Media Serial Stats: S30 List Assessment and Posting Stats - Midseason Snapshot

[WaynesWorld19]

serial_thrilla

 

[Senor M]

serial_thrilla

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[Pugsley]

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IN: miggs (Royals), Kilroy (rookie), OhhhhhCyril (rookie), MITS (rookie), rocker_oz33 (rookie), SammaGilberto (rookie), kickthething (rookie).

OUT: Norma Lee Ava (Furies), Riviat (Gumbies), Shermy (Hawks) , SC Fish (delisted) , Windows1 (delisted) , I bleed Blue (delisted), WaynesWorld19 (delisted).

*note: Hai_Newman has been added to their list at the commencement of Round 9.


Kicking off for the individual club analysis are the Baghdad Bombers. With 9337 posts over the first eight rounds, the Bombers are once again the team with the most match thread activity. They have an even spread of posters, with eight of them providing over 5% of their total, and thirteen providing over 2% of their total. They generally dominate their match threads, with over 60% of the weekly posts - and have only once been "beaten" in a match thread.

New rookies Kilroy (1273), MITS (470) and kickthething (405) have all been successful additions and are all very active, whilst recruit miggs appears to be reinvigorated at his new home with 203 posts already - compared to 83 for the entirety of last season with the Royals. This appears to have more than offset the losses of Riviat (466 this season), Norma Lee Ava (439) and Shermy (58) over the off-season.

In another positive sign, only two of their players have not posted in a match thread this season: a feat only matched by the Royals.

On the flip side, the big question mark is how they will perform with the loss of their captain WaynesWorld19 - who was averaging 164 posts per week prior to his departure in Round 5. A couple of their rookies (OhhhhhCyril, rocker_oz33) appear to have been failed recruits.

Their activity in Round 8 against the Demons also saw them drop below 1000 match thread posts for the first time this season and only had 13 posters contribute, which is the lowest since Round 14 in S28. This lull appears to have coincided with a drop off in activity from some of their senior players such as KohPhi, Pugsley and TheCoach16. New coach Antonio BlueVein will be hoping to reinvigorate some of his old guard in the back end of the season.

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IN: Ashman OG (returning), Matt_352 (returning), Stoods (returning) , T2B_ (rookie), Bradesmaen (rookie), MC Bad Genius (rookie), VandoHawk (rookie), Gosaints12 (rookie).

OUT: Pea Nut (delisted), Bluella (delisted), mistylake (delisted), The Kingslayer (delisted), Scorpus (delisted), Jatz (delisted).

Another of the big improvers of Season 30, the Dragons have the second highest number of posts (8328) of all teams this season and are yet to be "defeated" in a match thread. Like the Roys, they are forecast to surpass their final S29 posting number (8651) in Round 9. They have the second highest number of match thread posters each week (19.29) and have dominated match threads with 56.95% of the posts. In Round 3 they even managed to exceed 2000 match thread posts in the memorable match thread with the Bombers. Their list is also very well balanced, with 20 posters averaging 5+ posts a week (1st), 19 averaging 10+ posts a week (1st) and 14 averaging 20+ posts a week (1st). They are also not too top-heavy, with only three posters contributing more than 10% of their posts (3rd least) and their top 5 posters 59.04% of the team's total (5th).

The secret to their success? Their recruits. The six Dragons delisted at the end of S29 had combined for a total of 0 posts, whilst the eight new Dragons this season have so far combined for 3799 posts! Now that's good value. Returning players Matt_352 (1298), Stoods (419) and Ashman OG (249) have been in hot form in the match threads, and the five rookies T2B_ (946), VandoHawk (418), MC Bad Genius (203), Bradesmaen (172) and Gosaints12 (94) would all be considered successes.

Existing players have also been swept up in this resurgence in activity, with serial_thrilla (104 up to 159), AceAndy (81 up to 98), A Swallow (36 up to 65), Blaze Storm (19 up to 52) and Pie 4 Life (0.18 up to 12) all seeing significant increases in match thread activity.

What are their concerns though? Depth outside their playing 20 is non-existent, with a single post between the seven players making up the remainder of the squad (equal 2nd worst). Even more worrying is that one of these players is SFA veteran fumbler, who has not been seen on BigFooty for several months now. These "squad depth" roles are hard to fill though without the incentive on an on-field role, so the only solution may be for an off-season cleanout and/or wait for these players to regain interest.

Even so, this has been a magnificent turnaround by Ace's Dragons, considering where they were merely two seasons ago.

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IN: cats2rise (Demons), Tiger God (Bears), omgfridge (rookie), Riviat (Bombers), Spuddd (returning).

OUT: Dero (Demons), jmoo wan (Demons), haydo (Rats), Jack The Godfather (Wonders), Fryer Tuck (delisted).

Barrybran and his Gumbies have been a team to focus on in these sets of data, as they have been struggling activity for many seasons now; the squad depth of teams like the Gumbies has indeed been a key reason to deny expansion. Last season they saw a big jump in posting numbers though, as Barry's recruitment program on top of his own hard work dragged them from averaging 150-170 posts a week in previous seasons up to a respectable 414. This season, they have 3289 match thread posts at an average of 411 a week (11th highest in the league). So a season of maintenance as opposed to growth. They have stood strong in match threads though, with an average of 45.24% of posts, and even a match thread "win" against the Furies in Round 6. However the Gumbies are now the only side not to have exceeded 600 posts in a match thread this season.

Squad depth is still a big issue with the Gumbies, with the top 5 posters contributing 68.71% of their posts (2nd highest) and only ten posters with more than 2% of the Gumbies posts (8th) and more than 10 posts per week (11th).

Their recruits this season have most certainly been pulling their weight, with four of the top six Gumby posters being new. Sole rookie omgfridge (258) has been a success, and recruits Riviat (466), Genghis Tron (436) and cats2rise (324) have all seen very big increases in output compared to what they did in their previous teams last season. GWS Goose (571) has also seen an improvement in his sophomore season. The loss of Dero (217), jmoo wan (84), haydo (43) and Jack The Godfather (136) has been more than offset.

Why have things plateaued though? Taylor's reduction in activity from 90 posts per week to her current 6.4 is a massive loss, as well as TalkingFootyNow1223 not appearing since round 3, whilst there are a disappointing seven posters who have not posted in match threads this season (the worst in the league).

Overall, Barrybran is probably satisfied that he has consolidated his gains in S29 and that his recruits are all firing. The challenge will be keeping them whilst building on his team leading into S31.

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Last round ****ed my average.

 

[serial_thrilla]

IN: MannumPower (returning), projectv (rookie), Mr39 (rookie), haydo (Gumbies), Plugger35 (returning), Ant Bear (Wonders), Wojcinski (Wonders).

OUT: dosser (delisted), Greasyrhys (delisted), rickety (delisted), sportsmaniac89 (delisted), TheMase (delisted), Mr39 (retired), haydo (Wonders).

*note: Gameova_ (returning) added to the squad at the conclusion of Round 8.

With 3650 (9th) match thread posts and an average of 18.0 (6th) posters per week, the Swamprats are another team in the middle of the pack. They only contribute 46.95% of match threads with a couple of match thread "wins" against the lowly Warriors and Wonders. What the Swamprats have going for themselves though is a very nice spread of posters. Their top five posters contribute 57.12% of their total posts (2nd lowest), and have 9 posters contributing more than 5% of their match thread content (2nd). Only two Swamprats contribute more than 10% of the club's output (11th, philreich and SarahSmiles).

They had some mixed results with their new players this season: MannumPower (241 posts) has been very active early on, although his interest seems to be wavering over the last few weeks. SFA admin Ant Bear (263) has been reinvigorated back at his old club, and his average posts per week has climbed from 15.9 in S29 to 32.9 right now. Rookie projectv (33) is a slow burn, but appears most weeks. However Plugger35 (0) and, Mr39 (3, now delisted) were outright failures, and haydo's (32) stay at the Rats was unremarkable and brief. His mid-season trade with Wojcinski (7) could potentially be a win-win for the Rats and Wonders.

The addition of MannumPower and Ant Bear, plus improvements from GremioPower (18.4 to 33), jackster83 (30.8 to 41.3) and Sparkle (17.9 to 40) has meant that they have improved on last season (328 posts per week up to 456), but they could do with a couple more big name posters to support Phil and SarahSmiles in the 50+ post range; someone like Firestarter has the potential to do this, with a big return to the match threads after being absent early on.

With only three posters (including club legend Far Kern) not having appeared in match threads, the Swamprats depth is solid, and Phil + his LG will be quite happy with how things are tracking.

 

[serial_thrilla]

Last round f’ed my average.

Just post an extra 150 posts this week and you'll be back to normal.

 

[MP_]

Unfortunately werewolf games have been my priority of late

 

[serial_thrilla]

IN: nahnah (returning).

OUT: miggs (Bombers).

Much has been made of the Royals posting output this season, and I must say it makes for attractive viewing. 4517 match thread posts (6th) is produced by an average of 20.57 posters per week (1st). They contribute a nicely balanced 50.80% of their match threads, and have been "victors" in 6/8 of them; their 2nd round thread against the Roys was the only major blip, where they only authored 38% of the posts. Incredibly they have only exceeded 600 posts once (their 1446 post effort against the Bears in Round 4), showing steady progress with the ability to really dial it up when challenged. Their top five posters only produce 47.35% of their posts, showing minimal reliance on their more prolific posters. 15 posters (2nd) are putting out over 10 posts a week, and 13 of those (2nd) average over 20. But what really shows the balance is that 15 of them (1st) contribute over 2% of their match thread posts, and 10 of those (1st) contribute over 5%. Only one Royal (co-captain The Filth Wizard) is responsible for over 10% of their posts (the least in the league).

The squad is also rather stable, with only a couple of changes over the off-season. nahnah has returned with a solid 281 posts over 8 rounds, whilst they lost miggs to the Bombers (only 4.88 posts a week for them last season).

On top of this stability is an increase in output compared to last season: from 361 posts/week in S29 to 564 posts/week this season. A lot of this can be explained by that big week against the Bears, but even ignoring that they are at 438 posts/week. This has been supported by increases in output by Filthy (61 to 76), @Noobzor (15 to 54), CakeEater (34 to 43), Blacky (13 to 36), brahj (14 to 29) and Ulahoopski (1 to 27).

Having more average posters per week than positions on the field is a tremendous effort though, but it will be challenging for Filthy and Kennedy Parker to encourage the likes of Cesoir and HawkPatrol to be active without the possibility of getting a gig. Cesoir (19 p/w last season, 1.4 p/w this season) has been one of the only Royal rookies over the last few seasons, so it would be a shame to lose him. Only two players on the Royals list haven't appeared in match threads this season (equal lowest).

The Royals LG should be very content where their list is sitting right now, but it will be interesting to see whether that Bears match was a blip, or if they have the ability to turn up the heat once again if required.

 

[Barrybran]

Incredibly they have only exceeded 600 posts once (their 1446 post effort against the Bears in Round 4), showing steady progress with the ability to really dial it up when challenged.

Are you reading what you're writing or just hitting Post reply? The Royals currently have the best posting unit because they have the highest number of active posters and are doing so without posting for the sake of posting except the one week they decided to **** with the opposition.

 

[Headless]

Are you reading what you're writing or just hitting Post reply? The Royals currently have the best posting unit because they have the highest number of active posters and are doing so without posting for the sake of posting except the one week they decided to fu** with the opposition.

100% the best posting unit right now.

 

[serial_thrilla]

Are you reading what you're writing or just hitting Post reply? The Royals currently have the best posting unit because they have the highest number of active posters and are doing so without posting for the sake of posting except the one week they decided to fu** with the opposition.

What do you mean? Being able to flex in match threads is indeed a strong trait. But as I mentioned later: the question remains as to whether that was merely a one-off due to external influences.

 

[Barrybran]

What do you mean? Being able to flex in match threads is indeed a strong trait. But as I mentioned later: the question remains as to whether that was merely a one-off due to external influences.

There's an underlying tone in your analysis that higher posting equates to better posting

 

[serial_thrilla]

There's an underlying tone in your analysis that higher posting equates to better posting

I suppose the "sweet spot" is yet to be defined. One of the captains in ABV's interview thread mentioned 600 posts per team in each thread...I tend to agree. If you can achieve that with 20 posters and a fair chunk of them averaging 10+ a week, then think you've hit the jackpot. The Royals would be the closest to that right now.

 

[Santoz]

There's an underlying tone in your analysis that higher posting equates to better posting

It is.

There's an underlying envy in your proclamation above

 

[Headless]

I suppose the "sweet spot" is yet to be defined. One of the captains in ABV's interview thread mentioned 600 posts per team in each thread...I tend to agree. If you can achieve that with 20 posters and a fair chunk of them averaging 10+ a week, then think you've hit the jackpot. The Royals would be the closest to that right now.

The sweet spot is precisely five pages between both teams mate.

 

[Barrybran]

I suppose the "sweet spot" is yet to be defined. One of the captains in ABV's interview thread mentioned 600 posts per team in each thread...I tend to agree. If you can achieve that with 20 posters and a fair chunk of them averaging 10+ a week, then think you've hit the jackpot. The Royals would be the closest to that right now.

Demons, Royals, Hawks:
> 300 posts per week every week
< 600 posts per week > 50% of games
=> 10 posters averaging at least 20 posts per week

That's your sweet spot. Multiple people contributing to an active thread without the thread becoming hyperactive.

It is.

There's an underlying envy in your proclamation above

Oh god no. I'd love to have more people contributing each week but what we're getting from those contributing has been excellent.

 

[Santoz]

Demons, Royals, Hawks:
> 300 posts per week every week
< 600 posts per week > 50% of games
=> 10 posters averaging at least 20 posts per week

That's your sweet spot. Multiple people contributing to an active thread without the thread becoming hyperactive.


Oh god no. I'd love to have more people contributing each week but what we're getting from those contributing has been excellent.

Playing Devil's Advocate here, but what's hyperactive figure wise and secondly, what's bad about that?

If activity and buy in is the health of the league then match threads that are deemed hyperactive shouldn't be seen as ugly.

 

[Pugsley]

Just post an extra 150 posts this week and you'll be back to normal.

Not happening this or next week.

 

[serial_thrilla]

IN: Uncle_Leo (Bears), Jack The Godfather (Gumbies), Elmer_Judd (rookie), AngryRanga (returning), J_Chadwick (rookie), haydo (midseason trade, Rats).

OUT: U2tigers (Bears), Elton Johns Wig (Furies), Ant Bear (Rats), Dingster (Roys) Broken (delisted) Kangaroos4eva (retired), Wojcinski (midseason trade, Rats).

Due to the number of key players lost in the off-season, the performance of the Wonders in Season 30 match threads is quite the point of interest. Last season they average 506 posts a week, and their top four posters included Dingster (61 p/w), Elton Johns Wig (67 p/w) and U2tigers (50 p/w): all three of whom are no longer Wonders. When combined with the loss of Ant Bear (16 p/w), that's 38% of their match thread posting lost!

This season the Wonders have posted 3528 times in match threads (10th), which averages out at 441 posts per week: a 13% reduction on last season. When you consider what they lost, is not as terrible as it could have been. Their average number of posters per week is down from 15.81 to 14.14, but several of their existing posters have increased their output to help offset the losses alongside their new recruits (ClarkeM, SweetD and SSwans2011 in particular). The Wonders have only represented 43.20% of match threads (11th), but have still managed two match thread "victories" against the Gumbies and Furies. It was only against the Bombers and Bears where they were overwhelmed in the match thread.

The problem for the Wonders is that they are extremely reliant on their top 5 posters, with 76.98% of their match thread posts coming from ClarkeM (111 p/w), SSwans2011 (77.5 p/w), Grand Uncle Horace (69.9 p/w), SweetD (51.8 p/w) and Bonz (29.4 p/w). No-one outside those five have contributed more than 5% of the team's posts (11th), and only another four have contributed more than 2% (11th).

New recruits Jack The Godfather (136 posts) and AngryRanga (96) have been moderately successful, and rookies elmer Judd (113) and J_Chadwick (14 in his first week) are showing promise. But Uncle_Leo was a bust, and hasn't been seen since Round 3. The Wonders will be hoping that mid-season signing haydo will be able to rediscover his passion from before his expansion bid.

So not as bad as it could have been for the Wonders, but they have a lot of work ahead of them to once more have a healthy list. Skipper Sab22 will be wanting to replace some of those six inactive posters (the equal second most in the league) with some new blood at the end of the season, whilst maintaining the energy from his current engine room.

 

[serial_thrilla]

Note: I just realised that one of my calculations was screwed up, so I'm going through and editing all commentary around this (the correct version):

 

[Barrybran]

Playing Devil's Advocate here, but what's hyperactive figure wise and secondly, what's bad about that?

If activity and buy in is the health of the league then match threads that are deemed hyperactive shouldn't be seen as ugly.

Devil's advocate in response - figure wise it's tough to put a number on these things however what the numbers can do is validate gut feels. When we played the Bears earlier this season it was a high activity thread, fun in parts but by and large only a couple of posters were worth engaging with. We played the Dragons last week who have been panned by multiple teams for being too active early in the season but they were good value for us despite putting up 720 posts as a team. If I were to put a number on it, I'd say 900 posts per week is definitely excessive.

 

[Santoz]

Devil's advocate in response - figure wise it's tough to put a number on these things however what the numbers can do is validate gut feels. When we played the Bears earlier this season it was a high activity thread, fun in parts but by and large only a couple of posters were worth engaging with. We played the Dragons last week who have been panned by multiple teams for being too active early in the season but they were good value for us despite putting up 720 posts as a team. If I were to put a number on it, I'd say 900 posts per week is definitely excessive.

So you're saying >900 is hyperactive and therefore a negative?

 

[Barrybran]

So you're saying >900 is hyperactive and therefore a negative?

I would hazard a guess the quality of a match thread where a team posts 900 times a week would not be as good as a match thread where teams post less than 900 times per week more often than not

 

[Santoz]

I would hazard a guess the quality of a match thread where a team posts 900 times a week would not be as good as a match thread where teams post less than 900 times per week more often than not

Stop dancing about the question.

Yes or no?

 

[Barrybran]

Stop dancing about the question.

Yes or no?

It's not a straight yes or no. The Demons and Bombers last season were both high volume posting teams with completely different characters. One was engaging, humourous and witty while the other posted page upon page of gifs and low-effort nonsense. I've seen hyperactive posting work and I've seen it not work. Hyperactive posting is reactive posting though and not everyone will pull it off.

A team posting 900 times a week isn't necessarily a negative as the three teams averaging those amounts will enjoy posting against each other. But I've seen better posting from those teams averaging less than that amount.

 

[Santoz]

It's not a straight yes or no. The Demons and Bombers last season were both high volume posting teams with completely different characters. One was engaging, humourous and witty while the other posted page upon page of gifs and low-effort nonsense. I've seen hyperactive posting work and I've seen it not work. Hyperactive posting is reactive posting though and not everyone will pull it off.

A team posting 900 times a week isn't necessarily a negative as the three teams averaging those amounts will enjoy posting against each other. But I've seen better posting from those teams averaging less than that amount.

Low effort nonsense to me is not posting at all.

At least with gifs and simple one liners you've got something to work with as an opposition team.

Teams that don't post are the hardest work IMO as there's nothing to bounce off.