Preview Round 11 Changes v Collingwood

[sumavich]

Richmond beat Sydney!
Let that sink in

 

[Cobbler]

I refuse to debate such a simple toss away line.
A fixture is a fixture. But you believe what you want.

Thoughts on our loss to Sydney??

‘A fixture is a fixture’

 

[stax on the mull]

Sonny wearing the glove on the right hand in the training photos. Was that some injury from earlier in the season?

 

[anchor man]

Thoughts on our loss to Sydney??

‘A fixture is a fixture’

Not good enough on the night.
Yep a fixture same as thd other two WE WON. Did Sydney " get us, at the righf time?
Can't have one way and not the other.

 

[Cobbler]

Not good enough on the night.
Yep a fixture same as thd other two WE WON. Did Sydney " get us, at the righf time?
Can't have one way and not the other.

You’re not making sense.
Of course they got us at the right time… that’s part reason as to why we lost. I’m not saying they wouldn’t have won everything else being equal, but they definitely got us at the right time.
I’m saying we got Lions and Crows at right time… and we won.
I don’t even see what’s controversial about what I’m saying. It’s clear as.

You think Gold Coast start favourites against Geelong last week if that game was played on round 3?

Anyway, I think this has turned into a different discussion for what was intended. I was simply pointing out that the ladder is so close that a simple win against Port would flip the teams positions.

 

[The Feeder Club]

When talking about shitting the bed in close finishes ... Freo is clearly leading the pack. In terms of premiership points, we are 0 from a possible 8 points. Carlton are 8/16, Melbourne are 8/12, GWS & GC are 4/4, Port are 16/20, Pies are 14/16. The last two are infuriating considering we have their 1st rounders.

I agree with your second paragraph though.

I'm not sure what definition of close finish you're using, but before the saints game I was reading on their board they have played six games already this year decided by 10 points or less and won only one of those six.

Interestingly if you exclude the two basket case teams and look at every team on 3 or more wins, the saints are ranked 15th out of 16 for points for, and have a 1-5 record in close games. We're ranked 13th out of 16 for scoring and are 0-2. I'd have to look into the numbers over a longer period but at first glance this aligns with the theory that defence first teams that struggle to score and can't put teams away will on average lose more close games then more attacking teams, because 1) their games are closer for longer and 2) they don't have that capacity to surge and kick 2-3 quick goals if trailing late in the game.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Has Voss taken a mark yet that wasn't on his chest?

He has plenty of time on that but Jackson can clunk the full stretch marks after a leap.

But Luke must have had ten almost a marks last week. His strong marking has deserted him unfortunately.

 

[Serongnthnks4allthefish]

We're playing the pies at the right time I reckon. They've been hot since their shit start and they probs won't have De Gropey. We are so ****ing due for a karma balancing win, so let's cash in.

 

[Purple Jesus]

I just want to see us start to convert. We’re running at a league high for scoring opportunities and a league low for scores against. That’s premiership shit. We just need to convert at at least the afl average and we’re golden.

 

[JammoMonty]

Kick straight, make the 8. Simples

 

[Alfonz]

I'm not sure what definition of close finish you're using, but before the saints game I was reading on their board they have played six games already this year decided by 10 points or less and won only one of those six.

Interestingly if you exclude the two basket case teams and look at every team on 3 or more wins, the saints are ranked 15th out of 16 for points for, and have a 1-5 record in close games. We're ranked 13th out of 16 for scoring and are 0-2. I'd have to look into the numbers over a longer period but at first glance this aligns with the theory that defence first teams that struggle to score and can't put teams away will on average lose more close games then more attacking teams, because 1) their games are closer for longer and 2) they don't have that capacity to surge and kick 2-3 quick goals if trailing late in the game.

10 points or less is what I am using for a close finish. And only for the teams near us on the ladder, so I didn't use St Kilda.

I agree with what you say about the defence first sides. Melbourne is the perfect example from last year. They were 4-4 from close games heading into the finals (not great for a supposed top shelf side). Then dominated Collingwood and Carlton in the finals and lost both games cause they couldn't convert. The year they won the flag, they actually had a decent attack (top 5 ... which history suggests is a requirement), did better in close H&A games, and went on a hot streak in the finals kicking huge scores.

Although Adelaide last year are on the other side of the fence. They were #1 for attack and 1-5 in close games in 2023. But I suspect too imbalanced with a crap defence. Which they overcorrected for at the start of this year.

 

[arsesmart]

10 points or less is what I am using for a close finish. And only for the teams near us on the ladder, so I didn't use St Kilda.

I agree with what you say about the defence first sides. Melbourne is the perfect example from last year. They were 4-4 from close games heading into the finals (not great for a supposed top shelf side). Then dominated Collingwood and Carlton in the finals and lost both games cause they couldn't convert. The year they won the flag, they actually had a decent attack (top 5 ... which history suggests is a requirement), did better in close H&A games, and went on a hot streak in the finals kicking huge scores.

Although Adelaide last year are on the other side of the fence. They were #1 for attack and 1-5 in close games in 2023. But I suspect too imbalanced with a crap defence. Which they overcorrected for at the start of this year.

Close finishes increase the potential for luck (ie randomness/uncontrollables) to be decisive in the result though. I'm not sure how precisely smallish samples of close finishes define a teams ability to succeed in finals.

There might be some correlation with average age I guess.

 

[Purpletown]

Kick straight, make the 8. Simples

You nailed it there.

 

[Spirit Level]

Kick straight, make the 8. Simples

This needs to be postered all over the changerooms at Cockburn and Optus

 

[Ge3ks]

Kick straight, make the 8. Simples

Nick Larkey would take exception.

 

[Joao]

Nick Larkey would take exception.

Kick straight and win 7 games out of a 100.

 

[Boomer93]

Close finishes increase the potential for luck (ie randomness/uncontrollables) to be decisive in the result though. I'm not sure how precisely smallish samples of close finishes define a teams ability to succeed in finals.

There might be some correlation with average age I guess.

I agree with this. Hard to gauge anything meaningful from such small sample sizes given how much randomness is involved.

From system, to individuals across 44 players, to umpiring decisions, bounce of the ball, weather.

I think Collingwood last year had a large enough sample size to make a judgement on however. I think teams getting a lead and trying to shut up shop became predictable to the pies, so they could go all out with risky corridor type football knowing the opposing team would hardly even try to punish them with turnovers.

 

[arsesmart]

I agree with this. Hard to gauge anything meaningful from such small sample sizes given how much randomness is involved.

From system, to individuals across 44 players, to umpiring decisions, bounce of the ball, weather.

I think Collingwood last year had a large enough sample size to make a judgement on however. I think teams getting a lead and trying to shut up shop became predictable to the pies, so they could go all out with risky corridor type football knowing the opposing team would hardly even try to punish them with turnovers.

Yeah Collingwood has done it so often it reinforces their reliability on getting the win in those close finishes.

It is interesting, given the storm home propensity or the shift up when they go from being in front to all of a sudden being behind on the scoreboard late, how much they might look to turn the tap on and off as it were and how this factors into their game style.

 

[Number29]

Kick straight, make the 8. Simples

I hate those bloody Meerkats! But they are correct.

 

[SiempreFreo]

If Sturt is fit, he’ll get a chance this week with Frederick out of the side, he needs to grasp it both hands and make himself undroppable so Emmett or Walters are dropped when Freddy comes back

T CCTV

 

[sumavich]

Not far from a sellout. Just went on to buy 2 tickets together and it’s only single seats available

 

[Kram]

Definitely the biggest game so far this season.

 

[s_wd6]

Not far from a sellout. Just went on to buy 2 tickets together and it’s only single seats available

Must be a lot of pies fans if it's close to a sell out on a Friday night. Adelaide game also had limited seats left on ticketmaster but that was a public holiday so a lot more dockers turning up.

 

[sumavich]

There is a lot of Pies supporters in Perth these days. They probs outnumber all others apart from Carlton for Vic based teams

 

[ubiquitous226]

Must be a lot of pies fans if it's close to a sell out on a Friday night. Adelaide game also had limited seats left on ticketmaster but that was a public holiday so a lot more dockers turning up.

The Sydney game did as well apparently