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Player Watch Reef McInnes

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Kappa said:
Yep, as I already said it's entirely possible if you have a strong preseason behind you. However Reef is coming off a long term back stress fracture and the resulting poor endurance, he doesn't have the talent to simply walk into the round 1 team with all those things going against him.
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You're right. Your comment was jumped on too much by me and others. It's really two different conversations that cross over.
1. Will Reef debut early?
2. Do we have an accurate view of Reef's talent?
I doubt anyone is too concerned about your view that he won't debut early. It's the second question that ruffled feathers, as talking confidently about his talent level doesn't seem possible.
 
sr36 said:
You're right. Your comment was jumped on too much by me and others. It's really two different conversations that cross over.
1. Will Reef debut early?
2. Do we have an accurate view of Reef's talent?
I doubt anyone is too concerned about your view that he won't debut early. It's the second question that ruffled feathers, as talking confidently about his talent level doesn't seem possible.
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No one really will have any real idea until the bye, from there it may become clearer.
 
Kappa said:
Yep, as I already said it's entirely possible if you have a strong preseason behind you. However Reef is coming off a long term back stress fracture and the resulting poor endurance, he doesn't have the talent to simply walk into the round 1 team with all those things going against him.
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Yet he was, by all preseason reports, having a really big impact through the early match sims before injuring his finger. Playing a variety of positions. But what would people who have been to training to actually watch him know. Far better we go off a few preconceptions and draw conclusions based on little more than ignorance. While he may not have done enough to earn a midfield spot for R1, uninjured, he may well have been in contention for a F50 spot.

His endurance issues only became apparent in late 2020 testing. It'd never been listed an issue prior to that. So maybe a reflection that he'd had little training leading into the trials rather than his actual abilities.

His Draft Central profile compiled just before the draft certainly doesn't mention it and the only other references I've seen specifically link it to those trials:

POSITION: Inside Midfielder

DRAFT ANALYSIS: “McInnes is a strong inside midfielder with great athletic capabilities and tied to Collingwood through the Next-Generation Academy.” – Peter Williams

Reef McInnes is a big-bodied inside midfielder who is tied to Collingwood through the Next Generation Academy and one that Pies fans have been talking about for 12 months. Whilst he will naturally progress through to become that inside midfielder – he has all the traits to do so – McInnes spent the majority of his bottom-age year as either a marking forward or rebounding defender, showing off his versatility. It is no surprise he could slot into just about any role and is one that is tipped to cost the Pies a top 30 pick.

STRENGTHS:
  • Contested work
  • Clean hands
  • Strength
  • Marking
  • Versatility
  • Acceleration
IMPROVEMENTS:
  • Consistency
  • Kicking
McInnes has quite a number of impressive traits that standout when on the field. For starters, his strength and power on the inside is a big plus for his role in the future, particularly when he already has the size at 192cm and 84kg in the preseason. Many might cite his 36.2 per cent contested ball-winning rate as not reflective of an inside midfielder and they would be right. McInnes predominantly played outside, usually forward or even in defence for the finals series last year, as the likes of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Will Phillips took the prime inside roles at Oakleigh Chargers. Make no mistake, McInnes would have teamed up with Phillips on-ball this season and made a pretty damaging duo – when they did not have school football commitments – and by not playing in 2020 the Pies might be able to get him for value.

His hands on the inside are as clean as they come, averaging 89.5 per cent efficiency and often he is quick-thinking with his ability to win the ball in close and pick the right exit with a teammate running on the outside. He has a long handball projection which can be placed just perfectly for teammates to run onto, preferring to keep his teammates on the move rather than handballing to stationary targets. When it comes to his kicking, it could improve. He is not a ball butcher as such, but it is inconsistent in the sense that he has the penetration by foot, but sometimes the execution can be off. It is an area that is not too great of a concern for the future, but it will be something the Magpies look at building – along with his consistency – if and when he lands there.

Aside from the on-field strengths, McInnes also has some great athletic prowess for a bigger bodied player. His agility and speed in particular is very impressive, and whilst he did not test in the 2020 preseason due to injury, he clocked a mid-boggling 2.78-second 20m sprint at the AFL Draft Combine. Whilst his agility test was not great at 8.68 seconds, it was not indicative of what he can do on the field, with his evasion and power able to work his way through congestion. Overall, he has that nice blend of athleticism and strength that make him tough to contain on the inside, and then add his versatility to be thrown just about anywhere on the ground and he has a lot going for him.

DRAFT PROJECTION: 15-30

McInnes’ range has been a real talking point, and at the time of publishing, the Magpies held picks 14 and 16. It is anticipated he will slide past both, though Collingwood is expected to complete some more deals to move up the order, and potentially grab another pick later in the top 30 to be able to match the inside midfielder. It might be little solace to Magpies fans after a disappointing trade period, but it is worth noting McInnes shares similar traits to Adam Treloar, though is bigger and stronger, just without the runs on the board. If he can be given a chance as a forward and then develop into a midfielder, McInnes could develop into a top talent given his size and upside.
 

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Gone Critical said:
Not correct. If you want to get any statistical feel for the Brownlow and draft position looking just at a winner won’t tell you anything. Too many variables

If you look at career votes, which is the best tool we have to assess this question, there is a pretty clear correlation between draft position and career votes.

Draft guru has figures for 16 drafts (not sure of years) with these results
Pick 1 63 votes
Pick 2 43 votes
Pick 3-5 36 votes
Pick 6-10 18 votes
Pick 11-20 13 votes
Pick 21-30. 7 votes
etc etc

Same correlations apply to AA jumpers, time to 50 games, time to 100 games etc.

Nothing is absolute and there will be plenty of exceptions but draft order clearly correlates with all the markers of good players.
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I think your point holds about better picks and the value they represent.

For the Hawks, it was top 10 picks that were the nucleus of their premiership sides - Hodge, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis

Brownlow's are a midfielders award in any case and shouldn't be used as a sole barometer.

Plenty of draft currency goes on highly rated KPP's, who rarely if ever poll well in Brownlows - No 1 pick Nick Riewoldt was a star but never won a Brownlow. He was still the Saints best player in most of the years he pulled on the jumper.

The latest draft a case in point Granger-Barrass, Ugle-Hagan, Thilthorpe, Mc Donald were all top 5-6 but will never win a Brownlow or possibly feature that highly most likely. But you build a team around them.

Also, how do those stats take into account the pre-draft picks of the Adam Treloar's, Jaegar O'Meara's, Jeremy Cameron's, Tom Lynch etc who were the uber elites of their drafts but technically got picked up pre-draft. Will Hoskin Elliott was pick 4, but was really more like pick 14 after a bunch of 10 players were pre-selected - Treloar, Shiel, .

Put it another way, if you look at our best paid players, most of them were top 10 talents
- Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Moore, De Goey, Treloar (until 2020).
Grundy a little unique as the 1st picked ruckman of his draft (pick 18) but there are rarely top 10 picks spent on Ruckman given the time taken to develop.
Adams was pick 13.
 
It will be good to finally see Reef out on the park in the VFL in a few weeks. Going to put my conspiracy hat on now. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but were we pretty much the only club who didn’t do a 2km this preseason? Highly unusual since we’ve been doing one the first week back every year for god knows how long, and then usually another one after Xmas.
What if...... Reef actually did tank his combine 2km...? And the club didn’t do a 2km so nobody would get sus if Reefs time significantly improved....?


 
Apex36 said:
It will be good to finally see Reef out on the park in the VFL in a few weeks. Going to put my conspiracy hat on now. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but were we pretty much the only club who didn’t do a 2km this preseason? Highly unusual since we’ve been doing one the first week back every year for god knows how long, and then usually another one after Xmas.
What if...... Reef actually did tank his combine 2km...? And the club didn’t do a 2km so nobody would get sus if Reefs time significantly improved....?


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Why would he tank his TT and not his sprint?
 
Lip Gallagher said:
Why would he tank his TT and not his sprint?
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Maybe he realised his sprint was so bloody good that he thought he might need to back off on the 2k.
 
Apex36 said:
It will be good to finally see Reef out on the park in the VFL in a few weeks. Going to put my conspiracy hat on now. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but were we pretty much the only club who didn’t do a 2km this preseason? Highly unusual since we’ve been doing one the first week back every year for god knows how long, and then usually another one after Xmas.
What if...... Reef actually did tank his combine 2km...? And the club didn’t do a 2km so nobody would get sus if Reefs time significantly improved....?


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Why would the club dispense with a 2km trial for the sake of one player who we had already drafted?
 
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Boris the Contradiction said:
I think he'll start there in the seniors if he makes it.

His endurance and noted skills (seemingly absent this preseason), together with his apparent midfield scope, make him an ideal wing candidate early on.
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Don't think Rantall ball use is good enough to be on the Wing
 
Think having no VFL last year has been an absolutely terrible thing for last years draftees, no chance to really develop in competition. Ruscoe has done remarkably well, Rantall and Bianco look a mile off.

McInnes and the other kids will benefit enormously once VFL resumes and here's hoping some of them are pushing hard for a call up by the second half of the year.
 
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rand corp said:
Think having no VFL last year has been an absolutely terrible thing for last years draftees, no chance to really develop in competition. Ruscoe has done remarkable well, Rantall and Bianco look a mile off.

McInnes and the other kids will benefit enormously once VFL resumes and here's hoping some of them are pushing hard for a call up by the second half of the year.
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Rantall and Bianco are pretty much like New Draftees
 
TheGreatGrundy said:
Why would the club dispense with a 2km trial for the sake of one player who we had already drafted?
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Kappa said:
Considering he had a back stress fracture for a while and probably couldn't train much I think he just has poor endurance.
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You guys really missed the humour in that post I guess...
 

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TradeDraft said:
Rantall and Bianco are pretty much like New Draftees
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All of the really young players are, last year has practically wiped out what they gained - it's like losing 2 or 3 years at that stage in their development - some may never make the grade because of this.
 
TradeDraft said:
Rantall and Bianco are pretty much like New Draftees
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Still, if they were players of genuine AFL worth, you'd have thought the extra year in the system would have given them some advantage over the new recruits. Apparently not.
 
TheGreatGrundy said:
Sure did. Maybe employ emoticons next time for the dim witted among us.
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I thought the animated gif with a tinfoil hat might have been enough of a clue.....
 
Apex36 said:
I thought the animated gif with a tinfoil hat might have been enough of a clue.....
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Animated gif! It was probably too left field for me. I only take notice of our allotted BF selection. But I will take another look and privately decide if it's something I should have noticed and factored in to my reaction.
 

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