JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
- May 31, 2012
- 27,054
- 63,380
- AFL Club
- Carlton
*The numbers referenced below are all from Footywire in the AFL stats app for 21 season up to round 15
Geelong are pushing for a top4 finish and Carlton is a mathematical chance of making 8 OR finishing bottom 4. Despite the difference in ladder positions across a majority of statistics captured by footywire both sides are remarkably similar.
eg: marks, scoring shots, tackles, (Carlton 53 V Geelong 56) frees for and against, contested possessions (G139 V C135), marks inside 50, stoppage clearances, disposals per goal disposals per scoring shot, turnovers, intercepts and even tackles inside 50….so there is ample evidence to suggest that the teams match up fairly evenly in most measures which may or may not come as a surprise to people…
There is no doubt though that Geelong seek to play a higher possession game and this is one difference between the team’s game style.
In possession, Geelong average 225 kicks per game V Carlton 224 looks similar until we see that Geelong have a kick to handball ratio of 1.4 versus 1.7 for Carlton – so no surprises to see that Geelong handball more 164 V 130 which leads to them also averaging 40 more disposals power game ( 390 V 353) Geelong look for players in space and find these players more often than Carlton does uncontested possession numbers ( 244 V 210) and those uncontested possessions hurt opposition over the course of 4 quarters because they are effective – they go into next weeks game with 16% better effective disposal score ( 290 V 250)
How can teams that measure fairly evenly across the majority of statistics achieve remarkably different ladder positions? The answer should come as no surprise to anyone.
Geelong are amongst only 5 teams that have had less than 1000 points scored against them sp far this year, Geelong are #5 ( 989) in the 14 games of the ’21 season – and the other teams are all in the top5 in ladder position. Meanwhile, Carlton have had 1274 scored against them after the same number of games – placing Carlton’s defensive capability at #17 in the competition. As for total points scored Geelong are ranked #3 so far this season and Carlton is ranked #10.
I’m guessing that making finals is going to be pretty difficult if you are neither top 8 in scoring ( despite attacking game plan) and bottom two for defensive outcomes. However, the fact that Carlton is still in the race for a finals spot – shows how close so many (non real contenders) are, in terms of on field performance goes. I think it is becoming more clear each week that any team on any day can beat any other. The clear difference between the sides so far this year is in defensive performance – in fact the clearest differentiator between any top side(s) and any non top4-6 side in the competition is points scored against.
Teague announced to the AFL world (back in Feb ‘20) that he planned to make Carlton into an attacking force in the competition and a delight to watch – supporters would be enjoying an entertaining brand of football and com to games expecting to be entertained.
Well, the evidence this year (and every year) shows that defence wins games and to the extent that supporters prefer to enjoy a win as opposed to an entertaining game the whole coaching/game plan/ player motivation and mind set has delivered predictable results so far…
All that said, it seems that the coach and team are aware of the defensive issue(s) at Carlton and we have heard for months now that both coaches and players are working as hard as they can to improve this aspect of the game. Perhaps the Football review currently under way is testament to the inability of the coaching group to implement a more competitive each way balanced game style – ther eis improvement to be made in both areas attack and defence.
The game is certainly winnable for Carlton – but only if the defensive effort lifts considerably over 4 quarters – about 4-5 goals worth – Geelong are no longer the unbeatable side they were years ago. What they are is predictable, hardworking and above average in execution of basic skills.
Go Blues.
