eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: The Bombers lead from start to finish against Sydney, but never got beyond a 20 point lead. Zachary Merrett was stellar throughout, collecting 29 disposals, one of which was a goal, whilst Darcy Parish proved a match winner with 13 disposals and the sealing goal in the final quarter
Melbourne: Melbourne flew out to a great start to the game, kicking the first 7 goals with little to no pressure from Carlton. Gawn and Petracca were heavily featured, the former having 21 disposals and 34 hit outs, Petracca kicking 2 goals amongst his 24 touches. They were run down late though, only winning by the solitary point.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 3-2 Melbourne
Form Guide
Essendon: 1W 0L
Melbourne: 1W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.05
Melbourne: $1.76
Line: 4.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Melbourne
B: Aaron Francis - Patrick Ambrose - Adam Saad
F: Bayley Fritsch - Tom McDonald - Kysaiah Pickett
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Jake Melksham - Sam Weideman - Alex Neal-Bullen
C: Tom Cutler - Devon Smith - Kyle Langford
C: Ed Langdon - Angus Brayshaw - Adam Tomlinson
HF: Jacob Townsend - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
HB: Trent Rivers - Oscar McDonald - James Harmes
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Cale Hooker - Jake Stringer
B: Neville Jetta - Steven May - Jake Lever
R: Tom Bellchambers - Zachary Merrett - Dylan Shiel
R: Max Gawn - Clayton Oliver - Christian Petracca
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Andrew McGrath - Dyson Heppell
I: Jayden Hunt - Harley Bennell - Jack Viney - Christian Salem
Essendon in: Conor McKenna, Patrick Ambrose; Out: David Zaharakis (I live in perpetual hope), Matthew Guelfi (omit)
Melbourne in: Sam Weideman, Kysaiah Pickett, Oscar McDonald; Out: Luke Jackson, Nathan Jones, Joel Smith (omit)
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Melbourne had one of the leakiest defences going around, conceding a goal 25.9% of the time it entered their defensive 50. Essendon may shift Cale Hooker forward for this one to occupy Steven May or Jake Lever to stop their intercept marking and Shaun McKernan gets less attention, the inconsistent key forward vital to Essendon's hopes this season. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will be the main small, but comes up against the best shut down small defender in the league in Neville Jetta, who has held the Bomber well on previous occasions. Young Trent Rivers was composed on debut last week, his run and carry was crucial for the Demons in the second half.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall in terms of differential, whilst Melbourne finished 3rd overall in this particular area last season. That is completely unsurprising given they have a top 2 ruck in the league along with clearance machines like Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw all being very good in this particular area. Essendon will rely on a lot of defensive pressure from Devon Smith, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett and Andrew McGrath who are simply outsized by this Melbourne midfield, and hope that outside runners like Kyle Langford and Tom Cutler can get the better of Melbourne recruits Ed Langdon and Adam Tomlinson on the wings. As far as the ruck battle goes, Max Gawn is arguably the best overall ruck in the league with his tap skill, his ability around the ground and his follow up work, whilst Essendon's Tom Bellchambers is a good technician at a stoppage, he struggles around the ground due to previous injuries entirely robbing him of his mobility.
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne's forward line was unimpressive last year, kicking a goal 18.7% of the time it entered their forward 50. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Essendon might include Patrick Ambrose, recovering from a PCL injury from pre-season, to play on Tom McDonald who has only kicked 3 goals in 3 games against the Dons since moving forward, whilst Michael Hurley will try to quell Sam Weideman whilst he's playing forward. Jake Melksham has kicked 2 goals the last two times he's played his old club, and will probably get attention from Mason Redman, the player Essendon drafted from the trade that got Melksham to the Dees, whilst first year player Kysaiah Pickett will have a tough assignment in Adam Saad.
X-Factor Player
Harley Bennell played his first game for Melbourne last week. If you haven't heard, he's had 25 calf injuries since he moved to Fremantle and it seems the highly talented player might finally get his "run at it", which could be vital for Melbourne.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. Essendon have to break even with Melbourne here, because if they do they will go a long way towards winning this game.
Melbourne: Defensive conversion. They struggled to contain teams last year, which was their biggest issue. Must control the Bombers forwards with no Daniher or Fantasia
Tip
We should win this, but you never know. Bombers by 17
Essendon: The Bombers lead from start to finish against Sydney, but never got beyond a 20 point lead. Zachary Merrett was stellar throughout, collecting 29 disposals, one of which was a goal, whilst Darcy Parish proved a match winner with 13 disposals and the sealing goal in the final quarter
Melbourne: Melbourne flew out to a great start to the game, kicking the first 7 goals with little to no pressure from Carlton. Gawn and Petracca were heavily featured, the former having 21 disposals and 34 hit outs, Petracca kicking 2 goals amongst his 24 touches. They were run down late though, only winning by the solitary point.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 3-2 Melbourne
Form Guide
Essendon: 1W 0L
Melbourne: 1W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.05
Melbourne: $1.76
Line: 4.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Melbourne
B: Aaron Francis - Patrick Ambrose - Adam Saad
F: Bayley Fritsch - Tom McDonald - Kysaiah Pickett
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Jake Melksham - Sam Weideman - Alex Neal-Bullen
C: Tom Cutler - Devon Smith - Kyle Langford
C: Ed Langdon - Angus Brayshaw - Adam Tomlinson
HF: Jacob Townsend - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
HB: Trent Rivers - Oscar McDonald - James Harmes
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Cale Hooker - Jake Stringer
B: Neville Jetta - Steven May - Jake Lever
R: Tom Bellchambers - Zachary Merrett - Dylan Shiel
R: Max Gawn - Clayton Oliver - Christian Petracca
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Andrew McGrath - Dyson Heppell
I: Jayden Hunt - Harley Bennell - Jack Viney - Christian Salem
Essendon in: Conor McKenna, Patrick Ambrose; Out: David Zaharakis (I live in perpetual hope), Matthew Guelfi (omit)
Melbourne in: Sam Weideman, Kysaiah Pickett, Oscar McDonald; Out: Luke Jackson, Nathan Jones, Joel Smith (omit)
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Melbourne had one of the leakiest defences going around, conceding a goal 25.9% of the time it entered their defensive 50. Essendon may shift Cale Hooker forward for this one to occupy Steven May or Jake Lever to stop their intercept marking and Shaun McKernan gets less attention, the inconsistent key forward vital to Essendon's hopes this season. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will be the main small, but comes up against the best shut down small defender in the league in Neville Jetta, who has held the Bomber well on previous occasions. Young Trent Rivers was composed on debut last week, his run and carry was crucial for the Demons in the second half.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall in terms of differential, whilst Melbourne finished 3rd overall in this particular area last season. That is completely unsurprising given they have a top 2 ruck in the league along with clearance machines like Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw all being very good in this particular area. Essendon will rely on a lot of defensive pressure from Devon Smith, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett and Andrew McGrath who are simply outsized by this Melbourne midfield, and hope that outside runners like Kyle Langford and Tom Cutler can get the better of Melbourne recruits Ed Langdon and Adam Tomlinson on the wings. As far as the ruck battle goes, Max Gawn is arguably the best overall ruck in the league with his tap skill, his ability around the ground and his follow up work, whilst Essendon's Tom Bellchambers is a good technician at a stoppage, he struggles around the ground due to previous injuries entirely robbing him of his mobility.
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne's forward line was unimpressive last year, kicking a goal 18.7% of the time it entered their forward 50. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Essendon might include Patrick Ambrose, recovering from a PCL injury from pre-season, to play on Tom McDonald who has only kicked 3 goals in 3 games against the Dons since moving forward, whilst Michael Hurley will try to quell Sam Weideman whilst he's playing forward. Jake Melksham has kicked 2 goals the last two times he's played his old club, and will probably get attention from Mason Redman, the player Essendon drafted from the trade that got Melksham to the Dees, whilst first year player Kysaiah Pickett will have a tough assignment in Adam Saad.
X-Factor Player
Harley Bennell played his first game for Melbourne last week. If you haven't heard, he's had 25 calf injuries since he moved to Fremantle and it seems the highly talented player might finally get his "run at it", which could be vital for Melbourne.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. Essendon have to break even with Melbourne here, because if they do they will go a long way towards winning this game.
Melbourne: Defensive conversion. They struggled to contain teams last year, which was their biggest issue. Must control the Bombers forwards with no Daniher or Fantasia
Tip
We should win this, but you never know. Bombers by 17
