Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Roby]

When was this Roby?

Mid way through June when you had West Coast 8th in the Power Rankings?

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2015-afl-power-rankings.1091941/page-58#post-39097590

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 11
1 Gold Coast (+1)
2 Hawthorn (-1)
3 Bulldogs (-)
4 Sydney (+1)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Adelaide (+1)
7 Geelong (+1)
8 West Coast (+1)
9 Fremantle (-5)
10 Port Adelaide (-)
11 Brisbane (-)
12 Essendon (-)
13 Kangaroos (-)
14 Carlton (+1)
15 GWS (-1)
16 Collingwood (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 St Kilda (-)


Current Season Forecast(improved formula or more like the old one was errenous)

1 Fremantle 17 5 0 130.6
2 Sydney 16 6 0 129.8
3 Hawthorn 15 7 0 141.1
4 West Coast 15 7 0 133.1
5 Richmond 14 8 0 117.6
6 Bulldogs 14 8 0 114.1
7 Adelaide 14 8 0 112.6
8 Geelong 13 9 0 110.9
9 Port Adelaide 11 11 0 101.1
10 Collingwood 10 12 0 96.1
11 GWS 10 12 0 92.9
12 North Melbourne 9 13 0 88.8
13 Essendon 9 13 0 88.7
14 Gold Coast 8 14 0 88.6
15 Melbourne 6 16 0 76.5
16 St Kilda 6 16 0 76.1
17 Carlton 5 17 0 75.9
18 Brisbane Lions 5 17 0 72.5

F1

Fremantle West Coast 9 points

Sydney Hawthorn 6 points

Richmond Geelong 30 points

Bulldogs Adelaide 15 points

F2

Fremantle Richmond 19 points

Sydney Bulldogs 18 points

F3

West Coast Sydney 5 points

Hawthorn Fremantle 50 points

F4

West Coast Hawthorn 30 points

 

[Illinois Nazi]

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 11
1 Gold Coast (+1)

lol

 

[utility]

I should explain, I went through


I looked at my post from a while back, i plotted all the recent grand finals as vectors flowing from the grand final losers squiggle position to the premiers position. Note these are positions after the grand final, so not a true predictor, even less so for a prelim.
But, do teams make huge sqiggle moves in the last two weeks of a season ?
View attachment 177344
What im saying is a team almost never beats a team to the north east of its position in a grand final.

Theres as many teams in the defensive zone beating those in the attcking zone as vice versa, and plenty of smashings where a team better in both attack and defence beats an inferior team.
Note these are grand finals only, where the mcg is about as neutral as it can get

These are where the vectors come from
View attachment 177349 View attachment 177350

Backs up what I said as the 2009 flag is just about the closest to Hawks of 2008. The other ones close (2001, 2012, 1997) were upsets too.

 

[sonnywalters]

Interestingly today he said in his press conference I've listened to all the permuations and theortical models.



http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2015-09-21/hawks-an-offensive-juggernaut-lyon

And now they want Leuenberger? They have about ten Ruckmen on their list and no key fwds.
There is something nqr with Lyon's brain.

 

[Roby]

And now they want Leuenberger? They have about ten Ruckmen on their list and no key fwds.
There is something nqr with Lyon's brain.

And Pavlich might not even play next year.

 

[Suma Magic]

Kudos to the squiggle. Didn't rate Freo at all for a long time.

 

[sonnywalters]

Will Lyon finally learn that the 2005 'Bloods' game-plan he has been sticking to for 10 years is out dated?

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Viva la squig

 

[Richo83]

I'm not sure it's just game style, they have personnel issues as well. Tabener, Griffin and Pavlich isn't good enough.

 

[Knight Ryders]

Freo have some seriously average footballers in their top 22.

Sent from my SM-T330 using Tapatalk

 

[Richo83]

And kudos to final siren and roby for sticking to their guns and seeing through Fremantle's premiership hopes. Fremantle need to recruit McCarthy.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

All hail the squiggle

 

[Gralin]

All hail the squiggle

Pretty sure your boy Doc is a card carrying Squiggle supporter who went out and made sure it wasn't wrong tonight

 

[Monopoly_Man]

I should never have doubted the squiggle.

 

[coylez]

Squiggle on point again

 

[sonnywalters]

This is the core group of middle-age players who I think can win the flag for the Eagles.

Name - Games, Age

Rosa - 166, 28
Kennedy - 163, 28
Hurn - 175, 28
Wellingham - 137, 27
Masten - 138, 26
Hill - 137, 26
Schofield - 130, 26
Sinclair - 28, 26
NicNat - 129, 25
Shuey - 109, 25
Sheppard - 82, 24

Absolutely cherry ripe.

 

[sonnywalters]

And kudos to final siren and roby for sticking to their guns and seeing through Fremantle's premiership hopes. Fremantle need to recruit McCarthy.

They need to throw everything at McCarthy. Give him 5 years at $800k a year. Do not stuff around or leave it to chance.
When I read they were interested in Leuenberger I thought they must be seriously ******ed. They dont need anymore ruckmen - they need a key fwd desperately.

 

[Roby]

And kudos to final siren and roby for sticking to their guns and seeing through Fremantle's premiership hopes. Fremantle need to recruit McCarthy.

A few points.

Squiggle was the least closest prediction tonight all the models. It had Freo in a grand final not long ago and even winning it.

Tonight was my most profitable day ever.

I was confident in the power rankings that I proclaimed that if Freo won the GF I would stop posting them. Unlike Freo they will be back again next year.

 

[Suma Magic]

They need to throw everything at McCarthy. Give him 5 years at $800k a year. Do not stuff around or leave it to chance.
When I read they were interested in Leuenberger I thought they must be seriously ******ed. They dont need anymore ruckmen - they need a key fwd desperately.

Convincing McCarthy isn't the issue. It's offering a trade that GWS will want to accept.

 

[Roby]

Yeah but how many beans.

4000 today.

Roby, you predicting that Freo won't make it to the grand final makes me surer that Freo will.

Your predictions simply have no credibility whatsoever whereas the squiggle is actually based on logical and substantiated assumptions.

I will continue to make money on Fremantle for the rest of the year while you have to watch the Eagles play in a Grand Final.Good luck.

Since then Fremantle covered the betting line only five times in the last 12 weeks, and only six times in the last 18 weeks.

 

[JaxsonB]

To be fair, I've only been on BF a few weeks and I already know that Spoken is a die hard, head in the sand Freo supporter that couldn't see the negative stats that were painted on the wall.

In any case, as a stats man, a Squiggle man, and a blue-and-gold blood, just did a quick look to see what it would take for West Coast to enter Squiggle favouritism. As far as I can tell, they need a margin of about 5+ goals for Squiggle to move into at least 50/50 territory.

 

[inbetween]

To be fair, I've only been on BF a few weeks and I already know that Spoken is a die hard, head in the sand Freo supporter that couldn't see the negative stats that were painted on the wall.

In any case, as a stats man, a Squiggle man, and a blue-and-gold blood, just did a quick look to see what it would take for West Coast to enter Squiggle favouritism. As far as I can tell, they need a margin of about 5+ goals for Squiggle to move into at least 50/50 territory.

Nah, squiggle already predicts a 27 point victory. So a 5 goal victory will see them roughly positioned where they are now (pending the scoreline doesnt deviate too much from the prediction). Suspect WC needs a 60+ point victory, whilst simultaneously holding NM to 70 points or less.

 

[JaxsonB]

Nah, squiggle already predicts a 27 point victory. So a 5 goal victory will see them roughly positioned where they are now (pending the scoreline doesnt deviate too much from the prediction). Suspect WC needs a 60+ point victory, whilst simultaneously holding NM to 70 points or less.

Gah, Squiggle's so hard to alter and use for the uninitiated. What I did is move West Coast until they were a point behind Hawthorn in the GF tip (which is virtually 50/50 - it's a Hawthorn tip with the minimum of confidence), then recalculated the forecast resulting in a ~5 goal margin. Was I doing it wrong?

Edit: ah, I get it. Hawthorn gets a HGA when using the Squiggle default, but if you use a custom position to try different WC levels leading into it they no longer get that so basically get 12 free points. West Coast need something akin to a 116 - 71 scoreline against North, for a 45 point margin. I'm actually tipping a 7 goal margin, and I was almost spot on with my 60-40 call of Hawthorn-Freo tonight, so here's hoping! Com'on Squiggle, support the new kids!

 

[inbetween]

Gah, Squiggle's so hard to alter and use for the uninitiated. What I did is move West Coast until they were a point behind Hawthorn in the GF tip (which is virtually 50/50 - it's a Hawthorn tip with the minimum of confidence), then recalculated the forecast resulting in a ~5 goal margin. Was I doing it wrong?

Ah a bit like reverse engineering! But no it wouldnt work that way because there are other non-transparent variables and weighted averages that are used. The basic (and transparent) part of the formula would be the following algorithm:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * (TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE) + HOME ADVANTAGE

Which if im not mistaken is effectively what you've used (in interactive graph form!). However these numbers alone dont represent the changes in team offensive and defensive ratings as far as Im aware.

 

[JaxsonB]

I guess it'll become much clearer after tomorrow night, when team positions can't change at all anymore and we're left with the final Squiggle tip of the year.