Spring Carnival 2011

[mattys123]

Why would you put a Quaddie on tomorrow?

The BIG6 has an extra $1 Million in the pool, and the first 2 legs are Black Caviar and Manawanui.

It's basically a 6 legged quaddie anyway.

 

[footystar_]

Why would you put a Quaddie on tomorrow?

The BIG6 has an extra $1 Million in the pool, and the first 2 legs are Black Caviar and Manawanui.

It's basically a 6 legged quaddie anyway.

exactly! however I don't like Manawanui tomorrow, have heard a few whispers it won't be giving 100% tomorrow just to keep fresh for the derby but anyway who knows ? none of us!

my big 6

Collar/Power Broker
Black Caviar
American/Tullamore/Shewan
Field
Efficient/Glass Harmonium/Jimmy Choux/Lion Tamer
Lady Lynette/Hi Belle/Our Ella Belle

 

[Frankie23]

Yep get on the Big6 tomorrow, Cav and Manawanui look certainties, might add Collar as a bit of insurance.

In the Cox, saw Rekindled Interest's track workout on Tuesday, and he blew Jimmy Choux away (who I rate highly). He loves the Valley and proven at the distance as opposed to Helmet, will jump on Each Way.

Really liking Pinker Pinker as a roughie and also King's Rose, both underrated horses..

 

[Beauy420]

I've narrowed it down to rekindled interest, kings rose and Jimmy.

Way too much going against helmet and I am a supporter of the horse, if helmet wins, he is an out and out superstar, no doubt.

Don't think anyone can win this from a wide barrier box with wide corners and a short straight.

Upsets could come from secret admirer and glass harmonium.

 

[Beauy420]

What happened to niriani?

 

[2121]

Tomorrow's big 6 my selections and form
1st leg
#1 manawuni huge run last start to almost peg back helment, easily the best horse in the field but the extra 440 meters is a little concern considering how hard it went out last start.
#2 Collar... fourth run in this prep every race its gone up in distance and continued to impress.. extra distance again is a plus and is the only danger to manawuni.
2nd Leg
#5 Black Caviar super mare... head and shoulders above the rest of the field and will be 15-0.

3rd Leg
#1 American- A really honest horse that always runs well and you cant afford not to have it in your selections. Its won 2 races first up out of 8 attempts and placed on another two occasions. Drawn well to get a good ride in behind the leaders and sure to be finishing off well.

#2 Booming- Wasnt far away last start good strike rate at the distance with 2 wins out of 5 and another 2 places. good barrier and good jockey on board sure to be in the finish.

#5 Shewan- Good honest horse, suited to any type of surface... will be flying home late.

#8 Paddy O'rielly- was flying earlier in the year, not the best barrier but not the worst, got a good inform jockey on board and i think it will be around the mark

4th leg
#2 ginga dude- good honest horse 1 start for 1 win at the valley, good strike rate at the distance just under 50 percent.

#3 dao dao- been following this horse for the last year, loves the distance, always around the mark in this types of races.. drawn barrier 10 isnt a concern will settle worse then midfield and will be taking off at the 600 and hitting the line hard.

#4 Triple elegance - two starts back would of won but was blocked for a run, inside draw to suit. too good to leave out

#6 luen yat forever - wasnt far away last start, loves the distance, good inform stable and jockey, will be around the finish.

#9 Testa my patience- In form horse of the race, super run last start at the 1400 meters looks like the 1600 will be ideal, drops weight, good barrier, won at distance. only concern is will it handle the valley.

5th leg
#4 Glass harmonuim- been following this horse all carinval so i cant leave it out... i think it will finish in the first halve of the field.. dont think it can win but the way my lucks going ill leave it out and it will win.

#5 Jimmy Choux- 100 percent strike rate at the distance, loves all surfaces.. will settle midfield and be looking to take of around them at the 600 and will be super hard to beat

#9 Rekindled Interest- Money has been for it all week its halved its odds. Loves the valley, Good Jockey on board and sure to be in it at the end.

#10 Shamrocker - Doesnt have the best form leading into the race but after getting told something during the week ill have it in there.

#14 Helment- The most interesting runner in the field, Super run last start broke the track record over the 1600 meters. drops 7kg which will only help it more... only concern is can he run out the distance.

6th Leg-
#1 Lady Lynette- Track specialist only missing the 1 placing out of 7 starts at the valley.. Always puts in a good effort and you'd be an idiot to leave it out.

# 5 Raspberries- Loves the distance, will get the ideal surface for it tomorrow.. Sure to be thereabouts

#6 Hi Belle- Good jockey on board won last start fourth run in this prep, will be hitting the line hard.

#7 Ocean Challenger- Isnt the best horse in the field but this race isnt the best race.. Yet to break through at the track or distance but hasnt been far away, drops 3.5 kg and i think it can run a big race

 

[Ricketts]

The lack of Americain and Luen Yat Forever, who's my clear top pick, is puzzling to say the least.

Americain I left out because 1) He's just warming up for the Melbourne Cup, and 2) The Mooney Valley course might not suit him or other Europeans for that matter.

I've included Illo because I couldn't bare to be knocked out by a Cummings cups horse at this time of the year.

Luen Yat Forever I left out for the same reason, Luke Nolan said the narrow course might be against his racing style, which I'd agree with after reading it. Also a widish barrier might accentuate this, if it sees him drift even further back than normal.

The BIG6 has an extra $1 Million in the pool, and the first 2 legs are Black Caviar and Manawanui.

What's the deal with this one?

Is it actually an extra $1M in the pool?

Or is like what Hoffy mentioned in one of the threads yesterday, a guaranteed pool of $1M with nothing added because the punters would outlay $1M anyway?

If it is $1M added then I might go and put the same bet on as I'd agree with 1x1 for the first two legs.

 

[mattys123]

What's the deal with this one?

Is it actually an extra $1M in the pool?

Or is like what Hoffy mentioned in one of the threads yesterday, a guaranteed pool of $1M with nothing added because the punters would outlay $1M anyway?

If it is $1M added then I might go and put the same bet on as I'd agree with 1x1 for the first two legs.

Yeah, it's $1M minimum pool, which usually the Big6 never reaches, mainly because most punters play the Quaddie instead.

It's arguable to say what will pay more tomorrow, the Quaddie or the Big6, but I'm willing to take the Big6, with probably 1.2 or 1.3 Mill in the pool (which there was last week when they made the same offer) against a Quaddie that may have less then that.

Although, does anyone know what was in the Quaddie pool last week?

If you look at the returns from last weekends Caulfield meeting, with the odds on Sepoy and More Joyous in the big6, it paid 12,000 +, while the Quaddie only paid 1600 +.

I just think the Big6 will have a bigger dividend, even with two odds on shots to start it.

 

[BlueStars5]

There is a 300K jackpot for the BIG 6 with the TAB topping up the pool to $1M if it doesn't reach that. The 300K Jackpot isn't included in that $1M either. So I would expect the pool to be around $1.5 (including the jackpot) Last week with the same Jackpot involved the pool was $1.225M (not including the jackpot)

The Quaddie pool Last week was $2.9M - the Quaddie is never going to be lower then the Big 6 pool, unless there was a $1M jackpot, then it still will be touch and go.

People still prefer to pay the Quaddie, perhaps the TAB take out has something to do with that. For the quaddie they take 20%, with the Big 6 it is 25%.

I wouldn't be surprised if the quaddie pays more then the big 6 tomorrow, especially if the fav wins the 1st leg, we all know who wins the second leg and with the commission that the TAB take it could be on level terms.

 

[Lockyer24]

For some reason I'm expecting the unexpected in the MV Cup

Everything else should go to script

To the big 6 punter above I wouldn't leave Nash out of your last leg

 

[Vince Masuka]

#14 Helment- The most interesting runner in the field, Super run last start broke the track record over the 1600 meters. drops 7kg which will only help it more... only concern is can he run out the distance.

I don't know where you do your form, but you need to throw it away if it told you this.

Didn't get within 6 lengths of the track record last start.

 

[Vince Masuka]

If Glass Harmonium wins the Cox Plate, I will give up punting on the horses.

I got on Rekindled Interest at 10.00. And no, it is not just because of the track gallop lol.

I also like Sincero as a roughie.

No point having an opinion if you aren't going to do it proper, so let's say Glass Harmonium won't get within 6 lengths of the winner on the line. That should do it

Nothing official, but I reckon I had a length or two up my sleeve

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

You were just lucky he missed the start by 6 lengths

 

[Vince Masuka]

You were just lucky he missed the start by 6 lengths

haha, that just meant he had a bit more gas in the tank to get close to 6 lengths at the end. He would have punctured at the 600 if he jumped on terms.

Is a goat.

 

[2121]

#7 Ocean Challenger- Isnt the best horse in the field but this race isnt the best race.. Yet to break through at the track or distance but hasnt been far away, drops 3.5 kg and i think it can run a big race

55-1 you beauty

 

[PieBeast]

^^^ good get mate, got quinella with it.

PS.Does anyone know if Larrican is alright?

 

[danielz_23]

I don't know where you do your form, but you need to throw it away if it told you this.

Didn't get within 6 lengths of the track record last start.

It was a Caulfield Guineas record.

Regardless he didn't get around well enough yesterday.

I am amazed by Craig Williams, been singing this guys praises for years... yet I still fail to take due consideration when handing over my hard earned on something else!!

The one guy you see week in, week out walking the track between races. Ever since he and Hayes parted ways one has gone up and up, the other is almost invisible on the racing scene lately.

 

[The_Doctor]

If there is a rider you want to follow during the carnival its him not doubt. A very strong hands and heels rider with a good whip action and very good balance.

 

[Rough_Edges]

55-1 you beauty

 

[year of the cat]

Interested to hear what peoples feelings are re the derby. Does Manawanui have too much class for the others or may it struggle to run the trip as mentioned by Matt Stewart on this mornings radio?

Does Geelong Classic form (i.e Induna) stack up this year? Hasn't in previous years.

What about the horses coming out of the Norman Robinson?

For me if Manawanui can run the trip its over the line. But.....I have some doubts. Not sure I want to be taking the short odds.

Thoughts?

 

[KardiniaPark]

Interested to hear what peoples feelings are re the derby. Does Manawanui have too much class for the others or may it struggle to run the trip as mentioned by Matt Stewart on this mornings radio?

Does Geelong Classic form (i.e Induna) stack up this year? Hasn't in previous years.

What about the horses coming out of the Norman Robinson?

For me if Manawanui can run the trip its over the line. But.....I have some doubts. Not sure I want to be taking the short odds.

Thoughts?

Whobe was as good a thing as Manawanui and got smashed by a 100-1 chance, so I think you would have to be wary taking shorts but obviously on exposed form and if he runs the trip strongly it is hard to see him being beaten. However, you just never know how much the 2500M is going to improve one those middle of the road horses. Induna looks a bit special as well so I don't think 'Man' is over the line by any stretch.

 

[Didak_attack]

Didn't get the chance to post on the weekend due to work commitments.

Had a slightly positive day which would of been great if helmet won as I had it in a lot of multiples and cost me 2 parlays which it needed to place in.

Had a measly $2.50 e/w on hawks bay after seeing its massive weight drop and decent times at the big weight. (I really don't like posting bets after the fact but I was really happy with that pick.)

Manawanui looked super again I thought. I will be taking it in a few doubles/trebles but not going to bank around it as distance will be a query. I think it will handle it though.

Whats everyone starting to think re: Melbourne cup?

The three that have really stood out for me are Illo, Bauer and Americain.

Am going to start doing proper form research for the cup early this week but based on what I saw, those 3 are pure class.

 

[iluvparis]

The two frenchies and Green Moon are my early top 3.

Best roughies Unusual Suspect and Moyenne Corniche.

Doubt Bauer will make the field.

 

[uptheblues]

I'm hoping Bauer gets a run but its gonna be tough for him from here.
Took Dunaden in the Geelong cup into Dunaden in the Melbourne @ 66 so I'm hoping it runs well and the other one I like is Shamrocker

 

[The_Doctor]

Jukebox Jury will be a must include in exotics, especially if its a soft track. Im not sure his racing style is perfect for a Melbourne Cup but he is a classy horse with winning form over some of the other fancies and at 15-1 is probably worth the risk