Polls Thread Mk III

[Pessimistic]

Small party vote should be much higher given people have the security of a second prefence

 

[GreyCrow]

Watch the 2 majors change the preferencing rules

 

[Fire]

Small party vote should be much higher given people have the security of a second prefence

Yeah but the average punter doesn't know how preferences work.

If they did, then preference deals and how to vote cards would not exist.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Yeah but the average punter doesn't know how preferences work.

If they did, then preference deals and how to vote cards would not exist.

Give the average punter some credit, please. People who are loyal to parties will take their how to vote and vote that way, but I think most people don't take them, or take all of them (and there is some sense in that, because it SHOULD reflect who the true wackos are in the unknown parties - you don't want to accidentally give CEC your vote because their name sounds benign).

 

[Dry Rot]

Can we please keep this thread for polling, not general commentary?

 

[Fire]

Give the average punter some credit, please. People who are loyal to parties will take their how to vote and vote that way, but I think most people don't take them, or take all of them (and there is some sense in that, because it SHOULD reflect who the true wackos are in the unknown parties - you don't want to accidentally give CEC your vote because their name sounds benign).

Ive had many discussions with people about this. The vast majority of people aren't particularly politically engaged; they may have their favorites and opinions, but they don't always know how the political system works, let alone how the voting system works.

But we probably have different experiences; I'm happy to agree to disagree

Can we please keep this thread for polling, not general commentary?

Sure.

 

[Pessimistic]

Commentary is largely about polling

 

[volcboy]

Newspoll LNP 46-54

And third party vote is at a record high of 29%

Given that the third party vote is so high, I would be interested to know how they are calculating the preference flows for the two-party preferred numbers. Although Labor is supposedly well in front, I would guess that there is a fair degree of uncertainty on which way preferences will flow, especially when taking into account regional and seat-by-seat demographic differences.

 

[Rob R]

Given that the third party vote is so high, I would be interested to know how they are calculating the preference flows for the two-party preferred numbers. Although Labor is supposedly well in front, I would guess that there is a fair degree of uncertainty on which way preferences will flow, especially when taking into account regional and seat-by-seat demographic differences.

It is probably closer than that as the polls are normally based on preference flows from the last election and One Nation Preferences went to the ALP last time. This time, they may go more heavily to the LNP given a lot of it (at least in Victorian where they are apparently over 10% now) is due to the horrific law and order policies of the Labour party.

Still not enough to get the LNP over the line unless they somehow get organised and find a message - Shorten may be lying everytime he opens his mouth and have no way to fund anything but at least he has a message.

 

[Benny78]

Can we please keep this thread for polling, not general commentary?

Can we please keep the moderating to moderators, not general memberentary?

 

[Grin]

The membewentawy are wethtleth

 

[Dry Rot]

Can we please keep the moderating to moderators, not general memberentary?

I prefer to ask nicely, rather than bothering moderators. This used to be a good reference thread for polling.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Everyone, take it easy on DR. Before he asked nicely, comments between polls updates had rocketed from a wholesome 3, 1, 0 and 0 to the carnage of 6, 4 and then 5. It was well out of hand.

Not like the good ol' days*.

*page 79, if you go before that it's the dark ages - almost a full page of no poll updates. #shudder

 

[moistie]

moistie, bringing polling back to the polls thread.

Essential LNP 48-52 ALP

Sent from my SM-N910G using Tapatalk

 

[pazza]

Werribee (Vic)

ALP 49
Lib 51

Two party Preferred

As reported in today's Herald-Sun

 

[Lebbo73]

Werribee (Vic)

ALP 49
Lib 51

Two party Preferred

As reported in today's Herald-Sun

Excuse my ignorance but what does this mean exactly?

 

[RobbieGray17]

Out of curiosity, how many donkey votes are there typically in an election, and how much does this affect ballot position?

 

[Ricardo]

Excuse my ignorance but what does this mean exactly?

I think it may just be to highlight the dissatisfaction to the proposed Youth justice facility in Werribee.

The ALP won Werribee comfortably (66-34 TPP) at the 2014 state election
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2014/WerribeeDistrict.html

 

[Groucho]

Werribee (Vic)

ALP 49
Lib 51 e nes

Two party Preferred

As reported in today's Herald-Sun

Pretty sure that is , genuinely, fake news.

 

[Lebbo73]

Now 50/50 in the West according to ReachTel.

 

[Pessimistic]

To campaign on the issue. Don't the Libs have to nominate their site for the prison Or risk being all talk on the crime issue?

 

[Ice-Wolf]

To campaign on the issue. Don't the Libs have to nominate their site for the prison Or risk being all talk on the crime issue?

They are all talk on the crime issue.

 

[moistie]

Essential TPP ALP 52, LNP 48

Sent from my SM-N910G using Tapatalk

 

[GreyCrow]

Is 48-52 the natural fall point at the moment?

 

[Benny78]

Lol wut? Wasn't it 47-53 a few weeks ago? How did they gain a point..

Since then there's been the Trump call, Abbott comeback, and the attack on penalty rates.