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Polls Thread Mk III

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If the coalition win this next election it will be a greater miracle than 2019.

Yes, the polls may be wrong - but their margin of error cannot be this enormous. Even in 2019 the final 2PP vote was within the margins of error of the most conventional and reliable polls.
 
Forward Press said:
If the coalition win this next election it will be a greater miracle than 2019.

Yes, the polls may be wrong - but their margin of error cannot be this enormous. Even in 2019 the final 2PP vote was within the margins of error of the most conventional and reliable polls.
Click to expand...

The Pollsters would have adjusted their methodology following the 2019 election to account for the amount they were out by as well - if they were using the 2019 methods then the current polls would have an even greater margin.
 

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Forward Press said:
If the coalition win this next election it will be a greater miracle than 2019.

Yes, the polls may be wrong - but their margin of error cannot be this enormous. Even in 2019 the final 2PP vote was within the margins of error of the most conventional and reliable polls.
Click to expand...

The only way I see it is:

1) the swings are massively disproportionately in existing alp seats, with minimal movement in lib seats

2) the polls are voters venting, and genuine intent once a ballot is in front of them is still anti alp

Its possible, and nothing should be taken for granted
 
Kyptastic said:
The Pollsters would have adjusted their methodology following the 2019 election to account for the amount they were out by as well - if they were using the 2019 methods then the current polls would have an even greater margin.
Click to expand...
Don't think Newscorp did
Morgan did
Guardian did
 
The ones who can’t say their voting intention prefer fryzo significantly over scomo?. More than those with a voting intention


Doesn’t bode well if undecideds are 2-1 against scomo
 
Ned_Flanders said:
The only way I see it is:

1) the swings are massively disproportionately in existing alp seats, with minimal movement in lib seats

2) the polls are voters venting, and genuine intent once a ballot is in front of them is still anti alp

Its possible, and nothing should be taken for granted
Click to expand...

I think there's a decent chance of #1 happening because I suspect that safe ALP seats will swing harder because Albo's base is firmer than ScoMo's.

That said, ScoMo's base appears to be fragmenting, especially in LNP-held inner-city seats that believe he's courted ON too much and are put off by his overt religiosity. I know that not all seats are the same, but these would to vary degrees include Wentworth, North Sydney, Higgins, Goldstein, Kooyong, Brisbane, Ryan. He's definitely not popular in inner-city areas, and his unpopulairty is set in, meaning that he'll be a drag on the vote relative to Albo (IMO net netural, given it's hard to really dislike him unless you're a drooling partisan).

More broadly, WA swing pretty hard if they support or refute your measures, which is why I tend to eschew seat-by-seat analysis, but I will make an exception for Swan for reasons listed below*.

They particularly loathe ScoMo for various reasons: 1) being too close to a hate figure in Clive, 2) arguing with a pretty State Popular Premier about opening borders, which comes off as outsiders dictating to locals. Not a good look. Of course, that could change should ScoMo throw some pork their way, but that won't make them like him personally. They would've seen it before; a desperate politician trying to hold onto his position after comparing them to cavemen. That said, Albo should match ScoMo's porking to prevent an unpopular ScoMo from winning votes. One particular seat in play, I suspect, is Swan*.

UAP won't be a big factor due to Clive's court-room stoushes with McGowan not long before election time, but while I haven't checked the demographics of Pearce or Swan, I'd aver that most people in those areas are not anti-vax, nor will they appreciate such ideas being pushed onto them by an outsider like Pauline - especially older Western Australians given their vulnerability to COVID. Additionally, there's no anti-franking credits sentiment to direct preferences towards the LNP, while ON will need to compete with the ON, UAP and LNP for the anti-vax nutter vote, diluting their collective vote.

*The affluent classes in Swan are apparently pro-LNP, but they are also socially progressive, so they'd be at odds with ScoMo in that regards. The working class in Swan are apparently pro-ALP, although arguably less than they used to be since the ALP increasingly seen as a party for well-paid socially progressive professionals - Albo is a bit more knockabout than Shorten was and lacks ScoMo's baggage, so he should be able to win quite a few of them back.

JackOutback - I've mentioned WA parochialism as a factor in why Pauline (a Queenslander) won't do as well this time. I haven't even bothered mentioning Clive for that reason, and have listed both Clive and ScoMo as 'outsiders'. Please tell me what you think. I'd really appreciate that. :)

EDIT: RE #2, there will be more waverers who go back to the LNP than the ALP, definitely. I think this effect will be attenuated by ScoMo's seemingly baked-in unpopularity, but it'll be present. There are also still some undecided voters, but IMO they're a bit more likely to go for Albo because he seems like an OK guy and the present government have been in power for 9 years or thereabouts.

If anything, voters tend to use state elections to vent, which is why I'm a little worried about the SA election. Would some venting have gone on during the NSW by-elections, too? I'd say yes, but to a lesser degree because ScoMo still has unresolved issues in Bega/Monaro. The ALP's performance in Strathfield (Asiastic, perhaps more Vietnamese than Chinese) was disappointing - the Vietnamese are fairly socon-ish and ScoMo should do relatively well among them unless the China-baiting rebounds on them.
 
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Dry Rot said:
Newspoll polling continues to be miserable for the Coalition

GhostWhoVotes
Click to expand...
Dead man walking. No opposition leader with those numbers is going to lose if they hold until the election.
 

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dusty1234! said:
That can't be haha
Surely they skewed something badly?
Click to expand...

It does seem like some wild jumps in certain states. If it’s a fair reflection though, it seems that all the ‘ALP are bullies’ takes haven’t had any impact. It’ll be interesting to see what the next thing they’ll come up with is, because nothing has worked so far
 
Essential Poll today

In the latest poll, Labor’s primary vote is 37% (up from 35%), Coalition: 37% (up from 36%), with 7% of respondents undecided.

On the two-party preferred “plus” measure Labor is on 48% (down from 49%), the Coalition: 44% (steady), with 7% of respondents undeci
 
Kyptastic said:
It does seem like some wild jumps in certain states. If it’s a fair reflection though, it seems that all the ‘ALP are bullies’ takes haven’t had any impact. It’ll be interesting to see what the next thing they’ll come up with is, because nothing has worked so far
Click to expand...
I honestly do not know what the Liberals are even doing. They have spent the last week attacking Labor on Kitching and then follow it up with Spaceforce and in-between all that buy $70m of coal from Whitehaven - no effing idea how they are going to deliver that but anywho.

Seriously wtf. What is their actual strategy?
 
Kyptastic said:
It does seem like some wild jumps in certain states. If it’s a fair reflection though, it seems that all the ‘ALP are bullies’ takes haven’t had any impact. It’ll be interesting to see what the next thing they’ll come up with is, because nothing has worked so far
Click to expand...

The rising costs of living and housing will - rightly or wrongly - be attributed to Federal government economic mismanagement. No one really cares about Kimberly Kitching and the clique of ALP Senator bullies, the vast majority of Australians (and certainly the apathetic to politics ones) see the ALP Opposition as being competent and united so far. Albanese has not had any major gaffes and is sounding more Prime Ministerial by the day. More importantly, Morrison's 'daggy dad' persona is no longer winning votes as it is associated with inaction on flooding and fires and COVID.

Considering that economic prowess is - rightly or wrongly - associated with coalition governments, this seems like the death rattle of a dying government. If fuel is still above $2 a litre in May and people cannot afford their usual groceries, this will be an absolute bloodbath as the government will be seen to have failed at the one thing it's good at.
 

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