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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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Regression? I don't know, I scraped through econometrics with barely a pass.
- Jun 13, 2007
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28 C and sunny.
Surely we can overlay the bom weather temperatures of games this year to see that the eagles on average have played better in the heat?
Surely we can overlay the bom weather temperatures of games this year to see that the eagles on average have played better in the heat?
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- Jun 13, 2007
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Here are the Rain / Min / Max temp for each of the Hawks and WC games for the year
Games > 20 C max hawks are 1 - 2
games above 20C max, wc are 8 - 2 - 1
What does this mean in terms of the grand final? it means Perth is hotter than Melbourne / Launceston.
Games > 20 C max hawks are 1 - 2
games above 20C max, wc are 8 - 2 - 1
What does this mean in terms of the grand final? it means Perth is hotter than Melbourne / Launceston.
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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Yep, I'd only be drawing the conclusion that Perth and Queensland are warmer than Melbourne.
- Aug 18, 2009
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We need temps/precip at the time of the match!
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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After closer inspection neither team played any matches on a day >20 at any start time earlier than the 4:35pm twilight time slot. The one exception being the 1:10pm Sunday game West Coast played against Brisbane back in round 4 in Brisbane and even then it was only 23 degrees.
This will be the hottest game both teams will have played in all year by far and neither will be "used to it" under actual match conditions.
- Jun 13, 2007
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- Jun 13, 2007
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well the theory is that WA / northern teams are used to the more extreme heat than victorian teams.
you wonder what effect playing twice in perth in the last 2/3 games will have in the hawk in the last on a very hot day for footy.
- Aug 18, 2009
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We've been spoiled for good finals teams this year. And we've been spoiled for a while! The last five years have all been better than the previous thirteen.
The worst year is 2003, when Collingwood made the Grand Final with this team. (That thread is what made me curious about the stats). At the end of the home & away season, Brisbane, the best-placed team and eventual premier, was about equivalent to Adelaide this year.
The best year, which only just beats this year, is 2011 -- mostly because of Geelong and Collingwood, but with strong support. Only Essendon of the top 8 weren't much chop.
In 2007, Geelong were great but everyone else really, really sucked. A year later, the Cats were still great, and only Hawthorn and St Kilda were any good.
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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Sam Mitchell said in an interview earlier in the week (re: how the hot weather will affect the Hawks) that Andrew Russell, the Hawks fitness guru, for the past 4 years from round 18 onwards has had all the players do stuff in a heat room they have at the club to best prepare them for a possible day like this.
I don't know if it will work but I'm prepared to put my faith in the guy that has ensured we've had close to - if not our best 22 available for the last 3 GF days.
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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Interesting that 2008 is so low. Could this indicate that the dominant Geelong side of 2008 wasn't actually "all that" and was merely a big fish (shark if you will) in a small tank? Does doing this same thing with just the grand finalists show anything of interest?
We've been spoiled for good finals teams this year. And we've been spoiled for a while! The last five years have all been better than the previous thirteen.
The worst year is 2003, when Collingwood made the Grand Final with this team. (That thread is what made me curious about the stats). At the end of the home & away season, Brisbane, the best-placed team and eventual premier, was about equivalent to Adelaide this year.
The best year, which only just beats this year, is 2011 -- mostly because of Geelong and Collingwood, but with strong support. Only Essendon of the top 8 weren't much chop.
In 2007, Geelong were great but everyone else really, really sucked. A year later, the Cats were still great, and only Hawthorn and St Kilda were any good.
- Aug 29, 2006
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We've been spoiled for good finals teams this year. And we've been spoiled for a while! The last five years have all been better than the previous thirteen.
The worst year is 2003, when Collingwood made the Grand Final with this team. (That thread is what made me curious about the stats). At the end of the home & away season, Brisbane, the best-placed team and eventual premier, was about equivalent to Adelaide this year.
The best year, which only just beats this year, is 2011 -- mostly because of Geelong and Collingwood, but with strong support. Only Essendon of the top 8 weren't much chop.
In 2007, Geelong were great but everyone else really, really sucked. A year later, the Cats were still great, and only Hawthorn and St Kilda were any good.
So this notion that Hawthorn has been strong against ordinary team is not correct at all then.
Teen Wolf
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We've been spoiled for good finals teams this year. And we've been spoiled for a while! The last five years have all been better than the previous thirteen.
The worst year is 2003, when Collingwood made the Grand Final with this team. (That thread is what made me curious about the stats). At the end of the home & away season, Brisbane, the best-placed team and eventual premier, was about equivalent to Adelaide this year.
The best year, which only just beats this year, is 2011 -- mostly because of Geelong and Collingwood, but with strong support. Only Essendon of the top 8 weren't much chop.
In 2007, Geelong were great but everyone else really, really sucked. A year later, the Cats were still great, and only Hawthorn and St Kilda were any good.
Interesting, but the peaks surely don't just freakishly coincide with the presence of new/weak teams in the competition.
Somebody might look at that chart and think "oh 2003, bad finals teams", but isn't it merely suggesting the league was overall more balanced? Likewise, I don't necessarily buy that we've been spoiled since 2011. If all 18 teams were more evenly matched, the squiggle ratings wouldn't be as high across the board, but it doesn't mean the quality of football is lower (nor higher).
Is it fair to say the term squiggle "strength" is slightly misleading?
2002 and 2003 Pies made grand finals and everyone talked up how Malthouse had done a great job to get an average them there.
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Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
We've been spoiled for good finals teams this year. And we've been spoiled for a while! The last five years have all been better than the previous thirteen.
The worst year is 2003, when Collingwood made the Grand Final with this team. (That thread is what made me curious about the stats). At the end of the home & away season, Brisbane, the best-placed team and eventual premier, was about equivalent to Adelaide this year.
The best year, which only just beats this year, is 2011 -- mostly because of Geelong and Collingwood, but with strong support. Only Essendon of the top 8 weren't much chop.
In 2007, Geelong were great but everyone else really, really sucked. A year later, the Cats were still great, and only Hawthorn and St Kilda were any good.
I can't help but see an expansion phase of Port (tucking away players), Freo and the demise of Fitzroy creating an imbalance in 96 and 97; and
the expansion clubs of GWS and GC
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
Awesome
Do you temperatures at time of the match otherwise this list is completely irrelevant
If West Coast win on Saturday it wont be because of the weather and if they are relying on the weather to win they are cooked already
I do know that the max temperature at last years GF was 23.6 degrees and Hawthorn won the game by 10 goals
Sat Sept 29, 2014 Min 8.8 Max 23.4
The Hawks also are the best 4th quarter team in the competition which isnt bad for such an old squad
Make of that what you will
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- Jun 13, 2007
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I complete agree they are complete irrelevant
FootyMaths
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For what it is worth:
Squiggle: Hawks by 15
ASAP Index: Hawks by 11
MatterOfStats: Hawks by 9.5 (using all-predictor average)
FootyForecaster: Hawks by 8
FootyMaths: Hawks by 7
Massey: Hawks by 2
(Hope I have read those data right)
Squiggle: Hawks by 15
ASAP Index: Hawks by 11
MatterOfStats: Hawks by 9.5 (using all-predictor average)
FootyForecaster: Hawks by 8
FootyMaths: Hawks by 7
Massey: Hawks by 2
(Hope I have read those data right)
It's far better being the underdog than the raging favourite
- May 4, 2013
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Are we "raging" though? All those predictions are so close
Interesting that Footy Forecaster has framed fair odds at 1.76 to 2.31 (without contribution) with an 8 point head start when the TOT (appears to be) 1.60 to 2.40 with a 9.5 start
If it stays the way it is there have only been 3 heavier favourites going into the GF in 10 years (Collingwood 2010, Geelong 2008 and Geelong 2007)
...of those the result has been 1-1-1
Around 1.70 to 2.20, the Hawks and Swans both lost GF's against each other as well as the 2009 epic
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