Preview R8 Match Preview: Dockers v Pies - By DaVe86

[DaVe86]

AFL Premiership Round 8
Fremantle V Collingwood

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Friday May 14
Subiaco Oval 6:40 PM (Local Time) 8:40 PM (EST Time)
Perth Forecast Perth Radar


Ladder:

Season Win/Loss

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[DaVe86]

Who would’ve thought that the Round 8 clash between Fremantle and Collingwood would be the battle between 1st and 2nd? Certainly not me! The Dockers host Collingwood this Friday night at Subiaco in a match that will be an absolute cracker.

Fremantle have honestly been the story of 2010 to date. Like Collingwood, they are on 6 wins and 1 loss and are playing some really good footy. The Dockers have always been mocked for some very interesting drafting and recruiting decisions in the past. But under this new regime, it has been clever and gutsy recruitment that has seen such an incredible climb up the ladder in such a short period of time.

High draft picks have all been terrific hits, trading has been much more cunning and most importantly, the utilisation of mature aged rookies has seen the Dockers develop a readymade midfield and defence.

On the other hand, Collingwood is now beginning to reap the benefits of aggressive trading and drafting as well. Jolly and Luke Ball have hit their straps and put together a solid month of footy. The core group is made up of a number of rookie list selections who have all come good. Importantly, Nathan Brown, Ben Reid and Chris Dawes are beginning to repay the faith of the club as well. Steele Sidebottom and Dayne Beams have matured so much in such a short period of time and are proving fantastic draft selections.


No doubt a full house will attend the Friday night game. So let’s delve a bit deeper into the game.


The Formline:

Each side has only lost 1 game. Interestingly, both sides lost their game to St.Kilda, but came very close to upsetting them at Etihad Stadium. It’s still early days in the season so it’s essential to look at the calibre of the sides which have lost to Collingwood and Fremantle.

Freo have beaten Geelong. So they can claim the bigger scalp. However it was an undermanned Geelong side. Nevertheless, the Dockers were brilliant in that game and thoroughly deserved the win.

The other big scalp for the Dockers was the win last round against Brisbane at the Gabba. The criticism of Fremantle has always been their ability to travel. This year, the Dockers have already registered a win at Etihad Stadium, and their win last week was their first ever at the Gabba. They also played very well against St.Kilda at Etihad. Their form on the road will define them this year and whether they are ready to take the next step.

Collingwood has had a relatively easier run over the last month. However, the win against Carlton by 52 points is beginning to look very impressive considering the Blues beat Geelong and St.Kilda on either side of that game. Despite perhaps having a few easier games, Collingwood has completely smashed its opponents over the last month, winning by an average margin of around 60 points. The Pies also have the big scalp of the Western Bulldogs who I still believe should be considered as one of the premiership favourites.


Recent History

The last meeting between these 2 sides saw a comprehensive win to Collingwood. The Pies ran out 84 point winners at the MCG in Round 13. However, recent history against the Dockers is basically useless because this is a very different Fremantle side and they are playing a totally new game-plan.

The votes last year went to Didak, Swan and Hasleby respectively. Swan was on fire with 41 disposals, whilst Didak had 39 and kicked 2 goals. Jack Anthony slotted 4 goals, and Cloke 3. Hasleby was clearly the best Docker with 33 disposals, whilst Aaron Sandilands stood tall with 44 hitouts and 25 disposals.

In 2008, Fremantle registered a 24 point win in Round 22, whilst Collingwood won the Round 1 clash by 24 points.


At the Selection Table

Mark Harvey has indicated a few of his players may be a little sore following a 6 day break. The Dockers have had to travel to Brisbane during this time, so the shorter break may be a factor. Alex Silvagni was a late withdrawal for Kepler Bradley last round and will come into strong contention for a recall. Silvagni has been a good find in 2010 and has stood tall in the absence of Grover.

That said, Grover is now fit and will be pressing for selection again. Nick Suban is also off the injury list and looks very likely to return as his hardness may be required.

Collingwood looks likely to regain Wellingham who is not listed on the injury list. Wellingham fell victim to the mysterious ‘calf’ injury that seems to be plaguing players who are due for a rest. No doubt he is ready to go and his pace will be essential on Subiaco.

Fraser will come into contention, but Malthouse faces a big decision whether to leave Wood in the side or bring back Fraser. I have a feeling Wood may get another go, however Fraser’s agility may be a good counter attack against Sandilands.

Simon Prestigiacomo played in the VFL last week and will be recalled soon. I don’t think it will be this week, but his name will be floated.

Macaffer and O’Bree seem most vulnerable. However, O’Bree was good last week. I think O’Bree has been vital to Collingwood in games against Fremantle because he is very good at reading the ball out of Sandilands hands. You basically have to concede the hitout against Sandilands, so O’Bree becomes crucial.

I think the change will be Wellingham in for Macaffer. Although Didak did seem to suffer an injury last week. There were a few impressive performances in the VFL as well from Anthony, Lockyer, Leigh Brown, Ryan Cook, Tyson Goldsack and Simon Buckley.


A look at Fremantle

So where have the Dockers turned it around this year?

As I said, clever recruiting is largely a factor. The Dockers are no doubt a young side with guys like Palmer, Morabito and Hill running through the midfield. However, it has been the mature aged recruit Michael Barlow who has had the biggest influence. Whether the young Dockers can maintain this level of output will be interesting, but at the moment they look very sharp.


The second factor which has led to the Fremantle resurgence has been the obvious change in game-plan. The Dockers are actually playing a very similar style to Collingwood right now. They are implanting a forward press, and have been committed to this style even when the heat is on. Basically, what this game-plan requires is all the defenders to come up into the forward half and try to lock the ball inside the forward 50. This makes it very hard for the opposition to clear their defensive half and forces a lot of turnovers. It has worked for both Collingwood and Fremantle, and explains why they are 1st and 2nd on the ladder to date.

The obvious weakness of this game-plan is when the opposition manage to get through the zone. It usually means there are loose numbers running forward and means the odd goal will be conceded.


The third factor is big Sandilands. The media may be talking about Ablett and Judd, but Sandi is the most valuable player in the competition right now. There, I’ve said it. Sandilands has always won hitouts, but this year he actually has a midfield around him who can utilise his advantage. He also pushes forward and has developed into a great contested mark. He is good for a goal a game. There’s not much any side can do about it either. He is simply too tall, and has really improved his mobility.

Fourthly, Pavlich is on fire. He has gone forward again, but is still pushing into the midfield when his side needs a bit of drive.

Finally, the Fremantle defence has held up. Tarrant continues to improve as a defender, whilst McPharlin has been very solid as well. Hayden, McPhee, Silvagni, Broughton and McPhee have all done jobs for their team.


Must Stop:

Aaron Sandilands: It’s easy to say, harder to do. As I said, in my opinion he is the most valuable player in the AFL right now. Malthouse has Jolly at his disposal this year, so I feel a bit more confident about the Collingwood ruck division. However, Jolly is 11 centimetres shorter than Sandilands. This is the equivalent of sending Pendlebury up into the ruck against Jolly.

No doubt guys like Ball and Pendlebury become important. They have to read the ball out of Sandilands hands. When he pushes forward, it is important Jolly goes with him so he can be double teamed. Sandi will have around 40 hitouts and will ruck about 90% of the game. This may lead Mick to play Josh Fraser and try to run off him hard in order to puff him out. Otherwise, Mick may elect to stick with Wood to tag team with Jolly in the ruck and try to wear him out that way.


Stephen Hill: Hill was given the perfect 10 votes by the coaches last week and is having a terrific year. Many criticised Fremantle when they elected Hill over Rich, but the decision was clearly right. This kid is a freak. He has lightning pace and a precise left-foot kick. I thought he played a cracking game last week, picking up over 30 disposals and hitting the chest of his team-mates on most of them. He will be hard to stop, so someone with pace like Wellingham or Johnson should be given the task.


Players to Watch:

Matthew Pavlich – Goes without saying that Pav is the key. Lloyd considered Pavlich to be the equivalent of Riewoldt and Jonathon Brown last week, and I tend to agree. This is a guy who is playing CHF, yet still going into the centre bounces and picking up 25+ disposals. It’s very hard to find a matchup, so I think Malthouse will use a combination of players. If Presti is not back, the job will fall to Nathan Brown. When Pav goes into the midfield, I think Swan will go head to head with him.

Paul Hasleby – A very underrated player, and his form has been terrific this year with the less attention. Guys like Barlow and Hill are taking the focus, meaning Hasleby has been quietly going about his business. Most teams still consider Hasleby the number 1 midfielder at the Dockers, so I think we’ll see Ball go head to head with his at the contests.

Chris Mayne – Mayne I suppose plays a make-shift full forward role, and leads high up the ground. He hasn’t taken a game by the scruff of the neck yet, however he has been impressive considering he missed most of last year through injury. He was the difference late last week when he went to defence to force a rushed behind, then ran forward to kick the sealer. I think Maxwell should be given the job or perhaps Toovey as he can follow him up the ground.

Paul Duffield – Teams are now sending forward tags onto him as he is so damaging off the half back. He had his breakout year in 2009, and has carried his form into 2010. He was particularly terrific in the Geelong game, proving he lifts for big games. I think Dayne Beams or Dale Thomas should go forward tag him, and look to get dangerous in offence. Thomas in particular has done this role to effect in the past.

David Mundy – Very much a leader of this club, and has found consistency this year. He was very good last week with 29 disposals and he typically uses it very well. Collingwood should keep an eye on him.

Hayden Ballantyne – The new Jeff Farmer. Freo fans love him, opposition fans hate him. He has a mouth on him, but there is no doubt the guy can play. He is quick, tries hard and loves a goal. I think Malthouse will put Harry O’Brien onto him and look to blanket him. Ballantyne is good at getting the crowd involved so keeping him quiet is essential.


A look at Collingwood

My major concern this week is having to play on Subiaco. Though Collingwood does not travel often, the Pies have proven to be a terrific travelling side. So having to play in front of a hostile crowd is not a concern, but Subiaco presents unique challenges. In particular, the length of the ground is an issue.

Collingwood is heavily reliant on the forward press. But Subiaco must be a hard ground to zone as it is so much longer than the G or Etihad. Collingwood’s zone typically covers to the start of the centre square. Typically, this is 60 metres of the ground. At Subi, covering to the square requires 70 metres of the ground to be covered. So this may stretch the zone a bit, which potentially opens up holes.

That said, the Pies need only look at Fremantle tapes to see how to zone Subiaco as they have been doing it to great effect. No doubt this is an advantage to Fremantle however who have developed their zone specifically for the length of Subiaco.

As I said however, Collingwood travel terrifically, and will no doubt be setting themselves for this game.

It is also important to note that 31 of Collingwood’s goals in the last 2 weeks have come from turnovers. If Freo limit their turnovers, they will be well on the way to winning. Collingwood’s forward line pressure is the best in the comp. For Collingwood to win, their tackling pressure has to be switched on.



Must Stop

Leon Davis – Leon loves playing in his home state and on Subiaco. His form seemed to be back last week, and he may perhaps be running of an ankle injury which has slowed him up a bit in recent week. I have no doubt Fremantle will be putting a tight tag on him. Perhaps Broughton will get the job. Leon is playing purely as a small forward.

Steele Sidebottom – After 5 goals last week, the Dockers will no doubt be putting some attention into Rusty this week. He is playing as a small forward and is putting a stack of forward line pressure on. He is a terrific crumber, and simply knows how to get front and centre in marking contests. Though his goals looked simple last week, it was a case of terrific positioning and footy smarts that saw him play his best ever AFL game to date.


Other players of Interest

Heath Shaw – Opposition teams are no doubt back to considering Heath Shaw to be the key to stopping Collingwood. His run off half back is essential, and his form has been terrific. North Melbourne let him run free last week and he ran riot. I think Freo will use someone Like DeBoer on him. If DeBoer holds his spot, he has been responsible for forward line tagging and will no doubt be given the task on Shaw. Otherwise McPhee may go forward to make him accountable

Alan Didak – He is the guy who gets the tag at Collingwood, and I think Crowley will get the job. Swan and Pendlebury are the other candidates for the tag...but I think Didak’s form will see him get the close checking Crowley. Didak should be well suited to the open spaces of Subiaco, however it will be interesting to see how he recovers from an ankle concern last week. The shorter break could affect him.

Luke Ball – With Sandilands likely to dominate the ruck, no one becomes more important for Collingwood than Luke Ball. Freo lack a real out and out in and under, so his aggression around the stoppages could be a huge advantage for Collingwood. Likely to go head to head with Hasleby and Barlow. It amuses me to hear commentators say “Luke Ball has played 2 good games in a row now”. Seriously, Luke Ball has strung a fantastic 5 weeks together now.

Travis Cloke – Cloke is in good form again. Trav will most likely face off against Chris Tarrant who is pretty much the player Cloke took over from. Tarrant is in All Australian form right now so it is going to be a bumper battle. I think McPharlin will go to Dawes which should allow the Cloke v Tarrant matchup to happen. Cloke will lead Tarrant higher up the ground that he is perhaps used to, but footspeed, strength and size is about even so it will be a cracking battle between 2 in form players.

Scott Pendlebury – He is in good form, but the depth of the Collingwood midfield sees him escape tags. His footspeed may be shown up on Subiaco, but his footskills are essential. He has put together a solid month of footy after a slowish start.

Dale Thomas – Still in my opinion Collingwood’s best player in 2010. Continues to get huge statistics and will really enjoy the pace of Subiaco. He will be vital as Fremantle employ a strict zone and his foot-speed is essential to break through. I would not be surprised to see him forward tag Duffield either. No doubt one of Collingwood’s most important players this Friday night.


Fantasy Update

It’s a big game for me. I have 4 Fremantle players and 2 Magpies.

Expect Pav to do well. Collingwood will not employ a tight tag on him when he goes into the middle, and he will be too strong on a lead for Nathan Brown. Sandilands is always a captain choice, although his record against Jolly whilst in Sydney is not as good as other sides.

Barlow will be given space to move, as will Hasleby. Didak will be closely checked but should still pop up for a few points. I’m expecting Shaw to be well checked though he has a few more tricks this year to deal with forward tags. I also think Duffield will dominate.

Hopefully Silvagni returns because he is still building on value. Rhys Palmer could be a good sideways trade as he should average around 90 from here.


DaVe’s Soapbox

The Breast Cancer appeal last Friday night was obviously a terrific event, however it was marred by a terrible stuff up from the AFL in placing Melbourne in the same colours as the umpires. It had a bearing on the result, as Melbourne went to the umpire on 2 occasions in the last quarter and lost by under a kick. It was also difficult for the Doggies. Considering the AFL has given Collingwood so much grief about a clash strip, it amazes me that they would allow the umpires to go out in the exact some colours (even including socks). Is the AFL fair dinkum about clash strips, or is it just a matter of increasing merchandising sales?

Also, I thought the game was marred by a few critical goal-umpiring decisions. The field umpire on 2 occasions overruled the goal umpire. This obviously swung the result as the Demons lost by under a goal. In all honesty, I think the field umpire got it right both times, however surely AFL has reached a point where a field umpire can call on video evidence to clarify a goal umpiring decision. It should only be used to assess goal...and not in the field of play. It took the umpires a minute or so to talk the decision over, which gave the sides plenty of times to set up. Therefore the argument about the video slowing the game down is not applicable. Purely for goals, I think video technology should be utilised...as it is with every other sport.


The Wrap Up

OK, a bit of a longer preview this week, but obviously I’m pretty fired up. It is a battle of 2 in-form sides playing similar game-plans. So it is interesting on so many levels.

Fremantle’s midfield is still so inexperienced, so Collingwood should have an edge around stoppages. However, the advantage Freo get playing on Subiaco should not be discounted. They have a number of exceptionally talented youngsters who thrive on the open spaces of Subi and will cause Collingwood a lot of head-aches.

If Pav fires, it could be good-bye to the Magpies. However, Collingwood has so many scoring options. I’m expecting a classic.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86

 

[Ant85]

Good write up.

I always look forward to reading your previews.

 

[Lockyer24]

I am surpremely confident in the team to get the job done, more than I have in a long while. The long Subiaco ground though, I am having nightmares about getting caught out once they get through our zone and snagging cheap goals. Think our defence will have to be on their game to win.

 

[mattys123]

Great preview again Dave.

God I hope they play Presti, I can just see Reid and Brown being exposed on the fast break like they were several times against Carlton.

We need Presti in this game IMO, he can be the one player who sits out of the forward zone, and reads the ball better then any other defender we have.

In regards to who goes out for Sharrod, I hope it isn't MaCaffer, but it seems O'Bree did enough last week, and has enough reasons to play this week to survive the chop.

We need to start well, like every side has to when playing interstate, as if the crowd is in the game early, Freo will get a boost from them.

I believe the night game helps us a lot too, as the weather has no bearing on the outcome, so we will run the game out as good, or even better then Freo.

If it is close at 3/4 time, I will back us every week, and this week is no difference.

Pies by 20.

 

[coldpieswarmbeer]

if presti doesnt play i look forward to brown and pavlich the rematch

remember brown beat him convincigly on debut

 

[TradeDraft]

Freo has been Playing above themselves can they keep it up.

Pies by 22pts

 

[DaVe86]

if presti doesnt play i look forward to brown and pavlich the rematch

remember brown beat him convincigly on debut

Yer that was a cracking effort from young Brown.

However, i think i recall Pav still had around 10 marks and kicked inaccurately.

 

[coldpieswarmbeer]

as i recall pav got most his touches moving into the midfield. no doubt about it, brown beat him that day

 

[robertg22]

Richmond pushed them a couple of weeks ago (for some of the match, lol).
We've gotta be confident going into this one!

 

[handy point]

Again, a great read D86. It's been said before, but this needs to go on the official Pies site.

Pies by 17.

 

[simpin68]

Dave

I look forward to wednesday's as I know your preview is coming out and I really enjoy them, thanks.

Some stats going around this week talk about Fre being the team to use the corrridor the most and pies use the boundary the most. Do you think this will effect game plans?

I think the key to escaping our press is a big kick up the middle to a tall such as Sandy, this could prove our undoing?

 

[doppleganger]

Freo has been Playing above themselves can they keep it up.

Pies by 22pts

Gee, this was the waffle that oppo supporters used when talking about the Pies in recent years.

You cant play above yourself!!

 

[Mickaman]

Awesome stuff Dave. I think Presti was rested for a huge month coming up for him.

Pav
Mooney/Pods/Hawkins
Brown/Fev
Hall

He is going to have his work cut out for him if he is not 100% fit.

 

[Invigoration]

Gee, this was the waffle that oppo supporters used when talking about the Pies in recent years.

You cant play above yourself!!

Yeah because that would just like, define gravity, you know man?

 

[Quicky]

Awesome review DaVe

I think this game really comes down to how each team applies and deals with the defensive pressure of the press; and how clean they each is in their ball use trying to get through the zone.

 

[beerbandit]

good review as always dave..

i think subi will suit us more then ppl think.. a lot of open space means a lot of 1 on 1 contests which id back our players to win 75% of the time.

pies by 35pts

 

[HFF]

The open spaces of Subi won't faze us. We enjoy and play our best footy on the bigger grounds such as the G rather than the small tracks like Etihad.

Also, we have an abundance of players that have an uncanny ability to find space and this is the type of track that our creative types in Didak, Davis, Medhurst, Thomas, Pendlebury, Swan, Cloke etc will flourish in.

I expect a very tough and confronting encounter but I think we have a different energy/resolve about us this year. We should win this by about 30 points.

 

[Frankie23]

Thunderstorms and 16 tommorow, whilst Friday's forcast is solid showers all day and 17.

With that in mind, who will the wet track favour? I see the addition of Ball as huge in a game like this, he should dominate. But do we have enough big bodies in the middle. IMO Caff and OBree have to play now, they provide toughness and a presence.

I think it will favour our style. Wet footy = more turnovers, this is where we thrive. I also see a young Freo team, with less of a physical presence then other teams.

 

[Bloben]

Another great preview Dave.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a comfortable win Friday night.

It is not that I don't believe that Freo are a good team however I am seeing a type of confidence in Collingwood in the last month that reminds me of Geelong. We love to travel plus we will be fired up to play a contender rather than a team we are expected to beat.

 

[THATSGOLD]

Another great preview Dave.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a comfortable win Friday night.

It is not that I don't believe that Freo are a good team however I am seeing a type of confidence in Collingwood in the last month that reminds me of Geelong. We love to travel plus we will be fired up to play a contender rather than a team we are expected to beat.

good review dave.. pav is a massive danger, don't know how to stop sandlilands! pies by 10 points

 

[spartan-magpie]

love your reviews....

pies by 47...

 

[Swooop]

Awesome review daVe.

Can't pick the winner here, it should be such an even contest.

( having said that, I can't pick any of this weeks games with any degree of confidence, well maybe Hawks over richmond that'd be it)

 

[Quicky]

If it rains (like some forecast have suggested) during the match it could really change the complexion of the game. I'd say our extra experience and harder bodies especially in the midfield would become a considerable advantage. The likely hood of O'Bree retaining his spot and Presti coming in would improve too.

 

[chinggis77]

Thunderstorms and 16 tommorow, whilst Friday's forcast is solid showers all day and 17.

With that in mind, who will the wet track favour? I see the addition of Ball as huge in a game like this, he should dominate. But do we have enough big bodies in the middle. IMO Caff and OBree have to play now, they provide toughness and a presence.

I think it will favour our style. Wet footy = more turnovers, this is where we thrive. I also see a young Freo team, with less of a physical presence then other teams.

Palmer, Barlow, Mundy, Haselby et al are all suited to the wet....oh and some guy Sandi doesn't get any smaller on wet days. As wet days inevitably lead to a lot more bounces it plays right into Sandi's hands. Haselby is actually much much better in the wet as it means his one weakness, his speed, is not a factor.

I would think the wet would suit our long and direct style more than Collingwoods. You guys play a much quicker running game which is what has most of us worried on Subiaco. Add a bit of rain - it evens it up.