Stats observations

[Ron The Bear]

Most defeats in a four-year period when 1.3+ years older than the opposition

32 Brisbane 1987-90
29 Brisbane 1988-91
28 Sydney 1988-91
27 Sydney 1987-90
21 Brisbane 1989-92
21 Hawthorn 2017-20
20 Carlton 2000-03

Bad News Bears
Buckenara/Barassi-era Swans
Carlton draft sanctions era

Not the company you want to be keeping.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

First time in my BigFooty tenure that posts are out of whack.

 

[North park]

Media release today from the Victorian Government states:

The MCG has hosted 115 VFL/AFL Grand Finals including Grand Final replays in 1948 and 2010.

Fairly certain there was a Grand Final replay in 1977 too. Obviously no-one in the media office at the Minister for Sport, AFL or MCC comes here to check their facts
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/deal-done-mcg-grand-final-contract-extension
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/deal-done-mcg-grand-final-contract-extension

 

[stemline]

Hawthorn have played Adelaide when Adelaide were last on the ladder 3 times, and lost all 3.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Most defeats in a four-year period when 1.3+ years older than the opposition

32 Brisbane 1987-90
29 Brisbane 1988-91
28 Sydney 1988-91
27 Sydney 1987-90
21 Brisbane 1989-92
21 Hawthorn 2017-20
20 Carlton 2000-03

Bad News Bears
Buckenara/Barassi-era Swans
Carlton draft sanctions era

Not the company you want to be keeping.

That's a very select & remote stat indeed, to try & paint us in the worst light possible.

 

[Ron The Bear]

That's a very select & remote stat indeed, to try & paint us in the worst light possible.

Been very noticeable that Hawthorn has been dropping games it would ordinarily expect to win since the Melbourne game in late 2016.

An average team wins 59.9% of games when 1.3 years older than the opposition; Hawthorn's recent record at +1.3 or greater is 38-15-23 (39%). Prior to this their record was 54-48-6 (89%), including a sequence of 20 wins. It's a minor miracle that Clarkson kept it afloat for as long as he did.

For the record, after plotting age differences against results (summarised below), the linear equation obtained for the older team's chance of winning is 49.68 + (7.85 x age difference in years). So a team that is exactly one year older than the opposition wins 49.68 + (7.85 x 1) = 57.53% of the time on average. This is useful as a benchmark for measuring a team's performance over time.

Age diff	Played	Won	Lost	Drawn	Win %
< 0.5	4930	2505	2380	45	51.27
0.5 - 1	4211	2328	1839	44	55.81
1 - 1.5	2935	1720	1182	33	59.17
1.5 - 2	1852	1175	658	19	63.96
2 - 2.5	1007	670	325	12	67.13
2.5 - 3	485	338	143	4	70.10
> 3	320	253	64	3	79.53

For the punters among you, backing the "overs" at level stakes (using the SP's at footywire.com) resulted in a 9% loss over the last decade, with losing streaks as long as 20. Results varied from a 0.1% loss for SP's of $2 and under, to a 43% loss for $10 and above. A slight profit was shown backing the overs when both teams were playing in their home state - games which appear to be more difficult for bookies to sort out.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Worst career records for premiership coaches entering Grand Final

Win %	Coach	Club	Year	P	W	L	D	%
32.14	Holden, George	Fitz	1916	14	4	9	1	86.49
50.83	Hardwick, Damien	Rich	2017	181	91	88	2	100.04
51.09	Clarkson, Alastair	Haw	2008	92	47	45	0	102.19
54.08	Thompson, Mark	Geel	2007	184	98	83	3	106.31
55.30	Smith, Norm W.	Melb	1955	132	71	57	4	107.65
56.52	Hardwick, Damien	Rich	2019	230	129	99	2	104.64
56.85	Sutton, Charlie	W.B.	1954	73	41	31	1	111.52
57.37	Malthouse, Mick	Coll	2010	638	363	269	6	109.10
57.46	Kennedy, John J.	Haw	1971	181	103	76	2	107.56
58.41	Matthews, Leigh	Coll	1990	113	65	46	2	108.16
58.77	Malthouse, Mick	W.C.	1992	211	122	85	4	108.74
59.20	Walls, Robert	Carl	1987	163	96	66	1	113.64
59.68	Blight, Malcolm	Adel	1997	186	111	75	0	119.06
59.76	Matthews, Leigh	Bris	2001	297	175	117	5	111.98
59.78	Jewell, Tony	Rich	1980	46	27	18	1	116.55
59.87	Smith, Norm W.	Melb	1956	152	89	59	4	111.54
59.91	Blight, Malcolm	Adel	1998	212	127	85	0	119.46

 

[X_box_X]

The total combined score of each of the past six matches have produced an even total. Or perhaps more simply, the winning margin of each of the past six matches have been an even margin.

This is a small sample size so not exactly remarkable, although the odds of this happening is 1/64.

My question is what the highest streak is of both even total scores and odd total scores.

 

[worbod]

Heath Shaw is now the third player to play 150 games for two clubs. He has played his 150th for GWS today after clocking up 173 for Collingwood. He joins Shaun Burgoyne (157 for Port, 230 for Hawthorn) and Bernie Quinlan (177 for Footscray, 189 for Fitzroy).
Roger Merrett played 149 for Essendon followed by 164 for Brisbane Bears.

 

[emuboy]

The Adelaide Crows will probably still claim the wooden spoon this year for the first time, but after looking like they might be the first team since Fitzroy in 1964 to go winless they have now won two in a row and North Melbourne might be getting slightly nervous that they will get their first wooden spoon since the Kangaroos had a 1-21 season in 1972.

It got me thinking, which are some of the more memorable cases of sides having really bad seasons that came good late and unexpectedly? Here are some I can think of - please post any others you know of.

Footscray 1980 - The Bulldogs were 0-11 and last at the midway point of 1980, 10 points and percentage behind Fitzroy and St. Kilda. In the second half of the season, the Bulldogs had a 5-6 record and narrowly avoided the wooden spoon with a 5-17 season.

Brisbane Bears 1989 - Brisbane were last after Round 15 with 3 wins and the worst percentage, but after Peter Knights was sacked following a hiding from Geelong the Bears won 5 of their last 7 matches under caretaker coach Paul Feltham (including a win over eventual premiers Hawthorn) to finish 10th with a respectable 8-14 record.

Fitzroy 1991 - The Lions tumultuous 1991 season was a strange one. Eight straight losses most of which were absolute thrashings to the end of Round 9 saw Fitzroy last with an average losing margin of 76 points. The Lions then upset Geelong and for the next 8 weeks were competitive without winning, pushing their opponents hard. The only side ironically to thrash them during these weeks was the Brisbane Bears at the GABBA, the Bears the Lions' opponents in the wooden spoon race. Fitzroy looked to have gone back to their old ways when Footscray belted them by 10 goals at the Western Oval in wet conditions in Round 19, but rebounded in amazing fashion, thrashing Richmond at the MCG by 59-points. The booing at half, three quarter and full time by angry Tiger fans was not directed at the Lions but rather the Tigers and coach Kevin Bartlett, the match a 'pink slip' game for the Richmond coach. The next week Fitzroy crashed to Hawthorn by 126-points in a match that could have been worse if the Hawks had kicked straight (28-27-195), then the Lions were up and about the next week, upsetting North Melbourne in a high scoring match by 1 point 22.16-148 to 21.21-147. A flat performance that resulted in a 46-point defeat to the Sydney Swans was the result in Round 23 at the SCG, before the Lions saved the best for last, upsetting the West Coast Eagles in a top vs. bottom match in Round 24, one of the biggest upsets of all time. This lifted the Lions off the bottom of the ladder and gave the wooden spoon to the Brisbane Bears, and dented the Eagles confidence, making them vulnerable to Hawthorn in the finals.

Hawthorn 1998 - The Hawks 1998 season was never going to be on the list of really bad seasons as they were mostly competitive, but regardless Hawthorn were last with 3 wins and 6 points clear in 16th after Round 17. From this point Hawthorn won their last 5 matches, all of them comfortably to easily avoid last spot, and this momentum seemed to carry forward into the 1999 pre season when the Hawks won the Ansett Cup.

Richmond 2010 - The Tigers looked assured of the wooden spoon after losing their first 9 matches, but improved mid-season to finish 6-16 with the West Coast Eagles finishing with the wooden spoon.

 

[35Daicos]

The Adelaide Crows will probably still claim the wooden spoon this year for the first time, but after looking like they might be the first team since Fitzroy in 1964 to go winless they have now won two in a row and North Melbourne might be getting slightly nervous that they will get their first wooden spoon since the Kangaroos had a 1-21 season in 1972.

It got me thinking, which are some of the more memorable cases of sides having really bad seasons that came good late and unexpectedly? Here are some I can think of - please post any others you know of.

Footscray 1980 - The Bulldogs were 0-11 and last at the midway point of 1980, 10 points and percentage behind Fitzroy and St. Kilda. In the second half of the season, the Bulldogs had a 5-6 record and narrowly avoided the wooden spoon with a 5-17 season.

Brisbane Bears 1989 - Brisbane were last after Round 15 with 3 wins and the worst percentage, but after Peter Knights was sacked following a hiding from Geelong the Bears won 5 of their last 7 matches under caretaker coach Paul Feltham (including a win over eventual premiers Hawthorn) to finish 10th with a respectable 8-14 record.

Fitzroy 1991 - The Lions tumultuous 1991 season was a strange one. Eight straight losses most of which were absolute thrashings to the end of Round 9 saw Fitzroy last with an average losing margin of 76 points. The Lions then upset Geelong and for the next 8 weeks were competitive without winning, pushing their opponents hard. The only side ironically to thrash them during these weeks was the Brisbane Bears at the GABBA, the Bears the Lions' opponents in the wooden spoon race. Fitzroy looked to have gone back to their old ways when Footscray belted them by 10 goals at the Western Oval in wet conditions in Round 19, but rebounded in amazing fashion, thrashing Richmond at the MCG by 59-points. The booing at half, three quarter and full time by angry Tiger fans was not directed at the Lions but rather the Tigers and coach Kevin Bartlett, the match a 'pink slip' game for the Richmond coach. The next week Fitzroy crashed to Hawthorn by 126-points in a match that could have been worse if the Hawks had kicked straight (28-27-195), then the Lions were up and about the next week, upsetting North Melbourne in a high scoring match by 1 point 22.16-148 to 21.21-147. A flat performance that resulted in a 46-point defeat to the Sydney Swans was the result in Round 23 at the SCG, before the Lions saved the best for last, upsetting the West Coast Eagles in a top vs. bottom match in Round 24, one of the biggest upsets of all time. This lifted the Lions off the bottom of the ladder and gave the wooden spoon to the Brisbane Bears, and dented the Eagles confidence, making them vulnerable to Hawthorn in the finals.

Hawthorn 1998 - The Hawks 1998 season was never going to be on the list of really bad seasons as they were mostly competitive, but regardless Hawthorn were last with 3 wins and 6 points clear in 16th after Round 17. From this point Hawthorn won their last 5 matches, all of them comfortably to easily avoid last spot, and this momentum seemed to carry forward into the 1999 pre season when the Hawks won the Ansett Cup.

Richmond 2010 - The Tigers looked assured of the wooden spoon after losing their first 9 matches, but improved mid-season to finish 6-16 with the West Coast Eagles finishing with the wooden spoon.

Fitzroy in 1916 is pretty hard to beat!! I think most people around here would be aware of that one, however!

 

[worbod]

It got me thinking, which are some of the more memorable cases of sides having really bad seasons that came good late and unexpectedly? Here are some I can think of - please post any others you know of.

Fitzroy in 1984 might also qualify. They were on the bottom for two rounds under the final five system. After round 9 they had one win but then began constructing some victories. In rounds 14, 15 and 16 they had three successive losses but made a late charge to win their last six games and finish fifth.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Re this theme - teams starting badly then coming good in 2nd half of year

Geelong of 1972 deserves a mention - the aarse had fallen right out of the side - lost the 1st 10 games of the season - round 11 they beat Nth Melb narrowly ( who had also lost their opening 10 games )

However in the final 10 games they beat 3 of the top 5 - Ess Rich and Coll . The interesting one is Rich - who played off in the GF ( got beaten ) but started a red hot fave - about $1.30 in todays money . And they beat Rich by 76 pts and at the MCG - i know it was only semi professional back then - but its hard to fathom that happening

Ending up finishing 10th of 12 with 7 wins

Another one is Hawthorn ( i cant be bothered looking it up ) but i remembered when it occurred - because it got quite a bit of press at the time - and they had a reasonable team - it was either late 60s or early 70s - Kennedy was their coach - and at a guess they lost their opening 7-8 games - theyd either get beat by under a goal - or kick badly - 20 pts or something - or something unlucky would happen to them - but they just couldnt crack it for a win

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I just looked that up re Hawthorn ( to proove to myself that i wasnt crazy hey - hah )

But it was 1970 ( and bear in mind they were premiers the following year - so they had a very good squad )

But the Hawks lost their opening 7 games - quite a few narrow defeats - and they were kicking big scores too

Here is their 1st 7 rounds

Geel 135 to 126
Melb 96 to 85
Coll 108 to 101
Ess 110 to 70
Foot 79 to 76
Rich 137 to 130
Stk 81 to 56

I can remember them interviewing Kennedy at the time and it was doing his head in - they just couldnt notch that 1st win - but ended winning 10 games for the year (22 game season)

 

[RedmanWasHere]

We're on track to witness the league's first season without a 100+ point margin since 1973.

 

[emuboy]

South Melbourne's 1973 team were another poor team that finished an abysmal season reasonably well. The Swans started with 13 consecutive losses, these following 16 straight losses to end South Melbourne's dismal 1972 season. However, after thrashing Geelong at the Lake Oval in Round 14 to end a run of 29 consecutive defeats (the longest losing streak post World War 2), the Swans picked up some more wins, their record in the last 9 matches a more respectable 4-5. It didn't save South from the 1973 wooden spoon however.

It's interesting that the Cats were the victims of the Swans drought breaking win. The early-mid 1970s were pretty dark for South Melbourne (last in 1971, 1973 and 1975, second last in 1972), but they gave Geelong nothing but trouble in this era and even when the Cats managed to beat them they were given a run for their money by the struggling Swans. South's 1972 team went 2-20 but one of their victories was at the expense of Geelong in the opening Round. There was the drought-breaking win in 1973, and in 1974 which was a much improved 9-12-1 season for South, the Swans beat the Cats by 1 point in one match, the Cats defeated the Swans by 1 point in the other. The year 1975 saw South Melbourne slip back to the bottom of the ladder with a 2-20 output. But who lost these matches to the lowly Swans? The Cats both times.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

South Melbourne's 1973 team were another poor team that finished an abysmal season reasonably well. The Swans started with 13 consecutive losses, these following 16 straight losses to end South Melbourne's dismal 1972 season. However, after thrashing Geelong at the Lake Oval in Round 14 to end a run of 29 consecutive defeats (the longest losing streak post World War 2), the Swans picked up some more wins, their record in the last 9 matches a more respectable 4-5. It didn't save South from the 1973 wooden spoon however.

It's interesting that the Cats were the victims of the Swans drought breaking win. The early-mid 1970s were pretty dark for South Melbourne (last in 1971, 1973 and 1975, second last in 1972), but they gave Geelong nothing but trouble in this era and even when the Cats managed to beat them they were given a run for their money by the struggling Swans. South's 1972 team went 2-20 but one of their victories was at the expense of Geelong in the opening Round. There was the drought-breaking win in 1973, and in 1974 which was a much improved 9-12-1 season for South, the Swans beat the Cats by 1 point in one match, the Cats defeated the Swans by 1 point in the other. The year 1975 saw South Melbourne slip back to the bottom of the ladder with a 2-20 output. But who lost these matches to the lowly Swans? The Cats both times.

That Sth Melb jinx with Geel you list re those eaely 70s game

There was another game between those clubs - a very important game - 2nd last round 1970 - Sth Melb ( under Norm Smith ) were having their best year in donkeys years

It was 4th versus 5th ( final 4 ) 2nd last round at KP - simple equation - whoever wins got the 4th spot

Very tight game Sth Melb ended up winning - but in the last qtr - there was a bizarre incident ( Doug Wade who was the kicker - and John Rantall who was the man on the mark - and Peter Bedford who was in the vicinity all confirmed it happened - so it must be true )

Wade who was a top FF - and a very reliable kick - in the last qtr he had a set shot for goal - and just before his boot made contact with the football - someone in the crowd ( must have been a Sth Melb supporter ) threw an apple - and the apple hit the ball - and as a result Wade made poor contact - and missed the goal

 

[emuboy]

That Sth Melb jinx with Geel you list re those eaely 70s game

There was another game between those clubs - a very important game - 2nd last round 1970 - Sth Melb ( under Norm Smith ) were having their best year in donkeys years

It was 4th versus 5th ( final 4 ) 2nd last round at KP - simple equation - whoever wins got the 4th spot

Very tight game Sth Melb ended up winning - but in the last qtr - there was a bizarre incident ( Doug Wade who was the kicker - and John Rantall who was the man on the mark - and Peter Bedford who was in the vicinity all confirmed it happened - so it must be true )

Wade who was a top FF - and a very reliable kick - in the last qtr he had a set shot for goal - and just before his boot made contact with the football - someone in the crowd ( must have been a Sth Melb supporter ) threw an apple - and the apple hit the ball - and as a result Wade made poor contact - and missed the goal

That South Melbourne fan who threw the apple must have had incredible aim to hit the football from that distance. I wonder if he or she played cricket or baseball at a high level?

 

[wagstaff]

After tonight's game, Richmond's Jack Graham has entered into 9th spot of the all-time VFL/AFL win percentages of those players who've played at least 50 games - 81%.

Should be noted that this is based on the calculation AFL Tables makes of counting a draw as a half (actually presumed draws would be counted as a loss).

 

[wagstaff]

It's interesting that the Cats were the victims of the Swans drought breaking win. The early-mid 1970s were pretty dark for South Melbourne (last in 1971, 1973 and 1975, second last in 1972), but they gave Geelong nothing but trouble in this era and even when the Cats managed to beat them they were given a run for their money by the struggling Swans. South's 1972 team went 2-20 but one of their victories was at the expense of Geelong in the opening Round. There was the drought-breaking win in 1973, and in 1974 which was a much improved 9-12-1 season for South, the Swans beat the Cats by 1 point in one match, the Cats defeated the Swans by 1 point in the other. The year 1975 saw South Melbourne slip back to the bottom of the ladder with a 2-20 output. But who lost these matches to the lowly Swans? The Cats both times.

Similar dynamic occurred between Richmond & Footscray in that era.

From 1969 to 1975 Richmond finished above the Bulldogs on the ladder - usually comfortably - but the win/loss record between the two sides in that period was 7 wins each.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Should be noted that this is based on the calculation AFL Tables makes of counting a draw as a half (actually presumed draws would be counted as a loss).

It's an interesting discussion point but given you get two premiership points for a draw, I'm comfortable with it.

Graham's equal 52nd at 50 games (Selwood 50-46-0 at the top).

 

[theyellowsash]

Cant remember where i saw it to quote it, but apparently richmond have become the first team to win a game on every day of the week, although are also the first team to play on every day of the week.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Cant remember where i saw it to quote it, but apparently richmond have become the first team to win a game on every day of the week, although are also the first team to play on every day of the week.

Club	First played every day		Club	First won every day
Rich	1980 R5		Rich	1980 R5
Fitz	1980 R5		Ess	1981 R14
Carl	1980 R9		Coll	1985 R1
Ess	1980 R9		Syd	1986 R5
Geel	1980 R12		Fitz	1987 R3
St.K	1980 R16		Melb	1987 EF
Melb	1981 R6		Haw	2015 R12
Syd	1983 R19		Geel	2020 R10
Coll	1985 R1		Carl	missing Wed
Haw	1989 R4		St.K	Wed
Adel	2020 R11		N.M.	Tue
Frem	2020 R15		W.B.	Tue
Bris	2020 R16		W.C.	Wed
N.M.	missing Tue		Bris	Mon, Tue
W.B.	Tue		Adel	Wed
W.C.	Wed		Frem	Wed
P.A.	Tue, Wed		P.A.	Tue, Wed
G.C.	Tue		G.C.	all except Sat & Sun
GWS	Mon, Wed		GWS	Mon, Tue, Wed
Univ	all except Sat & Mon		Univ	all except Sat

 

[worbod]

Simon Goodwin has now set a new record. He has the highest combined-games total without being involved in a draw.

Name	Player	Coach	Total
Simon Goodwin	275	86	361
John Blakey	359	1	360
Matthew Pavlich	353	0	353
Andrew McLeod	340	0	340
Tyson Edwards	321	0	321
Glenn Archer	311	0	311
Scott Thompson	308	0	308
Ken Hinkley	132	175	307

The next highest total with a significant amount of games coached is 269 by Joe Kelly (137 as a player, 132 as a coach).

 

[emuboy]

While with all competitions that are running this year the 2020 WAFL season can't be measured to the same standards as other seasons, three very long droughts ended today:

1. The Perth Demons will play finals for the first time since 1997, an absence of an astonishing 23 years.
2. West Perth and Perth will play in the same finals series for the first time since 1978.
3. West Perth and Perth will play each other in the first semi final, the first finals meeting between the two since 1976.

These longest droughts now are:

1. Finals - East Fremantle, with no finals for the Sharks since 2014
2. Same Finals Series - Perth has not played in the same finals series as Subiaco or Swan Districts since 1991. This was also true of Claremont, but the Tigers are playing finals this year, the Lions and Swans are not.
3. Finals Meeting - Perth and East Fremantle have not met in a final since the Demons' demolition of the Sharks in the 1977 Grand Final.