Predicting the AFC Round One Lineup

[Mego Red]

We've started to get a clearer sense of who looks like getting a round one berth - here's my pick.

F: Hentschel, Walker, Petrenko
HF: Vince, Tippett, Edwards
C: Reilly, Thompson, Mackay
HB: Doughty, Bock, Goodwin
B: Johncock, Rutten, Stevens

1st R: Maric, Knights, Shirley
Res: Moran, Mcleod, Otten, Douglas

EMER: Dangerfield, Gill, Jacky, Sellar
Inj: VB, Porps

I think the Crows will start Griff in the SANFL, and try Moran in that spot round one. Sellar would also be close. Otten and Petrenko to begin the year in the seniors. I'm assuming Truck will be back but VB and Porps will need a couple more weeks seasoning before they're ready.

I'm also assuming three marking forwards - Trent, Tipp and Tex - so no spot for Gill. I've gone for Tipp at CHF instead of Trent - hard to imagine a 191cm Walker holding down that spot at this stage. If we don't have Truck - I'd bring in Sellar.

 

[noddy]

We've started to get a clearer sense of who looks like getting a round one berth - here's my pick.

F: Hentschel, Walker, Petrenko
HF: Vince, Tippett, Edwards
C: Reilly, Thompson, Mackay
HB: Doughty, Bock, Goodwin
B: Johncock, Rutten, Stevens

1st R: Maric, Knights, Shirley
Res: Moran, Mcleod, Otten, Douglas

EMER: Dangerfield, Gill, Jacky, Sellar
Inj: VB, Porps

I think the Crows will start Griff in the SANFL, and try Moran in that spot round one. Sellar would also be close. Otten and Petrenko to begin the year in the seniors. I'm assuming Truck will be back but VB and Porps will need a couple more weeks seasoning before they're ready.

Might be nit-picking but would swap Trent & Taylor around & let the young buck run wild in the forward 50.

Put Petrenko down back, Doughty to the bench & have Bunji up forward.

No Truck in comes Gill to the bench & Otten down back.

 

[cmndstab]

Looks like a good (and sensible) effort. I always imagine Tippett as FF though so perhaps I'd put him there and Walker at CHF?


Actually, wouldn't surprise me if Gill got the nod over Petrenko and played CHF (sending Tippett FF and Walker to Petrenko's vacated position). I'd probably prefer to see Petrenko play but the fact remains that Gill is still our best and most natural CHF, despite his lack of goalkicking prowess. Petrenko is first choice in that forward line to leave which is why I drop him despite his great work in the preseason so far.


In the past I would have touted Griffin to still get the nod but after Maric was dropped for round 1 after a shocking preseason last year, I would expect the same to occur this year.

Overall a very solid effort

 

[Alex99]

Yeah agree with almost everything other have said but Andy Otten, Taylor Walker and Jarrod Petrenko have to play round 1.

Looks like a good (and sensible) effort. I always imagine Tippett as FF though so perhaps I'd put him there and Walker at CHF?

Why couldn’t Walker and Tippett play as duel FF? And have Hentschel at CHF with Petrenko floating round to gather the crumbs?

So a forward line of

FF~ Walker ~ Tippett ~ Shirley (midfield)
HF~ Petrenko ~ Hentschel ~ Vince (or Edwards)

Actually, wouldn't surprise me if Gill got the nod over Petrenko and played CHF (sending Tippett FF and Walker to Petrenko's vacated position). I'd probably prefer to see Petrenko play but the fact remains that Gill is still our best and most natural CHF, despite his lack of goalkicking prowess. Petrenko is first choice in that forward line to leave which is why I drop him despite his great work in the preseason so far.

Yeah my preferences would be for Petrenko but i agree that at this stage i still see Nick Gill playing a part. The forward line should be given to Walker, Hentschel and Tippett and for Gill to keep his place he will need to have a hell of a season.

 

[Geoffa32]

Vince as the crumbing forward???

He is better than that. He, VB Thommo and McKay will be our best mids this year. But I guess on field positions dont matter in todays footy.


Just heard Ivan Maric on FiveAA. I doubt Rutten will play round one. I like your (Kristoff) thinking on Sellar. If he is going to stay on in 2010 it will be as a defender. He is not in the class of Walker/Hentchel/Tippett and at risk of premature speculation (again) McKernan.

 

[Stiffy_18]

This 3 tall forward debate is interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if all Tippett, Walker, Hentschel and Gill get into the round 4 side.

Here is my reasoning

1. I don't think there are many (if any) sides out there that can match up on 4 talls in our forward line.
2. Our talls are not exactly your typical lumbering talls. Hentschel, Walker and Gill are all your agile, players that are good below their knees. Walker and Gill are around 191 cm which in today's game is roughly a good flanker size. Gill is also very quick, not just for his size but quick in general. Tippett is quick and agile for his size but he is probably the most 'lumbering' big out of the 4. There have been games when Gill has played on the wing for North Adelaide and done very well there.

With Henschel, Walker and Gill you don't lose much ability at ground level but you gain a hell of a lot in marking ability. I see no reason why they can't all play together and be a pretty tough players to match up on as a unit.

Our best scoring season under Craig was when we played Welsh, Hentschel, Perrie and McGregor as our key forwards. Now lets be honest here. Perrie and McGregor were hardly agile, mobile forwards. They worked their backsides off but they were hardly agile talls. Now with Tippett, Walker, Hentschel and Gill you have a lot of mobility and agility there. That 4 tall attack is much more agile and mobile than what we used in the past. With Gill in there, you gain an enourmous amount of defensive pressure in the forward line. Tippett also chases with intent to tackle and get the ball. So from both offensive and defensive perspective, I think the 4 talls could work well together.

 

[macca23]

The team wouldn't be cast in stone yet, but next week's selections will give us a good clue.

My guess at this stage, given that VB, Rutten, Porplyzia and Burton won't be available would be:

B: Otten Stevens Johncock

HB: McLeod Bock Goodwin

C: Mackay Thompson Knights

HF: Douglas Gill Hentschel

F: Walker Tippett Edwards

R: Maric Vince Shirley

I: Griffin Doughty Reilly Petrenko

 

[Cap]

I agree with Stiffy, this also it the best long term set-up. I can see us kicking 15 goals a game every week, but by the end of the season you would expect that quartet to be working well as a team.
The only question I have is that the AFC are obviously looking at Petrenko or Jacky to be crumbing forward, it just seems to leave the forward line short on experience.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Here's my guess. Somewhat similar to yours.

F: Hentschel Tippett Douglas
HF: Vince Walker Edwards
C: Reilly Thompson Mackay
HB: Mcleod Bock Goodwin
B: Johncock Sellar Stevens
R: Maric Knights Shirley
I: Otten Moran Doughty Petrenko
EMG: Dangerfield Jacky Gill

 

[adam10]

Did Stiffy play his normal backline role so far in the NAB cup/chellnges?

 

[Truck Rutten]

Here's my stab at it:

F: Tippett Walker Edwards
HF: McLeod Gill Hentschel
C: Knights Thompson Mackay
HB: Reilly Bock Goodwin
B: Stevens Rutten Johncock
R: Maric Vince Shirley
I: Griffin Doughty Douglas Otten

This is assuming no Porps and VB by round 1. If Rutten is still not right then amazingly Big Jim Sellar comes in and gets first look at FB.

Otten gets a gig due to his size and the flexibility he offers. Would have liked to have squeezed in Petrenko or a Cook/Sloane but even with our current injuries I just couldn't find room.

I really would have liked Danger to be playing but regrettably he just hasn't earnt a spot at this stage.

 

[NikkiNoo]

I agree with Stiffy.

Craig seems to have set our forward structure as always having 3 talls in the forward line and one on the bench. From yesterday's game, Tippett will stay out of the goal square and Gill, Hentschel, Walker alternate being the FP and the CHF. Tippett was then swapped with Maric and Griffin when he needed a rest. Although at one stage early in the first quarter it was Gill, Hentschel and Walker as the 3 'talls'.

 

[jarmanagic]

Teams look about right to me. We badly need Rutten to come up. With the retirements/delistings of Torney/Bassett/Massie we are v short for mid-tall defenders down back and Collingwood have a heap of marking forward. If Rutten doesn't come up (still got 3 weeks) I doubt we can win

 

[Encanto]

Here's my guess. Somewhat similar to yours.

F: Hentschel Tippett Douglas
HF: Vince Walker Edwards
C: Reilly Thompson Mackay
HB: Mcleod Bock Goodwin
B: Johncock Sellar Stevens
R: Maric Knights Shirley
I: Otten Moran Doughty Petrenko
EMG: Dangerfield Jacky Gill

Just wondering, who would you have on Barry Hall next week?

 

[SellarStardom]

Just wondering, who would you have on Barry Hall next week?

Well I hope Craig has the courage to play Big Jim there for a half at least to see how he goes against one of the best, certainyl has the height but does he have the nous and bastard to comete physically with Hall??
Be a great test for him, if he struggles swing Stevens on him and Sellar up to CHF for a little bit

 

[Mismatched]

Okay made 2 teams here, 1 for if Rutten, VB and Porps arn't ready and one for if they are, with a few notes below:

Without injured lot:

B: Johncock Sellar Stevens
HB: Goodwin Bock Reilly
C: Mcleod Thompson Mackay
HF: Edwards Hentschel Shirley
F: Douglas Tippet Walker
R: Maric, Knights, Vince
I: Doughty, Cook, Otten, Petrenko
E: Gill, Dangerfield, Moran

With full squad (minus Burton)
B: Johncock Rutten Stevens
HB: Goodwin Bock Reilly
C: Mcleod Thompson Mackay
HF: Edwards Hentschel Knights
F: Porplyzia Tippet Walker
R: Maric, van Berlo, Vince
I: Doughty, Shirley, Otten, Douglas
E: Petrenko, Cook, Sellar

Few notes:
-At the moment can't see Griffin holding his spot, has failed to improve on last season, infact he looks to have gone backwards.
-Whilst I have been a big supporter of Gill over the past year or so, I'm beginning to lose faith, his best is brilliant, but unfortunately his worst is horendous and comes out way to often. I would rather see us give the lead up CHF role to Stevens, just so much more reliable and has been in stellar form up forward of late. I'm not writing Gill off completely, I'd be happy for him to be there if he could co-exist with Tippet, Walker and Hentschel as some have suggested, and play further up the ground
-I've got Tippet as the back up ruck, or Sellar if he's playing, Maric can probably do 70%+ of the work anyway and can cover for Tippet up forward or we could go shorter every now and then just to mix it up.
-I see our tall forwards rotating a bit between the goal square and leading further up the ground, all can do it and I think its good to mix things up and not allow opposition defenders to get to settled.
-By the sounds Dangerfield isn't quite ready to step into the side, if he shows he is however, I'd fit him in pretty quickly.
-I see us being possibly 1 tall short, but then Otten could probably play as an extra tall if need be, so its not too much of an issue.

 

[beartoo]

Amazing how many people don't have Gill in their round 1 side. I reckon he'll be at CHF.

Johncock Rutten Stevens
Goodwin Bock McLeod
Knights Reilly McKay
Edwards Gill Shirley
Walker Hentschell Thompson

Maric Douglas Vince

Tippett Doughty Otten Petrenko

It is hard to predict a side as there are so many worthy players.
If Rutten doesn't come up, I'd bring Jimmy into the side and use Stevens as backup FB in case Jimmy gets heaps kicked on him early.
Don't know what's wrong with Griff. He certainly doesn't seem to be playing up to the potential we all know he has

 

[Elite Crow]

B: Reilly, Sellar, Johncock
HB: Mcleod, Bock, Goodwin
C: McKay, Knights, Vince
HF: Edwards, Stevens, Walker
F: Petrenko, Tippett, Hentschell

R: Maric, Thompson, Shirley
I/C: Douglas, Doughty, Otten, Moran

I agree with James37s points. Why play Gill? His disposal is shit and below what is required of an afl footballer. Stevens can play the same role and is a good shot at goal.
Id play Moran as the back up in ruck and FB if Sellar struggles. Provides alot more versality and depending on how Collingwood line up we may need his height.
Naming Sellar at FB depends on how he goes against Hall this week. Does a half decent job and hes locked in.
Petrenko adds the bite, speed and desperation up forward we need.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Huuuuuge game for Sellar this week. There is an opening for him. Can he take it? I really hope so but come R1 i believe we will see Stevens and Bock in the key defensive posts against Anthony and Co. Personally, i have less issue with swapping Bock around and playing him deeper when required. He did it against Buddy here last year deep in the 50 and got 20+ possessions and plenty of rebound so it's less an issue in todays footy imo. Still room for a 3rd tall with a bit of run who can man-up on a tall so the spot for Sellar/Moran remains.

We can allow for this flexibility by ditching Griffin this week and playing Moran/Sellar as 2R/FB combo to see who wins the points in which position. No way Griffin can play back (or anywhere bar ruck really) so his poor form and lack of flexibility see him gone with Rutten absent.

I also love the 4 tall forward option (considering our dearth of natural small forwards, lets play to our 'strengths', though that may be overstating it a bit). If Craig doesn't want all 4 on the ground at once that leaves only one spot for Sellar or Moran as 2R/3rd defender. Sellar had a good weekend but I'd give it to Moran at this stage.


My Round 1 (no VB, Porps, Rutten)

B: Sellar Bock Johncock

HB: Goodwin Stevens McLeod

C: Knights Vince Mackay

HF: Hentschel Gill Edwards

F: Douglas Tippett Walker

1R: Maric Shirley Thompson

Int: Moran, Reilly, Otten, Doughty

Emerg: Petrenko, Cook, Griffin

** Love to squeeze Petrenko in for Doughty but it wont happen. Other option is to take out Sellar/Moran and juggle it around a bit.

 

[Vantz]

From what i have seen this Pre-Season i believe our Round One team will be the following: (Exceptions due to injury; Rutten, Symes, Van Berlo, Porplyzia and Burton)

Round 1
B: Reilly - Sellar - Johncock

HB: Otten - Bock - Goodwin

C: Gill - Thompson - Knights

HF: Douglas - Stevens - Walker

F: McLeod - Tippett - Shirley

R: Maric - Edwards - Vince

I: Doughty - Petrenko - Mackay - Hentschel

My assumptions on our team needing only 1 ruckman are based on the belief we have no real quality second ruckman. i would argue Maric should be able to handle 70% TOG with a combination of Tippett and or Sellar rucking for 30% TOG.

Also i have gone with Gill on a wing as i believe he could play the Richo type role and be used as a link man between defence and attack. However i dont believe this will occur. I have placed Reilly in a Back Pocket, as he has been used in this position during drills this Pre-Season.

This can also be said for Shirley who is attempting to develop another role as his career progresses. On a few occassions this Pre-Season, Shirley has been practicing up Forward and could release a Richie Douglas or Porplyzia to play more minutes in the center.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

B: Petrenko Stevens Johncock

HB: Radar Bock Goodwin

C: Mackay Thompson Knights

HF: Macca Gill Hentschel

F: Walker Tippett Edwards

R: Maric Vince Shirley

I: Griffin Doughty Douglas Otten

Emg Danger Sloane Cook

If Proplyzia is fit, Petrenko wiill drop out

If Rutten is fit I would restructure and play a 3 man tall forward line and either Gill or Hentchel to miss......

However if Gill has a quiet game next week I would consider Sloane, Cook or Danger to replace Gill

 

[Crow-mo]

Gill will play CHF in round 1.

Hentschel won't be risked, tippet is more suited to FF at this stage, and Walker has played zero games.

Stevens to full back. almost def in my mind.

 

[Crow-mo]

The team wouldn't be cast in stone yet, but next week's selections will give us a good clue.

My guess at this stage, given that VB, Rutten, Porplyzia and Burton won't be available would be:

B: Otten Stevens Johncock

HB: McLeod Bock Goodwin

C: Mackay Thompson Knights

HF: Douglas Gill Hentschel

F: Walker Tippett Edwards

R: Maric Vince Shirley

I: Griffin Doughty Reilly Petrenko

broadly I agree with this. particularly the ottens in the back pocket call.

 

[Mego Red]

Gill will play CHF in round 1.

Hentschel won't be risked, tippet is more suited to FF at this stage, and Walker has played zero games.

Stevens to full back. almost def in my mind.

Hentschel will play, He's played throughout the preseason, so it's pointless to suddenly think it is a risk to play him round one. They may stash a fourth forward on the bench, so that may be Gill's opening. I absolutely don't rate him, as he just doesn't have the skills to be an AFL footballer, but he may offer more than one of our developing forwards at this stage.

 

[cmndstab]

There's been a few calls saying Hentschel won't play round one, both on here and in the media. I don't really understand it. Why wouldn't you play him, if he's playing all four preseason matches? (And the IAS match) It couldn't possibly be on form, so it must be out of concern for his injury but he's shown no signs of being in danger of further injury and at the moment looks like he needs gametime more than anything else.