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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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So I created an account just to ask this, since the Squiggle is the only thread I read & only statistical analysis on footy I keep up with.
I'm intrigued by the favourable weighting of Port. Yes, I support the Crows. But I live in Sydney and honestly have no crazy venomous hatred of them (at least that I'm aware of).
Just statistically they've played 3 games against current top 8 teams, and haven't won any of them: 0/3.
In terms of games vs teams in the 8 (as I write this): Crows are 3/3. GWS are 3/5. Cats are 2/2. WCE are 3/4. Tigers are 1/4. Dogs are 1/4.
Yet Port, which was valued mediocrely by Squiggle last year, is now expected to lose the GF.
Yes the top 8 changes, and there's probably heaps the Squiggle takes account of that nullifies the above stat, but just interested...
 
heykrazi said:
So I created an account just to ask this, since the Squiggle is the only thread I read & only statistical analysis on footy I keep up with.
I'm intrigued by the favourable weighting of Port. Yes, I support the Crows. But I live in Sydney and honestly have no crazy venomous hatred of them (at least that I'm aware of).
Just statistically they've played 3 games against current top 8 teams, and haven't won any of them: 0/3.
In terms of games vs teams in the 8 (as I write this): Crows are 3/3. GWS are 3/5. Cats are 2/2. WCE are 3/4. Tigers are 1/4. Dogs are 1/4.
Yet Port, which was valued mediocrely by Squiggle last year, is now expected to lose the GF.
Yes the top 8 changes, and there's probably heaps the Squiggle takes account of that nullifies the above stat, but just interested...
Click to expand...
Welcome to Bigfooty. I think Port's huge positive movement on the squiggle can be explained by how they have consistently outperformed the predicted scoreline (and have yet to have a big and/or unexpected loss resulting in a significant negative movement, unlike the sides mentioned above )
The Crows are highly rated too (but were even more highly rated ~3 weeks ago before the North loss\
 
heykrazi said:
So I created an account just to ask this, since the Squiggle is the only thread I read & only statistical analysis on footy I keep up with.
I'm intrigued by the favourable weighting of Port. Yes, I support the Crows. But I live in Sydney and honestly have no crazy venomous hatred of them (at least that I'm aware of).
Just statistically they've played 3 games against current top 8 teams, and haven't won any of them: 0/3.
In terms of games vs teams in the 8 (as I write this): Crows are 3/3. GWS are 3/5. Cats are 2/2. WCE are 3/4. Tigers are 1/4. Dogs are 1/4.
Yet Port, which was valued mediocrely by Squiggle last year, is now expected to lose the GF.
Yes the top 8 changes, and there's probably heaps the Squiggle takes account of that nullifies the above stat, but just interested...
Click to expand...
Basically it is because none of Port's 3 losses have been blowouts (and they generally performed better than expected by the Squiggle in those losses), while they have had some big wins that were not expected by the Squiggle.
 

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heykrazi said:
So I created an account just to ask this, since the Squiggle is the only thread I read & only statistical analysis on footy I keep up with.
I'm intrigued by the favourable weighting of Port. Yes, I support the Crows. But I live in Sydney and honestly have no crazy venomous hatred of them (at least that I'm aware of).
Just statistically they've played 3 games against current top 8 teams, and haven't won any of them: 0/3.
In terms of games vs teams in the 8 (as I write this): Crows are 3/3. GWS are 3/5. Cats are 2/2. WCE are 3/4. Tigers are 1/4. Dogs are 1/4.
Yet Port, which was valued mediocrely by Squiggle last year, is now expected to lose the GF.
Yes the top 8 changes, and there's probably heaps the Squiggle takes account of that nullifies the above stat, but just interested...
Click to expand...
I guess they're 1/4 now Freo are 5th? But one reason is that "the current top 8" probably isn't a really great measure of team strength. In the bottom 10, now, we have Sydney, North Melbourne, Collingwood, St Kilda, Melbourne, and maybe toss in Essendon too as a team that's a genuine finals threat and could replace current teams in the 8. So drawing a hard line after the top 8 and only counting those games is a little suspect... you throw away information from games like Port's win over Sydney in NSW, for example, while giving the Giants 1/1 credit for stealing one at home against the Tigers.

Another reason is that Squiggle really values it when teams beat up poor opposition. Humans tend to discount those results (games against witches hats), while highly valuing tight wins against top opponents. Squiggle is suspicious of the latter because there's pretty good evidence that the winner of very close contests is almost purely random.

So Port have lots of credit for 10+ goal wins over Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast and Fremantle. When a team does that to poor opposition, it almost always means they're actually a good team, not just good against bad teams.

And I guess the other part of the reason is that it's an even season. Adelaide and the Giants have each only dropped two games, but GWS could be outside the 8 right now if things hadn't gone their way, with their last 3 wins coming by a grand total of 7 points. And Adelaide's two losses have been not close-fought games but abject humiliations.

So Port look pretty decent.
 
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Final Siren said:
So Port look pretty decent.
Click to expand...

I hear ya.
But Squiggle has them better than decent. Squiggle has them losing a grand final.
I know that changes week to week, but yes they've won 1/4. They've lost every game they've played against a team above them. And their win vs a top 8 side is against a side the Squiggle doesn't even think will make the 8. Which is why having them 2nd seems odd - statistical formulae notwithstanding.

But thanks. Onto this weekend...
 
Anyone else getting bored of people whinging because their teams performance on the Squiggle has been questioned?

Legitimate question, to the average viewer Port are rated higher on the squiggle than their W-L record suggests. That's why the question has been asked.

And as always, fantastic, interesting answers from Final Siren that explains why you can't just go off a W-L record.
 
looking forward to the weekly review has become somewhat of an obsession. Even if I don't post I take a look here and on the site.

I think Freo out performed the predicted for once which was nice. Also 80+ points in bucketing rain is a good result even if not taken into account here.

On another note if we lose by less than 40 we will have done extremely well this week.
 
poshman said:
looking forward to the weekly review has become somewhat of an obsession. Even if I don't post I take a look here and on the site.

I think Freo out performed the predicted for once which was nice. Also 80+ points in bucketing rain is a good result even if not taken into account here.

On another note if we lose by less than 40 we will have done extremely well this week.
Click to expand...
I was surprised to see that Freo have climbed to 5th on the ladder. Percentage poor though
 
Gavin Excell said:
I was surprised to see that Freo have climbed to 5th on the ladder. Percentage poor though
Click to expand...

Perhaps more than any other season this century, I think the ladder this year is almost completely moot until the 4 or 5 weeks. Given that any of the top 10 teams can probably beat another top 10 team at least 20% of the time, I don't think anyone can really predict how this season is going to pan out until much later in the season when we can see how the final match ups might happen. I think match ups and the sheer luck of which team ends up opposite you in week 1 of the finals is going to be the biggest factor in ultimately deciding this seasons premier.

Given that, I think it's set to be a really tough year for the squiggle because it doesn't really account for specific match ups between two teams, or even between 18 sets of 2 players.
 

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nobbyiscool said:
I think match ups and the sheer luck of which team ends up opposite you in week 1 of the finals is going to be the biggest factor in ultimately deciding this seasons premier.
Click to expand...
This. The premiers will be the ones who turn up for their finals games, not the strongest team (because there is no strongest team this year!)
 

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Gavin Excell said:
They need constant reaffirmation that they are a good side
Click to expand...
Can you blame them? Longest grand final drought except for Richmond. We've all seen the mental toll it has had on Richmond, whilst the Crows supporters' mental breakdown has gone largely under the radar.
 
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
I can think of a 119 reasons why it could be worse. ;)
Click to expand...

Will be celebrated pre match on Thursday too. 10 year anniversary.

What's that! we're playing Port, salt in the wound :D
 

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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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