Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

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Just waiting for the Squiggle.......

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Fully expecting the top 7 from last year to be favoured by squiggle (as in betting for 2017 flag) there really was a credibility gap for the rest of the teams
 
Pessimistic said:
Fully expecting the top 7 from last year to be favoured by squiggle (as in betting for 2017 flag) there really was a credibility gap for the rest of the teams
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The problem the squiggle has is the inability to make any allowance for off season changes.

The Squiggle will start where it finished 2016 and then adjust as results happen. I wouldn't see as a good predictor for the early rounds or the season in advance of games getting under way.
 
Wow this thread got deep - as a student of probability and statistics (of sorts) I feel I should have more to say to this but perhaps another time. In the meantime, if you enjoy having your brain spun around inside your skull, I ask you the following question: why does a coin come up heads about half the time?
 
RW said:
Wow this thread got deep - as a student of probability and statistics (of sorts) I feel I should have more to say to this but perhaps another time. In the meantime, if you enjoy having your brain spun around inside your skull, I ask you the following question: why does a coin come up heads about half the time?
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Velocity of rotation/gravity may be constant (or close enough to it), but the larger drag coefficient of the greater detail on the tails side combined with the greater weight of the heads side means it's more likely to come up tails more than heads.
 
RW said:
Wow this thread got deep - as a student of probability and statistics (of sorts) I feel I should have more to say to this but perhaps another time. In the meantime, if you enjoy having your brain spun around inside your skull, I ask you the following question: why does a coin come up heads about half the time?
Click to expand...
Result has to do with rate of spin / flip of coin and height of coin. If you are consistent with both it is possible to reduce the odds of one or other significantly- knew a girl at school who could reliably flip heads (did 10 in a row predicting that she would do it)
 
Crankyhawk said:
Result has to do with rate of spin / flip of coin and height of coin. If you are consistent with both it is possible to reduce the odds of one or other significantly- knew a girl at school who could reliably flip heads (did 10 in a row predicting that she would do it)
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How many spins?
 
RW said:
Wow this thread got deep - as a student of probability and statistics (of sorts) I feel I should have more to say to this but perhaps another time. In the meantime, if you enjoy having your brain spun around inside your skull, I ask you the following question: why does a coin come up heads about half the time?
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To make up for Tails coming up the other half.

May as well ask why does tails come up half the time. Its the same question. :)
 
Infra Ted said:
What kind of question is that? I'm intrigued now.
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It's a riddle about probability - the coin toss is just one example, it's meant to illustrate that there is a limit to what we can understand about why certain events happen.
 

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RW said:
It's a riddle about probability - the coin toss is just one example, it's meant to illustrate that there is a limit to what we can understand about why certain events happen.
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Why is it a riddle?
 
SJ said:
Why is it a riddle?
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Well, because we don't know for sure what the result of each coin toss will be. It was just meant to be something to ponder, following on from the discussion about uncertainty and luck.
 
RW said:
Well, because we don't know for sure what the result of each coin toss will be. It was just meant to be something to ponder, following on from the discussion about uncertainty and luck.
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No but we assume that the probability of landing on the edge is zero, and that the coin is uniform on both sides. Therefore, ceteris paribus, it should land on each side with the same probability. And since there are two equal sides, that probability is 0.5.
 
Richo83 said:
The world is probabilistic and deterministic, it is also slightly random, and sports have way too many variables to predict with 100% accuracy.



You don't have to believe in multiple universes to believe that the world is infinite in that there are an infinite array of possibilities that can happen at any given time, especially given the infinite array of variables.

You can predict the behavior of very simple things just before they happen with a high degree of probability, but football teams are not very simple things.
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I've seen somewhere the maths done on how many possibilities there are in situations like the choice set for shopping in New York. Early quickly the total number of choice reaches the level of atoms in the galaxy. I've seen this called Hayek's impossibility theorem. You need a computer more complex than the universe to understand the universe. More generally, any complex system is likely impossible to fully understand without a more powerful computer than humans can create. The best you can do is get an incomplete but useful understanding of key aspects.

Thus we have the squiggle.
 
Dr Tigris said:
I've seen somewhere the maths done on how many possibilities there are in situations like the choice set for shopping in New York. Early quickly the total number of choice reaches the level of atoms in the galaxy. I've seen this called Hayek's impossibility theorem. You need a computer more complex than the universe to understand the universe. More generally, any complex system is likely impossible to fully understand without a more powerful computer than humans can create. The best you can do is get an incomplete but useful understanding of key aspects.

Thus we have the squiggle.
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Thus the religious drive to surrender to a higher power aka something more complex than ourselves and our universe, which assumes a full knowledge on our behalf, or man's giving birth to a god that we empower to rule us because we feel we can't rule ourselves, aka Kant's nonage. Begs the question, is the Squiggle for some a god replacement? Or is it just a mischievous set of data, aka the devil? I sympathize.
 
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