I guess yesterday's 30.8 (188) by the Eagles equals the record (first set in this match) of least behinds by a side who's kicked 30+ goals in a match?
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Stats questions
- Thread starter red+black
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- Jul 15, 2007
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Yes, but how much would the travel and short break contribute to the odd making, so to speak? It's a bit chicken and egg isn't it, or am I missing something?
I guess you could compare teams that travel on 7 day break vs 7+ day break teams without travel and how that statistically compares with travelling team on 6 day break vs 7+ without travel and that might yield a more meaningful stat.
I've never been convinced the 6 day break in itself is that much of a factor, but I suspect it is when combined with travel. It effectively takes an extra day out of an already short week and, all else being equal (which it clearly isn't), I'd be interested to know if the w-l record, particularly in the last 10-15 years where fitness is such an issue, backs that up.
BTW, thanks for the reply.
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http://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/gamer.html#14
And I'm guessing 42.13 is the most accurate scoring for a 40 goal match.
39.10 was scored by Essendon and Adelaide in 2009.
from what I can tell the bookies aren't making any adjustments due to the shorter breaks.
7 day break for teams who travel vs 7+ since 2004
124-208-3 (37.01% Win rate)
at the betting line 158-177
8 day break for teams who travel vs 7+ since 2004
69-128-2 (34.67% win rate)
91-108 at the line
so as you can see the 6 day break actually has a better winning record than 7 and 8 day breaks, possibly this is due to every day that week counting towards the game, no rest days (I assume)
Ross Lyon has had a poor 6 day record while at Fremantle, he is 8-9 in all 6 day break games and 6-11 at the betting line.
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- Jul 15, 2007
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The bookies probably wont make adjustments, but the natural tendency of punters might. That's what I'm thinking anyway - again I might miss understand what you're implying by using the betting line. You might have to educate me a bit more.
Interesting thing about Lyon though. Smaller sample of course, but there's probably something in that as well.
Also, related to Lyon's personal record, the Perth based teams have to travel a lot (obviously) and the impact on 6 day breaks with travel against teams with 7+ breaks would be interesting compared to the rest of the comp.
betting line
eg tonights game Carlton are -19.5 & Saints are +19.5
for you to win the line Carlton need to win by 20+ points, or for Saints to win it they need to either win the game or keep it within 19pts.
so when I say betting line record it is for those teams on the 6 day break and whatever line they have whether they beat it or not.
eg tonights game Carlton are -19.5 & Saints are +19.5
for you to win the line Carlton need to win by 20+ points, or for Saints to win it they need to either win the game or keep it within 19pts.
so when I say betting line record it is for those teams on the 6 day break and whatever line they have whether they beat it or not.
- Mar 25, 2003
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Ron The Bear there is talk about the Eagles being flat track bullies so I'm wondering if you could post each teams win % v teams ranked higher than them on the ladder, and win % v teams ranked lower than them on the ladder over the 2011-14 period.
DivideAndMultiply did the eagles which looks like
2011 : 1-2 against sides above us, 16-3 against sides below us
2012 : 2-1 against sides above us, 13-3 against sides below us (seems that 3 games are missing here...)
2013 : 4-12 against sides above us, 5-1 against sides below us
2014 : 0-3 against sides above us, 4-1 against sides below us (I've allowed for Freo to jump above us)
Overall: 7-18 v higher teams (28%), 38-8 v lower teams (82%) - 292% better record against teams below us than above us.
looks like the metric was home and away games only, and for 2014 i guess ranking teams currently by their MR.
DivideAndMultiply did the eagles which looks like
2011 : 1-2 against sides above us, 16-3 against sides below us
2012 : 2-1 against sides above us, 13-3 against sides below us (seems that 3 games are missing here...)
2013 : 4-12 against sides above us, 5-1 against sides below us
2014 : 0-3 against sides above us, 4-1 against sides below us (I've allowed for Freo to jump above us)
Overall: 7-18 v higher teams (28%), 38-8 v lower teams (82%) - 292% better record against teams below us than above us.
looks like the metric was home and away games only, and for 2014 i guess ranking teams currently by their MR.
These figures take "higher" and "lower" from the clubs' positions on the ladder at the end of the H&A season (2011-13). For 2014, they are taken from ladder positions after Round 8.
v teams below them on the ladder:
\Ad|40|31|9|-|78
\Br|20|17|3|-|85
\Ca|43|31|11|1|73
\Co|60|49|11|-|82
\Es|36|26|10|-|72
\Fr|43|34|8|1|80
\Ge|58|49|9|-|84
\GC|15|12|3|-|80
\GWS|1|1|-|-|100
\Ha|71|60|11|-|85
\Me|11|9|2|-|82
\NM|37|26|11|-|70
\PA|28|19|9|-|68
\Ri|33|24|8|1|74
\St|32|25|6|1|80
\Sy|57|43|13|1|76
\WC|47|38|9|-|81
\WB|20|17|3|-|85
\Ad|33|6|27|-|18
\Br|54|8|46|-|15
\Ca|31|8|23|-|26
\Co|13|6|7|-|46
\Es|38|14|23|1|38
\Fr|31|9|22|-|29
\Ge|15|9|6|-|60
\GC|58|7|51|-|12
\GWS|51|4|47|-|8
\Ha|3|-|3|-|0
\Me|63|7|55|1|12
\NM|36|12|24|-|33
\PA|46|8|37|1|18
\Ri|40|11|28|1|29
\St|42|7|35|-|17
\Sy|17|5|11|1|32
\WC|27|7|20|-|26
\WB|54|8|46|-|15
You hear the clubs often say that a 6-day break is not a factor until you get a few of them in a row, then the last one can become a factor. e.g. Hawthorn's 6 day break before the Sydney game was its 3rd in succession (plus bonus travel factor). Dunno if that was why they couldn't match Sydney's intensity for much of the game, but it wouldn't have helped.
- Mar 25, 2003
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Cheers mate, perfect. Legend.
Least aggregate behinds with 40 goals:
40.12 West Coast vs Brisbane round 18 2012 (76.92% accuracy)
42.13 West Coast vs GWS round 8 2014 (76.36%)
44.14 Essendon vs Melbourne round 4 1985 (75.86%)
The Eagles and Giants provided the highest aggregate score from 55 scoring shots http://www.users.on.net/~rogersresults/Rogers_Results/home.htm#match5
- Jul 15, 2007
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Yeah, I think 6 day breaks in close proximity (even though may mean bigger breaks around them) might have a statistical significance to it. My team, freo, have had more 6 day breaks in a short period of time than I can remember to start the season, but with so many variables involved (e.g. playing basically all the in form teams) it would be hard to draw a statistical correlation of sorts that could isolate to what extent it's a factor.
Would still be interested in the Perth based teams 6 day and travel vs 7+ day record compared to the rest of the comp - baring the odd derby weekend etc., nearly all the West Coast/Fremantle 6 day breaks involve significant travel (either back or two the next game). I would interested to see if there's any statistical significance in illustrating how this might impact things.
Could get very complicated but here are the number of 6 day gaps between home and away matches 2012 to round 8 2014.
Hawthorn 19
Nth Melbourne 18
Geelong 17
West Coast 17
Fremantle 16
St Kilda 16
Sydney 15
West. Bulldogs 15
Carlton 14
Adelaide 13
Port Adelaide 13
Richmond 13
GWS Giants 12
Collingwood 11
Essendon 11
Melbourne 11
Brisbane 9
Gold Coast 8
Average for the period including byes is 7.4 days. (Fremantle 7.6 days, West Coast 7.4 days, Gold Coast 7.5 days.)
In the end its most likely what Ross Lyon said about winning against whoever, wherever, and whenever. (Teams playing well do.)
- Jul 15, 2007
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Yeah, absolutely - which is why drawing meaningful statistics that can highlight impact of 6 day break is really very difficult.
In the end, good teams playing well will overcome all sorts of difficulties more often than not, pretty simple really. No coach/player in the land would want 6 day breaks with travel against teams that don't have to travel and have the extra day - but the good teams find ways to overcome this sort of thing often enough so it doesn't 'statistically' bear out in any significance.
I get a 1-7 record for teams with 3 six day breaks in a row since 2003, now I just added this formula to find the extra days break so it could be wrong, looks right though.
SJ
Premium Platinum
But on its own that means nothing until you factor in all the other elements which no doubt have a far greater significance on the results.
that is true, the sample is way too small aswell, however for four of those games where the team with the back to back to back 6 day break has been the favourite for the match they have lost all 4 by an average of 27pts. been outscored 20.5 top 32.25 in final quarters.
there are no other of these this year and due to the scheduling we are lucky to see one each season.
people with databases that go back further than mine (03) can you get results for teams on back to back to back 6 day breaks who are higher placed on the ladder than their opponents?
there are no other of these this year and due to the scheduling we are lucky to see one each season.
people with databases that go back further than mine (03) can you get results for teams on back to back to back 6 day breaks who are higher placed on the ladder than their opponents?
- Feb 5, 2011
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In Pavs media conference this week he said that travel and 6 day breaks had become less of a problem because of the advances in sports science and recovery.
This week Hawthorn v Port Adelaide will be the third 1 v 2 match this year (Geelong Hawthorn Round 5, Port Adelaide Geelong Round 6). This would seem quite unique on the surface, maybe more common than I think.
Wonder if there's any way we can work it out.
And possibly a 4th in Round 13 Sydney v Port Adelaide?
Wonder if there's any way we can work it out.
And possibly a 4th in Round 13 Sydney v Port Adelaide?
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There were five in 2010 and five in 1917 (only six teams competing.)
There have been four in eight seasons (last in 2002) and three in 26 seasons (last in 2011)
PTizzle
Brownlow Medallist
Given Tom Mitchell's game on the weekend, can anyone else remember some similarly insane individual efforts in the lower leagues?
Andrew Carrazzo had over 50 disposals in a VFL game. Orren Stephenson had 60 hit outs.
Haydn Bunton Jnr was said to have had 88 kicks in a 1962 game for Swan Districts.
Tony Free, who scored 46 goals in 133 senior games, kicked 14 in a game for Richmond U19s.
Austin Robertson Jnr needed 14 goals in the final round of the 1968 WAFL season to beat Bernie Naylor's H&A season record of 156. He had 31 kicks and booted 15.11.
Also, Darren Bennett (when at the Eagles) was coming back from injury in 1988 and instead of playing for East Fremantle's seniors, laced up the boots for East Freo's reserves side. He kicked 22.0 with his only blemish being a snap out of bounds on the full with his last kick of the day.
Here's a link to some high possession tallies as posted on Footypedia
http://footypedia.yuku.com/topic/423/Most-Dispossals
http://footypedia.yuku.com/topic/423/Most-Dispossals
