Prediction Round 10 Changes vs. Essendon

[Randomizor]

Yep these decisions tell us a few things.

Simpson won’t play in the side this year
Darcy, JOM etc won’t come back through WAFL

 

[Kram]

Not good. That's our weakness.

 

[CaseySibosadoHOF]

McDonald over Davies is not making a material impact to the result of this game, I dont think many would debate that, but to me it either shows;
1) They do not think Davies will be AFL level or:
2) There is zero view to the future

I dont like either option.

No AFL coach will admit this, but it's hard to believe selection isn't intrinsically linked to list mgmt. If players that teams actually like signal their eyes are being drawn elsewhere for opportunity, especially when it's a line ball selection call anyways, all of a sudden they start getting games.

My (admittedly optimistic) view is that they like Davies, hearing staff glaze him in media and seeing selection calls at least signal he's close. But he's not kicking up enough of a fuss and/or doesn't have the clubs banging down his door enough for Freo to be worried about losing him. So JL reverts to backing in experience.

 

[freo84]

Two hoodoo meet head to head.

We have never beaten Essendon at the MCG.

We have never lost as Walyalup.

 

[Righteo]

All things being equal I would err on the side of youth, especially when playing a young team like Essendon. Pearce and OMac are 31 and 30 this year, Cox is 28 this year. It makes sense to me to give games to guys like Hugh (especially since he legit deserves it) so that when we lose the older guys, and we're going to lose them all around the same period since they're so close in age, their replacements already have enough experience to step straight in without being overwhelmed. Teams like Geelong and Sydney have built sustained success this way, they never have too many newbies playing at any one time.

 

[poshman]

Two hoodoo meet head to head.

We have never beaten Essendon at the MCG.

We have never lost as Walyalup.

We should aim to win by ten goals.

Keep building form.

 

[swanny1234]

With the Swans game as it is, on Sunday stinks of us having a chance to go top… and blowing it.

 

[mattis117]

With the Swans game as it is, on Sunday stinks of us having a chance to go top… and blowing it.

This is what CHATGPT had to say about this.

I’d probably frame it as a mismatch between what sport is for and what anxious fans sometimes turn it into.


A fan who becomes relentlessly pessimistic about their own team often thinks they’re being “realistic,” but underneath it can be a form of emotional self-protection:


“If I expect failure first, it’ll hurt less if it happens.”


That feels rational in the moment, but it creates a bad trade:

• You experience the stress of losing before the game starts.
• You often miss the enjoyment of the actual journey.
• Wins feel like temporary relief rather than joy.
• Your identity can become tied to being “the smart critic” instead of someone who actually enjoys sport.

And paradoxically, it can make someone feel more invested, not less. They start treating outcomes as a referendum on themselves:

• “If my team loses, my weekend is ruined.”
• “If I believe too much, I’ll look foolish.”
• “I need to predict the collapse before it happens.”

That last one is common with long-suffering fanbases like Fremantle Football Club supporters, Tottenham Hotspur F.C. fans, or generations of Chicago Cubs fans pre-2016 World Series — communities can almost inherit defensive pessimism as culture.


What I’d say to them:


1. Your team does not owe you emotional certainty
Sport is compelling precisely because it is uncertain. If outcomes were guaranteed, nobody would watch.


2. Being negative early doesn’t soften losses
You don’t get bonus points for “calling it.”
If your team loses after you spent a week catastrophising, you suffered twice.


3. Criticism is fine—compulsion is the issue
Thoughtful analysis is part of fandom. Constant doom-posting after every mistake often signals anxiety, not insight.


4. Remember your actual role
You are a supporter, not the coach, recruiter, board member, or selection committee. Unless you’re actually Justin Longmuir or sitting on the board of Fremantle Football Club, your primary job is to enjoy the theatre.


5. Ask: would I still watch if we never won a title?
That question reveals whether you love the sport itself—or only the validation of winning.


And the hardest truth:


Your team will likely break your heart eventually. Every dynasty ends. Most seasons end in disappointment. Even fans of Manchester City F.C., New England Patriots, or Golden State Warriors still spend most years not winning the ultimate prize.


That’s normal.


Healthy fandom sounds more like:


“I want us to win badly. I’ll analyse honestly. But I refuse to ruin the experience by rehearsing disappointment.”


And if I were being very direct:


Your pessimism may feel like wisdom—but often it’s just fear wearing an intelligent disguise.


Given your repeated Fremantle Football Club references over time… I suspect this may or may not be a very timely question. If so: enjoy the ride. Flag windows are rare. Anxiety has a way of making people miss eras they later wish they appreciated more.

 

[mattis117]

Goddam that AI was spot on! There you go, enjoy the ride because if we are fortunate enough to go all the way, you'll wish you allowed yourself to enjoy the whole season more.

 

[estibador]

Here's what I know: JL and his team want to win a flag this year more than any single one of us. We're in win now mode, not develop for the future mode.

Geelong seem to manage to straddle the line between these two aims and have spent the better part of two decades in the top 4 because of it. Under Lyon we went scorched earth 'win now mode, not develop for the future mode' and subsequently spent the better part of a decade in the wilderness trying to rebuild the list.

I'm not advocating dropping experienced players to play younger ones, but an injury like this is the perfect chance to put into practice the club's stated aim of building for continued success like Geelong.

I can't remember the last time I was so disappointed in a selection choice. It's not about a shiny new thing for the sake of it - it's because I've watched every Peel game this year and Davies has been at least as good as OMac in every one and better in most. I wouldn't have advocated for him last year but his form this year has changed my opinion and if he's not ready now, then when?

 

[Purple Jesus]

Goddam that AI was spot on! There you go, enjoy the ride because if we are fortunate enough to go all the way, you'll wish you allowed yourself to enjoy the whole season more.

Few posters immediately sprang to mind.

 

[estibador]

This is what CHATGPT had to say about this.

I’d probably frame it as a mismatch between what sport is for and what anxious fans sometimes turn it into.


A fan who becomes relentlessly pessimistic about their own team often thinks they’re being “realistic,” but underneath it can be a form of emotional self-protection:


“If I expect failure first, it’ll hurt less if it happens.”


That feels rational in the moment, but it creates a bad trade:

• You experience the stress of losing before the game starts.
• You often miss the enjoyment of the actual journey.
• Wins feel like temporary relief rather than joy.
• Your identity can become tied to being “the smart critic” instead of someone who actually enjoys sport.

And paradoxically, it can make someone feel more invested, not less. They start treating outcomes as a referendum on themselves:

• “If my team loses, my weekend is ruined.”
• “If I believe too much, I’ll look foolish.”
• “I need to predict the collapse before it happens.”

That last one is common with long-suffering fanbases like Fremantle Football Club supporters, Tottenham Hotspur F.C. fans, or generations of Chicago Cubs fans pre-2016 World Series — communities can almost inherit defensive pessimism as culture.


What I’d say to them:


1. Your team does not owe you emotional certainty
Sport is compelling precisely because it is uncertain. If outcomes were guaranteed, nobody would watch.


2. Being negative early doesn’t soften losses
You don’t get bonus points for “calling it.”
If your team loses after you spent a week catastrophising, you suffered twice.


3. Criticism is fine—compulsion is the issue
Thoughtful analysis is part of fandom. Constant doom-posting after every mistake often signals anxiety, not insight.


4. Remember your actual role
You are a supporter, not the coach, recruiter, board member, or selection committee. Unless you’re actually Justin Longmuir or sitting on the board of Fremantle Football Club, your primary job is to enjoy the theatre.


5. Ask: would I still watch if we never won a title?
That question reveals whether you love the sport itself—or only the validation of winning.


And the hardest truth:


Your team will likely break your heart eventually. Every dynasty ends. Most seasons end in disappointment. Even fans of Manchester City F.C., New England Patriots, or Golden State Warriors still spend most years not winning the ultimate prize.


That’s normal.


Healthy fandom sounds more like:


“I want us to win badly. I’ll analyse honestly. But I refuse to ruin the experience by rehearsing disappointment.”


And if I were being very direct:


Your pessimism may feel like wisdom—but often it’s just fear wearing an intelligent disguise.


Given your repeated Fremantle Football Club references over time… I suspect this may or may not be a very timely question. If so: enjoy the ride. Flag windows are rare. Anxiety has a way of making people miss eras they later wish they appreciated more.

We should make that guy assistant coach!

 

[mattis117]

Geelong seem to manage to straddle the line between these two aims and have spent the better part of two decades in the top 4 because of it. Under Lyon we went scorched earth 'win now mode, not develop for the future mode' and subsequently spent the better part of a decade in the wilderness trying to rebuild the list.

I'm not advocating dropping experienced players to play younger ones, but an injury like this is the perfect chance to put into practice the club's stated aim of building for continued success like Geelong.

I can't remember the last time I was so disappointed in a selection choice. It's not about a shiny new thing for the sake of it - it's because I've watched every Peel game this year and Davies has been at least as good as OMac in every one and better in most. I wouldn't have advocated for him last year but his form this year has changed my opinion and if he's not ready now, then when?

I wanted Davies too but we have to acknowledge that performances at Peel do not translate to AFL, which is heavily reliant on role playing.

I also feel that it is highly unlikely this selection affects the result at all, but also acknowledge the ruthless match committee selection. They have screened out all the noise of list management and raw numbers at Peel and answered one simple question: which player is most likely to be able to come in and play this specific role better?

It is of no surprise they opt for the 100 game veteran where all other things are largely equal.

From a different lens we can at least be happy that match committee are taking no chances at ensuring we win every single week.

 

[Nodgey]

How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your meat?

 

[Cesoir]

How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your meat?

Come on mate, it's not pudding surgery!

 

[sansian]

This is what CHATGPT had to say about this.

I’d probably frame it as a mismatch between what sport is for and what anxious fans sometimes turn it into.


A fan who becomes relentlessly pessimistic about their own team often thinks they’re being “realistic,” but underneath it can be a form of emotional self-protection:


“If I expect failure first, it’ll hurt less if it happens.”


That feels rational in the moment, but it creates a bad trade:

• You experience the stress of losing before the game starts.
• You often miss the enjoyment of the actual journey.
• Wins feel like temporary relief rather than joy.
• Your identity can become tied to being “the smart critic” instead of someone who actually enjoys sport.

And paradoxically, it can make someone feel more invested, not less. They start treating outcomes as a referendum on themselves:

• “If my team loses, my weekend is ruined.”
• “If I believe too much, I’ll look foolish.”
• “I need to predict the collapse before it happens.”

That last one is common with long-suffering fanbases like Fremantle Football Club supporters, Tottenham Hotspur F.C. fans, or generations of Chicago Cubs fans pre-2016 World Series — communities can almost inherit defensive pessimism as culture.


What I’d say to them:


1. Your team does not owe you emotional certainty
Sport is compelling precisely because it is uncertain. If outcomes were guaranteed, nobody would watch.


2. Being negative early doesn’t soften losses
You don’t get bonus points for “calling it.”
If your team loses after you spent a week catastrophising, you suffered twice.


3. Criticism is fine—compulsion is the issue
Thoughtful analysis is part of fandom. Constant doom-posting after every mistake often signals anxiety, not insight.


4. Remember your actual role
You are a supporter, not the coach, recruiter, board member, or selection committee. Unless you’re actually Justin Longmuir or sitting on the board of Fremantle Football Club, your primary job is to enjoy the theatre.


5. Ask: would I still watch if we never won a title?
That question reveals whether you love the sport itself—or only the validation of winning.


And the hardest truth:


Your team will likely break your heart eventually. Every dynasty ends. Most seasons end in disappointment. Even fans of Manchester City F.C., New England Patriots, or Golden State Warriors still spend most years not winning the ultimate prize.


That’s normal.


Healthy fandom sounds more like:


“I want us to win badly. I’ll analyse honestly. But I refuse to ruin the experience by rehearsing disappointment.”


And if I were being very direct:


Your pessimism may feel like wisdom—but often it’s just fear wearing an intelligent disguise.


Given your repeated Fremantle Football Club references over time… I suspect this may or may not be a very timely question. If so: enjoy the ride. Flag windows are rare. Anxiety has a way of making people miss eras they later wish they appreciated more.

Lol i am a Tottenham fan and a freo suppport.....also a red sox supporter.

Sucker for punishment

 

[Superkoops]

McDonald over Davies is not making a material impact to the result of this game, I dont think many would debate that, but to me it either shows;
1) They do not think Davies will be AFL level or:
2) There is zero view to the future

I dont like either option.

Whilst disappointed OMac has been playing well. I went through and watched highlights of a number of Peel games and OMac figure heavily. Some of i50 kicks coming off half back were very nice putting the ball out in front of forwards.

Both taking a lot of intercept defensive marks.

Hugh has come along way but in the eyes of the match committee OMac is ahead….just.

The other element is perhaps they genuinely believe APearce will miss one game only.

 

[oldgoat]

I hate to say it, but I smell an upset this weekend.
Good news is that I've said that atleast 5 times this season, and we've won all 5 of those games.

We seem to thrive in those backs against the wall sort of game, when we're up against a good side, or on a short break we seem to rise to the challenge.

I feel the extended break and coming up against a weak side could go against us funnily enough, I think the key players for them we need to shut down/Limit their impact is Caddy and Durham, and make sure our wings play accountable as Duursma is one I could see playing a major role in them getting up if he gets space on the outside.

Heart says Fremantle by 70,
Head says Bombers overcome a slow start and win by 8 points, Caddy to kick 4, Durham to have 25 and a goal, Redman to have 25 off half back.
This game to me screams $50 anti bet on the Bombers.

Time to get your sniffer recalibrated Jake's.

 

[oldgoat]

How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your meat?

Vegetables?

 

[oldgoat]

Can we criticize JL now or is it still a no go?

It doesn't seem to matter.
They are just catching breath, messed up their rotations.
They'll be back soon.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I dont understand the selections but trust they know what they are doing given the teams current form.

I trust us even less at the selection table when we're winning tbh, especially when faced with difficult choices. There's a history there of bad decision making.

 

[oldgoat]

Just when I'm trying to like JLo he pulls that crap. Unbelievable. NOD over Sharp is minor but Omac over Davies is stupid. Omac was crap the first 2 games this year and is 30. We should be getting games into Davies now incase we need him down the track. Very disappointing.

Warming up for a shitwin.

 

[Rockmelon]

How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your meat?

Stand still laddy!!!

 

[FreoRicci]

Yeah this is where JL differs from some of the more progressive coaches - not that it makes him worse specifically, just different. In this case he's clearly taking Essendon very seriously based on recent form and he's gone conservative.

However, Davies is the future, he can't do anymore right now and he's ready. I think this happens purely because we also lose Young and Wagner. If it was only Pearce it would've been Davies.

This is my chief worry with JL - we'll preserve ourselves with safety and experience when we could look ahead (and that's Davies and Simpson in my view) to what could be. I really believe that's the difference between a flag and coming up short - but that's me.

Davies isn’t the amazing tall defender people here are making it. Stiff not to be selected on form, but it’s him v McDonald. Just simply have to do.

Simpson has absolutely done nothing for Peel. He’s not close to AFL level with the way he goes about it.

The changes are fine. Still an elite team. Wagner is replaceable. Young not really but the midfield has enough firepower. Defence with McDonald Cox Ryan and Clark is fine, for a few weeks.

 

[jakefooty23]

Time to get your sniffer recalibrated Jake's.

I sure hope so old fella