Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[Komrade_Tiger]

weekly squiggle checks are now mandatory.

Order has been restored to the universe

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Funny, chunkychicken hasn't been posting much this year about how the Squiggle isn't rating Sydney. I wonder why that is?

 

[The Swans Blog]

Funny, chunkychicken hasn't been posting much this year about how the Squiggle isn't rating Sydney. I wonder why that is?

I've barely posted on bigfooty this season. All my time going to my blog -
http://theswansblog.com

 

[saintsman24]

The Arc has just started testing this: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/04/07/fantasy-points-what-are-they-good-for/

He's getting pretty good early results: 70% tipping based on fantasy points alone. That's very promising, I reckon.

The problem, as usual, is that the AFL & Champion Data have most of the useful stats locked up tight, so no-one else can analyze them. This drives the amateur stats guys crazy, because they could do amazing things if the data were available. But it's not.

So if you want to build a player-based model, it has to rely only on the crudest metrics, like disposals.

Me and a mate had a model that was a combination of a Squiggle type and a more accurate player rating stat that proved to be only slightly more accurate. Weather affected the way teams scored much more however I have yet to see a model include weather as a variable.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Me and a mate had a model that was a combination of a Squiggle type and a more accurate player rating stat that proved to be only slightly more accurate. Weather affected the way teams scored much more however I have yet to see a model include weather as a variable.

Maybe a simple binary option for weather?

However it would require the modeller to make a call as to whether a match was wet or dry.

Analysis of past wet weather games would also need to be done to see what sort of impact it has on scoring. The problem is that's not something you can easily find out for past games without looking at the match reports of low scoring games. So it would require quite a bit of upfront work to go back through the last few years worth of games and code them as wet or dry.

 

[saintsman24]

Maybe a simple binary option for weather?

However it would require the modeller to make a call as to whether a match was wet or dry.

Analysis of past wet weather games would also need to be done to see what sort of impact it has on scoring. The problem is that's not something you can easily find out for past games without looking at the match reports of low scoring games. So it would require quite a bit of upfront work to go back through the last few years worth of games and code them as wet or dry.

Making the call on whether a game is classed as "wet" or "dry" is something I've always thought about...

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Making the call on whether a game is classed as "wet" or "dry" is something I've always thought about...

It would certainly be a margin call. Obviously the Carlton v Essendon game was a wet game, but was Richmond v West Coast wet enough to call it a wet game?

If you wanted to get really technical you could apply a 25%/50%/75%/100% weighting, but you start to get to the point where you're doing a lot of extra work for very little improvement to the overall model.

 

[Rotayjay]

I can't follow footy without Squiggle anymore.

 

[saintsman24]

It would certainly be a margin call. Obviously the Carlton v Essendon game was a wet game, but was Richmond v West Coast wet enough to call it a wet game?

If you wanted to get really technical you could apply a 25%/50%/75%/100% weighting, but you start to get to the point where you're doing a lot of extra work for very little improvement to the overall model.

You could maybe say once there has been x amount of rain for y amount of time before a game it would be likely classified as wet?

It is the extra couple of percent in accuracy you could pick up from doing this combined with say a player ratings system combined with possibly another variable or 2 that could increase your accuracy 5-7% which would be worth it if you were say a punter.

 

[iluvparis]

You could maybe say once there has been x amount of rain for y amount of time before a game it would be likely classified as wet?

It is the extra couple of percent in accuracy you could pick up from doing this combined with say a player ratings system combined with possibly another variable or 2 that could increase your accuracy 5-7% which would be worth it if you were say a punter.

Given how accurate the squiggle is already I'd be staggered if it improved the ratings another 5-7%!!!! 0.5-0.7% maybe which means it isnt really worth the work

 

[saintsman24]

Given how accurate the squiggle is already I'd be staggered if it improved the ratings another 5-7%!!!! 0.5-0.7% maybe which means it isnt really worth the work

I ment a combination of including player rating, weather, and maybe 2 or 3 other variables that squiggle doesn't take into account. What these other ones would be I am unsure.

 

[Final Siren]

That is terrific. At the end of each season you should make a gif that goes all the way from Round 1 to Round 23 (can a gif have that many frames?)

I really need to get a better screen capture program. But this is what 2016 looked like:

Direct link if the above doesn't work

Notable:

- The final 8 becoming very settled very early, except for the order, which remained open right until the end

- Adelaide's final-round hari-kari

- Port & Richmond sliding out of finals contention in the first 4 or 5 rounds

 

[Clems Knee]

I really need to get a better screen capture program. But this is what 2016 looked like:

Direct link if the above doesn't work

Notable:

- The final 8 becoming very settled very early, except for the order, which remained open right until the end

- Adelaide's final-round hari-kari

- Port & Richmond sliding out of finals contention in the first 4 or 5 rounds

Why does Round 23 end with diagonal lines between the clubs, and not horizontal?

 

[Final Siren]

Why does Round 23 end with diagonal lines between the clubs, and not horizontal?

Good question! It's because the visualization trades away some precision in exchange for nice clump-like shapes.

A strict version would have no angled lines at all, but only sharp steps. However, this looks like dog food, and is hard to make sense of at a glance.

 

[CotchNCo]

I really need to get a better screen capture program. But this is what 2016 looked like:

Direct link if the above doesn't work

Notable:

- The final 8 becoming very settled very early, except for the order, which remained open right until the end

- Adelaide's final-round hari-kari

- Port & Richmond sliding out of finals contention in the first 4 or 5 rounds

ITS ALIVE, ITS ALIVE!!!!!!

 

[igon value]

Not sure this format will work for everyone, but lemme see...

Animated Tower of Power
​

Direct link.

The tower of power is squeezing something brown out.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Notable:
- Adelaide's final-round hari-kari

Looking at that time series. especially right at the end, it's hard to know how Adelaide managed to not finish in the top 4!

 

[Hobbes]

Making the call on whether a game is classed as "wet" or "dry" is something I've always thought about...

It could be like the condition of a racetrack is officially declared - from Firm 1 to Heavy 10. Or the old method of Fast, Good, Dead, Slow or Heavy. Tough to incorporate wind conditions though.

 

[Headless]

This... this thread is so beautiful.

 

[armpit]

This... this thread is so beautiful.

Yes it is beautiful. I liked the bit where the purple flexed it's muscle.

 

[Power Raid]

Be interesting to see squiggle after port v gws

I'm thinking port will lose this one

 

[HTT]

Final Siren is there a chart showing every team from their inception without dropping any results?

 

[the_big_sav]

I really need to get a better screen capture program. But this is what 2016 looked like:

Direct link if the above doesn't work

Notable:

- The final 8 becoming very settled very early, except for the order, which remained open right until the end

- Adelaide's final-round hari-kari

- Port & Richmond sliding out of finals contention in the first 4 or 5 rounds

lol the north movements

 

[Matele]

Yes it is beautiful. I liked the bit where the purple flexed it's muscle.

Like a 15 year old that's just hit puberty.

 

[radiojake]

Haven't been a big squiggle follower, so correct me if I'm wrong

Will Adelaide head to the left regardless if they win big or small if Essendon kick more than 10 goals?