Keys
Looking for a cloud to yell at
- Moderator
- #1
The fiercest rivalry in WA footy and if you believe the WA based media, the biggest rivalry in the AFL. Plenty of eagles and dockers fans would agree. I used to
But in reality, it isn’t. Beyond the WA border it doesn’t generate much interest, certainly less than the SA showdown. Even after 28 years many over east still can’t even pronounce derby correctly.
And when you try to conjure up truly memorable derbies from the 55 that have been played, there aren’t really that many
So why might that be? The fans genuinely don’t get along
One answer might be that there aren’t many close games. Just 5 of the 55 derbies have been decided by less than a goal. Another 9 by less than 3 goals making a total of 14 (25%) than could be considered narrow margins. By comparison 23 of 52 showdowns have a margin less than 3 goal. The H2H record in showdowns is also a lot tighter - Port leading 27-25
Over half (31) have been decided by 5 goals or more. West Coast have an average winning margin of 38 points. For Fremantle it’s a less impressive 28 points.
But when you look at it closely, the overwhelming answer is that, basically, Freo are s**t
Consider the following, since 1995 :
Premierships : WCE 2, FD 0
Grand Finals : WCE 4, FD 1
Finals : WCE 19, FD 8
Bottom 4 : WCE 5, FD 9
Aside from unadulterated gloating, there’s also a point to the above.
West Coast and Fremantle are more often than not at opposite stages in their build.
Of the 28 completed seasons, the two WA sides have only both made finals 4 times. They’ve both missed finals 5 times.
When the sides have been relatively even the H2H record is 7-11, Fremantle’s way
It’s the other 19 seasons that underlines the reason why the rivalry isn’t what it might be.
When West Coast have made finals whilst Fremantle watch (15 times), the H2H record is 25-4. It’s even more stark in years when we watch Freo in the finals - 0 from 8 in derbies on those 4 occasions
In essence, it’s a myth that ladder position don’t count in derbies. When one side is better, they win and because we’ve mostly been better, we mostly win. Hence our 32-23 lead
Another curiosity is that apart from a stretch from 1999-2007, wins have come in streaks. Fremantle are currently on a 3 game streak after they broke a stretch of 11 Eagles wins. Before that Freo had won 13 of 16 from 2007-15 (when we missed finals 5 times) to get within one game of levelling the H2H - 21-20 was as close as they got
So onto this weeks game, which given both sides have had indifferent, some would say poor, starts to the season there’s a chance this one might be close. Certainly it’s hard to pick a winner
West Coast had a narrow 5 point loss to North before turning things around a week later with a 19 point win over the Giants.
Fremantle backed up a disappointing 15 point loss to their old coach with a 1 point loss to North. Games they would have expected to win
What do we need to do to win?
Midfield
We saw the difference winning contested possession, albeit narrowly, made to our overall game against the Giants after getting smacked in that metric by North
The good news is that whilst Freo boast an exciting midfield led by Brayshaw and Serong, they don’t boast the big bodies that so troubled us against North. Nor are they particularly quick so our group should be able to match it with theirs
The bad news is Darcy and a likely fired up No Action Jackson (thanks to Woodcock and The West) are well poised to monster Bailey Williams and probably Jake Waterman as there’s really no other option
Our ruck pairing were able to get away with being undersized against the Giants rucks but won’t be so lucky against Fremantle. Darcy took an admittedly ailing Naitanui apart last derby in a BOG performance and Williams will have to play out of his skin just to maybe break even. Jackson will relish the chance to find a return to form against our second string whether that’s Waterman or someone else
We’ll be conceding the ruck, spout mids will have to rely on sharking Freo’s taps. Something historically they haven’t been good at. It’s important that we break even or get close to doing so if we’re going to be able to kick a winning score
Forwards
As a unit our forwards have worked hard managing 26.26 from 2 games.
Darling and Allen are in the formative part of setting up as the key pillars of out attack. They’ve been solid so far but the rust on Allen still needs some scraping. Waterman provided a great alternative avenue against GWS with 4 goals whilst Ryan, Cripps, SPS and some exciting cameos from Long have been dangerous at times
They come up against a Freo defence that remains one of the competitions best. If they can find 10-12 goals, it’ll likely be enough because…..
Backs
Historically a strength of ours, they’ve been a little indifferent so far, particularly our talls who’ve conceded 6.0 to Larkey and 3.4 to Hogan
Fortunately they’ll be covering a spluttering Freo forwardline that has been unable to fill the gap left by noted powerhouse, Rory Lobb
So far they’ve kicked 7.10 and 10.12 against middling defenders so we should be able to hold them to something similar
As I see it, we should be able to balance supply sufficiently to give our forwards enough chances to outscore a low scoring Fremantle.
The danger is Darcy and Jackson dominating to such an extent that we spend the match defending and trying to set up scores from inside our D50 which, as we saw against North, we aren’t great at
Close, low scoring game
Eagles by 8 points with Kelly BOG
