Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[utility]

Don't be too smug. There appears to be a similar curse on teams that beat the Tigers in an EF, judging by the fate of Carlton and Port since they did.

Who's being smug? Just pointing out a weird series of results.

Hardly comparable to Tigers in last three years as you're talking about teams outside the top four (who very rarely make grand finals, in other words, just making up the numbers).

 

[sproketman]

One thing I thought was interesting was that, given the talk of attacking Hawthorn and West Coast football, whoever wins out of these two will be either the 3rd (if West Coast; behind Syd 05, Syd 12) or 4th (if Hawthorn; behind Syd 05, Syd 12, Col 10) most defensively dominant premiership in the 20 years between 95-15.

6th most attacking (if Hawthorn; behind Cats 11, Ess 00, NM 96, Haw 14, Cats 07, Bris 02, basically level pegging with Roos 99, Haw 13, Bris 01) or 14th most attacking (if West Coast; behind all the above plus, Blues 95, Coll 10, Crows 98, Bris 03, Haw 08, pretty close to level with Eagles 06 (though a lot more defensively strong)).

I would note that a huge chunk of this comes from Hawthorn's round 16 and 17 displays against Sydney and Carlton, and Eagles Rnd 23 and QF performances against St Kilda and Hawthorn.

Edit: Both teams are well inside the triangle all premierships sides are in, with the Eagles entering around Rnd 14/15.

Edit 2: The really bloody annoying thing is that all the predictors are saying 1.60 is bad value for Hawks. I want to put an insurance bet on Hawks so I can pay for the necessary bar tab if this goes pear shaped

Hard to really say that they are that defensive though. This was the lowest scoring season in terms of points per game since 1968. Relative to the remainder of the comp, West Coast and especially Hawthorn are scoring machines.

 

[The Passenger]

Since I've been knowledgeably following football (20 years) I can't remember a better team at cutting up an opposition when they are on top as Hawthorn are. They are the kings of scoreboard pressure IMO and it's so important, particularly in big games, to put points on the scoreboard when you have momentum. Hawks do it better than anyone I can remember.

Bam.... So far that is the biggest difference in this game. They got on top and slaughtered us when they had the momentum. Nine unanswered goals in about 25 minutes of playing time is devastating.

 

[Royce Hafey]

Who's being smug? Just pointing out a weird series of results.

Hardly comparable to Tigers in last three years as you're talking about teams outside the top four (who very rarely make grand finals, in other words, just making up the numbers).

Methinks this one thinks his "curse" is for real, that's the only way to explain being offended by such a light-hearted post.

 

[utility]

Methinks this one thinks his "curse" is for real, that's the only way to explain being offended by such a light-hearted post.

Beat North in a Prelim... that's a paddlin'.

Question the curse... that's a paddlin'.

 

[Roby]

Beat North in a Prelim... that's a paddlin'.

Question the curse... that's a paddlin'.

I can't believe that someone has quoted that. That's a paddling.


The AFL power rankings were the closet model in the predicted margin yet again. That's a paddling.

 

[cryptor]

...So the game could effectively be over at quarter time depending on which team bursts out of the gate and converts their opportunities. Bit like last years GF in a way.

Glad it was the Hawks who were accurate. Bad luck Eagles, you won't miss them next time!

 

[sonnywalters]

All hail the squiggle.

 

[Hawkk]

Where does the 2015 Hawthorn squiggle rank in all time squiggles?

From what I can see its the strongest of the 2008, 2013, 2014 and 2015 squiggles

 

[believe_it]

Trust in the Squiggle with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding.
In all your ways acknowledge him, and he will make your paths straight.

 

[cryptor]

Where does the 2015 Hawthorn squiggle rank in all time squiggles?

From what I can see its the strongest of the 2008, 2013, 2014 and 2015 squiggles

No where near 1988.

Though I would be interested to see where we might've ended up had we taken the last quarter more seriously in front of goal (eg. Puopolo passing off a shot 40m dead in front to Stratton on an angle) and not let West Coast have those last few junktime goals.

 

[Roby]

For what it is worth:
Squiggle: Hawks by 15
ASAP Index: Hawks by 11
MatterOfStats: Hawks by 9.5 (using all-predictor average)
FootyForecaster: Hawks by 8
FootyMaths: Hawks by 7
Massey: Hawks by 2

(Hope I have read those data right)

And you forgot one..

AFL Power Rankings: 17 points. Not a hole in one, but certainly closest to it.

 

[Hawkk]

And you forgot one..

AFL Power Rankings: 17 points. Not a hole in one, but certainly closest to it.

Will the Hawks start #1 on the Power Rankings next year?

 

[Richo83]

Will the Hawks start #1 on the Power Rankings next year?

Nah, the suns will. But again, kudos to roby and final siren for supporting the hawks all the way through. Attack won out yet again.

 

[Roby]

Will the Hawks start #1 on the Power Rankings next year?

They should, currently $4 favs for 2016 as they have been for most of 2015. Essendon probably will. but will see how much of an impact their retirees and delistings will have. The injury weighting needs tinkering but the Dons performed very in their two games against the premiers (showing they can match it with the best).

Performed well against Richmond (twice), Fremantle, North (twice), Sydney, Collingwood (twice), and was never beaten by more than five goals by any of those teams even though they were the second most injured side.

They had the second best result in Perth against the Eagles for an interstate side.

They had a really few bad games but their season was shot by the half way mark with all that was going. They performed really bad in some games but they showed signs they have a high ceiling.

 

[FootyMaths]

And you forgot one..

AFL Power Rankings: 17 points. Not a hole in one, but certainly closest to it.

You need to update your signature link, as that where I started looking. I see the link you placed leads to a different location.

And we were all correct on the tip, and all well under the margin too

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The flagpole told a pretty strong story in hindsight.

 

[mightyhawks23]

We gotta wait 6 months for more squiggle action??

 

[cryptor]

The flagpole told a pretty strong story in hindsight.

View attachment 180706

Unless those horizontal line segments are just relative to the highest flag pole in a given year West Coast are pretty unlucky to have been contesting a Grand Final in a year where a side got as high on the flag pole as Hawthorn did. That height would have been more than enough in previous years I bet.

 

[Unique Name]

Thanks for all your efforts this year Final Siren

Have enjoyed checking this thread and your analysis every week.



Bring on 2016

 

[Yuley95]

Thanks for all your efforts this year Final Siren

Have enjoyed checking this thread and your analysis every week.



Bring on 2016

Ditto. Love your work. Thanks

 

[Roby]

You need to update your signature link, as that where I started looking. I see the link you placed leads to a different location.

And we were all correct on the tip, and all well under the margin too

Do you think it's an issue that can be rectified to get well under the margin again in second consecutive grand final?

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

so how does the squiggle start off the year? is it based off of Rd.1 behaviour? or does it use last years end data as a start point?

 

[Millky95]

Final Siren

Would it be possible to do a start of year to end of year straight line now the season has finished?

 

[Hawkk]

The flagpole told a pretty strong story in hindsight.

View attachment 180706

Would be great to plot all 13 Hawthorn squiggles to illustrate how the gane has changed through the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s and 10s