List Mgmt. Predict the 2016 List Changes

[bergholt]

Here's a cherry-picked list of the players I think are most likely to be list changes this year (whether delisted, traded, retired, whatever). I couldn't include everyone because there's a poll size limit, so if you think someone else might go, for whatever reason, include them in a post.

 

[Nutsngum]

Why did you list Freeman there? Short of him losing his legs in a grain thresher he will 100% be here for the next two years.

 

[bergholt]

Why did you list Freeman there? Short of him losing his legs in a grain thresher he will 100% be here for the next two years.

I listed everyone with even a remote chance of going. If you don't think he'll go, don't vote for him!

 

[joop]

In a ****ed up way I kinda hope we trade Longer just so I don't have another year of reading the Hickey vs Longer crap.

 

[CursingFijian]

This has gotta be the toughest time of the year for a football club. Colleagues who have, for the most part, become good friends are headed straight toward the great AFL guillotine. As supporters we all hope the club can build good depth, because in this day and age clubs need a talented pool that runs about thirty deep if they're going to get through a season primed and ready for a finals campaign. But if a club does have good depth then it means three players will be desperately unlucky during the draft and trade period. I think if the club is hell bent on building its midfield depth then Josh Saunders, Tom Curren, and Brodie Murdoch would be well and truly in the gun, and Eli Templeton would be feeling a little uncomfortable. I think one ruckman goes and you could pick straws between Holmes and Pierce. Tom Lee is probably the defender most under the pump, with one of Fisher and Delaney to play on I think, and I'm tipping it's Chips.

 

[freebloke]

Hate it how it doesn't sort based on %age.

Josh Saunders 93.5% (r)
Tom Curren 87%
Sam Fisher 78.3%
Brodie Murdoch 67.4%
Cameron Shenton 63%
Jason Holmes 54.3%
Tom Lee 52.2%
Luke Delaney 52.2%
Brenton Payne 17.4%

Others are NOK and Eli (1 vote each).

Firstly, the question should be worded properly, ie, who's still there at the start of 2017 season. Otherwise, I am sure some smartASS will claim 2017 delistees as "Aha - I told you so" or more likely, on being questioned about their selection, they'll point to November 2017.

I don't expect Holmes to go, simply because he's being picked before Longer for the weekend game, highlighting his rating. Was more surprised that Lewis Pierce got handed another contract. Just hasn't shown enough despite 4 years +. But, with a 2 year contract, the supporters need an enigma with Tom Lee probably going (nod to Freeman there as well).

Don't think Delaney will go. Losing Lee, Delaney and Fisher in the same season is taking a risk unless they get a mature KPP back in the draft.

Others are self explanatory. I think the biggest question mark for next year is Eli. Payne looked like a Wil Johnston (?) replica - and unsure if he'll show anything. Let's hope he does better next year.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Agree with keeping Delaney especially if Fisher retires.

Definitely delist Saunders, Murdoch and Curren. If anybody wanted Lee I would trade him for any pick we could get but otherwise delist.

Longer I still think he's a strong chance to be traded depending on the offer.

If he stays I would still keep Holmes as insurance for 2018 because another year in the two's (assuming Hickey maintains his form) would seriously test Billy's desire to stay with us.

If we delist Holmes this year and Billy goes next year because of lack of opportunity, we will go from very solid to very ordinary very quickly.

The ruck situation really depends on how they are assessing the progress of Lewie. I certainly haven't seen enough to make a call either way which makes predicting future ruck structures almost impossible.

 

[Phoenix_9]

Delist: Murdoch, Curren, Shenton, Saunders, one of Delaney/Lee
Retire: Fisher

5 off main list, one off rookie list.

Think we have to upgrade Holmes or lose him. I'd sign him on a one year deal.

Trade in Steele.
Draft 3 young mids from the National draft.
Plus, I think one of the Irish blokes will need to go onto our main rookie list.

 

[saint_]

9,21,25,26,30,35,39,45 would be in the gun.

What might save some of these players is that we don't have a 2nd rounder in this draft, therefore the club would rather keep one of these players in lieu of a pick 70 player.

 

[bergholt]

9,21,25,26,30,35,39,45 would be in the gun.

What might save some of these players is that we don't have a 2nd rounder in this draft, therefore the club would rather keep one of these players in lieu of a pick 70 player.

One way or another we need to use three draft picks, because that's the rules. One of them can be a rookie promotion though. But there need to be three free senior list spots going into the ND. If we haven't managed to pick up an earlier draft pick or promote a rookie, we'll have to use pick 70-odd.

 

[Cornish]

Gut feeling is Shenton and Holmes will stay, Retire: Chips, Delist: Saunders, Curren, Murdoch trade Lee if someone like Freo sees some value in him.

 

[Mowman]

In a stuffed up way I kinda hope we trade Longer just so I don't have another year of reading the Hickey vs Longer crap.

Then we can have Hickey vs Pierce

 

[Ekomaira]

haha who voted O'Kearney

 

[Macgruber]

Retire: Fisher

Delist: Delaney Curren Saunders Lee Payne Shenton

 

[Persevering Saint]

Curren.

 

[bergholt]

90%: Saunders (r)
80%: Curren, Fisher
70%:
60%:
50%: Murdoch, Delaney, Shenton, Lee, Holmes (r)
40%:
30%:
20%:
10%: Payne (r)
0%: Minchington, Longer, O'Kearney (r), Pierce, Templeton, Coughlan (r), Dempster, Freeman

Looks pretty obvious on the basis of our votes.

RETIRED: Fisher
DELISTED: Curren, two of Murdoch, Delaney, Shenton, Lee
ROOKIES GONE: Saunders, maybe Holmes
TRADES: none predicted

That's probably 4 senior list spots, 1 rookie list spot (Holmes is cat B rookie). Sounds about right, though we won't even need 4 list spots unless we can find a trade - our fourth pick in the draft would be fifth at this point so very high - 80+.

 

[Jade Buddha]

When do they usually start the cull?

 

[AuntieBarrels]

kind of wanted Montagna to go at the end of the season to be honest...

he's a legend, but I just feel he's taking away games from our younger players, even though his experience is so valuable out there. The likes of D-mac (I know he's playing right now, but that's because J-Web is out), White, Rice etc will be missing out on games if Joey stays fit for 22 next year...

 

[Nutsngum]

kind of wanted Montagna to go at the end of the season to be honest...

he's a legend, but I just feel he's taking away games from our younger players, even though his experience is so valuable out there. The likes of D-mac (I know he's playing right now, but that's because J-Web is out), White, Rice etc will be missing out on games if Joey stays fit for 22 next year...

Contracted until next year.

 

[bird_man]

Gonna be tough this year. We have to take three guys in the draft and hopefully we can bring in a couple of recruits so that's 5 off the senio list.

Remembering Saunders and Holmes aren't on the main list so they won't count for a lot.

Fisher, Delaney, Lee, Curren and Shenton for me.

Saunders and Payne will probably go from the rookie list.

 

[bergholt]

Fisher, Delaney, Lee

The only problem with that is it's three tall defenders. Feels a bit aggressive - unless I suppose we bring one in. I suspect one of those three stays.

 

[bird_man]

The only problem with that is it's three tall defenders. Feels a bit aggressive - unless I suppose we bring one in. I suspect one of those three stays.

My hope is that we bring one recruit in as well as having Carlisle and a bigger, fitter Nick Coughlin (who has been in good form for Sandy).

 

[pebblesofsand]

I'd keep Delaney if we can't snag a cheap younger comparable player with some upside through trading.

 

[Punter!]

Let's look at our current ruck stocks.

IMO we will retain all 4 ruckmen.

Hickey at present is our 1st choice ruck.

Longer is obviously more than capable as 1st choice, but is coming back from a shoulder reco and a concussion related injury. At this point in time nothing wrong with holding 2 very capable ruckmen on the list. Gives us time to work out which is better, adds depth, competition for spots etc.. and inevitably 1 will be traded unless they can play in the same 22.

That is the reason we hold onto Holmes. He is purely insurance and back up and he is obviously ahead of Pierce for the 1st choice ruck based on getting a game v the Tigers. I can only assume Pierce doesn't yet have the tank or strength to play a whole.AFL game.in the ruck.

Pierce is the developing ruckman on the list, we've put 4 years into him and signs are promising. I think we see him as a ruck/fwd option as he has been.played there at sandy a fair bit.

Fast forward 2 years and I'd say:
- 1 of Hickey or Longer will have been traded for more opportunity at another club.
- Pierce comes into the side whenever Paddy or Bruce are injured to play ruck/fwd.
- Holmes remains on the list purely as backup and insurance.
- We draft in another developing ruckman.

 

[CHBench]

kind of wanted Montagna to go at the end of the season to be honest...

he's a legend, but I just feel he's taking away games from our younger players, even though his experience is so valuable out there. The likes of D-mac (I know he's playing right now, but that's because J-Web is out), White, Rice etc will be missing out on games if Joey stays fit for 22 next year...

Agreed. He's probably the one (out of Riewoldt, Dempster) I'd be comfortable with phasing out right now. Riewoldt goes when he wants to, and since Marchbank doesn't seem on our radar we need Dempster to fill the void for another 12 months whilst we look for another long term KD.

Fisher, Curren, and Saunders are most definitely cooked. Murdoch should be also based on output. Holmes i think will get enough interest to be traded for better opportunity. Delaney should be gone but may get a rookie life line if we don't bring in another KPD cheapie for insurance (Brown, McKenzie). Shenton and Lee won't ever improve us, so I see no bother retaining either of them, but that'll bring 6 free main lists spots (I think we'll bring in 2 players via trade/FA, leaves us with 4 picks and without a 2nd rounder - way too many at the back end). 1 of Lee/Shenton will stay IMO. Also pretty confident we will trade someone out for to place ourselves better in the draft, picking second at ~45 is not great when you've got 4-6 easy main list cuts.