Racing Stakes Day 2018

[iluvparis]

I'm talking from a betting point of view.
I think Redzel is too short, give me $6-6.50 and I'll re consider

Yet you'd rather take a horse that has yet to win outside 3yo grade at the same price instead?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

There are many Kem fappers (see sig which you will soon join) but find it hard how any reasonable analyst could rate SAL above Redzel.

Answer me this though Paris, what if Redzel flops and Kem doesn't win but finishes in front of it, say places 2nd or 3rd
That still sig worthy?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Yet you'd rather take a horse that has yet to win outside 3yo grade at the same price instead?

Negative.
$8 odds boost

 

[iluvparis]

Answer me this though Paris, what if Redzel flops and Kem doesn't win but finishes in front of it, say places 2nd or 3rd
That still sig worthy?

Absolutely - as you seem happy to back a horse yet to win outside 3yo grade at the same price you would wait to back a 2-time G1 and 2 time Everest winner.

 

[iluvparis]

Negative.
$8 odds boost

You could have boosted Redzel - as i said - at the price you said you'd want to wait to back Redzel you are actually backing a horse that has yet to win in open company.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

You could have boosted Redzel - as i said - at the price you said you'd want to wait to back Redzel you are actually backing a horse that has yet to win in open company.

Lol you're not in politics are you? Always argue you're right ( or a distant relative of my wife)

No chance with boost SB give that

 

[Dominion]

Paris right about basically everything he's said ITT. Not hard when your two main points are "Redzel is overs" and "Winx would flog lol90s hacks" (because they are both obviously true). Still not backing Redzel tho, F that horse.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Winx would have lost at least 3 of her 29 in most other era's.

Winx is probably the best middle distance - stayer we've had in 50 years.


both of these can be true.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Redzel haters think about this:

Imagine Humidor wins a Winx-less Cox Plate by 1.5 lengths and then comes to this race and meets virtually the same field again. What price does he start? If you say $5 you are completely taking the piss.

Over his last 3 preps he is 7 from 11 for an SP return close to $30 with 2 of those defeats less than a length.

Even if you don't rate him (god knows why many don't) it is complete madness not to have something on him at this price.

i'd say around $5

bad comparison.

he's a horse that can't be less than $4 or more than $15 barring a Winx.




Redzel on the other hand you could price at $1.50 in a weak field and be confident backing it.

 

[HeathySure]

If you think the margin was entirely down to the track bias good luck to you.

you really dont listen do you

 

[mdizzle]

Redzel has been hammered into under $4, very happy with $6 boosted! Don't usually take multis but $13 for Redzel + Blair House SB Megabet was too good to resist, didn't last long

 

[FallingLiefs]

would be around the right price now.

 

[HeathySure]

Winx would have lost at least 3 of her 29 in most other era's.

Winx is probably the best middle distance - stayer we've had in 50 years.


both of these can be true.

They can be true, i never denied that. She will never prove that she is because she is not challenging herself. and i agree. In other eras she would have never had a streak of 29 but she would have won about 22 to 25 out of 30 which is still freakish. Black Caviar however would be undefeated in any era.

 

[HeathySure]

Paris right about basically everything he's said ITT. Not hard when your two main points are "Redzel is overs" and "Winx would flog lol90s hacks" (because they are both obviously true). Still not backing Redzel tho, F that horse.

How old are you? did you see those horses? did you see our horses dominating overseas races like the Japan Cup?

 

[FallingLiefs]

They can be true, i never denied that. She will never prove that she is because she is not challenging herself. and i agree. In other eras she would have never had a streak of 29 but she would have won about 22 to 25 out of 30 which is still freakish. Black Caviar however would be undefeated in any era.

I wouldn’t go that far, but BC is far more “bombproof”.

Winx does a lot wrong and is a testimate to how good she is that she wins when she cant ie vs Foxplay. Replace foxplay, trap for fools with Northerly or in that dist range black caviar she gets rolled being so negative or doing things wrong.

 

[HeathySure]

cos Dargento a well known leader
bet he never leads in any race ever again.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Re tomorrow

Look this is a whisper so keep under wraps but a form analyst i know reckons Ringerdingding ran on well last start and is one for tomorrow

Its gone unnoticed and slipped under everyones guard

 

[HeathySure]

I wouldn’t go that far, but BC is far more “bombproof”.

Winx does a lot wrong and is a testimate to how good she is that she wins when she cant ie vs Foxplay. Replace foxplay, trap for fools with Northerly or in that dist range black caviar she gets rolled being so negative or doing things wrong.

Just the way BC destroyed Hay list who won a Newmarket with 58.5 leads me to beleive she would not get beaten. She would sit of horses like Placid Ark and destroy them, Vain i never saw and he ran the times but i think she would do the same to him. Hareeba is the wild card. The only sprinter i have ever seen with the ability to match her ... but fickle. He needed everything his own way Like BC we never saw his best that he was capable of cos i truly believe he could run in the 1.5s for 1200 m down the straight with the right conditions but he was never fit and hated the rain. But i still think she is better. Have a look at the way she beat Buffering down the straight one carnival it was just ... breathtaking and Buffering would kill the sprinters now.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Just the way BC destroyed Hay list who won a Newmarket with 58.5 leads me to beleive she would not get beaten. She would sit of horses like Placid Ark and destroy them, Vain i never saw and he ran the times but i think she would do the same to him. Hareeba is the wild card. The only sprinter i have ever seen with the ability to match her ... but fickle. He needed everything his own way Like BC we never saw his best that he was capable of cos i truly believe he could run in the 1.5s for 1200 m down the straight with the right conditions but he was never fit and hated the rain. But i still think she is better. Have a look at the way she beat Buffering down the straight one carnival it was just ... breathtaking and Buffering would kill the sprinters now.

There was a period there about 2011-13 where the elite sprinting form was so pure.

In fact never seen anything like it before.

Essentially BC would win everything it contested and when it wasnt there, Hay List or Buffering would win

 

[juzza316]

Thread should be renamed Sooks Day 2018 based on the last couple of pages

 

[iluvparis]

Lol you're not in politics are you? Always argue you're right ( or a distant relative of my wife)

No chance with boost SB give that

Fine - you could have taken the Redzel/Blair House Double at $13 and layed off Blair House if Redzel won

 

[iluvparis]

i'd say around $5

bad comparison.

he's a horse that can't be less than $4 or more than $15 barring a Winx.




Redzel on the other hand you could price at $1.50 in a weak field and be confident backing it.

No chance Mr Contrarian - had a massive hype following and would be super short here under those circumstances. Started $3.70 in a BMW under similar circumstances even with a distance query

 

[iluvparis]

How old are you? did you see those horses? did you see our horses dominating overseas races like the Japan Cup?

Lol dominating - 1 horse falling in by a nose and a bunch of others getting beaten easily

 

[iluvparis]

Just the way BC destroyed Hay list who won a Newmarket with 58.5 leads me to beleive she would not get beaten. She would sit of horses like Placid Ark and destroy them, Vain i never saw and he ran the times but i think she would do the same to him. Hareeba is the wild card. The only sprinter i have ever seen with the ability to match her ... but fickle. He needed everything his own way Like BC we never saw his best that he was capable of cos i truly believe he could run in the 1.5s for 1200 m down the straight with the right conditions but he was never fit and hated the rain. But i still think she is better. Have a look at the way she beat Buffering down the straight one carnival it was just ... breathtaking and Buffering would kill the sprinters now.

God you are a hypocrite - Winx destroyed Hartnell and Happy Clapper repeatedly who won Doncasters and Epsoms as topweights

 

[AvantGardener]

Please point them out as if this is going to be of any relevance.

If you need help finding better 3yos than Happy Clapper and Kermadec what are you doing on a racing thread?

Better 3yos than Happy Clapper and Kermadec that could have raced against Winx:

Zoustar
Dissident
Wandjina
Brazen Beau
Shooting to Win
Sweynesse
Scissor Kick
Long John
Hallowed Crown
Exosphere
Astern
Capitalist
Star Turn
Flying Artie
Extreme Choice
Epaulette
Pierro
All Too Hard
Its a Dundeel
Vancouver
Press Statement
Complacement
Polanski
Savvy Nature lol

Balance of probabilities on what we know about some horses getting better with age some of these go on to diminish Winx record similar to a similar record to that of past legends.