better next year, I'm not expecting the regular 10 goal beltings to continue under the mentality that I expect Carr will instill in the group, but I'm not convinced our win/loss record or ladder position is going to markedly improve just yet.

I think we can fairly comfortably cover the 2024 editions of Boak and Dixon. SPP was out in 2024 as well.

Not too worried about Burton and Finlayson.

Rioli is a clear hole that we need to fill. We need someone to step up and be a goalscoring small forward. I'm hoping a generally better gameplay will help that a lot. Houston has effectively been replaced by Rozee in his role.

I think while some of these are issues, I think we'll also improve because we've got an extra 23 games into a bunch of players in their early 20s who are now getting closer to their primes. Georgiades, Bergman, Burgoyne, JHF, Jones, Sinn should all continue to improve, even the likes of Sweet and Richards should continue to improve. Rozee, Lukosius and Butters are only 25.

In 2024 we finished top 2 despite playing Ratugolea as a key forward for long stretches. Our key forward line should improve dramatically and that will help the smalls.

Ignoring 2025 and measuring off of 2024, I think our team can improve from there based on natural improvement with experience and an attitude improvement brought on by Carr.

 

[Schulzenfest]

This is the best 23 I posted in the best 23 thread, minus SPP who is probably a non factor this year:

B: B. Zerk-Thatcher, E. Ratugolea, L. Jones
HB: C. Rozee, A. Aliir, K. Farrell
C: J. Burgoyne, M. Bergman, J. Wehr
HF: J. Richards, J. Lukosius, C. Durdin
F: D. Byrne-Jones, M. Georgiades, T. Marshall
R: J. Sweet, Z. Butters, J. Horne-Francis
INT: O. Wines, W. Drew, J. Sinn, J. Berry, J. Whitlock

Bolded are the guys I would consider good to great AFL players. There's only 9 of them.

Of the rest, Ratugolea, Jones, Lukosius and Marshall are good enough at their best but none are reliable. BZT, Wehr, Richards, Durdin, DBJ, Sweet, Drew are B graders who probably won't get much better than B graders. Sinn, Berry and Whitlock (along with a few others not named like Visentini, Moraes, Tom Cochrane, Evans, Lorenz, Lai, Ramm) are hopefuls but not there yet, and aside from Sinn are still very young and likely a few years away from hitting their best, whatever their best may be.

I've read enough 'Kenny doesn't have the cattle' debates to recognise that you don't need 23 very good AFL players to win a flag. But you need more than 9.

The very important thing we do have going for us is that 8 of the 9 are 25 or under, and all going well we'll have names like Dougie Cochrane, Pilot and Salopek to add to the hopefuls list over the next couple of years. The core of a premiership list could well be here. But it's not gonna happen overnight.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

This is the best 23 I posted in the best 23 thread, minus SPP who is probably a non factor this year:

B: B. Zerk-Thatcher, E. Ratugolea, L. Jones
HB: C. Rozee, A. Aliir, K. Farrell
C: J. Burgoyne, M. Bergman, J. Wehr
HF: J. Richards, J. Lukosius, C. Durdin
F: D. Byrne-Jones, M. Georgiades, T. Marshall
R: J. Sweet, Z. Butters, J. Horne-Francis
INT: O. Wines, W. Drew, J. Sinn, J. Berry, J. Whitlock

Bolded are the guys I would consider good to great AFL players. There's only 9 of them.

Of the rest, Ratugolea, Jones, Lukosius and Marshall are good enough at their best but none are reliable. BZT, Wehr, Richards, Durdin, DBJ, Sweet, Drew are B graders who probably won't get much better than B graders. Sinn, Berry and Whitlock (along with a few others not named like Visentini, Moraes, Tom Cochrane, Evans, Lorenz, Lai, Ramm) are hopefuls but not there yet, and aside from Sinn are still very young and likely a few years away from hitting their best, whatever their best may be.

I've read enough 'Kenny doesn't have the cattle' debates to recognise that you don't need 23 very good AFL players to win a flag. But you need more than 9.

The very important thing we do have going for us is that 8 of the 9 are 25 or under, and all going well we'll have names like Dougie Cochrane, Pilot and Salopek to add to the hopefuls list over the next couple of years. The core of a premiership list could well be here. But it's not gonna happen overnight.

Actually shaking rn that L.Jones isn’t bolded

 

[PAFC66]

Top 8 would be nice but realistically bottom 6 if we have a few injuries to our back 6

 

[crafty_bernardo]

We have the talent on the list we just need to be coached 1% better than the last 10 years. Showing a more consistent result across the topper teams will be the challenge that Carr faces. Eradicating that weak, going to water when it's the coal face that was Ken Hinkley's special. We'll definitely make top 8. What I am concerned about is the fitness department.

 

[1954]

For me, for the fans.

I don't think it is unusual for fans to want to hear what a new coach has to say.

Fair point P B but after witnessing kern's over the top BS, ie those fake tears during an on field interview, the arm flapping after a narrow win against the dawks, and the childish lolly teeth incident maybe Carr has decided that keeping a low profile is the better way to go for him atm.

 

[tribey]

Actually shaking rn that L.Jones isn’t bolded

Fell to my knees at Aldi Munno Para

 

[Schulzenfest]

Actually shaking rn that L.Jones isn’t bolded

He was honestly lucky he made the 23 at all

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Fair point P B but after witnessing kern's over the top BS, ie those fake tears during an on field interview, the arm flapping after a narrow win against the dawks, and the childish lolly teeth incident maybe Carr has decided that keeping a low profile is the better way to go for him atm.

Nothing wrong with a low profile, I'd prefer it and it is probably Carr's way but no profile.

He might be actions speak louder than words which would be a welcome change from the propaganda of the past.

 

[Skindy]

Actually shaking rn that L.Jones isn’t bolded

L. Jones not being bolded but J. Burgoyne is. Absolute travesty

 

[KenGaveUsWhatHeDeserved]

7-12 range

Need players to improve, ie Burgoyne like Bergman did, and smokie young players to appear and show wow-potential

JHF needs to not disappear for 3 quarters

Jones to hold a mark, etc, which Ratogulea will play this year, can Aliir squeeze any more out of his body. Will MG kick straight

Really, idgaf if we finish 13th, I just want to not feel nothing in close games like I did under Ken. no increased heart rate in close finishes, no pain from being pole axed by Adelaide

Can we open a book on how many games Todd Marshall

4

Todd Marshall

Age

27

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.0

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

8.9

2star

K

7.1

3star

HB

1.8

1star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.0

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.6

5star

will last before his inevitable concussion and retirement? Put my down for "by Rd 4"

 

[morell]

For those that don't think we'll improve, do you agree that Hinkley was a bad coach holding us back? I don't get it.

Schulzenfest covered it. Hinkley was a bad coach holding us back and Port not improving on the ladder in 2026 can both be true.

It'll take time for Carr & Co to establish new standards, culture and structures. For the players to understand and buy in etc

I think (hope) we'll see a lot of improvement in all areas but won't see them translate into wins in 2026.

2027 and 2028 I'd expect on field results.

I'm also massively out of step with this board in that IMO Houston and more significantly Dixon were and are massive losses from that '24 side. Yes, Dixon was cooked in the end and it was always going to fail in September, but he was so important to our (inherently flawed) game plan during the year.

 

[King_Tredrea]

Don't care about Win/Loss in 2026. Just want to see us building something that looks like it's going somewhere, and that the whole club is pulling in the same direction, which we haven't seen or felt since 2014.

 

[El_Scorcho]

This is the best 23 I posted in the best 23 thread, minus SPP who is probably a non factor this year:

B: B. Zerk-Thatcher, E. Ratugolea, L. Jones
HB: C. Rozee, A. Aliir, K. Farrell
C: J. Burgoyne, M. Bergman, J. Wehr
HF: J. Richards, J. Lukosius, C. Durdin
F: D. Byrne-Jones, M. Georgiades, T. Marshall
R: J. Sweet, Z. Butters, J. Horne-Francis
INT: O. Wines, W. Drew, J. Sinn, J. Berry, J. Whitlock

Bolded are the guys I would consider good to great AFL players. There's only 9 of them.

Of the rest, Ratugolea, Jones, Lukosius and Marshall are good enough at their best but none are reliable. BZT, Wehr, Richards, Durdin, DBJ, Sweet, Drew are B graders who probably won't get much better than B graders. Sinn, Berry and Whitlock (along with a few others not named like Visentini, Moraes, Tom Cochrane, Evans, Lorenz, Lai, Ramm) are hopefuls but not there yet, and aside from Sinn are still very young and likely a few years away from hitting their best, whatever their best may be.

I've read enough 'Kenny doesn't have the cattle' debates to recognise that you don't need 23 very good AFL players to win a flag. But you need more than 9.

The very important thing we do have going for us is that 8 of the 9 are 25 or under, and all going well we'll have names like Dougie Cochrane, Pilot and Salopek to add to the hopefuls list over the next couple of years. The core of a premiership list could well be here. But it's not gonna happen overnight.

This was your best 23, posted on October 19 2023 in the 2024 best 23 thread, so a roughly equivalent prediction to now for 2026.

FB: T. McKenzie, E. Ratugolea, D. Williams
HB: D. Houston, A. Aliir, R. Burton
C: M. Bergman, O. Wines, K. Farrell
HF: J. Horne-Francis, T. Marshall, S. Powell-Pepper
F: W. Rioli, C. Dixon, J. Finlayson
R: I. Soldo, C. Rozee, Z. Butters
INT: W. Drew, D. Byrne-Jones, L. Jones, T. Boak
SUB: F. Evans

In 2024 we ended up going 16-7 and finishing 2nd on the ladder. With SPP missing the whole season.

Does this side have a bunch of excess good to great AFL players compared to 2025 who would be responsible for 7 extra wins and a 2nd placed finished just based on extra talent alone?

 

[portly]

I'm expecting top 4.

Yeah, I'm serious.

 

[Schulzenfest]

This was your best 23, posted on October 19 2023 in the 2024 best 23 thread, so a roughly equivalent prediction to now for 2026.

FB: T. McKenzie, E. Ratugolea, D. Williams
HB: D. Houston, A. Aliir, R. Burton
C: M. Bergman, O. Wines, K. Farrell
HF: J. Horne-Francis, T. Marshall, S. Powell-Pepper
F: W. Rioli, C. Dixon, J. Finlayson
R: I. Soldo, C. Rozee, Z. Butters
INT: W. Drew, D. Byrne-Jones, L. Jones, T. Boak
SUB: F. Evans

In 2024 we ended up going 16-7 and finishing 2nd on the ladder. With SPP missing the whole season.

Does this side have a bunch of excess good to great AFL players compared to 2025 who would be responsible for 7 extra wins and a 2nd placed finished just based on extra talent alone?

Georgiades and Burgoyne cracked our side and played plenty of good footy in 2024, so let's account for me being shit at picking teams by subbing them in for the two worst players in that side, probably Evans and Dyl Wil.

Out: Houston
In: Sinn

Huuuuuge downgrade

Out: Rioli
In: Richards

Big downgrade

Out: SPP
In: Luko

Meh, different types, probably works out to a draw

Out: Dixon
In: Whitlock

Whitlock has potential, but for now, big downgrade

Out: Boak
In: Wehr

Downgrade

Out: Finlayson
In: Berry

Similar to Whitlock, Berry will hopefully turn out better, but for now, downgrade

Out: Soldo
In: Sweet

Meh

Out: McKenzie
In: BZT

Meh

Out: Burton
In: Durdin

Meh

Kidding yourself if you think our list now is as good as our list in 2024, unfortunately. And while Richmond, Melbourne and Carlton have all spectacularly shit the bed and North, West Coast and Essendon don't seem likely to snap out of being perennial cellar dwellers any time soon, I'd say the other 11 lists have on average gotten better. On list strength I'd have us about 12th.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Georgiades and Burgoyne cracked our side and played plenty of good footy in 2024, so let's account for me being shit at picking teams by subbing them in for the two worst players in that side, probably Evans and Dyl Wil.

Out: Houston
In: Sinn

Huuuuuge downgrade

Out: Rioli
In: Richards

Big downgrade

Out: SPP
In: Luko

Meh, different types, probably works out to a draw

Out: Dixon
In: Whitlock

Whitlock has potential, but for now, big downgrade

Out: Boak
In: Wehr

Downgrade

Out: Finlayson
In: Berry

Similar to Whitlock, Berry will hopefully turn out better, but for now, downgrade

Out: Soldo
In: Sweet

Meh

Out: McKenzie
In: BZT

Meh

Out: Burton
In: Durdin

Meh

Kidding yourself if you think our list now is as good as our list in 2024, unfortunately. And while Richmond, Melbourne and Carlton have all spectacularly shit the bed and North, West Coast and Essendon don't seem likely to snap out of being perennial cellar dwellers any time soon, I'd say the other 11 lists have on average gotten better. On list strength I'd have us about 12th.

Treating them one for one with some favourable comparisons isn't really fair though is it?

In 2024, McKenzie didn't play a game, and Bergman had to play KPD all year, so by adding BZT we're actually gaining Bergman to the midfield, which means we can afford to shift Rozee to halfback, which means we don't miss Houston like we otherwise would have.

Our key forward line of a coming-into-his-prime Georgiades, Lukosius and one of Marshall/Lord/Whitlock (especially if we can keep Marshall fit) is going to be better than 2024's 50 games less experienced Georgiades, hobbled Dixon and in and out of the side with injury Marshall. Remember playing Ratugolea for a bunch of games at the back end of 2024? 2026 will be better than that.

We've absolutely got a hole at small forward with Rioli leaving that we need someone to step up into, Cochrane or Berry would be great, but we just need more goals from that group. I'd hope the better key forward line makes that easier for them.

There's also the fact that every player in our core is now 2 years older.

The 2026 versions of the likes of Butters, Rozee, JHF, Bergman, Burgoyne, Georgiades, Farrell etc are all going to be better players.

 

[Portology]

Schulzenfest covered it. Hinkley was a bad coach holding us back and Port not improving on the ladder in 2026 can both be true.

It'll take time for Carr & Co to establish new standards, culture and structures. For the players to understand and buy in etc

I think (hope) we'll see a lot of improvement in all areas but won't see them translate into wins in 2026.

2027 and 2028 I'd expect on field results.

I'm also massively out of step with this board in that IMO Houston and more significantly Dixon were and are massive losses from that '24 side. Yes, Dixon was cooked in the end and it was always going to fail in September, but he was so important to our (inherently flawed) game plan during the year.

Yep. Think we'll spend lots of time in 2026 looking for signs of change rather than dramatic movement on the ladder.

On Dixon, yes and no. Playing 2025 as though someone like Dixon was still there was only inevitable because... Ken hung around. And to be fair, Todd/Luko/Lord for their various reasons took away options to play too much different. Thankful for Mitch shouldering the load and being a better Dixon than 2024 Dixon. In 2024 Dixon gets 4 goals in 7 games vs top 8 sides. 3 in the thumping of Sydney, 1 in the embarrassing prelim sequel. Yes, central to our game plan, his input against lesser lights a key to us floating up into top 4 instead of drifting ~5th-8th, but IMO in 2024 he never threatened to drag us genuinely near a flag. A bit like the standard, justified Ken critique - but at least with Dixon you got to see effort.

Houston looked a big loss in isolation but as El Scorcho pointed out there was a useful shuffle to be had. We can move magnets around when we want to but still the point there was to enable us to play much like we'd already been playing.

by adding BZT we're actually gaining Bergman to the midfield, which means we can afford to shift Rozee to halfback, which means we don't miss Houston like we otherwise would have.

 

[morell]

Yep. Think we'll spend lots of time in 2026 looking for signs of change rather than dramatic movement on the ladder.

On Dixon, yes and no. Playing 2025 as though someone like Dixon was still there was only inevitable because... Ken hung around. And to be fair, Todd/Luko/Lord for their various reasons took away options to play too much different. Thankful for Mitch shouldering the load and being a better Dixon than 2024 Dixon. In 2024 Dixon gets 4 goals in 7 games vs top 8 sides. 3 in the thumping of Sydney, 1 in the embarrassing prelim sequel. Yes, central to our game plan, his input against lesser lights a key to us floating up into top 4 instead of drifting ~5th-8th, but IMO in 2024 he never threatened to drag us genuinely near a flag. A bit like the standard, justified Ken critique - but at least with Dixon you got to see effort.

Houston looked a big loss in isolation but as El Scorcho pointed out there was a useful shuffle to be had. We can move magnets around when we want to but still the point there was to enable us to play much like we'd already been playing.

Yeah agreed. A good coach would've moved on much earlier and developed something different up forward that would stack up against the better sides and in finals

But if the baseline is 2024 performance and ladder spots vs 2025 and 2026, no Dixon makes a big difference.

I was more of a fan than most on here of Dixon and his ability to force a contest and at least as you say, provide a bit of physicality and effort vs some of the pea hearted stuff we've seen from others this year.

He was old slow and couldn't move but I'll be damned if anyone couldn't say he at least always had a crack and provided presence.

The game that sticks in my head is the close Freo game at home. His last quarter won that for us.

 

[pstew2dstew]

I think this is the first year in about a decade where I can say I dont know and I am good with that.

But still I think about our brissy game this season. Spp kicking that big bomb and we had the eventual premiers on toast. Unfortunately injury struck and it didn't play out, but this game alone gives me hope for 2025.

The improvement must come from players like Drew, Farrell Esava Burgoyne Burgs and especially Hornet who should be in our top 3 players consistently if we were to go up the ladder.