Analysis Stats that Matter

AstuteTiger · Jun 5, 2022

Second quarters have been Richmond’s strength in the first half of the 2022 season.

The Tigers have won nine of their 11 second terms, outscoring opponents by a combined total of 103 points in those games – 49.23 (317) to 30.34 (214).

It’s a different story, however, when you look at Richmond’s last quarters this year, with five wins from the 11 games.

The opposition has outscored the Tigers by 41 points overall in final terms – 41.29 (275) to 34.30 (234).

Third quarters have been good, with eight wins, while the score-line in opening terms is seven wins and four losses.

Richmond’s overall best quarter so far this season is the 7.4 (46) it scored in the final term against West Coast 4.1 (25), Round 7, Optus Stadium.

Mid-season quarter-by-quarter analysis

Second quarters have been Richmond’s strength in the first half of the 2022 season.

www.richmondfc.com.au

MatterOfStats 2022 : Team Dashboard for Round 11 — Matter of Stats

The Ranking on Dashboard Metrics data appears below and shows that every team in the Top 8 on the ladder is in the bottom 8 on at least one metric, and in the bottom 6 on at least one metric for all but one of the teams. Ranking on Scoring Shot Conversion and Q2 performances are, relatively speakin

www.matterofstats.com

DoItForCaptBlood · Jun 5, 2022

Remember when we used to absolutely demolish teams with pressure in the last. It got the point by 2020 where if we were behind or just in front at 3/4 time, I'd be very relaxed knowing we would romp home.
The situation now with poor final quarters is no doubt being looked at. If we make finals though, we won't get past week 1 unless it is rectified. Won't perhaps even make finals if we don't at least go 2/2 on the next 4 games.

AstuteTiger · Jun 6, 2022

DoItForCaptBlood said:
Remember when we used to absolutely demolish teams with pressure in the last. It got the point by 2020 where if we were behind or just in front at 3/4 time, I'd be very relaxed knowing we would romp home.
The situation now with poor final quarters is no doubt being looked at. If we make finals though, we won't get past week 1 unless it is rectified. Won't perhaps even make finals if we don't at least go 2/2 on the next 4 games.

Agree! I do however think we are still a good show for a top 4 berth if we keep up our form and eradicate the undisciplined acts which have literally cost us 2 wins, RD 1 V Blues and RD 11 Swans.

In the Saints game we just had too much talent out (Jack, Prestia, Dusty, Vlustuin, Lambert) and lost Grimes late in the 3rd but still were 25 up late in the 3rd.

Our run home is quite good, I don't want to look too far but the two upcoming games both on Thursday nights V Port and V Blues, in all honesty, we should beat them both. Port on our home deck, we are playing well on the G moving the ball fast and generating high scores (2nd highest of all teams).

Blues without Mckay, Weitering, Pittonet, McGovern and Zac Williams are similar to us in several games this year, having key players out. Starts testing your depth.
We on the other hand should be at full strength for the Blues game with Lynch and Lambert both likely to be available. This I say if we do not sustain any further injuries V Port.

Lsta062 · Jun 6, 2022

We definitely have been underperforming IMO. Our best is up there IMO, but as we can see, our last quarters and our team defence is letting us down.

Not very difficult to fix though IMO. We just need to have all our defenders play at once and consistently (we’ve been like a revolving door in defence with the likes of Grimes, Gibcus, Balta, and Vlastuin missing time at various stages). With our last quarters, the issue is mental and with our belief. Hardwick needs to instil composure in our players and hopefully the easier back half will do that.

I’m pretty optimistic on the second half of the season right now

tiger_tough · Jun 6, 2022

That just shows our best is good enough, just need to work on the fades outs.

Football Tragic · Jun 6, 2022

I think strong second quarters are off the back of the coaches being able to breakdown what the opposition are doing at the start of the game plus a rejuvenated strong list of experienced players. The last quarter fade outs is because of a tiring group of older players and younger depth players. I'd imagine that this variance reduces as the year goes on.

I'm like you though, I have high hopes for the second half of the year. We seem relatively injury free and have reinvigorated our game plan. Just need Lynch and Balta back

Tiger_Of_Old · Jun 6, 2022

DoItForCaptBlood said:
Remember when we used to absolutely demolish teams with pressure in the last. It got the point by 2020 where if we were behind or just in front at 3/4 time, I'd be very relaxed knowing we would romp home.
The situation now with poor final quarters is no doubt being looked at. If we make finals though, we won't get past week 1 unless it is rectified. Won't perhaps even make finals if we don't at least go 2/2 on the next 4 games.

Losing someone like Inness hurt.
Look how Sydney are going in the last qtrs.

AstuteTiger · Jun 6, 2022

RICHMOND

Record: 6 wins, 5 losses
Ladder position: 9th

What’s working: After an inconsistent start, the Tigers posted four straight wins before falling short at the SCG in round 11. Daniel Rioli has embraced his role at half-back, Jayden Short is having a career year, Shai Bolton has had moments of brilliance, Maurice Rioli has provided energy as a small forward, while co-captain Toby Nankervis has been a physical presence. They rank second for points per game (98.1), third for goals and scores per inside-50, and fifth for scores from turnover, the latter a good sign of their pressure-led, premiership

DNA. The Tigers rank No.1 for scoring from kick-ins, highlighting why they are so dangerous when able to will the ball forward.

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What’s not: Coach Damien Hardwick has bemoaned his team’s ill-discipline, conceding too many free kicks. Key forward Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt have been wayward in front of goal. Injuries have hurt, while Dustin Martin’s absence for seven rounds – to grieve his father’s death, with the blessing of the club – left the Tigers without their lone genuine superstar. Martin’s return corresponded with an on-field lift. Former Kangaroo Robbie Tarrant is still finding his way in a new system. They need to tighten defensively through the midfield, having conceded a score from 45.7 per cent of opposition forward-50 entries.

Surprise packet: The Tigers took Josh Gibcus with the ninth pick in last year’s national draft for a reason – but the key defender has exceeded expectations. The former Greater Western Victoria Rebel has played nine games, and been handed tough assignments, none more so than Lance Franklin.

The run home: The Tigers have been hard to decipher for only one of their six wins – against the Western Bulldogs – has been against a top-eight side. They are a genuine finals contender but will need to make the most of their remaining fixture – they face only four of the current top-eight teams – to secure the double chance. –

Jon Pierik

Mid-season report: Blues’ testing run home, Saints’ surprise, where Tigers can improve

SavDog23 · Jun 6, 2022

The only stat that matters in this sport now is the free kick count

Noidnadroj · Jun 6, 2022

DoItForCaptBlood said:
Remember when we used to absolutely demolish teams with pressure in the last. It got the point by 2020 where if we were behind or just in front at 3/4 time, I'd be very relaxed knowing we would romp home.
The situation now with poor final quarters is no doubt being looked at. If we make finals though, we won't get past week 1 unless it is rectified. Won't perhaps even make finals if we don't at least go 2/2 on the next 4 games.

I recall a stat in the latter part of 2020 which showed Richmond had lost 1 of the last 53 games when leading at 3/4 time. Obviously in a lot of
those we were up by plenty, but I also recall going into every game thinking ‘as long as we are thereabouts at 3/4 time we will win’…. and more often than not close margins late in the third or early in the 4th ended up being 6-goal wins.

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Maurice Mitchell · Jun 6, 2022

DoItForCaptBlood said:
Remember when we used to absolutely demolish teams with pressure in the last. It got the point by 2020 where if we were behind or just in front at 3/4 time, I'd be very relaxed knowing we would romp home.
The situation now with poor final quarters is no doubt being looked at. If we make finals though, we won't get past week 1 unless it is rectified. Won't perhaps even make finals if we don't at least go 2/2 on the next 4 games.

Lsta062 said:
With our last quarters, the issue is mental and with our belief. Hardwick needs to instil composure in our players and hopefully the easier back half will do that.

Problem is, we’ve now given our opponents plenty of motivation. They know not to give up because we will fade.

You could see that in the Hawthorn game: we got out to a six goal lead in the last quarter and then they scored four in a row.

We’d have to be about eight goals in front at three quarter time for the opposition to think they’re out of it.

Bojangles17 · Jun 6, 2022

We’ve Won second most Qtrs this year and are the second highest scoring team , we re doing a heck of a lot right , need to tweak a bit and we can get crackin in the biz end of the year

AstuteTiger · Jun 6, 2022

The Tigers are back in the finals mix after a concerning 2-4 start, but Hardwick said they were left feeling “sour” after coughing up a five-goal lead, and a potential fifth win on the trot, in losing to the Swans.

Those mid-match lapses were a recurring theme of Richmond’s opening half to the season.

“If you had have said to me, after the start we had, that we’d be 6-5 at the break, I’d be OK with it but wouldn’t be happy with it,” he said.

“A lot of our KPI indicators – time in front, quarters won – all those sorts of things are up in the top four, we just haven’t got the result. We’ve had some really, really bad quarters in games.

“It’s cost us probably three to four games, in theory. Other sides will point to similar things. We’re doing a lot of things right, but unfortunately, when things aren’t going well for us, we’re getting scored against too heavily.

“We did a bit of work on that over the course of the break and hopefully we start to reap the benefits of that knowledge and work that we put in, over the back-end of the year.”

AstuteTiger · Jun 22, 2022

Dynasty not over yet: The signs 'Tiger Time' is upon us again

All the key Richmond indicators suggest the Tigers are primed for another premiership tilt

In three important categories central to Hardwick and Richmond's recent premiership success – territory, scoring and defence – the Tigers have dominated the competition over the past two months.

In each of 2017, 2019 and 2020, Richmond ranked top four in the League for territory indicators including inside-50 differential, time in forward-half differential and the underrated stat of handball metres gained. From round seven onwards, the Tigers rank No.2 for inside-50 differential (+14.1), No.1 for time in forward-half differential (+11.57 minutes) and No.1 for handball metres gained (390.8m).

*TERRITORY*	2017	2019	2020	Rd 7-14, 2022
Inside-50 diff.	#4	#3	#2	#2
Time in fwd-half diff.	#3	#4	#1	#1
Handball metres gained	#1	#1	#1	#1

In each of its three premiership seasons, Richmond has also ranked top five in the AFL for scoring indicators including scores from turnover differential, forward-half possession gains and scores from forward-half possession gains. In their past eight matches, the Tigers rank No.1 in all three categories.

They also rank No.1 for points scored in that same time period (104.7 points per game) and No.5 for scores per inside-50 entry (44.4 per cent), significantly improved numbers even when compared with their trio of premiership seasons.

*SCORING*	2017	2019	2020	Rd 7-14, 2022
Scores from turnover diff.	#5	#2	#1	#1
Fwd-half possession gain	#2	#3	#2	#1
Scores from fwd-half possession gain	#5	#2	#5	#1

Then there's crucial defensive indicators including intercept marks and scores against per inside-50 entry, in which Richmond ranked top three in the League in two of three premiership seasons. This year, in its past eight games, it ranks No.2 for intercept marks (18.4) and No.6 for scores against per inside-50 entry (40.6 per cent).

*DEFENCE*	2017	2019	2020	Rd 7-14, 2022
Intercept marks	#3	#7	#2	#2
Scores against per inside-50 %	#1	#2	#6	#6

But there are also areas of Richmond's game, which weren't necessarily a strength of the Tigers throughout their recent premiership campaigns, that have drastically improved during the current season and in the past eight weeks in particular.

Not a proven ball-winning team – particularly in 2019 when the side ranked bottom four in the League for disposal differential, contested possession differential and clearance differential – Richmond has grown considerably in those areas throughout this year.

Led by Dion Prestia, since round seven the Tigers have ranked No.5 in the AFL for disposal differential (+14.4), No.6 for contested possession differential (+5.9), No.6 for uncontested possession differential (+7.9) and No.5 for clearance differential (+3.0). Never has that been more important than in their last game, when they overwhelmed the Blues' star-studded midfield on their way to another victory.

Dynasty not over yet: The signs 'Tiger Time' is upon us again

All the key Richmond indicators suggest the Tigers are primed for another premiership tilt

www.afl.com.au

Mr Unbelievable · Jun 22, 2022

You can smell the fear

SunshineBoy · Jun 22, 2022

The only stat that matters is the scoreboard at the end of the game everything else is gruel for the betting companies

TigerImposter · Jun 23, 2022

AstuteTiger said:
The Tigers are back in the finals mix after a concerning 2-4 start, but Hardwick said they were left feeling “sour” after coughing up a five-goal lead, and a potential fifth win on the trot, in losing to the Swans.

Those mid-match lapses were a recurring theme of Richmond’s opening half to the season.

“If you had have said to me, after the start we had, that we’d be 6-5 at the break, I’d be OK with it but wouldn’t be happy with it,” he said.

“A lot of our KPI indicators – time in front, quarters won – all those sorts of things are up in the top four, we just haven’t got the result. We’ve had some really, really bad quarters in games.

“It’s cost us probably three to four games, in theory. Other sides will point to similar things. We’re doing a lot of things right, but unfortunately, when things aren’t going well for us, we’re getting scored against too heavily.

“We did a bit of work on that over the course of the break and hopefully we start to reap the benefits of that knowledge and work that we put in, over the back-end of the year.”

Yes we could have easily been on top of the ladder, but poor selection, umpires, an ageing list, injuries at wrong time and undiscipline have cost us those close games.

Livonski · Jun 23, 2022

TigerImposter said:
Yes we could have easily been on top of the ladder, but poor selection, umpires, an ageing list, injuries at wrong time and undiscipline have cost us those close games.

Lol. Apart from all that…

SunshineBoy · Jun 23, 2022

Livonski said:
Lol. Apart from all that…

That pesky scoreboard at the end of the game

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