Predicting premierships for teams - who can actually win a flag?

[Kermit]

When they were young and terrible or just average you could still see the makings of a future flag for some squads and often they then go on to win premierships. The Lions in 1999 were predictable, so was Port Adelaide in 2000, Geelong and St Kilda* in 2002-3, Hawthorn 2005-6.

I think Richmond, WC and WB of recent premiers were less predictable, I didn't see them coming.

Do you have the same instinct about certain teams? And if yes, should the unlikely teams change course now?


The teams I think could win a flag one day on their current trajectory:
Gold Coast
Fremantle (maybe)
Sydney
Port Adelaide (could pinch one this year, but I think it is in their future)
Brisbane (could pinch one this year, but I think it is in their future)


The teams/squads I think are unlikely to ever get there:
GWS
Carlton
WB
Essendon
Melbourne
St Kilda

Genuine question- where do Hawthorn and North Melbourne sit for you? Not on either list and both likely bottom 4 sides with limited prospects. Current trajectory - both should be firmly in the bottom group

 

[Bungeye]

There's no excuse for any grand final team to not have a pressure rating of 200+ in the dewy conditions. Anything less will be looked upon unfavorably by the masses.

 

[flipper83]

When they were young and terrible or just average you could still see the makings of a future flag for some squads and often they then go on to win premierships. The Lions in 1999 were predictable, so was Port Adelaide in 2000, Geelong and St Kilda* in 2002-3, Hawthorn 2005-6.

I think Richmond, WC and WB of recent premiers were less predictable, I didn't see them coming.

Do you have the same instinct about certain teams? And if yes, should the unlikely teams change course now?


The teams I think could win a flag one day on their current trajectory:
Gold Coast
Fremantle (maybe)
Sydney
Port Adelaide (could pinch one this year, but I think it is in their future)
Brisbane (could pinch one this year, but I think it is in their future)


The teams/squads I think are unlikely to ever get there:
GWS
Carlton
WB
Essendon
Melbourne
St Kilda

Do you have any sort of rationale for these choices?

I see that you haven't included hawthorn in your list of squads that are unlikely to get there. Does that mean that you think they are capable of winning a premiership with their current list?

Sydney are 15th on the ladder and have some good young talent but also a lot of older players. I'm not sure their current list without any additions is going to get them there.

On the flip side GWS made the grand final last year and don't really have any players so to suggest that their list is not capable of winning a grand final but Sydney is seem strange.

The dogs run our with one of the youngest teams each week and played finals last year and are thereabouts this year so I'm surprised they are on you list of teams that are unlikely to get there.