Analysis Port Undertaking a rebuild ... Or a Renovate?

[Tibbs]

OK, I am going have a whinge!

I am just so peeved off at constant snipes at the club that we have undergone a rebuild, or as some have snidely insinuated; A rebuild by "stealth." So I decided to put this in a new thread.

This is a ridiculous statement, and in my opinion shows little understanding of how lists work, or are constructed. I have been a serious Port supporter & followed Aussie rules footy for some 40 years now, and I am pretty sure I know what a "rebuild" is ... having seen it occur many times. I will start this off with an article by Jake Niall in the age. This article clearly spells out what constitutes a rebuild, and even lists clubs that have, or havent been going down that road.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...rebuilder-clarkson-draft-20180421-p4zaxv.html

 

[Tibbs]

So lets look at it ............

A team rebuild, as it is generally understood in context, is when you clear the decks & start from the bottom up. This involves going to the draft over a number of years, and completely changing the spine of you team, building it around new marquee players. EG: That is what St Kilda, Brisbane, Carlton and Melbourne etc, have done, and its taken them many years to do it having to bottom out, and in many cases, they are still not there.

A team renovation, on the otherhand, is very different. While a rebuild involves using the draft to rebuild a young team up, a renovation involves forsaking the draft, and targeting specific players your team needs to improve. This through a combination of trade, free agency, and the draft. These are clubs like WC, Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, and in recent years Richmond, that are attractive destination clubs, who have specialized in this.

 

[Tibbs]

Over the last four years, Port, while not in the same tier as these clubs, has become such a club, and has followed a similar list-management strategy. Through trading and free agency, we have picked up players like Polec, Ryder, Dixon, Watts, Motlop, Rockliff, and Lycett, while at the same time working damn hard (often to the ire of certain supporters) to position our self so as to maximize our drafting, picking up the likes of Atley, Drew, Bonner, SPP, Marshall, and now Rozee, Butters, and Duursma.

All the while Port have been able to maintain a very stable group of players that formed the spine of our 22, slowly adding better depth, and targeting key players.

This is just NOT a rebuild!!! This is a targeted strategy of regenerating the list, without sacrificing the core. Each year of this strategy through the last 4 years, Port has remained a "top 8" side, and last year was viewed as a top-4 side. That fact that Port failed in finals, or failed to reach finals, had NOTHING to do with a so-called list rebuild! The list was fine, the gameplan, selections, and arguably coaching, was the failure!

Just as an example, Richmond, who between 2013-2015 had made the final 8 (5th twice), and were touted to go deep. Yet during those same three years they moved on 25 players off their list. However if you take a closer look, their spine remained constant. They were building better depth around a solid core, and in 2017 it clicked. Its interesting that in 2016, after a bad start, angry supporters were calling for a rebuild ... something the club rejected outright.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...n/news-story/d921e58e881169eaca12eef36da6059e
They were correct ... There was no rebuild at Richmond, they won the flag the following year!

By the way, just as a final nail in this ridiculous assertion of a rebuild, simply because we have turned over fringe players ... Over the next four, Richmond traded/delisted/retired a further 31 players, all while winning a premiership & being touted a top-4 premiership threat this year!

 

[Tibbs]

Now compare this to Port...

Port, over the last three years has moved on 24 players, either retired or delisted (not including special category in Dan Flynn and Johann Wagner) ...
Kane Cornes, Tom Logan, Mitch Harvey, Andrew Moore, Jarrad Redden, Jay Schulz, Mason Shaw, Sam Russell, John Butcher, Sam Colquhoun, Kane Mitchell, Alipate Carlile, Paul Stewart, Cam O Shea, Jack Hombsch, Jasper Pittard, Dom Barry, Emmanuel Irra, Jake Neade, Jimmy Toumpas, Will Snelling, Lindsay Thomas.

Look at the names! This was a clean out of the fringe & depth ... failed depth in fact! Hence the need to replace them, very similar to what Richmond did. This is NOT a rebuild!

"What about Polec & Wingard?" I hear some goose say. Well, unless you still have your head buried in your kiddies sandpit, we all know that they were required players that the club was willing to keep. Both tried to test the club with threats of looking elsewhere, and Port didnt blink! This is NOT a rebuild!

 

[Tibbs]

The final argument...

"But we have 11 changes in our team from last year! So, it has to be a rebuild!" .... Is what some of the experts here have written.

So from the last game in 2018 ...
Lienert - Injured
SGray - Dropped
Frampton - Dropped
Farrell - Dropped
Howard - Dropped
FIVE players that would/could have played if fit, or in form. Then we had THREE more in Hartlett, Dixon & Broadbent out of that team, who will play when they come back from injury

So that makes EIGHT players who either played in that last game, or would have if fit, that are all still on our list, and can contend for selection when fit

OK, so of the others not playing in Rd 1 we have:
Wingard - left
Polec - left
Hombsch - Delisted
Neade - Delisted
Pittard - Moved on

A rebuild?

Seriously?

 

[Doctor Feel]

So what you're saying is it's a rebuild?

 

[Magus]

I reckon it's a rebuild.

 

[Power Raid]

I'm happy with a rebuild

Let's not forget some of our best players still, are our oldest. That means developing the squad quickly or else.

 

[Tibbs]

So what you're saying is it's a rebuild?

LOL ... Seriously?

 

[VineValerian]

A rejuvenation?

 

[Coobk001]

What even is this thread. Rebuild, renovate. It's all the same s**t. We've identified we aren't good enough and we're reloading. We thought we were good enough last year and we went for all the free agents. We failed and the club pushed out 2 of its best players to position itself better in the long term, at the expense of current performance. If that isn't a refresh, rebuild, renovation, or whatever you want to call it I dont know what is.

 

[Magus]

It's also possible that we don't have a heaps good long term plan and the list management team has made a bit of a blunder in allowing our age profile to become out of wack. This is only going to become more evident as Westhoff, Boak, Gray, Ryder and Rockliff retire and our youngsters aren't fully there yet.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It's just a build.

Our strategy is to 'play what is in front of us'

If it's a strong draft we want to attack it.

If we can get free agents that fit our needs we will take them.

If we can plug holes with trades (especially giving up picks in drafts we consider weak) then we will.

Time will tell whether his perpetual list regeneration strategy works compared to other teams that go down a more traditional rebuild path and go to the draft at the expense of trades but my feeling is that with free agency here now the traditional list rebuilt is almost obsolete.

 

[RossFC]

Rebuildovating.

 

[DazalenkoUBewty]

Teams are constantly rebuilding, just a bit more on some years than others.

 

[Coobk001]

Rebuildovating.

Rebuildfreshloadovating.

But don't say rebuilding.

Sounds like the new 'tightness', 'awareness', or 'signalling'

 

[Tibbs]

What even is this thread. Rebuild, renovate. It's all the same s**t. We've identified we aren't good enough and we're reloading. We thought we were good enough last year and we went for all the free agents. We failed and the club pushed out 2 of its best players to position itself better in the long term, at the expense of current performance. If that isn't a refresh, rebuild, renovation, or whatever you want to call it I dont know what is.

If you bothered to even read the Age article, you will see you are wrong!

Every year, every team identifies areas, players, etc., that are not good enough, and do a cleanout. As mentioned, Richmond have cleared out 31 players in the last few years, yet they got a premiership & remain a top 4 side.

 

[Tibbs]

Rebuildfreshloadovating.

But don't say rebuilding.

Sounds like the new 'tightness', 'awareness', or 'signalling'

No, more like the difference between a PCL and an ACL.

Same area, totally different injuries, totally different treatment, totally different recovery times. One requires a full reconstruction.

If you call one injury the same as the other, you are a dill!

 

[Eddie Dingle]

I’ll consult with that campaigner from tv that does the reno shows.

He’ll know

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

At the end of 2017, ie the day after we lost that bloody final to WCE we had 45 players on the list. Today there are only 26 of those 45 players left and we now have a list of 46.

11 players into the squad in 2018. 2 of those 11 only last 12 months ie Lindsay Thomas and Dom Barry. Another 11 new players add for 2019 squad. So 22 new players in but 2 only last 12 months equals a net 20 new players to go with the 26 who survived the axe over the last 18 months ago.

What ever you call it, its a bloody significant turnover of the list. Add 2016 draftees that have survived, Marshall, SPP, Atley, Drew and rookies Ladhams and Lienert.

Thats why we have a big hole between the over 28's and under 24's.

 

[Magus]

If you bothered to even read the Age article, you will see you are wrong!

Every year, every team identifies areas, players, etc., that are not good enough, and do a cleanout. As mentioned, Richmond have cleared out 31 players in the last few years, yet they got a premiership & remain a top 4 side.

How many of them were first 22?

The Bulldogs won the flag the year before and they're in the rebuild category.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The NSW government is going to spend $810m on the Olympic Stadium redevelopment if it gets back in. There was a NSW Parliament Public Works Committee inquiry into that stadium redevelopment and Sydney Football Stadium between April and September 2018 and its report on 29 September, it had 10 recommendations.

Recommendation 7........ page 37
That the NSW Government not proceed with the redevelopment of Stadium Australia until construction of the new Sydney Football Stadium is completed.

24 January 2019 this is the letter from the Sports Minister, Stuart Ayres, which contains the official government response to the 10 recommendations. This is the response to the above recommendation 7.

Noted
The NSW Government has stated that it would prepare a final business case for the refurbishment (not redevelopment) of Stadium Australia for further consideration in the second quarter of 2019.

The original stadium cost $670m between 1996-1999 and $80m to reconfigure it in 2001 post Olympics.

Is it a refurbishment or a redevelopment???

In the end its all academic. Its all massive change, there and at Alberton.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It's also possible that we don't have a heaps good long term plan and the list management team has made a bit of a blunder in allowing our age profile to become out of wack. This is only going to become more evident as Westhoff, Boak, Gray, Ryder and Rockliff retire and our youngsters aren't fully there yet.

How long do you expect it to take our youngsters to develop?

Given how quickly modern draftees play and develop and the ability to top up using free agency and trade I think people are way over stating the cliff.

 

[Magus]

How long do you expect it to take our youngsters to develop?

Given how quickly modern draftees play and develop and the ability to top up using free agency and trade I think people are way over stating the cliff.

4-5 years for them to hit their peak.

In 2 years the guy's I mentioned (plus Broadbent, Hartlett, Dixon) will probably be gone. We aren't winning anything in the next few years with a core group of 20-22 year olds. It can happen but it's unlikely.

 

[chiwigi]

Definitely a rebuild, but at least its a rebuild without bottoming out (for now). Slightly forced by the Polec and Wingard situations (and the disappointing form of Motlop, Watts and Rockliff).
The same decent free agency signings have made it possible to do without a crash, they were signed to win a flag though, not to provide a soft landing.

It seems we are banking a little on some good value father/son picks alongside our picks.