dlanod
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Preview by pulpdriver
Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies
Sunday May 6th GABBA 4:40pm
Forecast: Min 17 Max 27 Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.
The Pain
It was round eight two years ago when the Lions last hosted the Pies at the Gabba and it was a game in which many Lions supporters approached with confidence of a win. Neither team had been traveling particularly well at that point, the Lions with only one win against local rival, the Suns, and the Pies with two wins; a one point win over a Tigers outfit that would eventually miss the finals and a thumping of Essendon, a team without twelve of their best players due to doping bans.
Despite the lack of wins, the Lions had seemed to show some improvement, they had received three large losses, but they had generally scored well themselves. Furthermore, just two weeks prior to facing the Pies they had pushed the Swans, whom would finish top of the table, to a narrow three point loss in a bruising wet-weather encounter at the Gabba whilst the Pies were fresh off the back of a loss to the previous year's wooden spooner, Carlton.
All the pieces were in place for a win that would put opposition coach and former turncoat, Nathan Buckley, under significant pressure as well as buoy our young team with a win they so desperately needed for their confidence. 24,552 people came to the Gabba that Saturday, many were Lions supporters hungry to watch a win and instead what they witnessed was a horror show.
From the opening bounce the Lions were lethargic and listless. The pressure we saw two weeks prior against Sydney was completely absent. When the opposition moved the ball from a stoppage, which it did even more frequently and easily than usual, our players barely got out of a job to cover the ground. Even on television you could sense a sort of quiet bewilderment from the Lions supporters in the crowd. The kind of performance you can't even get angry or sad for, just a kind of energy sapping dumbfounded amazement. This was a team that didn't care. This was a team in crisis.
The Lions didn't score once in the opening quarter and only the inaccuracy of the Pies kept any kind of semblance that a comeback might be on offer. However, by half time the Pies had 28 scoring shots to our 3 for a 65 point lead. It flattered us. It wasn't until the 14 minute mark in the second quarter the Lions actually scored. Had the Pies kicked straight, it would have been well over a hundred point deficit at half time. Any belief that the Lions were on the right track was eradicated. It was now apparent that Justin Leppitsch, whom had his contract extended just a few months earlier, would be lucky to last to the next week. The months that followed were excruciating and signalled one thing loud and clear.
The Lions needed change.
Thankfully, it has come in spades on and off the field since the end of 2016 and although we are still one of the youngest teams in the competition there is a discernible improvement in the team's morale, roster and performances. No, we can't always keep up our momentum during games. Yes, we can blow some opportunities through inexperience and skills errors and yes, we do tend to fade late. These all come with playing a young team but you'd be hard pressed to argue that the Lions haven't improved.
Last year when we met the Pies at the MCG our performance certainly improved tenfold on the previous year. Although it ended as another loss it was one in which we were competitive throughout the game and even threatened for a while in the second half, although we were probably kept in the match somewhat by the Pies inaccuracy at goal.
Now, two years since one of the lowest points in recent memory for the Lions we once again meet the Pies at home. We are young and we are winless but aside from one disastrous performance against last year's premiers we have been competitive in all games as well as being in a winning position in almost every game. Our young boys will be hungry for that win they so deserve for their efforts in what is ultimately shaping as a tough development year.
The Pies
Whilst we look to have improved so do the Pies and currently they're one of, if not the most, improved sides in the competition. With the competition seemingly shifting away from a reliance on talls in the forward and defensive half they seem to be one of the beneficiaries of the new smaller, pressured focused systems.
Similar to Richmond the Pies play a solid, well-drilled and hard working press that can really rob teams of options and stagnate their movement. They don't seem to have as many quick, tackling options as Richmond but they run and work hard as a team to create turnovers and win the ball very well within their system.
For a team that once seemed quite slow with the inclusion of players like Murray, Stephenson and Brown to the side they suddenly seem much quicker. They're not an overly strong kicking team but they seem to have learned to play within their strengths and they use the handball very frequently and well to move the ball to their outside runners.
Their defence is comparatively short to many in the competition but it has worked very efficiently this season. They've built up a strong unit of intercepting defenders with high-flying Howe leading the way and supported by Langdon and former Lion, Crisp. Murray has taken the role of that quick rebounding defender with solid kicking skills and strong attacking instincts that they've lacked really since the departure of Shaw. After two years at the Swans without a game Murray has come straight in to the Pies senior side, hit the ground running and proven to be a very astute acquisition. Maynard and Scharenberg, who seems to finally be getting an injury-free run, have been strong at halfback and topping off the unit is the undersized and thoroughly underrated stopping defender, Lynden Dunn. He wasn't great against the Tigers last week but it's the first bad game I can recall from him for a while and he has been a bargain pick up for the Pies defence.
The bulk of their scoring this year has predominantly come from their midfielders and flankers and they've been rotating names through both areas to strong effect. Their midfield has long been their primary strength and with players like Thomas and DeGoey spending a bit more time in the midfield they've been able to use Treloar and Sidebottom up forward and Pendlebury floating across half back to strong effect. On the outside Aish is having his best year since debuting at the Lions and along with Phillips and, Hoskin-Elliot who spends time between wing and half-forward, they've found some carriers to go with strong ball-winners like Pendlebury and Adams, and hard running players like Treloar and Sidebottom.
Hoskin-Elliot, Crocker, Thomas and Stephenson have all had strong years up forward and proven to form a very dynamic complement to the talls in Reid and Cox. Cox seems to have improved a bit in the past few weeks. The timing of his leads have gotten much better and when he is free to run at the ball without contact, either leading into space or floating across the top of packs, he is proving to be quite an effective marking target. Pies don't tend to kick deep into the forward line very much but you would think as Cox improves his positioning and becomes a more dangerous target this would gradually change as his height makes him very formidable. His goal kicking still needs improvement though.
Finally, perhaps their best player this year has been Grundy who has looked absolutely superb in the ruck. He's strong in the ruck contest, exceptional at ground level and is every bit an extra midfielder the second the ball is hitout in the ruck. At this stage it would be a close battle between him and Gawn for All-Australian honours in the ruck.
The Points
So who gets the points?
The Pies will be without Reid and Aish after both picked up injuries against Richmond although they have of players returning from in injury in Adams, Moore and Elliot. Crocker, Varcoe and the late out Langdon were all rested for the Richmond game so should come back in for Mayne, Blair and Appleby. The big speculation now is whether or not Grundy may miss.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-04-30/more-injury-woes-for-pies-with-grundy-in-doubt
Grundy out would be massive for us and unless the Pies want to give McLarty a debut by fire, which they may well be forced to do, it would likely mean Cox is the sole ruck for the Pies. Not only would this mean a ruck battle in Stef's favour and an opponent he will destroy around the ground, it could hamper the Pies forward structure. Will be a tense wait to see if he is named or not. With Reid out it's safe to assume that Moore will come in provided he gets through training. Adams is one they'd want back in ASAP so if he gets through training should come in for Aish. If both Moore and Grundy are unable to get up the Lions will be given a significant advantage.
We will have only one forced out with Robertson to miss one week for striking Himmelberg. Hodge will come straight back in though I'm not sure if we'll make any other changes. McInerney performed reasonably well on debut and at times probably looked better in the ruck than Stef but he looked a little sore at the end and we really shouldn't need three talls up forward against the Pies defence, and we certainly won't need two rucks if Grundy misses. I would think an additional player up forward that can apply more pressure would be preferable. Claye, Bewick and Keays all had strong games in the reserves and have spent time up forward before so might be options for such a role. Lester wasn't great and considering the need for speed and to be able to impact running both ways against the Pies he might find himself out. He was better in defence later in the game but with Hodge coming back and Rich thankfully back into the side I don't think he's really needed there.
The big one under the scope is All-Australian and three time consecutive Best & Fairest, Dayne Zorko. He has been woefully out of form and the frustration is boiling over for him and supporters. Sooner or later he will need to improve his output because even the best reputation can only carry you for so long and he's currently becoming a liability. I would think we would still persist with him this match, mostly because we need as much help in the midfield as possible and whilst he's not presently giving that to us historically he does play well against Collingwood. I think we back him to play through his form slump in the AFL.
Despite the Pies looking the better team to this stage this is one I think they would seriously be looking at this as a danger game. This will be their third game in just eleven days and they are traveling interstate to boot. The Pies were very impressive against the reigning premiers but after a pressure filled contest they did start to fade a little late which was enough for the Tigers, with their extra day's break to get on top. For us, this means a strong start is imperative. If we can keep up or get ahead of them early then fatigue may come into play in the late stages of the game. Unfortunately, strong starts have not been the Lions forte this year. As it stands we are presently the only team to have not won a single first quarter this year and give up an average deficit of 19 points before quarter time. Hopefully, this is something we can turn around on Sunday.
Midfield is by and large where games are won so we need to be at the top of our game in the centre. The Pies have one of the best midfields in the competition and assuming Grundy is named the ruck battle looms as one of the most exciting aspects of this game. Grundy has been is All-Australian form but our own Stefan Martin has not been too far behind. If he misses we do get an advantage but not one so great that it nullifies the Pies midfield, which has significant edge on us in terms of experience. Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Adams are all top tier midfielders and of course, there is the danger man: Adam Treloar. Treloar is coming into this game in sterling form and historically, he absolutely feasts on the Lions. Since becoming a Pie he averages 33 disposals and 2 goals in his two games against us. As a Giant the stats weren't far off. Over the years we've tried different options to try and quell him, Berry getting the job in his first year most recently, but to date no one has reduced his impact in any significant manner. He is one I'd like to see us put some time into stopping. It's disappointing Robertson will miss because he's one I think could match up pretty well and can certainly match his running. It will be interesting to see what we do, if anything, in regards to Treloar but I worry that if left without attention he will cut us up in the usual manner.
On our mids, last week showed that thankfully Beams might be back to form. He and Robinson were spectacular in the midfield and we will need a similar performance from them as well as Zorko having a greater impact than he has offered recently. The Pies don't tend to run a hard tag but instead opt for head to head match ups at stoppages that aim to reduce impact of the opposition's most influential players, such as Pendlebury on Cripps and Sidebottom on Sloane in their respective games. Once the ball clears they tend to do their own thing as they fall back within Bucks' system so hopefully Zorko may get something of a reprieve here and provided he's willing to work hard when the ball clears he may get the opportunity to get on the end of a few passes and work into the game and hopefully impact the scoreboard. The Pies team wide defensive pressure means it still won't be easy and he'll probably still get some attention, but perhaps won't have to worry about someone constantly trailing him and jabbing him in the ribs. I think despite all the talk he keeps his spot, perhaps we look to stick him on Treloar or Sidebottom and force him to do a job there? Regardless of his role on Sunday, ultimately, the onus will fall on him to work harder than he has been doing. We know he's a great player, he needs to remind us, and his perhaps his teammates and himself why.
This has already gone way longer than I anticipated and has probably tested the patience of most so I might just wrap it up now with a quick look at some other things I'd like to see:
Winning the contested ball and clearances - we've improved significantly in both areas this year after a heavy pre-season focus and our clearances in the centre and around the ground are almost the exact same as the Pies. We still trail in contested possession though, and average over 25 less a game than the Pies. If we want to win, we'll need to win or break even like did against Port.
Smarter inside 50s - We are undeniably efficient for the amount of inside 50s we have, which is the worst in the league, yet we still need to be smarter about how we go inside. We still see far too much sloppy bombing and refusal to lower our eyes when going forward. If we try that against the Pies we'll get murdered through intercepts and be left struggling to catch them on the counter.
Match their pressure - The Pies will use their press to rob us of options coming out of defence and their chase and tackle has shown them match it with and beat the best in the league. One area in which they occasionally look vulnerable is coming out of defence; they often like to move it through hand ball chains until they can hit an outside runner or a clear kick into the corridor. Charlie, Bundy, Rayner and co. (and our mids up the field) will need to ensure that any time the Pies want to move it out of defence by hand they are under pressure and being forced to kick long where hopefully Stef, Andrews, Gardiner and others are ready to mark or spoil.
Choke their options - One thing the Pies do not do is mark the ball inside 50. Pies have the fifth most inside 50s in the league, but the 5th least marks inside 50. When they do mark it, they often mark it wide in the pockets or shallow on the flanks. Considering how they've scored through their mids and smaller forwards this year it hasn't hampered their ability to kick winning scores but I'd love to see two way running that holds them up and forces them to kick to a contest. General Hodge a big day directing our defenders too.
Less turnovers - The bane of my existence as a Lions supporter in 2018. Less please.
So after that long winded rant, who gets the points? Pies the better team but we are improved, they're on a super short break, travelling and may be without possibly their most important player as well as their primary tall forward target. I do expect us to push them though and am torn on which way it goes: head says Pies by a couple, heart says us by a kick or two.
When it doubt, listen to your heart.
Lions by 7
Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies
Sunday May 6th GABBA 4:40pm
Forecast: Min 17 Max 27 Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.
The Pain
It was round eight two years ago when the Lions last hosted the Pies at the Gabba and it was a game in which many Lions supporters approached with confidence of a win. Neither team had been traveling particularly well at that point, the Lions with only one win against local rival, the Suns, and the Pies with two wins; a one point win over a Tigers outfit that would eventually miss the finals and a thumping of Essendon, a team without twelve of their best players due to doping bans.
Despite the lack of wins, the Lions had seemed to show some improvement, they had received three large losses, but they had generally scored well themselves. Furthermore, just two weeks prior to facing the Pies they had pushed the Swans, whom would finish top of the table, to a narrow three point loss in a bruising wet-weather encounter at the Gabba whilst the Pies were fresh off the back of a loss to the previous year's wooden spooner, Carlton.
All the pieces were in place for a win that would put opposition coach and former turncoat, Nathan Buckley, under significant pressure as well as buoy our young team with a win they so desperately needed for their confidence. 24,552 people came to the Gabba that Saturday, many were Lions supporters hungry to watch a win and instead what they witnessed was a horror show.
From the opening bounce the Lions were lethargic and listless. The pressure we saw two weeks prior against Sydney was completely absent. When the opposition moved the ball from a stoppage, which it did even more frequently and easily than usual, our players barely got out of a job to cover the ground. Even on television you could sense a sort of quiet bewilderment from the Lions supporters in the crowd. The kind of performance you can't even get angry or sad for, just a kind of energy sapping dumbfounded amazement. This was a team that didn't care. This was a team in crisis.
The Lions didn't score once in the opening quarter and only the inaccuracy of the Pies kept any kind of semblance that a comeback might be on offer. However, by half time the Pies had 28 scoring shots to our 3 for a 65 point lead. It flattered us. It wasn't until the 14 minute mark in the second quarter the Lions actually scored. Had the Pies kicked straight, it would have been well over a hundred point deficit at half time. Any belief that the Lions were on the right track was eradicated. It was now apparent that Justin Leppitsch, whom had his contract extended just a few months earlier, would be lucky to last to the next week. The months that followed were excruciating and signalled one thing loud and clear.
The Lions needed change.
Thankfully, it has come in spades on and off the field since the end of 2016 and although we are still one of the youngest teams in the competition there is a discernible improvement in the team's morale, roster and performances. No, we can't always keep up our momentum during games. Yes, we can blow some opportunities through inexperience and skills errors and yes, we do tend to fade late. These all come with playing a young team but you'd be hard pressed to argue that the Lions haven't improved.
Last year when we met the Pies at the MCG our performance certainly improved tenfold on the previous year. Although it ended as another loss it was one in which we were competitive throughout the game and even threatened for a while in the second half, although we were probably kept in the match somewhat by the Pies inaccuracy at goal.
Now, two years since one of the lowest points in recent memory for the Lions we once again meet the Pies at home. We are young and we are winless but aside from one disastrous performance against last year's premiers we have been competitive in all games as well as being in a winning position in almost every game. Our young boys will be hungry for that win they so deserve for their efforts in what is ultimately shaping as a tough development year.
The Pies
Whilst we look to have improved so do the Pies and currently they're one of, if not the most, improved sides in the competition. With the competition seemingly shifting away from a reliance on talls in the forward and defensive half they seem to be one of the beneficiaries of the new smaller, pressured focused systems.
Similar to Richmond the Pies play a solid, well-drilled and hard working press that can really rob teams of options and stagnate their movement. They don't seem to have as many quick, tackling options as Richmond but they run and work hard as a team to create turnovers and win the ball very well within their system.
For a team that once seemed quite slow with the inclusion of players like Murray, Stephenson and Brown to the side they suddenly seem much quicker. They're not an overly strong kicking team but they seem to have learned to play within their strengths and they use the handball very frequently and well to move the ball to their outside runners.
Their defence is comparatively short to many in the competition but it has worked very efficiently this season. They've built up a strong unit of intercepting defenders with high-flying Howe leading the way and supported by Langdon and former Lion, Crisp. Murray has taken the role of that quick rebounding defender with solid kicking skills and strong attacking instincts that they've lacked really since the departure of Shaw. After two years at the Swans without a game Murray has come straight in to the Pies senior side, hit the ground running and proven to be a very astute acquisition. Maynard and Scharenberg, who seems to finally be getting an injury-free run, have been strong at halfback and topping off the unit is the undersized and thoroughly underrated stopping defender, Lynden Dunn. He wasn't great against the Tigers last week but it's the first bad game I can recall from him for a while and he has been a bargain pick up for the Pies defence.
The bulk of their scoring this year has predominantly come from their midfielders and flankers and they've been rotating names through both areas to strong effect. Their midfield has long been their primary strength and with players like Thomas and DeGoey spending a bit more time in the midfield they've been able to use Treloar and Sidebottom up forward and Pendlebury floating across half back to strong effect. On the outside Aish is having his best year since debuting at the Lions and along with Phillips and, Hoskin-Elliot who spends time between wing and half-forward, they've found some carriers to go with strong ball-winners like Pendlebury and Adams, and hard running players like Treloar and Sidebottom.
Hoskin-Elliot, Crocker, Thomas and Stephenson have all had strong years up forward and proven to form a very dynamic complement to the talls in Reid and Cox. Cox seems to have improved a bit in the past few weeks. The timing of his leads have gotten much better and when he is free to run at the ball without contact, either leading into space or floating across the top of packs, he is proving to be quite an effective marking target. Pies don't tend to kick deep into the forward line very much but you would think as Cox improves his positioning and becomes a more dangerous target this would gradually change as his height makes him very formidable. His goal kicking still needs improvement though.
Finally, perhaps their best player this year has been Grundy who has looked absolutely superb in the ruck. He's strong in the ruck contest, exceptional at ground level and is every bit an extra midfielder the second the ball is hitout in the ruck. At this stage it would be a close battle between him and Gawn for All-Australian honours in the ruck.
The Points
So who gets the points?
The Pies will be without Reid and Aish after both picked up injuries against Richmond although they have of players returning from in injury in Adams, Moore and Elliot. Crocker, Varcoe and the late out Langdon were all rested for the Richmond game so should come back in for Mayne, Blair and Appleby. The big speculation now is whether or not Grundy may miss.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-04-30/more-injury-woes-for-pies-with-grundy-in-doubt
Grundy out would be massive for us and unless the Pies want to give McLarty a debut by fire, which they may well be forced to do, it would likely mean Cox is the sole ruck for the Pies. Not only would this mean a ruck battle in Stef's favour and an opponent he will destroy around the ground, it could hamper the Pies forward structure. Will be a tense wait to see if he is named or not. With Reid out it's safe to assume that Moore will come in provided he gets through training. Adams is one they'd want back in ASAP so if he gets through training should come in for Aish. If both Moore and Grundy are unable to get up the Lions will be given a significant advantage.
We will have only one forced out with Robertson to miss one week for striking Himmelberg. Hodge will come straight back in though I'm not sure if we'll make any other changes. McInerney performed reasonably well on debut and at times probably looked better in the ruck than Stef but he looked a little sore at the end and we really shouldn't need three talls up forward against the Pies defence, and we certainly won't need two rucks if Grundy misses. I would think an additional player up forward that can apply more pressure would be preferable. Claye, Bewick and Keays all had strong games in the reserves and have spent time up forward before so might be options for such a role. Lester wasn't great and considering the need for speed and to be able to impact running both ways against the Pies he might find himself out. He was better in defence later in the game but with Hodge coming back and Rich thankfully back into the side I don't think he's really needed there.
The big one under the scope is All-Australian and three time consecutive Best & Fairest, Dayne Zorko. He has been woefully out of form and the frustration is boiling over for him and supporters. Sooner or later he will need to improve his output because even the best reputation can only carry you for so long and he's currently becoming a liability. I would think we would still persist with him this match, mostly because we need as much help in the midfield as possible and whilst he's not presently giving that to us historically he does play well against Collingwood. I think we back him to play through his form slump in the AFL.
Despite the Pies looking the better team to this stage this is one I think they would seriously be looking at this as a danger game. This will be their third game in just eleven days and they are traveling interstate to boot. The Pies were very impressive against the reigning premiers but after a pressure filled contest they did start to fade a little late which was enough for the Tigers, with their extra day's break to get on top. For us, this means a strong start is imperative. If we can keep up or get ahead of them early then fatigue may come into play in the late stages of the game. Unfortunately, strong starts have not been the Lions forte this year. As it stands we are presently the only team to have not won a single first quarter this year and give up an average deficit of 19 points before quarter time. Hopefully, this is something we can turn around on Sunday.
Midfield is by and large where games are won so we need to be at the top of our game in the centre. The Pies have one of the best midfields in the competition and assuming Grundy is named the ruck battle looms as one of the most exciting aspects of this game. Grundy has been is All-Australian form but our own Stefan Martin has not been too far behind. If he misses we do get an advantage but not one so great that it nullifies the Pies midfield, which has significant edge on us in terms of experience. Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Adams are all top tier midfielders and of course, there is the danger man: Adam Treloar. Treloar is coming into this game in sterling form and historically, he absolutely feasts on the Lions. Since becoming a Pie he averages 33 disposals and 2 goals in his two games against us. As a Giant the stats weren't far off. Over the years we've tried different options to try and quell him, Berry getting the job in his first year most recently, but to date no one has reduced his impact in any significant manner. He is one I'd like to see us put some time into stopping. It's disappointing Robertson will miss because he's one I think could match up pretty well and can certainly match his running. It will be interesting to see what we do, if anything, in regards to Treloar but I worry that if left without attention he will cut us up in the usual manner.
On our mids, last week showed that thankfully Beams might be back to form. He and Robinson were spectacular in the midfield and we will need a similar performance from them as well as Zorko having a greater impact than he has offered recently. The Pies don't tend to run a hard tag but instead opt for head to head match ups at stoppages that aim to reduce impact of the opposition's most influential players, such as Pendlebury on Cripps and Sidebottom on Sloane in their respective games. Once the ball clears they tend to do their own thing as they fall back within Bucks' system so hopefully Zorko may get something of a reprieve here and provided he's willing to work hard when the ball clears he may get the opportunity to get on the end of a few passes and work into the game and hopefully impact the scoreboard. The Pies team wide defensive pressure means it still won't be easy and he'll probably still get some attention, but perhaps won't have to worry about someone constantly trailing him and jabbing him in the ribs. I think despite all the talk he keeps his spot, perhaps we look to stick him on Treloar or Sidebottom and force him to do a job there? Regardless of his role on Sunday, ultimately, the onus will fall on him to work harder than he has been doing. We know he's a great player, he needs to remind us, and his perhaps his teammates and himself why.
This has already gone way longer than I anticipated and has probably tested the patience of most so I might just wrap it up now with a quick look at some other things I'd like to see:
Winning the contested ball and clearances - we've improved significantly in both areas this year after a heavy pre-season focus and our clearances in the centre and around the ground are almost the exact same as the Pies. We still trail in contested possession though, and average over 25 less a game than the Pies. If we want to win, we'll need to win or break even like did against Port.
Smarter inside 50s - We are undeniably efficient for the amount of inside 50s we have, which is the worst in the league, yet we still need to be smarter about how we go inside. We still see far too much sloppy bombing and refusal to lower our eyes when going forward. If we try that against the Pies we'll get murdered through intercepts and be left struggling to catch them on the counter.
Match their pressure - The Pies will use their press to rob us of options coming out of defence and their chase and tackle has shown them match it with and beat the best in the league. One area in which they occasionally look vulnerable is coming out of defence; they often like to move it through hand ball chains until they can hit an outside runner or a clear kick into the corridor. Charlie, Bundy, Rayner and co. (and our mids up the field) will need to ensure that any time the Pies want to move it out of defence by hand they are under pressure and being forced to kick long where hopefully Stef, Andrews, Gardiner and others are ready to mark or spoil.
Choke their options - One thing the Pies do not do is mark the ball inside 50. Pies have the fifth most inside 50s in the league, but the 5th least marks inside 50. When they do mark it, they often mark it wide in the pockets or shallow on the flanks. Considering how they've scored through their mids and smaller forwards this year it hasn't hampered their ability to kick winning scores but I'd love to see two way running that holds them up and forces them to kick to a contest. General Hodge a big day directing our defenders too.
Less turnovers - The bane of my existence as a Lions supporter in 2018. Less please.
So after that long winded rant, who gets the points? Pies the better team but we are improved, they're on a super short break, travelling and may be without possibly their most important player as well as their primary tall forward target. I do expect us to push them though and am torn on which way it goes: head says Pies by a couple, heart says us by a kick or two.
When it doubt, listen to your heart.
Lions by 7
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