Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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Adelaide have established a bit of a break over the rest of the field on the flagpole.

The only years Flagpole got wrong in the last 20 years were 1997, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 (a 75% success rate).

Surely they can't let this one slip?
 
RW said:
Adelaide have established a bit of a break over the rest of the field on the flagpole.

Surely they can't let this one slip?
Click to expand...
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RW said:
Adelaide have established a bit of a break over the rest of the field on the flagpole.

The only years Flagpole got wrong in the last 20 years were 1997, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 (a 75% success rate).

Surely they can't let this one slip?
Click to expand...

Yes and no. It's a bit lazy to look at the flagpole from AFTER the grand final was played.

1990 (Collingwood) - Hawthorn (5th, lost an EF) leading the flagpole at the end of the minor round.
1991 (Hawthorn) - West Coast (1st, lost GF)
1992 (West Coast) - Hawthorn (5th, lost EF)
1993 (Essendon) - Geelong were killing it on the Flagpole, but ran 7th and didn't play finals.
1994 (West Coast) - Carlton (2nd, lost SF)
1995 (Carlton) - Carlton (1st)
1996 (North Melbourne) - North Melbourne (2nd)
1997 (Adelaide) - St Kilda (1st, lost GF)
1998 (Adelaide) - Adelaide (5th) - A triumph for the flagpole!
1999 (North Melbourne) - Brisbane (3rd, lost PF)
2000 (Essendon) - Essendon (1st)
2001 (Brisbane) - Essendon (2nd, lost GF)
2002 (Brisbane) - Brisbane (2nd)
2003 (Brisbane) - Brisbane (3rd)
2004 (Port Adelaide) - Brisbane (2nd, lost GF)
2005 (Sydney) - St Kilda (4th, lost PF)
2006 (West Coast) - West Coast (1st)
2007 (Geelong) - Geelong (1st)
2008 (Hawthorn) - Geelong (1st, lost GF)
2009 (Geelong) - Adelaide (5th, lost SF)
2010 (Collingwood) - Collingwood (1st)
2011 (Geelong) - Geelong (2nd)
2012 (Sydney) - Hawthorn (1st, lost GF)
2013 (Hawthorn) - Hawthorn (1st)
2014 (Hawthorn) - Hawthorn (2nd)
2015 (for some reason, the flagpole doesn't seem to be working)
2016 (Bulldogs) - Sydney (1st, lost GF)

That's 12 premiers picked with the flagpole at the end of the H&A. (maybe 13 - it probably got 2015 right). There are also seven losing grand finalists, two losing prelim finalists, two losing semifinalists, two losing elimination finalists, and one who didn't play finals at all.

Just for the sake of comparison, a quick glance at the leading team on the regular squiggle at the end of the H&A (by diagonal axis)

1990: Collingwood (1/1)
1991: West Coast (x)
1992: Hawthorn (x)
1993: Geelong (x)
1994: West Coast (2/5)
1995: Carlton (3/6)
1996: North Melbourne (4/7)
1997: St Kilda (x)
1998: Adelaide (5/9)
1999: Brisbane (x)
2000: Essendon (6/11)
2001: Carlton (x)
2002: Brisbane (7/13)
2003: Brisbane (8/14)
2004: Brisbane (x)
2005: St Kilda (x)
2006: Sydney (x)
2007: Geelong (9/18)
2008: Geelong (x)
2009: Adelaide (x)
2010: Geelong (x)
2011: Collingwood (x)
2012: Hawthorn (x)
2013: Geelong (x)
2014: Sydney (x)
2015: Hawthorn (10/26)
2016: Sydney (x)

Squiggle leader was going fine for a while, but since 2003 it's only tipped two winners, which is pretty shocking.
 
Just historically, setting aside statistics and algorithms for a brief moment, this season seems to shape more like 1993 and 1997 to me. But 1993 was an abridged season where the best team at the end of the year didn't make finals, the best team across the whole year lost their most two important players two weeks before finals and fell in a hole and only three out of fifteen teams finished with a losing record. With that bye before finals, anything is possible.
 
RW said:
Adelaide have established a bit of a break over the rest of the field on the flagpole.

The only years Flagpole got wrong in the last 20 years were 1997, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 (a 75% success rate).

Surely they can't let this one slip?
Click to expand...

Have you met us? In the last quarter of the 97 GF I had some Melbourne and Collingwood supporters sitting next to me telling me that my team had the game in the bag. I knew my team and knew we still had the ability to lose it from there. We didn't, but there was still the strong chance we could have.
 
RW said:
Adelaide have established a bit of a break over the rest of the field on the flagpole.

The only years Flagpole got wrong in the last 20 years were 1997, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 (a 75% success rate).

Surely they can't let this one slip?
Click to expand...

While I understand where you're coming from, you have to realise that there are few teams with a similar capacity - nay, APPETITE - for disappointment, few teams who have managed to consistently make nothing out of something over the past 20 years as the Adelaide Crows. So until I see Tex standing on the podium with the cup in his hands, I will not rate us better than a 50/50 chance of winning the flag.
 
NikkiNoo said:
Have you met us? In the last quarter of the 97 GF I had some Melbourne and Collingwood supporters sitting next to me telling me that my team had the game in the bag. I knew my team and knew we still had the ability to lose it from there. We didn't, but there was still the strong chance we could have.
Click to expand...

I didn't feel that way back in 1997/98 (I still thought we were a good chance to win at half time of the 98 grand final as we were only 4 goals down).

However, after:
- the 2005/06 minor round success followed by PF failure
- 2007 EF with Buddy kicking the winner with seconds to spare
- missing the top 4 in 2008 due to a 100 point St Kilda win in R23
- another loss basically on the siren in the 2009 "right in front of me" SF vs Collingwood
- shitting the bed in the 2012 QF vs Sydney, followed by a 4 point PF loss to Hawthorn
- being all but guaranteed top 4 going into R23 in 2016, then getting pumped by West Coast at home and finishing 5th

I now have a general feeling of dread and uncertainty when it comes to the Crows and finals.
 
spinynorman said:
Pppfffftttt
Click to expand...

Nah, see, Richmond don't tease like they Crows. How many times have they played finals in the last 35 years or however long since they wont he flag? 6 or 7 or something? They've just generally sucked from the start of the year to the finish (this year aside, obviously), so you know not to expect too much. The Crows, on the other hand, will get you into the finals on a regular basis in order to build your hopes up as high as possible, the long, drawn out, exquisite, excruciating tease... and THEN rip your heart out.
 
Jarman3 said:
Nah, see, Richmond don't tease like they Crows. How many times have they played finals in the last 35 years or however long since they wont he flag? 6 or 7 or something? They've just generally sucked from the start of the year to the finish (this year aside, obviously), so you know not to expect too much. The Crows, on the other hand, will get you into the finals on a regular basis in order to build your hopes up as high as possible, the long, drawn out, exquisite, excruciating tease... and THEN rip your heart out.
Click to expand...

We should've just all gone for Hawthorn.
 

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LittleG said:
Final Siren you are fixated on 7th when it was the most wins by any team finishing 7th. So:
Who many teams have won the flag with a 14:8 home and away record?
How many teams have won the flag within 2 games of top spot?
Sometimes statistics don't tell the whole story.
Click to expand...
These are good thoughts. But I think there's a good reason for fixating on 7th.

First, your premise is misleading ("it was the most wins by any team finishing 7th.") It was the equal-most wins, and it's common for 5th and 6th have 14 wins. Once, even 8th did (North Melbourne 2012).

So 2016 wasn't extraordinary in those terms. It's just somewhat unusual for 7th to have 14 wins. And it's the normal kind of unusual, where you might not see many examples that were exactly the same, but quite a few were similar. Unlike winning the flag from 7th, which had not only never happened before, but lacks any "almost" data points, like, say, 7th making a Grand Final, or 5th winning the flag. Or even 5th making the Grand Final! There's nothing.

Also, just on the face of it, there are really good reasons to look at ladder finish rather than number of wins when we're trying to establish how out-of-the-box 2016 was. What you learn from "they finished 7th" is that there were exactly six other teams in the finals with better results: that's a very relevant piece of information. Switching instead to study teams that won 14 games means lumping together clubs that faced wildly different competitive landscapes -- everyone from Brisbane 2003 (3rd, went on to win flag) to North Melbourne (8th, destroyed by 96 points in EF against West Coast). It may also be subject to spikes and troughs from things like the entry of easybeat expansion teams.

You would much rather be Brisbane 2003 at the start of finals, finishing below only two other teams and with a double-chance to get over them (which they needed), than the Bulldogs 2016, who had to win four straight finals, all as the away team. And so it makes sense to look at finishing position rather than number of games won.
 
Last edited:
Final Siren said:
These are good thoughts. But I think there's a good reason for fixating on 7th.

First, your premise is misleading ("it was the most wins by any team finishing 7th.") It was the equal-most wins, and it's common for 5th and 6th have 14 wins. Once, even 8th did (North Melbourne 2012).

So 2016 wasn't extraordinary in those terms. It's just somewhat unusual for 7th to have 14 wins.
Click to expand...

Not to discount the rest of the post, but the bulldogs actually had 15 wins last year.
 
Final Siren said:
These are good thoughts. But I think there's a good reason for fixating on 7th.

First, your premise is misleading ("it was the most wins by any team finishing 7th.") It was the equal-most wins, and it's common for 5th and 6th have 14 wins. Once, even 8th did (North Melbourne 2012).

So 2016 wasn't extraordinary in those terms. It's just somewhat unusual for 7th to have 14 wins. And it's the normal kind of unusual, where you might not see many examples that were exactly the same, but quite a few were similar. Unlike winning the flag from 7th, which had not only never happened before, but lacks any "almost" data points, like, say, 7th making a Grand Final, or 5th winning the flag. Or even 5th making the Grand Final! There's nothing.

Also, just on the face of it, there are really good reasons to look at ladder finish rather than number of wins when we're trying to establish how out-of-the-box 2016 was. What you learn from "they finished 7th" is that there were exactly six other teams in the finals with better results: that's a very relevant piece of information. Switching instead to study teams that won 14 games means lumping together clubs that faced wildly different competitive landscapes -- everyone from Brisbane 2003 (3rd, went on to win flag) to North Melbourne (8th, destroyed by 96 points in EF against West Coast). It may also be subject to spikes and troughs from things like the entry of easybeat expansion teams.

You would much rather be Brisbane 2003 at the start of finals, finishing below only two other teams and with a double-chance to get over them (which they needed), than the Bulldogs 2016, who had to win four straight finals, all as the away team. And so it makes sense to look at finishing position rather than number of games won.
Click to expand...

Sorry FS, it was actually 15 wins. Agree there were 7 strong teams last year.
Looks like a lot less strong teams this year....
 
If AFL get wind of this then they will never get rid of the pre-finals bye.

Frankly, you are playing a dangerous game here and I would strongly encourage you to think about creating some false data about increased rates of concussion in the round following a bye.

Otherwise I'm holding you personally responsible for AFLX getting a second go around.
 
Jarman3 said:
Nah, see, Richmond don't tease like they Crows. How many times have they played finals in the last 35 years or however long since they wont he flag? 6 or 7 or something? They've just generally sucked from the start of the year to the finish (this year aside, obviously), so you know not to expect too much. The Crows, on the other hand, will get you into the finals on a regular basis in order to build your hopes up as high as possible, the long, drawn out, exquisite, excruciating tease... and THEN rip your heart out.
Click to expand...
You ever been knocked out of finals from a team that placed 9th and didn't even qualify, that's disappointment.
 
MightyTiger said:
You ever been knocked out of finals from a team that placed 9th and didn't even qualify, that's disappointment.
Click to expand...
I have to admit that at the time I was pretty entertained by Richmond making the finals and somehow managing to get knocked out by 9th place. Only Richmond could manage something so Richmond-y.
 
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