Preview Round 4 vs Carlton.

[HurlsMeister18]

Really starting to look forward to this game, was feeling like we were going to cop a hiding after our Gold Coast game but as we get closer I am starting to get a sniff of an upset here. Just got a feeling Hirdy is going to pull out some Sheedy type tricks for this one.

 

[JD11]

He's gonna recruit Israel Folau and Setanta Ohailpin?

no, justin murphy and campo are coming out of retirement.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

no, justin murphy and campo are coming out of retirement.

We could use there delivery into our fwd 50 at the moment

 

[Krooooze]

Didn't all those players play last time the two teams met ? and we all know how that turned out ..right ?

Should be a good game and i'm expecting a win ..but you just never know when these two teams meet.

Give me Pears or Hooker over Hendo any day

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Collingwood don't "look" like a top 4 side right now because we made them look dysfunctional. They ARE a top 4 side based on any predictive measure (i.e. if you don't think so there is money to be made with the bookies - just don't spend it all at once).

I couldn't give a stuff about any predictive measure, because as of Round 3 it is all entirely pie in the sky. You don't carry over brownie points from the season prior.

And despite cutting them to shreds, it's pretty clear that Collingwood lacked the intensity and endeavour of previous seasons, which could have been said about the week prior as well but for a 5 minute burst courtesy of Thomas. The result was hardly a great surprise, although the magnitude perhaps was.

. . . the point you are trying to make is essentially that any dog may have its day. Had Gold Coast beaten you last week that might have been a case in point.

No, I'm merely saying that at the end of the season the quality and the value of any given victory comes into clarity and not before (this can be applied to NM's win as well). Within the first three rounds last year we had defeated two of the previous years' preliminary finalists, ones that would have had pretty good odds for their own tilt at the 2011 flag around that point, but when the season is taken as a whole those victories are almost a given, and both clubs had lost their coach by Grand Final day.

By the same token, beating West Coast early in the year seemed a given and wasn't given any real value at the time, but retrospect shows it to be a more considerable feat given where the Eagles ended up.

Of course the narrative of a season plays a part as does who is in form and who isn't, but if Collingwood have an absolute dog of a season and miss the finals, and if somehow Richmond manage to make the finals or even win a final (this is of course an extreme example), then surely Rd 1's victory is greater than Rd 3's. That's just my perspective on it anyway, and not really one I expect everyone (or anyone) to subscribe to, but declaring that it's a victory over a Top 4 side is premature.

 

[Malifice]

if somehow Richmond manage to make the finals or even win a final (this is of course an extreme example).

I laughed.

Lets keep it real people!

 

[Windhover]

I couldn't give a stuff about any predictive measure, because as of Round 3 it is all entirely pie in the sky. You don't carry over brownie points from the season prior.

Of course the narrative of a season plays a part as does who is in form and who isn't, but if Collingwood have an absolute dog of a season and miss the finals, and if somehow Richmond manage to make the finals or even win a final (this is of course an extreme example), then surely Rd 1's victory is greater than Rd 3's. That's just my perspective on it anyway, and not really one I expect everyone (or anyone) to subscribe to, but declaring that it's a victory over a Top 4 side is premature.[/QUOTE]

Well you might not give a stuff about predictive measures but they still exist. I was referring of course to "the bookies", those whose business it is to "predict" who will at the end of the season be top 4 sides. This gives what is ultimately a very subjective assessment some objectivity. So when I say Collingwood is a top 4 side I am merely saying that the consensus among the bookies is they will finish top 4. The fact that they finished second last year may or may not feed into that prediction.

To claim that my assertion that Carlton made dysfunctional a top 4 side is flawed because (in your opinion) no one can say who is a top 4 side until the end of the season therefore completely misses the point.

As to your "the narrative of a season" claim, are you saying anything more than that we cannot know how the season ends up until, umm, the season ends? If you are saying only that I agree completely.

But I think you wish to extend that claim and suggest we cannot form "any opinion" about how the season will end up until it is over. And there I disagree. We both believe Richmond will not make the finals and, should that unlikely event occur, would not win a final. We both can say after Carlton beat Richmond round 1: "So what?" The result did not tell us anything we didn't already believe. The manner and margin of the Carlton victory over Collingwood did not surprise me (I tipped Carlton to finish 1st at the end of the season and tipped Carlton to beat the pies by 27 points), but it is reasonably clear that those who might have mocked my pre-season prediction as biased have less ammunition to mock now.

 

[Slattery_20]

If Carlton beats Essendon by 10 goals will you be saying that Essendon is dysfunctional because we saw it in the way Essendon played against GCS and it will be clear they are on a downward spiral?

I think that we need to see more than 3 games make assessments like this on teams. Mike Sheehan flip-flop syndrome is alive and well in 2012.

Exactly.
Pretty much sums up the last page or so.... some people on both sides are getting fairly involved in the philosophical side of footy... extract heads please.

Arguably, our preparation thus far has put us in better stead than this time last year.
Close games, tightly contested, and we have been able to get over the top - where we just failed to get over Sydney last year, and had played an extra 2 or 3 weeks of NAB cup.
Perhaps we have another gear to go to, perhaps I'm being overly optimistic.

On the flipside, Carlton definitely improved across 2012, now looking every bit like legitimate top 4, or even better.

I really just want Essendon to put in a dedicated, four-quarter-effort, and at least force Carlton to beat us. They haven't really had a side show a lot of character and repeatedly come back at them, so who knows.

Good execution could give them a bit of a scare, like we did to Pies on Anzac day (and NAB final) last year even though they did outlast & beat us both times.

 

[Slattery_20]

Might also be beneficial to play Ryder loose across HB. He can cut off Carlton's balls and release Dempsey to penetrate on the rebound. (I know. It's late.)

Pro tip: close the pr0n tab, and you won't keep making Freudian slips.

 

[VelvetSledge]

Enter the Davis.

 

[Slattery_20]

Davis and Lee would be short odds will come in IMHO.

 

[JD11]

. He can cut off Carlton's balls and release Dempsey to penetrate on the rebound. (I know. It's late.)

awesome.

 

[deadoralive]

We will beat these ****s and we will do it well.

Just because a few of their spuds have 1 or 2 good games does not mean they are good players. A spud is a spud is a spud...

Hampson
Carrazzo
Armfield
Bower
Robinson
Henderson

These spuds are going to get torn a new one by us and they will get exposed.

We have them covered and we'll win by about 25 points.

ok, take off your eye patch and start seeing things with both eyes, if you have them available. hampson has surprised me so far this year and is doing very well, carrazzo was b.o.g. last week and destroyed pendlebury (a task i thought was not possible), armfield does his job every week and is quick (something essendon will not be able to counter is our speed, which is frightening). bower is ungangly and un-coordinated at the worst of times, best of times he's just doing his job, spoiling and giving it off to people who dispose of the ball better. robinson - u r kidding, that guy is fu#$%ng nuts and i think you need a kamikaze son of a bitch in your team, who does essendon have that can do this??? and henderson. so far, his tests didn't come from richmond and brisbane, but travis cloke - arguably in the top two key forwards in the game today, first is franklin. and hendo destroyed him. one goal scored because he lost sight of the ball in flight in the first quarter and after that, nothing for cloke who could only get a disposal higher up the ground. so get your facts correct, have a true look at our side at the moment and break it down from defence, ruck and midfield and forward line combination and tell me how you plan to beat us.. my tip is carlton by plenty, and if you look at my history of posts, i don't ramble on too much and try to piss people off, but you are so far off the mark, it's not funny, it's deluded.

 

[cAsEy_18]

ok, take off your eye patch and start seeing things with both eyes, if you have them available. hampson has surprised me so far this year and is doing very well, carrazzo was b.o.g. last week and destroyed pendlebury (a task i thought was not possible), armfield does his job every week and is quick (something essendon will not be able to counter is our speed, which is frightening). bower is ungangly and un-coordinated at the worst of times, best of times he's just doing his job, spoiling and giving it off to people who dispose of the ball better. robinson - u r kidding, that guy is fu#$%ng nuts and i think you need a kamikaze son of a bitch in your team, who does essendon have that can do this??? and henderson. so far, his tests didn't come from richmond and brisbane, but travis cloke - arguably in the top two key forwards in the game today, first is franklin. and hendo destroyed him. one goal scored because he lost sight of the ball in flight in the first quarter and after that, nothing for cloke who could only get a disposal higher up the ground. so get your facts correct, have a true look at our side at the moment and break it down from defence, ruck and midfield and forward line combination and tell me how you plan to beat us.. my tip is carlton by plenty, and if you look at my history of posts, i don't ramble on too much and try to piss people off, but you are so far off the mark, it's not funny, it's deluded.

I think that post was more to try and generate a bit of optimism around our board considering it seems half the posters want to concede the game right now and focus on ANZAC day. Saying we shouldn't be that intimidated of a team boasting those sorts of players.
I would also argue that you should be able to hold your tongue on this sort of comment, considering over on the Carlton board, your preview thread of approximately 800 posts suggests about every third post that only Watson and Hurley would make your best 22, meaning our 3rd and 4th best players, guys like Hocking, Crameri, Fletcher for crying out loud wouldn't make it. Goes both ways, ease up.

As for the game itself, if both teams play to their maximum potential its Carlton by about 8 goals. However how often does that really happen in footy? For the last few years I have always thought that Carlton was a team that when up and running is almost impossible to stop, but when you get a bit of a run on against them they freeze up, dare I say it get a little bit of their own version of the "collywobbles". I'm yet to see it this year, but a big game against a big rival; if we can keep it close at halftime and get a bit of a run on in the 3rd I give us a huge show. Carlton deserve to be rightfully hot favourites but it certainly doesn't mean we're no chance.

 

[Kong]

Carlton guys, please remember this is our preview thread.

Sensible discussion's great, but a few posts have been deleted and/or carded. It's simple; if it's line ball, take it to the banter thread.

 

[Childish Gambino]

ok, take off your eye patch and start seeing things with both eyes, if you have them available. hampson has surprised me so far this year and is doing very well, carrazzo was b.o.g. last week and destroyed pendlebury (a task i thought was not possible), armfield does his job every week and is quick (something essendon will not be able to counter is our speed, which is frightening). bower is ungangly and un-coordinated at the worst of times, best of times he's just doing his job, spoiling and giving it off to people who dispose of the ball better. robinson - u r kidding, that guy is fu#$%ng nuts and i think you need a kamikaze son of a bitch in your team, who does essendon have that can do this??? and henderson. so far, his tests didn't come from richmond and brisbane, but travis cloke - arguably in the top two key forwards in the game today, first is franklin. and hendo destroyed him. one goal scored because he lost sight of the ball in flight in the first quarter and after that, nothing for cloke who could only get a disposal higher up the ground. so get your facts correct, have a true look at our side at the moment and break it down from defence, ruck and midfield and forward line combination and tell me how you plan to beat us.. my tip is carlton by plenty, and if you look at my history of posts, i don't ramble on too much and try to piss people off, but you are so far off the mark, it's not funny, it's deluded.

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Seriously... use paragraphs please!

 

[deadoralive]

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Seriously... use paragraphs please!

paragraphs, fair enough. (very funny by the way!)

as for the other posters on our board, i personally don't care about which players of other best 22's would or wouldn't make our best 22. It's a pointless exercise and i haven't bothered to participate in that garbage and nor shall I.

Conclusion, i'm heading to the g this week expecting a big win, but at the end of the day, i will take any win and no injuries every day of the week. Answer this though, how do you expect to counter the speed? because i can't see how

 

[The House]

paragraphs, fair enough. (very funny by the way!)

as for the other posters on our board, i personally don't care about which players of other best 22's would or wouldn't make our best 22. It's a pointless exercise and i haven't bothered to participate in that garbage and nor shall I.

Conclusion, i'm heading to the g this week expecting a big win, but at the end of the day, i will take any win and no injuries every day of the week. Answer this though, how do you expect to counter the speed? because i can't see how

At times we won't - but this doesn't ensure a result one way or the other....

.....the fastest team does not win every single time two afl sides play.

Essendon need to find ways to win enough footy and hurt Carlton when we have it - speed doesn't neccessarily need to be the answer.

Having said that, I do agree with you mostly - if we had a fullish list to pick from we may have the arsenal to give you a run on our day, but the 22 you put out v's the 22 we are likely to put out = a fairly unlikely chance of a win for us.

If we do win, it will likely be a grinding, gutsy type win in which we out finess Carlton - whereas if the Blues can play to 80-85% of their ability, the 22 we have available are most unlikely to match them imo.

 

[exsing]

One thing makes me nervous about this game. History.

The one game that has given me great joy is also the thing that gives me great fear. And that's the 1999 preliminary final.

The underdog between these two sides are never written off.

I give Essendon every chance. But would dearly love a win no matter the margin.

Would love to put my feet up at 3/4 time though!!!

Go Blues!!!!!

 

[cAsEy_18]

paragraphs, fair enough. (very funny by the way!)

as for the other posters on our board, i personally don't care about which players of other best 22's would or wouldn't make our best 22. It's a pointless exercise and i haven't bothered to participate in that garbage and nor shall I.

Conclusion, i'm heading to the g this week expecting a big win, but at the end of the day, i will take any win and no injuries every day of the week. Answer this though, how do you expect to counter the speed? because i can't see how

We simply can't counter it. I'd love a fit Dempsey, Colyer and Winderlich, if we did maybe we'd be a chance to generate our own pace and make you guys worry about ours just as much as yours but unfortunately we can't. If we simply try and chase your guys around all day we'll get flat out dominated. We do have a fairly 1-paced midfield, but in a way this leads to our only chance to win the game - clearances and contested possessions. With Watson, Hocking, Howlett and likely Lonergan back in the team, we'll be strong in this area. An absolute domination by us in this area gives us a chance. 50/50 in this area and its a comfortable Blues win. A Carlton win in this area and ..well..oh dear.

We can't answer your pace, we just have to make sure that we win enough of the contested stuff that we limit the number of opportunites your runners get.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Ratts trying to pull a Clarko and flatter us in the presser.

Please don't, Ratts.

 

[Phone]

if you're gonna call him by a nickname call him by "the carlton ****" thanks

 

[JD11]

and how did that work for clarko?

 

[Kong]

We need another article on Carlton's "Fab Four".

 

[Sector 7G]

We need another article on Carlton's "Fab Four".

Fortunately Hirdy no longer works at the HS.

Robo has been doing his best to pump up Carlton way before the rest of the media jumped on the bandwagon ( 1 loss and they will all jump off onto the next team to string 2 consecutive wins).