Play Nice Random Chat Thread: Episode III

[Del191229]

I reckon it's a nice time to get in to a consumer essential low item cost business.

When the market fell the this week, one of the only things that rose noticeably was a company that provides those pre-paid low cost funerals.

Ageing population = lots of funerals.

More and more people entering retirement without massive super and still with mortgages etc = rise in low-cost pre-paid funerals.

Once the crash wipes out the super and savings of the Franking Credits types = even more people needing low-cost pre-paid funerals.

 

[Del191229]

I have to logically assume that Morrison WILL bring in a significant rise in Newstart payments AFTER he tweeks the knobs and gains control over cash flow.

I expect they will wind down the $10,000 cap relatively quickly. Cash could be gone in 5-10 years.

Yeah, already is in some of the more "advanced" places. Denmark say. Also China hates cash.

 

[ferball]

..........and THIS runs contra to their economic stimulus philosophies!!!!!!!

RBA boss says raising Newstart more effective than tax cuts for the wealthy

RBA Governor Philip Lowe supports an increase in Newstart to boost the economy. Source: AAP

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe says despite growth being revised down for 2019, there are signs the economy has reached a "turning point".

Labor MP Alicia Payne questioned whether tax cuts for the wealthy or raising unemployment benefits would have a bigger economic benefit. "In the short run I think you get more stimulus from giving money to people who have a high propensity to spend that money so that's obviously lower income people, so in the short run I think the answer to that is pretty clear," Dr Lowe told the committee.

Looking at the longer term was more complicated, he said.

"We've got to think about the incentives for work and innovation and reward. It may be in the longer run having low tax rate on people who earn higher income either through entrepreneurship or other reasons actually stimulates more growth in the economy so everyone can be better off."

It's not the first time Dr Lowe has publicly backed an increase to the $277-a-week Newstart payment, but he stopped short of calling on the government to raise the amount by $75 as welfare groups are demanding. "Increased spending there would see greater spending in the economy, but it's a balance. The government has to decide where best to spend its scarce resources."

Dr Lowe used the hearing to outline an optimistic view of Australia's economy declaring the nation may have reached a "gentle turning point", paving the way for growth to pick up again next year. But Dr Lowe again reminded governments there is more they could do to get the economy moving, as uncertainty borne of global trade tensions continues to swirl. The central bank this week revised down its growth forecast for 2019, from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

RBA boss says raising Newstart more effective than tax cuts for the wealthy

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe says despite growth being revised down for 2019, there are signs the economy has reached a "turning point".

www.sbs.com.au

This is also why all that pink batts, school halls stuff during the GFC helped our economy so much. It all went back into local economies as people spent money they wouldn't have otherwise had. Especially in rural areas. It kept some people's businesses alive.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Go bush. Farm food and (legal) herbs. Well weed would be a good medicine too but it'll lose its value pretty quickly when the economy tanks. And it will tank. This has been coming for decades.

Also find a community where you can trust the people and live there.

Have any of you ever seen this:


13 kilometres north east of Palmerston North, Ashhurst has a population of almost three thousand. It also has its very own currency
"You can spend them at a lot of the market stalls here today. And a lot of people around town will take them for goods and services in general," says Phil Stevens, one of the people behind the project. The currency, called 'the loaves', comes in a one, five, ten, or 20 dollar note, each with designs significant to the town. It is run by a group calling itself the LEAP Society - short for Local Economy of Ashhurst and Pohangina.

There are a few paces in NZ that have done this over the last 20 years. I was looking for a different one.

Of course.

A prime example were German immigrants living on farms in the Barrossa, who were barely affected during the 1930's depression.

Government is designed to keep us locked in to the contemporary consumer Ponzi scheme, and to keep it humming along, and don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with a little consumerism, but make sure you are as independent as possible when it comes to the essentials of life (shelter, food, water, power)

 

[Themanbun]

When the market fell the this week, one of the only things that rose noticeably was a company that provides those pre-paid low cost funerals.

Ageing population = lots of funerals.

More and more people entering retirement without massive super and still with mortgages etc = rise in low-cost pre-paid funerals.

Once the crash wipes out the super and savings of the Franking Credits types = even more people needing low-cost pre-paid funerals.

Which company was that?

For scientific purposes, of course.

 

[ferball]

And let's not forget by their own economic philosophy, it MANDATES a 5 per cent unemployment rate as 'full employment'. 5 per cent unemployment of a 16 million strong labour force is automatically 800k people who are out of work by necessity in order to keep the economy functioning.

How this 'dole bludger' rhetoric came about and actually found influence when we ditched actual notions of full employment way back in the 1970s is beyond me.

Because if you keep that 5% scapegoated it provides an easier method of driving down wages.

 

[Snake_Baker]

More and more people entering retirement without massive super and still with mortgages etc = rise in low-cost pre-paid funerals.

The notion of organizing retirement to maintain a fragile consumer existence is the height of gullibility.

Folks retiring in late 2008 found out the hard way. They trusted the bastards and they paid.

Don't invest in consumerism folks, invest in your personal independence.

 

[ferball]

Of course.

A prime example were German immigrants living on farms in the Barrossa, who were barely affected during the 1930's depression.

Government is designed to keep us locked in to the contemporary consumer Ponzi scheme, and to keep it humming along, and don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with a little consumerism, but make sure you are as independent as possible when it comes to the essentials of life (shelter, food, water, power)

That's why i went bush decades ago.

But people are less prepared for that sort of thing now than they were then.

 

[Del191229]

There's also the issue of how LEGAL immigration that was ramped up by Howard has been used to drive down wages.

Whole industries have become based on wage theft.

Back in YE OLDE TIMES when I was a young bloke and worked in hospitality here you got penalty rates for working Sundays etc, it was just how it was.

Now most places won't pay that and their business model demands it.

 

[Del191229]

The notion of organizing retirement to maintain a fragile consumer existence is the height of gullibility.

Folks retiring in late 2008 found out the hard way. They trusted the bastards and they paid..

Have you see the movie I, Daniel Blake? Predicated on that notion of a good honest working class bloke who trusted the system and when he falls on hard times it completely ****s him over.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Have you see the movie I, Daniel Blake? Predicated on that notion of a good honest working class bloke who trusted the system and when he falls on hard times it completely fu**s him over.

Yes, I have seen it. Very nice, very gullible people get ****ed over all the time, it's the way of the world. I don't want to steer this discussion towards social justice warrior territory. I want to stay focused on the big picture economics of what is actually in the works right now.

 

[ferball]

This article came out last year:

We're turning from cash, but demand for notes has never been higher

Australians are turning away from cash payments but there are more notes out there than ever before - and criminals love it.

www.smh.com.au

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the proportion of cash payments made by Australian consumers dropped from 70 per cent in 2007 to 37 per cent in 2016. Over the same period, the value of the payments dropped $56 billion, down to $162 billion.

Cash’s popularity has declined "faster than any of us anticipated", says Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer, who predicted 95 per cent of payments would be electronic within a decade.
...
And yet more cash flows through the Australian economy than ever before: about $74 billion in 1.5 billion notes.

The ratio of physical currency to GDP has risen to a 50-year high as the commercial banks have demanded larger stocks of every note for a decade.

As for the rarely-seen green $100, there are now 14 for every Australian.

Its interesting that there is more cash than there used to be.

Also according to a UN report in 2014 Australians use more drugs than anyone else on earth. Those people need cash to engage in that market.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Also according to a UN report in 2014 Australians use more drugs than anyone else on earth. Those people need cash to engage in that market.

People won't stop using drugs, in fact, I expect black market prices to drop as the cash pool shrinks, causing things like drugs to have greater widespread availability.

Recreational drugs are not expensive items to manufacture/grow.

 

[ferball]

Furthermore according to the former UN heavyweight Antonio Maria Costa drug money saved the rest of the world during the GFC.

Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.This will raise questions about crime's influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations. Speaking from his office in Vienna, Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago. "In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system's main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor," he said.

 

[Del191229]

Yes, I have seen it. Very nice, very gullible people get f’ed over all the time, it's the way of the world. I don't want to steer this discussion towards social justice warrior territory. I want to stay focused on the big picture economics of what is actually in the works right now.

Fair enough.

My own view is that we are ONE major event away from a collapse of the current souffle of debt-based economies.

I reckon no-deal Brexit will be it, but the Hong Kong protests could provide it as well, as could proper shooting starting in the Gulf.

Also, the Chinese now have Trump over a barrel - they can create a recession that kills him and then so a deal with the Democrat that comes in.

They've probably already pulled the level on that with the currency devaluation.

 

[Themanbun]

The notion of organizing retirement to maintain a fragile consumer existence is the height of gullibility.

Folks retiring in late 2008 found out the hard way. They trusted the bastards and they paid.

Don't invest in consumerism folks, invest in your personal independence.

An important thing to consider is paying off your debt if it's tied to an important asset (e.g. house).

It's something that often gets missed in standard of living studies. Whenever I have friends or family here question the living standards in Eastern Europe, I always pose the question: "what could you afford to buy and how would your living standards be if all of your debts were called in tomorrow?"

My EE family, on a humble single salary, own a humble house outright and their car outright. That's about it, and they hardly live the life of consumerism that we have here. On the surface our living standards are better here (after all, we have a bigger tv and uber eats). But if their debts were called in tomorrow, they'd survive. We wouldn't.

 

[Del191229]

This article came out last year:

We're turning from cash, but demand for notes has never been higher

Australians are turning away from cash payments but there are more notes out there than ever before - and criminals love it.

www.smh.com.au

Its interesting that there is more cash than there used to be.

Also according to a UN report in 2014 Australians use more drugs than anyone else on earth. Those people need cash to engage in that market.

I fully ex[ect that post crash weed will be legalised and taxed, probably MDMA too.

 

[Del191229]

Furthermore according to the former UN heavyweight Antonio Maria Costa drug money saved the rest of the world during the GFC.

Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.This will raise questions about crime's influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations. Speaking from his office in Vienna, Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago. "In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system's main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor," he said.

London financial system is geared to drug money laundering as basic business.

 

[Snake_Baker]

An important thing to consider is paying off your debt if it's tied to an important asset (e.g. house).

It's good from an independence aspect, but I expect housing interest rates to plummet also as interest rates go in to negative. We could end up with a housing loan market that is solely based upon service fees.

Fair enough.

My own view is that we are ONE major event away from a collapse of the current souffle of debt-based economies.

I reckon no-deal Brexit will be it, but the Hong Kong protests could provide it as well, as could proper shooting starting in the Gulf.

Also, the Chinese now have Trump over a barrel - they can create a recession that kills him and then so a deal with the Democrat that comes in.

They've probably already pulled the level on that with the currency devaluation.

At the end of the day that political machinery will be tasked with navigating out of the hole, so whilst there might be great initial pain, I think this economic model will still become the future way of the world.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Furthermore according to the former UN heavyweight Antonio Maria Costa drug money saved the rest of the world during the GFC.

Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.This will raise questions about crime's influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations. Speaking from his office in Vienna, Costa said evidence that illegal money was being absorbed into the financial system was first drawn to his attention by intelligence agencies and prosecutors around 18 months ago. "In many instances, the money from drugs was the only liquid investment capital. In the second half of 2008, liquidity was the banking system's main problem and hence liquid capital became an important factor," he said.

I wouldn't take too much notice of that.

The economics of the drug market are also a causative factor in the current economic problem.

 

[Themanbun]

It's good from an independence aspect, but I expect interest rates to plummet also as interest rates go in to negative. We could end up with a housing loan market that is solely based upon service fees.

Agreed. But, if you lose your job, that brings a whole raft of issues with it in being able to service that loan. I doubt the banks will allow you (well, us) to maintain the mortgage if you can't even make principal payments (even if interest rates are lowering that payment).

 

[Snake_Baker]

Agreed. But, if you lose your job, that brings a whole raft of issues with it in being able to service that loan. I doubt the banks will allow you (well, us) to maintain the mortgage if you can't even make principal payments (even if interest rates are lowering that payment).

The whole idea of these radical economic overhauls is to keep the current sham humming along.

If they can't do it, then the basic outcome is that there's too many "unproductive" people on the planet, and I hate to think where that could end up.

The human race has been sleepwalking, and it's about to be woken up.

 

[ferball]

I fully ex[ect that post crash weed will be legalised and taxed, probably MDMA too.

It happened in the US. Some cities in California could only generate money by selling pot growing licences. I think Oakland was one. At one point they paid a weeks budget for emergency services after selling a licence to someone to grow 5 hectares of pot iirc.

Contrast that with Nimbin...

Before the GFC we'd get plenty of tourists (even afterward for a couple of years) from Australia and overseas that would spend money in town. Especially on weed. That meant money came into the local economy from outside. The opposite of how things normally work in rural Australia (tho for the last 3 decades pretty much every country town on the East Coast has generated income from pot growing.) Even now I hear stories of farmers in the west of NSW and the Riverina selling heaps of weed just to maintain their ability to bring in water and stock feed. Obviously they are all second and third hand stories but I've never heard anything like that before.

 

[ferball]

I wouldn't take too much notice of that.

The economics of the drug market are also a causative factor in the current economic problem.

How?

 

[Snake_Baker]

How?

The drug market is a huge cash economy.

Did you look at the clips and read the links I posted? Check them out mate.