Wish this was a new thread for this season.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
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- Aug 20, 2014
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I'm not totally clear on the squiggle ladder. Is the squiggle telling you loses for Freo to:
Adelaide in Adelaide
Hawthorn at Aurora
Richmond at the MCG
Nth Melb at Etihad
Port in Adelaide
Or is it scratching one of them and suggesting a loss to Sydney this Weekend.
Adelaide in Adelaide
Hawthorn at Aurora
Richmond at the MCG
Nth Melb at Etihad
Port in Adelaide
Or is it scratching one of them and suggesting a loss to Sydney this Weekend.
- May 8, 2006
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Why? Then people who are new to the squiggle can't go back and see how it all works and how it started
Just ****ing put a link at the front of the new thread. It ain't brain science.
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No, it's an aggregate of %likelihood of winning each game. It's explained somewhere, probably on page 1 of thread.
- May 8, 2006
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Nah..whats wrong with one mega thread anyway?
A second one benefits who exactly?
Me and the millions that follow this epic thread. One for each year. Simple.
Dylan8
Bar Up
Seems fine in one thread to me, never been any problems for anyone involved.
- Jun 19, 2006
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Love it! The squiggle's team review would be awesomely unemotional. So you're playing without 2 of your best players and lose 3 more during the game finishing in a back against the walls win. Squiggle response: "Attack was poor and defence was shithouse. Not good enough."
- Sep 4, 2013
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It helped having the explanation on the first page of this thread.
- Aug 18, 2009
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In terms of straight tips, the squiggle today tips Fremantle only to lose to Adelaide (SA), Hawthorn (Tas), Richmond (VIC) (by 1 pt!), and Port (SA).
That would be four losses for the year. But the ladder predictor doesn't use straight tips, since it knows that even the best teams, favourites in every game, still lose occasionally.
So what it does is estimate the odds that some tips will be wrong. For example, although the Dockers are tipped to beat Sydney this weekend, the predicted margin is only 5 points. Similarly, they're tipped to beat the Roos in Melbourne in Round 21 by only 3 points. The squiggle thinks Fremantle are likely to win each game, but it also thinks it could easily be wrong.
The maths works like this. In those games, Freo have a ~55% chance of winning. That means you should tip them each time. But when you look at the two games as a package, the likelihood of each outcome is:
- Freo win both: (0.55 x 0.55) = 30.25%
- Freo win the first, lose the second: (0.55 x 0.45) = 24.75%
- Freo lose the first, win the second: (0.45 x 0.55) = 24.75%
- Freo lose both: (0.45 x 0.45) = 20.25%
To reflect this, the ladder predictor will award Fremantle a total of (0.55 + 0.55) = 1.1 wins for those two games. And it will give them some fraction of a game for matches it thinks they'll lose, too. Their final predicted tally of 17.06 wins is the sum total of their chances of winning each game.
You probably do something similar yourself when you use the AFL Ladder Predictor: you deliberately tip some upsets, because you know there will inevitably be some. But picking upsets is hard (which is why they're upsets!); it's a lot easier to account for the probability that some tips, somewhere, will be wrong, without having to say exactly which ones.
Some more info here.
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- Aug 20, 2014
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That really is awesome. Love this sort of stuff.
SJ
Premium Platinum
Would this be Geelong's lowest position since perhaps Round 2 2004, or 2003?
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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Saturday night could be very exciting viewing if it's as close as it expects...
Port Adelaide 92 - 93 Hawthorn
Fremantle 77 - 72 Sydney
- Aug 18, 2009
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I think what is most interesting this week are the 3 games where HGA is of most impact.
Roos vs Geelong
Hawks vs Port
and Sydney vs Freo
In each of these the 12pt HGA is either deciding the game, or making it very close (Port)
Roos vs Geelong
Hawks vs Port
and Sydney vs Freo
In each of these the 12pt HGA is either deciding the game, or making it very close (Port)
Put it this way, if Port don't get the win against Hawthorn, they aren't finishing top 4. They'll be 1-3 and 2 games behind Hawthorn and one of Sydney & Fremantle, and 3 behind Fremantle. 6 losses will get you 4th so they're on thin ice for the rest of the season considering they Adelaide the following week. A loss there will put them 1-4 and pretty much out of top-4 contention, unless they go on a 15 game winning streak.
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St Kilda won the 1997 minor premiership after starting the year with LLWLL
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- Oct 3, 2008
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Disagree... Sure it will make it hard if they lose on Sat but after the showdown their draw opens right up
- Jun 30, 2011
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Given that their record that year would have been good for 5th last year you may be proving their point there..
It's a lot of conjecture, but this match against Hawthorn is already a must-win match. Should they lose it, the Adelaide match turns into season defining. Lose it and they won't make the top 4 because:
- Away game against the Swans they'll lose
- Derby against the Crows (50/50)
- Away game against Essendon (60/40)
- Away game against Hawks (30/70) @ Etihad - what the f?
- Home game against Freo (70/30)
Put it this way, lose against the Hawks and they'll finish on 7 losses for the season, minimum. Win and it'll be 5, assuming they go 1:1 in their derbys, which should be good enough for 3rd.
- Oct 3, 2008
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yeah ur right will be touch and go...they beat Hawks they are top 4..they lose to hawks ur right they have to beat adelaide or they are almost toast..they got to win one of them min.
Seriously - you've only got to look at you're own club last year. LLWL then facing Fremantle. Where did Sydney finish again? Maybe a little less on the hyperbole and little more on the substance.
Port Adelaide would have to go on a monster win streak like we did last season.
Not sure where this is coming from, go peruse their fixture on the AFL site and see if your predictions come up with 16 or better wins.
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