Quigley's 2012 Mock

[Quigley]

Any thoughts on Sam Lowrie and/or Harry Marsh? Two players some of the knowledgable colts watchers on our board are keen for WC to select, not selected at all in your mock.

Lowrie should be in there. I forgot about him and was reminded about him about two days ago when I was in the final stages and couldn't be bothered going back and writing another review, reorganising everyone and then dropping someone out. I would expect him to go in the 30-40 range.

Marsh was deliberate. I thought he was pretty poor defensively at the Champs and there were better medium defenders around. Marsh is a fair chance to be picked up but would be touch and go wrt to the first three rounds so leaving him out I don't think is a big reach.

 

[Quigley]

I noticed this too.

Pick #59 belongs to the Suns, as does pick #60. But since we're using these picks as a rookie upgrade (Horsley - #59) and zone access (Cameron - #60), perhaps Quigley skipped over them? As they aren't 'live' picks.

Also Quigs, have you got a write-up for Clay Cameron? If so, I would love to read it. I'd even put in on Clay's thread on our board so others have a better understanding of his capabilities.

Yeah I got a bit lazy with the checking up post trade period draft positions obviously.

I haven't written up Cameron and might after the draft when I do a few of the academy players that I saw at the Champs.

 

[Quigley]

Sensational read mate!!

As for the phantom side of it I'm not so sure on Hannath at 21. We obviously need ruck depth, but our young midfield stocks outside of the best 22 IMO are abysmal. When I look at our projected midfield in the VFL next year I see just two genuine midfielders there in Seedsman and the perenerally injured Josh Thomas who were drafted at 76 and 75 in their respective drafts.

Getting at least 2 midfielders with that 3 pick cluster would be a no brainer because as a club we need to again rejuvenate with top end talent through there especially with the likes of Hrovat and Vlastuin still in the pool. I realise they may be more of the lesser liked players in your opinion, but they were selected around then and I'd prefer we err on the side of small rather than tall in this draft.

Also I'm sure it's a quirk more than anything, but something tells me we'll draft a Victorian with one of our first four picks. Hine is a consistent recruiter with the types he looks for so to pick exclusively from interstate (3 from SA and one from WA) would be breaking the mould IMO.

In saying all that you posting one of Vlastuin or Hrovat with 21 and I'd have been wrapt with how things went. So I can't complain really.

Fair enough on the need for midfield depth but I don't really see you needing best 22 mids and I wouldn't usually address a position where you only need depth in the first round. When I look at Collingwood I see the next group of mids coming from the guys already in your team. Pendlebury and Thomas will only be 25 next year and Beams and Sidebottom are younger than that. Then there is Fasolo who I think will be a pretty good midfielder when he gets the chance and Blair might do alright as well. Krak could also play in the midfield more if needed for a year or two more.

I also accept your comments regarding the history of drafting non-Victorians but I would point out that Rendell is now off siding in there and may have a bit of an influence. He may not Rendell previously has shown no problem with drafting out of state talent.

 

[Quigley]

Nice work Quiqley, a huge amount of effort has gone into this and as always you've put yourself out there which isn't always easy.

Interesting that you have Garlett very high but Menzel quite low, certainly understand the concerns over Menzel's body, but it seems as though that has seen him slip whereas Garlett has been simply rated on talent without too much consideration on whether or not he has the attitude to make it at the next level. Personally would love the Dogs to end up with Garlett because he is a great talent and a type we really need, as you suggest, hopefully he'll be in the mix at 22. Very keen on Menzel, he is an elite talent although if he can't stay on the park, could be a massive bust at 5 or 6.

Harrison Marsh was a noticeable absentee for mine, any reason why?

Dogs you are forgetting that I have nothing riding on this and everyone likes to look good in retrospect. In a couple of years when Garlett is gunning it I can look back and comment how stupid those professionals were for not being able to see that Garlett should have gone as high as I had him. Similarly if the worst happens with Menzel I can look back and say those clowns obviously should have rated his injury risk higher. If it works out the other way I can conveniently forget where I rated them

I do rate Garlett higher on talent though than Menzel and I think he also plays a position which is both easier to predict and more valuable. Menzel I am not as sold on as others and I think I prefer Mayes in that role even disregarding injury issues. There are a stack of tricky medium forwards who don't work out each year and I am not sold on his midfield potential. Also if you asked me if I would prefer to take my chances on turning a bloke around with some drinking and smoking issues versus a guy who has already had LARS at 18 and other assorted soft tissue injuries I take the chance on the drinker and smoker. Plenty of those guys have seen the light whereas most of the guys coming in with stuffed knees do not live up to potential.

 

[footymaad]

Quigley Great effort - love the full assessment of player strenghts and weaknesses.
As someone who followed the Qld under 18s closely this year, watching all their games, was particularly interested in your write up of the Qld boys, and would have to agree with most of your comments on them. I agree Wallin's good finish to the season, esp in the NEAFL finals, makes him a real dark horse.
As a Qld footy supporter hope to see a few make lists - realistically may be more likely for most through rookie draft, but we shall see.
Somewhat disappointing for the Qld boys that this year the Suns have to sig reduce their list, so Cameron the only zone selection - would have liked to see Boston taken by them as well. Either they dont feel they need another player of his type, or they don't rate him highly enough to offer their second pick - in the 50's - for him, which would fit with your own assessment.

 

[Demonheart]

“It appears to me that unlike 2010 and 2011, there is a greater divergence of opinion amongst clubs as to the relative merits of this draft cohort. Some of the selections that have been speculated in the media and online also support that view. Therefore, it may well be that on November 22 there are a few surprises.”

Great effort mate, once again you've out done yourself. I look forward to coming back to this thread after draft day to check out the kids we pick up.

I have a query on mids, have you picked them in order of how you rate them or who you think the clubs will take? If you haven't picked them in order can you please give me your top 5 mids?

Everyone thinks Wines will go to Melbourne but I'm not sure if it's because he really is the third best mid available or if people think we'll take him because of other reasons.

 

[DREAM TEAM BUFF]

Quigley i love reading your mocks

What do you think of Leigh Osborne ?

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

Thanks for your fine efforts. That was a pleasure to read and you obviously have a terrific knowledge of the underage comp. I particularly liked the difference you've displayed to a lot of accepted wisdom on some players which was food for thought and makes this draft even more intriguing. I reckon this is one of the more fascinating drafts I can remember simply for the number of question marks over some of the top shelf talent. There seems to be quite a few possibilities outside the top 4-6. Cheers. Will return here after the big event!

 

[juzzo]

Nice work. Surprised to see your comments on Macrae. A smooth kicking action like Dal Santo? Good penetration? I've read nothing but the opposite.

 

[Lach72]

Good stuff. Mason Shaw...after reading that review, why exactly are we taking him?

 

[Quigley]

Good stuff. Mason Shaw...after reading that review, why exactly are we taking him?

Hehe good question and it would not surprise me to see him fall more. He is tall and can kick goals. If the Freo staff believe they can get him focused and working hard then he could be a great pick at 17. At the start of the year he was probably a top 5 candidate. He has fallen down the order but it gets to the stage where the talent starts to outweigh the risk and given the needs of Freo I thought that might be at 17.

 

[Quigley]

Quigley i love reading your mocks

What do you think of Leigh Osborne ?

I think he is in with a pretty good show to get picked up somewhere this year. I rate him and think I might have had him in my mock last year from memory.

 

[Quigley]

Nice work. Surprised to see your comments on Macrae. A smooth kicking action like Dal Santo? Good penetration? I've read nothing but the opposite.

I don't think there is much wrong with his kicking action. Some of his decision making can be a bit suspect on occasions. When I watched him play I noted that he reminded me of Dal Santo so I went with that. The top 10 or so guys are all guys I watched pretty closely and I am not really worried by what others are saying.

 

[blynd_freddie]

Quality stuff again Quigley - always seems to be 2 plus years of research and almost 2 plus years of quality reading!

Many thanks for sharing the effort.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

3 days until the predictions and the actual results become comparable.

 

[Quigley]

3 days until the predictions and the actual results become comparable.

I have not tried to pick what I think the clubs will do.

Give it a couple of years and then compare where I have them with how they actually play. There will be some wins and quite a few wrong picks. So be it. If I was worried about getting them wrong I would have stopped doing this some years ago.

 

[eaglespremiers]

42. North Melbourne

Okay here I am just giving North my big faller. It has gotten to the stage where I have dropped him down enough and it’s time to just get him off the books.

Taylor Garner
DOB: 8/1/94 Ht: 187 Wt: 77

I have to say I am surprised with the amount of attention Garner is getting coming into this draft. I think everyone who missed the Fyfe train when he was a junior is jumping on Garner expecting him to be similar. Whilst I do see quite a lot of similarities I also see a lot of risk with him and not a lot of performance to back up his high rating. Now I admit I didn't see his game against WA where he managed 20 disposals and 3 goals in, by all reports, a great game in Perth but from what I have seen I am not yet sold. You have to give him some slack for playing through 4 shoulder dislocations in 4 games at the Champs but his shoulder problems like those of Fyfe could be a career limiting injury and must be taken into consideration when evaluating him. Shoulders are notorious for reoccurring and the chances of him having multiple injuries and operations over his career are high.

Garner only played 8 TAC games this year, none since 14 July and whilst he was in the best on all but one game he only managed 4 goals in those 8 games. That is hardly the type of return you would expect from a half forward you were paying a first rounder to select. Garner does have some flair about the way he plays and can pull off the freakish on occasion. He is a good athlete having a nice leap and pace which he uses well not the park. People are buying into the potential in a big way with Garner which I guess is fair enough but the risks are significant for a player who missed selection in the TAC last year through injury and other issues and lost games again this year due to injury.

Apart from injury concerns I also have a few questions about his kicking. His kicking skills often look very good but he is prone to pulling out very poor clangers semi-regularly. Not only is the consistency of the execution in question but the decision making as well. Sometimes you do wonder what he was thinking. Often it seems like lapses in concentration and it might be a lack of game time over the last two years has left him rusty and his focus is not quite what it should be.

This is exactly what I thought having watched Garner at TAC Cup level this year.
Many times the Stingray's would play him one-out in the forward 50 and whilst he looked rather impressive when he contested for marks etc but for me I thought he wasn't involved enough.
The kid has talent though.

 

[CrustyDennis]

This is exactly what I thought having watched Garner at TAC Cup level this year.
Many times the Stingray's would play him one-out in the forward 50 and whilst he looked rather impressive when he contested for marks etc but for me I thought he wasn't involved enough.
The kid has talent though.

In fairness to Garner, can you please check his stats. He kicked 14 goals in 8 games according to the Stingrays website , not 4!

 

[eaglespremiers]

In fairness to Garner, can you please check his stats. He kicked 14 goals in 8 games according to the Stingrays website , not 4!

I didn't quote stats.
Quigley did.
My comments were clearly impressions.

 

[CrustyDennis]

I didn't quote stats.
Quigley did.
My comments were clearly impressions.

Sorry eagles, I accidentally replied to your comment when i was making my statement, I'll figure this out! Oops!

 

[Travis bloke]

Nice work by Quigley and i compliement him on his indepth reviews with all players.Gee very in depth.

But unfortunately Quigs i donnot agree with 3 of the 4 picks that you have us as picking up.
The only one i would agree with is Simpson yes grab him.But obrien who has no mongrel i would not pick up.Membrey Stringer are easily better options.Even Stewart is a better option that obrien. Pass on Obrien.

Nick Vlastuin,horvat, Lonegan even garlett way before hannath.If we can't get daniel Currie, Hannath will be there at 39 for sure.

Wilson another half back flanker who plays loose,we don't need have too many already.KPP Backman best available or kpp forward yes.Even best available midfielder at 21 would be better we need grunt and speed but kpp are gold too.

By the way in this morning's paper Melbourne have indicated they are not picking Wines but will go for Toumpas.There you go furfies already

 

[Quigley]

I will agree to disagree with you on O'Brien. He is very much like Sam Reid for me and I think he would complement Cloke very well.

Stringer I think should be gone but if he is still there then yep you guys should grab him and run. Membrey is undersized and there are big questions about how his game will translate to the AFL. He could go to you guys at 21 but he could also easily be there 50+. Plenty of his sort overlooked each year.

I originally had you taking Hannath at 39 but the concerns about your ruck situation are very valid. Jolly looks done and Witt is not going to stand up to a full season. Collingwood must have a plan to address this in this draft and whilst that is most likely to be at 39 it would not surprise me at all if they moved at 21 instead and took no risks. Plus puting Hannath in there at 21 was sure to annoy the Collingwood supporters so win-win

 

[Quigley]

In fairness to Garner, can you please check his stats. He kicked 14 goals in 8 games according to the Stingrays website , not 4!

Makes more sense although still not a huge return.

FWIW I took the goals scored off the games log section of the sportingpulse site. The season statistics does list him as having kicked 14 goals. Anyone confirm which is correct?

 

[Allsainters66]

Great mock! Love the right ups to each player. Can't see the saints choosing both Paparone and Smith due to their bad kicking. What are your thoughts on saints possibly getting Garlett?

 

[doggies ftw]

Would really appreciate anything you have on Pruden!!