Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[The Swans Blog]

The Squiggle has changed its mind. Freo to win the GF.

Well... for a day at least

Sydney 71 - 59 Fremantle

 

[Dangas]

Your team lost to GWS.

Who cares....clearly we don't!

 

[Spoken4]

Well... for a day at least

Sydney 71 - 59 Fremantle

Only need to be the best team on that one day, right? You guys proved that in 2012.

 

[NewMelbournian]

Only need to be the best team on that one day, right? You guys proved that in 2012.

Yes but you also have to be good enough to get to that one day.

 

[samFFC]

Yes but you also have to be good enough to get to that one day.

If freo makes top 2 they would be good enough.

 

[The King!]

Only need to be the best team on that one day, right? You guys proved that in 2012.

that's right, like when you guys won that flag in.... oh yeah that's right

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

that's right, like when you guys won that flag in.... oh yeah that's right

Freo and Swans supporters should get along! #interstate

 

[The King!]

Freo and Swans supporters should get along! #interstate

they are getting as arrogant as the hawks fans, least the hawks are successful

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

North is taking the piss out of this graph.

Literally extracting all of it.

 

[The Speaker]

they are getting as arrogant as the hawks fans, least the hawks are successful

 

[Ischenko]

This thread is the best thing on this website, pls do not derail w/ shitfights thx.

 

[GordonT]

In round 20 it has Freo beating Geelong but on the ladder it gives Freo a loss.
At the end of the year it has Freo in 2nd with 5 losses but with a greater percentage then Syd.

Whats up with that?

 

[samFFC]

In round 20 it has Freo beating Geelong but on the ladder it gives Freo a loss.
At the end of the year it has Freo in 2nd with 5 losses but with a greater percentage then Syd.

Whats up with that?

Basically the ladder works on a probability basis. Freo is a 0.56 (56%) chance to win that match. So they get the win on the tipping.

But the ladder is worked out on a probability basis, so that win leaves them with less than .5 wins for that round, so it rounds down to the lower win total.

 

[james brayshaw]

can i ask why 85 is the number used? sorry if its already been answered

 

[samFFC]

can i ask why 85 is the number used? sorry if its already been answered

The Model
In the beginning, each team is assigned an arbitrary starting value of 50 OFFENCE and 50 DEFENCE.

Scores are predicted for a match:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * (TEAM OFFENCE ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE) + HOME ADVANTAGE

For example, in a match at a neutral venue between a team with OFFENCE 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * (56 ÷ 50) + 0 = 95 points.

HOME ADVANTAGE is 6 when a team plays an interstate side at home, -6 when it plays an interstate side away, otherwise 0.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and OFFENCE and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its OFFENCE score needs to be increased, since the Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results for the year, in which the most recent round comprises 9% of the final value.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to OFFENCE and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The constants in this model (weighting the most recent round at 9%, considering 85 points a "typical" score, awarding a 12-point relative advantage to home sides playing interstate sides, and using exactly one previous season's results as a starting point each year) were chosen simply by simulating all possible values and seeing which produced the most accurate predictions over the course of the last 20 seasons.

The axis units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's OFFENCE and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

The predictive model is solid but unspectacular, being about as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat.) In line betting, Squiggle predictions beat the line 50-55% of the time, which is good but not good enough to reliably overcome the bookies' take. Squiggles aren't designed to tip upsets but rather to visualize where teams sit, along with how they change over the season.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2014.html#help

 

[Final Siren]

Yeah I did notice that. A fairly wild swing in Freos direction.

There is a bug in the istate-91:12 algorithm causing this, sorry! When a match is played between two teams at a venue that is in neither side's home state, it assigns home advantage to the nominal "home" team.

This hasn't really mattered before, but since we're now predicting Grand Finals between two non-Vic sides, I will get it straightened out.

Right now it is tipping Sydney 71 - 59 Fremantle as if the GF will be played in Sydney.

 

[clogged]

they are getting as arrogant as the hawks fans

Take a look in the mirror. At least what Fremantle do isn't AFL assisted.

 

[DardySingh360]

There is a bug in the istate-91:12 algorithm causing this, sorry! When a match is played between two teams at a venue that is in neither side's home state, it assigns home advantage to the nominal "home" team.

This hasn't really mattered before, but since we're now predicting Grand Finals between two non-Vic sides, I will get it straightened out.

Right now it is tipping Sydney 71 - 59 Fremantle as if the GF will be played in Sydney.

So it's predicting a draw right? 65 apiece, neck and neck folks!

 

[tazaa]

So it's predicting a draw right? 65 apiece, neck and neck folks!

haha thats awesome!

 

[samFFC]

haha thats awesome!

So it's predicting a draw right? 65 apiece, neck and neck folks!

First thing to do when getting to Melbourne for GF day is to put $50 on the draw. Wouldn't be excited to go back and forth to Perth for a replay...

 

[DardySingh360]

First thing to do when getting to Melbourne for GF day is to put $50 on the draw. Wouldn't be excited to go back and forth to Perth for a replay...

I'd worry about making the top 4 and top 2 before worrying about the potential for a replay mate

 

[tazaa]

First thing to do when getting to Melbourne for GF day is to put $50 on the draw. Wouldn't be excited to go back and forth to Perth for a replay...

Yep. Smarter would be to invest that 50 into Freo points scored (60-75) into Sydney points scored (60-75)

 

[samFFC]

Yep. Smarter would be to invest that 50 into Freo points scored (60-75) into Sydney points scored (60-75)

More likely to win, but much worse than the $31 or $51 you can get for the draw. My idea is based more on need for $$ when in Melbourne for GF week, rather than actually picking a probable result!

 

[samFFC]

I'd worry about making the top 4 and top 2 before worrying about the potential for a replay mate

Haven't you seen the squiggle? In squiggle we trust!

 

[se17enteen]

they are getting as arrogant as the hawks fans, least the hawks are successful

Swans supporter bragging about being successful is like someone that's on Centrelink bragging about how much money they've got.