Round 23

[Mudeo]

100+ is $6.50.

could be a possibility, Collingwood could rest a few players also, but i cant see it going 100+ tbh. Essendon on the other hand against Port and Etihad

 

[KardiniaPark]

could be a possibility, Collingwood could rest a few players also, but i cant see it going 100+ tbh. Essendon on the other hand against Port and Etihad

Not convinced the can finish a game with more than 19 players! Bombers are $6 just depends what team they name I guess. I think I'd prefer the pies with a full strength team you take those players out of freo and they have nudda.

 

[twarby]

not bad at all

thanks

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

Well Sydney have screwed me twice in a row, but this week me thinks they'll get bent over and introduced to Bubba.

 

[Ferris_rules]

This has been an amazing year, I cannot remember a time where punters actually confidently bet on winning margins > 60 points and in some cases > 100 points.

The AFL has ruined its product by having too many lob sided matches.

This means also that you have to like at the line for value as the H-H option is almost pointless these days.

Taking $1.03 regularly will eventually lead to gamblers ruin.

 

[GoodesStuff]

thanks

Wait for the edit.

 

[KardiniaPark]

not bad at all

Just quoting for new page so no-one misses it.

 

[jamesmac23]

could be a possibility, Collingwood could rest a few players also, but i cant see it going 100+ tbh. Essendon on the other hand against Port and Etihad

essendon only need to win to secure a finals place so i reckon they will cruise to a 50 point win plus have really struggled against port in the past although their team is completely different

 

[Mudeo]

essendon only need to win to secure a finals place so i reckon they will cruise to a 50 point win plus have really struggled against port in the past although their team is completely different

Yeah Port are rabble tho and I believe that Essendon are a 5-6 goal better team at Etihad

 

[True North]

Saints own North and Reiwoldt on 1 leg will still kick 3 goals in the 1st quarter on Hansen. Milne will also kick 3 helping to establish a 15 point lead.

Ross Lyon will then play an 18 man defensive zone for the rest of the night allowing North 70 inside 50's for a 1.4 to 0.0 return. Saints by 5

Geelong at $1.07 is brilliant. Geelong at -24.5 is also good value.

Melbourne will beat GC and knowing the skiiers it will be by plenty.

 

[SpecialComments]

$100 multi on

Geelong
Hawthorn
Brisbane +47.5
Richmond +47.5
Essendon -23.5
Melbourne -15.5
Fremantle +91.5

@ 3.02

 

[KardiniaPark]

Collingwood & Melbourne 37+ Halftime @$5.13.

 

[Slattery_20]

Centrebet Odds:

Fremantle 11.00
collingwood 1.04

hawthorn 1.12
bulldogs 6.00

geelong 1.08
sydney 8.00

st kilda 1.81
north melb 2.00

brisbane 3.40
west coast 1.31

adelaide 1.37
richmond 3.10

melbourne 1.11
gold coast 6.50

essendon 1.03
port adelaide 12.00

IMHO.
Port +40
is a very, very good chance - should be damned good value.

I think we'll win but I can't see us doing the job we should, Essendon's mental demons have large, blond heads.

Freo +40 not a bad look either, Pies are already thinking about week 1
Brisbane not a bad look, have won a couple in a row vs WCE @ the GABBA, maybe + 40 again. Bit better than their record suggests.

 

[Nothing]

Freo +40 not a bad look either, Pies are already thinking about week 1

Please do not give the bookies any more money than you have to. The Fremantle u19s will be competing (and I use that term loosely) with the best team in the business where there will be a number of Collingwood players aiming for a spot in the finals.

If Freo get within 100 I'll consider it a Freo victory.

 

[anabac]

IMHO.
Port +40
is a very, very good chance - should be damned good value.

I think we'll win but I can't see us doing the job we should, Essendon's mental demons have large, blond heads.

Freo +40 not a bad look either, Pies are already thinking about week 1
Brisbane not a bad look, have won a couple in a row vs WCE @ the GABBA, maybe + 40 again. Bit better than their record suggests.

Pies fans and possibly coaches will be looking to week 1 of finals already, but that wont stop the players who are gunning for a spot in the Collingwood juggernaut having the biggest crack of their lives. Not to mention against a team which chooses itself, since Freo have about 24 players to pick from on their list right now.

Freo wont be within 37 at half time, and i have already had $100 at $1.85 with Centrebet on that result. Jam money!

Dont mind the bit about Brissy though.. Can definitely see them getting within 40 for the reasons you just mentioned.

 

[Lensen]

Just quoting for new page so no-one misses it.

sucker has 30 posts per page

only "value" for mine this week is Port and thats only because they are so long. 0.5 units at an average of $17.12 on betfair. I rated it a $1.10/$11 game

 

[twarby]

did their previous dominance over Essendon sway you at all?

 

[Lensen]

did their previous dominance over Essendon sway you at all?

moreso that the bombers have a few out and also that with very rare exceptions (gold coast @ kardinia park type games) i don't like teams being less than $1.10

 

[Trailblazer]

Bet of the round is Crows over 15.5 @ $1.81 Sportsbet (well it was yesterday). Crows flying - and Richmond...well they're Richmond.

 

[Ferris_rules]

sucker has 30 posts per page

only "value" for mine this week is Port and thats only because they are so long. 0.5 units at an average of $17.12 on betfair. I rated it a $1.10/$11 game

At first I thought this was a ridiculous bet, however on further reflection given the potential outs for the Dons and coming back from a tough Perth trip, could be interesting.

I dont think there has been a major upset for the past few weeks, sure the Tigers won over the Swans, but not at the odds as above.

 

[KardiniaPark]

You would think they would be doing everything in their power to try and win and get to 7th so they play their Bunnies the first week of the finals

 

[Borgsta]

coming back from Perth is a fairy tail. Stats look right but you break it down and all the results are normal.

 

[TurboBreuster]

coming back from Perth is a fairy tail. Stats look right but you break it down and all the results are normal.

I do not give the Power any chance of winning this game. Injuries aside the Bombers are playing for a spot in the 8. The Power on the other hand have put in the worst consecutive 3 weeks of any team in the league for some time. If you wanted to go against the Bombers than surely backing them by 1-39 @ $5.3. My only play so far is:

2U COLL -36.5 1H @1.98 (Sportsbet)

 

[Lensen]

I do not give the Power any chance of winning this game. Injuries aside the Bombers are playing for a spot in the 8. The Power on the other hand have put in the worst consecutive 3 weeks of any team in the league for some time. If you wanted to go against the Bombers than surely backing them by 1-39 @ $5.3 would be the way to go. My only play so far is:

2U COLL -36.5 1H @1.98 (Sportsbet)

If you give them absolutely no chance why don't you put your entire bankroll on Essendon at $1.03?

Because Port have a chance of beating them, albeit small. It's whether it's a 1% chance or an 8-10% chance that determines whether Port are "value" at $16-21.

 

[TurboBreuster]

If I was going to place my entire bankroll on one thing it would be StK +39.5 @ 1.11 or the Kangas +55.5 @ 1.08.