Swan vs Judd 2011

[doppleganger]

So if they gather the ball the same amount of times but Swan gets it away more often, then that tells me that Judd is getting the ball far more often in traffic.

It tells me that Judd has a high number of contested possessions that mean nothing as he is immediately tackled.....who cares if Judd gets 15 contested possessions if 5 of them mean nothing??

Do you happen to have first touch statistics there?

Yep....Judd and Boyd the 1 & 2....avg 8.5 and 8.4 per game.

Difference being that Boyd avg 8.1 clearances, whilst Judd only 6.7...ie Boyd gets the pill and can clear the pack........Judd gets the pill and nothing happens.

The elite midfielders have 1st possession and clearance rates close to 1-1...

Swan, Ablett, Mitchell with the surprise being Cothcin who has the best ratio of them all....no surprise that Cotchin looking like the next boom mid.

Plenty of times Judd gets the ball at a stoppage and tries to hand ball it through a cluster of players. A lot of the time it ends up in another stoppage.

Exactly....boosts his contested possessions stats, but impact on game is mininal.

Since you are intent on turning this into a pissing contest, any clue at all how many times Swan will get double or triple teamed at stoppages compared to Judd.

Im not turning it into a p1ssing contest, Im pointing out how to use stats properly...ur use of contested possession compared to total disposals (which you termed possession) was silly.

Judd is an inside bloke who has little outside hurt factor....he is like L.Ball or Priddis....not the same as Ablett and Swan.

I'm trying to make a case for them being largely different types of midfielders, while you just want to promote Swan over Judd.

You're using stats that you dont understand to try and paint a misleading picture that makes Judd look good.

Im pointing out you dont know what the stats mean, let alone know how to interpret them.

Judd is the best of the inside mids with limited outside hurt....ie L.Ball, Priddis, Cassissi, J.Kennedy.

Swan is one of the elite all round mids, similar game to Ablett

 

[The Spaniel]

"Little outside hurt factor?", "Judd gets the pill and nothing happens?"

You just need to watch a game to understand that you're dead wrong.

But, if you reckon stats are the be all and end all, he's in the top two in the whole league for goal assists, how can you possibly justify your comments when this is staring in your face?

"Swan is one of the elite all round mids"

Of the top 32 disposal getters, only one has less tackles that Swan and that's Grant Birchall. Swan has had 62 tackles, Judd has had 134 (more than double).... i kinda reckon that "all around mids" should be reasonable tacklers...

 

[The Spaniel]

good post spaniel!

 

[the distributer]

"Little outside hurt factor?", "Judd gets the pill and nothing happens?"

You just need to watch a game to understand that you're dead wrong.

But, if you reckon stats are the be all and end all, he's in the top two in the whole league for goal assists, how can you possibly justify your comments when this is staring in your face?

"Swan is one of the elite all round mids"

Of the top 32 disposal getters, only one has less tackles that Swan and that's Grant Birchall. Swan has had 62 tackles, Judd has had 134 (more than double).... i kinda reckon that "all around mids" should be reasonable tacklers...

They should kick more than 13 goals in a season too.

 

[Monkey King]

Possessions and Disposals are different.

Judd and Swan have very similar numbers in terms of overall possessions, yet Swan has 70 more disposals.....ever thought to ask yourself why??

Judd gets 'credited' with numerous 'contested possessions' in scrum type situations where he is immediately tackled and does not dispose and a ball up results, looks good on a stats sheet if you don't know the difference between possession and disposal....but impact on game is zilch.

Well then, how utterly anomalous that Judd's CP & UP totals always add up to his disposal count. Perhaps you've missed something. Still, it's no mystery that Judd works more in the closed spaces of packs and has far more close attention paid to him in those situations. Do you have Swan and Judd's 1st possession and more importantly, metres gained from 1st possession figures?

As for the bolded claim of having no impact, I'd say go pull on the boots yourself and see what a bloke like this does for your team. Your claim is that a guy who either wins it or kills it at the contest a large percentage of the time has no impact? Pretty much goes against my footy experience. Guys who contest the ball and limit the oppositions winning of the ball in contested situations, have the type of impact left unrecorded on stats sheets. Judd's tackle count is probably another way of statistically understanding his impact in this sense.

Swan's kick to handball ratio is 1.71
Judd's kick to handball ratio is 0.88

Even though Judd handall's more than he kicks....he still is a poor user of the ball in comparison to Swan!

I'd say no. Swan has plenty more time to kick it because he's not deep in the packs like Judd is. You think that equals more impact, I quite happily disagree. Getting the ball out to the runner is probably more important than being the runner. Judd has the occasional WTF moment with his disposal, but he also has amazingly creative and sublime moments as well. People focus on what they choose, according to their bent.

Swan has had 50% more kicks for the year than Judd....yet Judd has the same number of clangers!!

If you do a clanger handball your must be struggling!!

Firstly clangers are not confined to disposal errors; don't misunderstand the stat. Frees Against are clangers, as can be dropped marks or a mishandled ball. Taking out frees against to get closer to a figure that represents disposal clangers and Swan goes quite well ahead. Does anyone have the more relevant turnover numbers?

If you watch games you can easily see why Judd might clanger the odd handballs. Sometimes I'm amazed how he even gets them away, certain situations would find most other players wrapped up in a tackle, feigning attempts at punching the ball away.

 

[The Spaniel]

Admittedly its not a lot of goals, but again, i think his assists are a good indication of his attacking presence.

You seem to have admitted that Swan is not an all around mid pretty quickly.
The way i see it:

Defensively: Judd great, Swan horrible.
Offensively: Judd very good, Swan great.
In dispute: Judd great, Swan very good

now who do you think is the most 'all round mid' of the two given that Swan has barely any defensive presence?

 

[the distributer]

Admittedly its not a lot of goals, but again, i think his assists are a good indication of his attacking presence.

You seem to have admitted that Swan is not an all around mid pretty quickly.
The way i see it:

Defensively: Judd great, Swan horrible.
Offensively: Judd very good, Swan great.
In dispute: Judd great, Swan very good

now who do you think is the most 'all round mid' of the two given that Swan has barely any defensive presence?

Swan does more around the ground to, better runner, more inside 50s, more rebound 50s, they are different types though, both superb footballers.

 

[doppleganger]

Well then, how utterly anomalous that Judd's CP & UP totals always add up to his disposal count. Perhaps you've missed something.

??

Judd and Swan both have total possession counts in the mid 600s, Swan 665 and Judd 658. Judd a greater ratio of contested possessions, which is what the Carlton bloke was fapping about.

Swan has 7 more overall possessions, yet has 80 more disposals than Judd.

That means that a higher proportion of Judd's possessions are null and void as he doesn't dispose of the ball.

Still, it's no mystery that Judd works more in the closed spaces of packs and has far more close attention paid to him in those situations. Do you have Swan and Judd's 1st possession and more importantly, metres gained from 1st possession figures?

I already listed 1st possesion per game, Judd is second best in the league...

As I said Judd is a similar player to L.Ball, Priddis, Cassisis....and inside workhorse who doesn't hurt much outside.

As for the bolded claim of having no impact, I'd say go pull on the boots yourself and see what a bloke like this does for your team. Your claim is that a guy who either wins it or kills it at the contest a large percentage of the time has no impact? Pretty much goes against my footy experience. Guys who contest the ball and limit the oppositions winning of the ball in contested situations, have the type of impact left unrecorded on stats sheets. Judd's tackle count is probably another way of statistically understanding his impact in this sense.

Again, you dont get it....who would a Carlton fan want bursting away from a pack....M.Murphy or Gibbs....M.Murphy is Carlton's equivalent of Swan.

L.Ball and Judd do the inside grunt work, but you dont really want them with the pill outside of the packs.

The bolded comment is crap, people fap over tackles and contested possession numbers without even knowing what they mean.

 

[Monkey King]

They should kick more than 13 goals in a season too.

Your comment lacks substance. Out of the top 10 disposal getters, Judd sits 5th for goals, equal 2nd for points and No.1 for goal assists. His impact on the scoreboard in among the best in the league. The only thing I'd ask for improvement on is accuracy.

 

[The Spaniel]

doppleganger, i've already discussed how wrong you are with this "doesn't hurt much outside" crap.

 

[the distributer]

Your comment lacks substance. Out of the top 10 disposal getters, Judd sits 5th for goals, equal 2nd for points and No.1 for goal assists. His impact on the scoreboard in among the best in the league. The only thing I'd ask for improvement on is accuracy.

GAs 'can' be misleading as well, if the player given the ball misses it becomes a scoring assist, not trying to prove anything by saying that, just sayin.

 

[The Spaniel]

distrubuter, yeh both guns.
But you'd think with more inside 50s, added on to his 'superior disposal', and the fact that he gets more time in space, that Swan's goals contributed would be so much higher than Judd's. something must be amiss in doppelganger's idea that judd doesn't hurt as much as swan...

 

[the distributer]

distrubuter, yeh both guns.
But you'd think with more inside 50s, added on to his 'superior disposal', and the fact that he gets more time in space, that Swan's goals contributed would be so much higher than Judd's. something must be amiss in doppelganger's idea that judd doesn't hurt as much as swan...

Not when Clokes kicking the goals lol, we also use the boundry more making it harder for GAs, reckon the scoring assists would be a bit closer.

 

[the distributer]

Your comment lacks substance. Out of the top 10 disposal getters, Judd sits 5th for goals, equal 2nd for points and No.1 for goal assists. His impact on the scoreboard in among the best in the league. The only thing I'd ask for improvement on is accuracy.

Has 1 more GA than Swan yet has kicked less than half the goals, Swan has played a bit up Fwd this year though.

 

[___ccroo___]

Judd by so much it isn't even funny.

C Judd.

 

[Monkey King]

Judd and Swan both have total possession counts in the mid 600s, Swan 665 and Judd 658. Judd a greater ratio of contested possessions, which is what the Carlton bloke was fapping about.

Please cite your stats. If it's Prostats, forgive my ignoring them.

According to Champion Data ...

Judd
Contested and Uncontested Possessions - 564
Disposals - 573

A far cry from your no point getting 15 possessions if only 5 of them mount to something fantasy.

I already listed 1st possesion per game, Judd is second best in the league...

Actually, I said more importantly metres gained from 1st possession. Gives a fair indication as to the impact the player has once he's won the ball. Last year Judd and Swan were neck and neck for this stat. I'd imagine much less so this year, but can't find it.

As I said Judd is a similar player to L.Ball, Priddis, Cassisis....and inside workhorse who doesn't hurt much outside.

Having watched Judd all year, I can't help but immediately realise this is nothing but trash talk. His goal assist numbers immediately flag the bullshit, as does the fact he is what, No.1 in the league for metres gained nearly every week and how opposition coaches constantly work at limiting this part of his game? Given your claim counters general observation and stats, you're really going to have to provide some kind of evidence to support this beyond narrative.

Again, you dont get it....who would a Carlton fan want bursting away from a pack....M.Murphy or Gibbs....M.Murphy is Carlton's equivalent of Swan.

L.Ball and Judd do the inside grunt work, but you dont really want them with the pill outside of the packs.

I'd take Gibbs, Murphy or Judd bursting away from a pack; probably this year Murphy gains slight preference. All do it pretty well though.

I think Judd being so dominant on the inside has you stuck in the realm of flawed player comparisons. Very happy to see Judd with the pill outside the pack; why wouldn't I be? He's just about the best metres gained player in the comp. In fact, I'm wondering here what the hell you're talking about. It's almost like reading fiction.

The bolded comment is crap, people fap over tackles and contested possession numbers without even knowing what they mean.

Yes mate, it's all crap Won't bother with this other to say PULL ON THE BOOTS, go play with a guy like this and then try telling your teammates the bloke has no impact. They'll shake their heads at you much like I am now.

 

[Monkey King]

... people fap over tackles and contested possession numbers without even knowing what they mean.

Just having a look at Champion Data's definition for Contested Possession ...

"credited to a player who wins the ball from a disputed situation"

So apparently you really do need to win the ball, not simply take possession and be immediately tackled. This is supported by the actual stats being spoken about, that show total possession counts basically equaling total disposals.

I think more than anyone else in this thread, you've misread what certain statistics mean, especially when trying to extrapolate actual onfield impact.

 

[Monkey King]

GAs 'can' be misleading as well, if the player given the ball misses it becomes a scoring assist, not trying to prove anything by saying that, just sayin.

I'm glad you weren't, but I do actually agree with you. Hardly a players fault if the guy they kick it to fluffs the kick.

Still, Judd sits atop the table with 49, with a greater gap between him and second than he enjoys for Goal Assists. Anyone who claims he doesn't have an impact outside the packs is a dill.

 

[NAUGHT5]

Judd's definitely been better this year. Maybe Swan will win the Brownlow then.

 

[the distributer]

I'm glad you weren't, but I do actually agree with you. Hardly a players fault if the guy they kick it to fluffs the kick.

Still, Judd sits atop the table with 49, with a greater gap between him and second than he enjoys for Goal Assists. Anyone who claims he doesn't have an impact outside the packs is a dill.

Yepp.

 

[doppleganger]

Just having a look at Champion Data's definition for Contested Possession ...

"credited to a player who wins the ball from a disputed situation"

So apparently you really do need to win the ball, not simply take possession and be immediately tackled. This is supported by the actual stats being spoken about, that show total possession counts basically equaling total disposals.

I think more than anyone else in this thread, you've misread what certain statistics mean, especially when trying to extrapolate actual onfield impact.

I know exactly how stats are defined, and yes I was using pro-stats numbers for 1st possessions and contested - uncontested possessions.

Champion Data defines a contested possession as a statistic ''credited to a player who wins the ball from a disputed situation''. There is nothing about disposing of the ball.

A player's contested possession tally is the sum of his hard-ball gets, loose-ball gets, contested marks, free kicks for, gathers from hitouts and contested knock-ons.

Most people think a contested possession is simply a hard ball get.

 

[doppleganger]

Please cite your stats. If it's Prostats, forgive my ignoring them.

According to Champion Data ...

Judd
Contested and Uncontested Possessions - 564
Disposals - 573

A far cry from your no point getting 15 possessions if only 5 of them mount to something fantasy.

So according to Champion Data Judd has had 9 kicks off the ground....

And champion place absolutely no value on winning a ball in a pack and then being tackled!

Actually, I said more importantly metres gained from 1st possession. Gives a fair indication as to the impact the player has once he's won the ball. Last year Judd and Swan were neck and neck for this stat. I'd imagine much less so this year, but can't find it.

Metres gained by Judd? Or by the disposal chain he instigates with his handball??

No.1 in the league for metres gained nearly every week and how opposition coaches constantly work at limiting this part of his game? Given your claim counters general observation and stats, you're really going to have to provide some kind of evidence to support this beyond narrative.

Where are these metres gained stats??

Im not basing anything on metres gained, just that Judd is an inside mid.

I think Judd being so dominant on the inside has you stuck in the realm of flawed player comparisons. Very happy to see Judd with the pill outside the pack; why wouldn't I be? He's just about the best metres gained player in the comp. In fact, I'm wondering here what the hell you're talking about. It's almost like reading fiction.

Again, metres gained....you keep spruiking it, but where are the numbers?

I have watched Judd, he wastes more ball than other mids when out in the open....just like people question Boyd, Priddis, Ball etc Judd is the same type of player.

 

[loki04]

Marc Murphy is actually the player in Carlton side that plays a similar role to Swan, Judd and Swans games are completely different.

As for the poll Id have Judd for the 1st half of the year and Swan for the 2nd half, overall Judd for the season just.

 

[Monkey King]

I know exactly how stats are defined, and yes I was using pro-stats numbers for 1st possessions and contested - uncontested possessions.

I strongly suspect you don't, based on some of your comments.

As I said, I will ignore prostats if you don't mind. The contested possessions I was talking about were Champion Data defined anyway and they certainly don't seem to be recorded how you've suggested.

Champion Data defines a contested possession as a statistic ''credited to a player who wins the ball from a disputed situation''. There is nothing about disposing of the ball.

So, use your brain then. According to Champion Data you must WIN a ball in dispute. Being wrapped up in a tackle doesn't sound much like winning the ball to me, as the ball remains very much in dispute. I've provided total possession and disposal stats that support this interpretation, while contradicting the points you've tried to make. Why ignore them?

Can I assume you've simply given up on your claims that Judd has no impact outside the pack? Your lack of response to points like total metres gained has been noted.

 

[The Octopus]

Take away Carlton supporters, Collingwood supporters and HodgePodge and you are left with everyone else saying Judd.
Judd by a bit.