He tweets that every week. I stopped following him because I found it so annoying.
Polls Thread MkII
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The more dramatic PVO's announcement, the less interesting the Newspoll is.
I'm tipping no change.
It'd have to depend if they ask for the age of the polled person for any poll surely. Landlines skew towards the older (more Coalition leaning) voter, mobiles would the other direction. Newspoll and others doing landline polls seem to have worked out how to weight the figures accordingly based on this, but I'd hazard a mobile only poll is still too new territory to have confidence in any adjustments they make. Over time as the polled versus actual voting figures in various elections allows it to be tweaked I think it'd be a potentially valuable addition to the other polls, but right now I wouldn't put as much weight in it as the older polling types.
Newspoll 54-46, from 33/46.
No change at all from last week. Also identical to Nielsen today.
Looking like it's eased out even further to the Coalition in the final week.
No change at all from last week. Also identical to Nielsen today.
Looking like it's eased out even further to the Coalition in the final week.
Morgan Exit Poll
LNP 42%
ALP 34.5%
Green 11%
PUP 5%
LNP 42%
ALP 34.5%
Green 11%
PUP 5%
52-48 TPP apparently.
That would be about right. Last time all the exit polls over-estimated Labor 2PP by 1-2%, presumably because pre-polls, postals, etc generally favour the Coalition.
LeverPuller
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Yeah not going to be indicative, 4pm rush yet to come
They are doing it every hour apparently.
4pm results were Coal 42.5, ALP 33.5, Grn 11.5, Palmer 5, Others 8.
I admit it's pretty hard to see how they get 52-48 from that. Labor cannot get close with a primary of 33.5%.
Palmer voters were in an earlier poll supposedly going 65% to the ALP and KAP 55% to the ALP. 33.5 + 10 from Greens, 3 PUP is 46.5. That's close enough with others.
Going by how prefs were distributed in 2010, then Labor 33.5; Greens on 11.5; Palmer and others on 13 pans out to bang on 48.09 TPP.
Newspoll exit poll seat estimate ALP 51 L/NP 97 GRN 0 IND 2. No 2PP or primary results yet I could see.
Newspoll exit poll predicting a landslide.
Michael Kroger on SkyNews has apparently declared an Abbott victory already.
Also, there is apparently something going on in the football world right now, which I am choosing not to pay attention to........
Michael Kroger on SkyNews has apparently declared an Abbott victory already.
Also, there is apparently something going on in the football world right now, which I am choosing not to pay attention to........
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That Newspoll exit poll is based on less than 800 voters in QLD and NSW combined with the Tuesday to Thursday phone. Not sure what's going on there.
tazzietiger
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Skynews exit poll QLD/NSW marginal seats
2PP
ALP 47%
Coalition 53% +6.3%
2PP
ALP 47%
Coalition 53% +6.3%
Morgan's exit poll sees the Coalition vote going up and Labor's going down, but no changes on TPP.
5pm: Coal 43, Labor 33.5, Grn 11 still giving 52-48.....
5pm: Coal 43, Labor 33.5, Grn 11 still giving 52-48.....
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