Swan vs Judd 2011

[Monkey King]

If we're talking stats Betts had clearly the better game with 19 disposals, 7 tackles, 4 goals, 2 clearances (only two less than Judd).

And yet 15mins before the game ended it wasn't even remotely the case. So let me ask you, are you now seriously questioning why Judd could reasonably be considered to have performed better in the match?

No, they were 7th before the game, and a poor side, which is the key point in the discussion of Judd's goal assists against poor sides.

Uh-uh. Go check it out here. They were 6th. You claimed Judd only had 5 GA's against top 8 sides. Pretty damn obviously you were wrong; you choosing to admit it or not doesn't really change anything.

So Judd's 7 goal assists there is consistent with the observation that he has filled his boots against weak opposition.

Nah. It's just your way of talking down a player. I can do the same thing with Rioli, who excluding Essendon, has kicked only 2 of 26 goals against top 8 teams This crap however, is probably best left to you.

 

[Hodgepodge]

And yet 15mins before the game ended it wasn't even remotely the case. So let me ask you, are you now seriously questioning why Judd could reasonably be considered to have performed better in the match?

Not at all, you could make an argument for Judd being better than Betts or Kade Simpson if you wanted to, and vice versa. But once you quoted stats I had to answer that statistically Betts was the better performed player.

Uh-uh. Go check it out here. They were 6th.

No, they were 6th at the end of the previous round, but 7th before the Carlton game in Round 18.

Your You claimed Judd only had 5 GA's against top 8 sides. Pretty damn obviously you were wrong; you choosing to admit it or not doesn't really change anything.

The claim is that his average is owed to dominating against poor sides, which is reflected in the stats. Essendon were a poor side at the time and while I appreciate that it can technically be claimed the 7 GAs were against a Top 8 side, it doesn't contradict the initial claim that almost all his goal assists are against poor sides.

Rioli's spread of goal assists is more even and consistent, against all kinds of opponents, therefore while he is only 'a touch ahead' in the stats, he is far ahead as an assist player.

Nah. It's just your way of talking down a player. I can do the same thing with Rioli, who excluding Essendon, has kicked only 2 of 26 goals against top 8 teams

Again, this falls more in the category of pedanticism. A brief look at the stats will show that Rioli has only played 3 top 8 teams since becoming a forward (not including Essendon) and has kicked 6 in those three games, including a game where he was subbed out. That's a 2 goal average, which is better than his season average.

 

[Monkey King]

Not at all, you could make an argument for Judd being better than Betts or Kade Simpson if you wanted to, and vice versa. But once you quoted stats I had to answer that statistically Betts was the better performed player.

Yes. The bolded is my only point and it is supported statistically with Judd being game high or nigh-off in various statistical fields. Whether you judge Betts to have had the superior game matters fails to impacts the point. As I've said, I'm not here to make unequivocal statements about who was and wasn't best; only that Fasta's hysteria over Judd polling votes doesn't hold much logic.

No, they were 6th at the end of the previous round, but 7th before the Carlton game in Round 18.

No point wanking around is there. At the start of round 18 Essendon were in 6th place. Fact! Even if they were 7th, how does that make your claim about Judd vs top 8 teams any less bogus? It doesn't. You can keep arguing the point, but I'm not responding any further. You were wrong, deal with it.

Again, this falls more in the category of pedanticism.

Yes it does mate, yes it does. As I said, I'll leave all the talk-down stuff to you.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Yes. The bolded is my only point and it is supported statistically with Judd being game high or nigh-off in various statistical fields.

Cool, we agree that Judd was arguably 3rd best on ground in the game against Fremantle.

No point wanking around is there. At the start of round 18 Essendon were in 6th place. Fact! Even if they were 7th, how does that make your claim about Judd vs top 8 teams any less bogus? It doesn't. You can keep arguing the point, but I'm not responding any further. You were wrong, deal with it.

Yes, they were 7th before the Carlton game as I stated. Technically the stat against Top 8 teams is or isn't correct, depending on whether you take the ladder position at the start or end of the game. The point however is that Judd's GA stat is owed to performances against poor teams, and the stats support that.

Yes it does mate, yes it does. As I said, I'll leave all the talk-down stuff to you.

It's not about talking down a player, it's just when making this particular stat comparison, Judd's glaring GA stat distribution has to be taken into account. While Judd is 'a hair off' Rioli in goal assist numbers, he's way behind in terms of performances against top sides, which makes Rioli the superior assist player.

Same with say, Andrew Walker and Jack Riewoldt, for example. Walker doesn't perform against the better sides, and while his average is somewhat comparable to Riewoldt's, he's nowhere near the goalkicker.

 

[Monkey King]

Cool, we agree that Judd was arguably 3rd best on ground in the game against Fremantle.

Sure we do, which places him right in the "not unexpected" box for the two votes.

Yes, they were 7th before the Carlton game as I stated. Technically the stat against Top 8 teams is or isn't correct, depending on whether you take the ladder position at the start or end of the game.

LOL well Judd didn't register a single assist after the game did he Einstein

It's not about talking down a player ...

That's exactly what it's about. You talk about making comparisons, but you're just stat removing on flimsy grounds. For starters, you're comparing a mid to a forward. Rioli should be more consistent. For all you know, Judd rests more often forward against poorer opposition and hence has more assists in those games. Wouldn't make Rioli the better goal assister you're aiming for.

Like I said. I'll leave you to your MO.

 

[Monkey King]

Meanwhile, back on topic, a couple of threads currently going about the Top 50 players for 2011 and Best player of 2011. Judd's name everywhere, Swan's name barely sighted.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Judd has 300 contested possessions out of 573 possessions
Swan has 253 contested possessions out of 640 possessions.

Judd is decidedly more inside than Swan. Judd gets smashed on these boards for his efficiency which is a mere 3% less than Swan despite being more inside than Swan.

1%ers - Judd 33, Swan 18

Goal Assists Judd 32, Swan 22. Guess Judd gives more away so is entitled to kick less.

Clangers 61 apiece. Not a lot to be gained there for the Judd detractors.

More of the same from HP, need something to do - pot Judd, rinse, lather, repeat. Does not care for the actual subject matter, just how much damage can be done.

How depressing.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Sure we do, which places him right in the "not unexpected" box for the two votes.

Nothing's unexpected in terms of Brownlow votes, but Sandilands and Barlow clearly the best two on the ground that night.

LOL well Judd didn't register a single assist after the game did he Einstein

Whichever way you look at it, Essendon were a poor team in Round 18, and a bottom 8 team at the end of the round.

That's exactly what it's about. You talk about making comparisons, but you're just stat removing on flimsy grounds. For starters, you're comparing a mid to a forward.

Sure, but I didn't seek the comparison, just responding to Judd leading the assists to mention that Rioli is leading the average assists while Judd has pumped up his stats against poor teams, both of which I've shown.

Rioli should be more consistent. For all you know, Judd rests more often forward against poorer opposition and hence has more assists in those games. Wouldn't make Rioli the better goal assister you're aiming for.

Resting in the forwardline would suggest more gametime% and there is nothing to indicate that. Regardless of the reason however, the uneven goal assist distribution has to be considered in the comparison.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Judd has 300 contested possessions out of 573 possessions
Swan has 253 contested possessions out of 640 possessions.

True, but overall Judd averages maybe 1 or 2 more contested than Swan. A bit of that can be attributed to Swan's poor start.

Judd is decidedly more inside than Swan. Judd gets smashed on these boards for his efficiency which is a mere 3% less than Swan despite being more inside than Swan.

There's no 'efficiency' stat, so I'm assuming you're referring to DE%.

Not sure how being inside affects DE%. From what I understand, any disposal less than 40 metres than doesn't hit a target is not effective, but a kick over 40 metres that doesn't hit a target can be considered effective as long as it doesn't resulted in an uncontested possession to the opposing side. This doesn't apply to contested possessions that are clearances, which are automatically seen as effective.

1%ers - Judd 33, Swan 18

Nice stat, and clearly in favour of Judd, although Swan has a game or two in hand.

Goal Assists Judd 32, Swan 22. Guess Judd gives more away so is entitled to kick less.

5 of Judd's 32 goal assists against poor teams. 6 of Swan's 22 against poor teams, so Swan with the better distribution.

Also Swan with more goals contributed (goals+goal assists)

Clangers 61 apiece. Not a lot to be gained there for the Judd detractors.

Swan with 70 odd more possessions though, to be fair. Also Judd has more free kicks against which are registered as clangers, so Swan probably with more disposal clangers.

From a non stat standpoint, Swan doesn't get tagged out of games, while Judd has been beaten a few times this year. Swan had a couple of quiet ones by his standards when he was playing injured before the break to Arizona.

Thanks for bringing it back on topic, more of this please.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

True, but overall Judd averages maybe 1 or 2 more contested than Swan. A bit of that can be attributed to Swan's poor start.

Wait, you don't exactly allow for circumstances when pointing out Judd's poor games, so how on earth does a 'slow start' excuse you?

You point out that Swan has more disposals, then surely Judd should not be comfortably in front in contested possessions (yes 47 is a fairly comfortable lead). 52.4% contested possessions to Judd. 39.5% to Swan. That's a decent gap.

There's no 'efficiency' stat, so I'm assuming you're referring to DE%.

Not sure how being inside affects DE%. From what I understand, any disposal less than 40 metres than doesn't hit a target is not effective, but a kick over 40 metres that doesn't hit a target can be considered effective as long as it doesn't resulted in an uncontested possession to the opposing side. This doesn't apply to contested possessions that are clearances, which are automatically seen as effective.

However you class an effective disposal, the fact is that Judd does 13% more contested work than Swan and is 3% less effective. You can paint it any which way, but generally the more contested midfielders have a lower efficiency percentage since they are in more contests and potentially disposing of the ball under more pressure.

Nice stat, and clearly in favour of Judd, although Swan has a game or two in hand.

1 game. It's almost double.

5 of Judd's 32 goal assists against poor teams. 6 of Swan's 22 against poor teams, so Swan with the better distribution.

I don't get you here. So Judd has 27 goal assists against stronger sides and Swan has 16 and Swan has a better 'distribution'? Huh?

Also Swan with more goals contributed (goals+goal assists)

Yes, but that link you provided gave the goal averages. Goal assists only serves to elevate Judd a bit more.

Swan with 70 odd more possessions though, to be fair. Also Judd has more free kicks against which are registered as clangers, so Swan probably with more disposal clangers.

And Swan has the one less game. Again, there is a possibility that the more contested player would be expected to make more clangers.

From a non stat standpoint, Swan doesn't get tagged out of games, while Judd has been beaten a few times this year. Swan had a couple of quiet ones by his standards when he was playing injured before the break to Arizona.

I've never see Swan have 2-3 players blocking and scragging him at a stoppage though. If he isn't inside quite as much, he can't be tagged out of it as easily. Again, you have made an excuse for Swan being injured and having a couple of quiet ones, but do not speculate as to whether Judd has been at full fitness in all games.

 

[the distributer]

Judd has 300 contested possessions out of 573 possessions
Swan has 253 contested possessions out of 640 possessions.

Judd is decidedly more inside than Swan. Judd gets smashed on these boards for his efficiency which is a mere 3% less than Swan despite being more inside than Swan.

1%ers - Judd 33, Swan 18

Goal Assists Judd 32, Swan 22. Guess Judd gives more away so is entitled to kick less.

Clangers 61 apiece. Not a lot to be gained there for the Judd detractors.

More of the same from HP, need something to do - pot Judd, rinse, lather, repeat. Does not care for the actual subject matter, just how much damage can be done.

How depressing.

Why don't you mention goals kicked?, swan has 30 to judds 13 (and Swan has missed 3 games), Swan is averaging more clearances, more inside 50s, more rebound 50s, more possessions.

 

[Monkey King]

Nothing's unexpected in terms of Brownlow votes, but Sandilands and Barlow clearly the best two on the ground that night.

We're just going around in circles now. Rucks rarely poll as well as mids and it's fair to say Judd was the second best mid on the night. No strangeness at all in him getting 2 Brownlow votes. Fasta's outrage is quite misplaced.

Whichever way you look at it, Essendon were a poor team in Round 18, and a bottom 8 team at the end of the round.

Rarara. 13 GA's out of 32 against top 8 teams. For a mid, Judd's goal assists suggest he has reasonable impact with his disposal. That was the point being made by the Carlton poster you engaged.

By the end of the year, everyone has played against those same poor teams and has the same opportunity to "exaggerate" their impact in this way. No point now cutting and pasting stats around now.

That you've got to compare Judd to a forward with renowned creativity in a bid to find better goal assists speaks for itself.

Resting in the forwardline would suggest more gametime% and there is nothing to indicate that.

Your assumption is flawed. Judd generally has 85% game time regardless of how much time he spends up forward. The are always variables in statistics, you can't just assume them away.

 

[Monkey King]

Why don't you mention goals kicked? He did. Read again. Swan is averaging more clearances No he is not. LINK , more inside 50s 0.7 p/game and?, more rebound 50s 0.2 p/game more possessions as ODN already wrote

I won't speak for ODN, but the way I read his post was that the statistics were quoted to support his point that Judd is more inside and is unfairly maligned for his disposal. Read it again mate. Not sure what you were trying to achieve with this post of yours. It's not a pissing contest.

 

[the distributer]

I won't speak for ODN, but the way I read his post was that the statistics were quoted to support his point that Judd is more inside and is unfairly maligned for his disposal. Read it again mate. Not sure what you were trying to achieve with this post of yours. It's not a pissing contest.

Isn't it?

 

[the distributer]

I won't speak for ODN, but the way I read his post was that the statistics were quoted to support his point that Judd is more inside and is unfairly maligned for his disposal. Read it again mate. Not sure what you were trying to achieve with this post of yours. It's not a pissing contest.

Funny way to add stats don't you think? for starters, Swan has more total clearances, has played less games but Judd has more clearances on average according to your link http://www.afl.com.au/stats/tabid/7...11&roundid=0&fixtureid=0&teamid=0&playerids=0 sorry mate, might need some help with that one.

Sorry mate, was looking at the wrong line.

 

[Hump 17]

You can't argue with people that don't understand football but only look at stats the next day to judge them. The distributer is this person.

 

[Squida25]

One more stat I forgot earlier in the thread

Tackles per game
Judd - 6.4
Swan - 3.1

also lol distributer

 

[the distributer]

You can't argue with people that don't understand football but only look at stats the next day to judge them. The distributer is this person.

Say what? i like to watch games with no sound and make my own mind up mate

Hey, you catch footy classified last night? they were talking about how Goddard has become the man no one plays on lol, i'll send you a link if you like, guess their wrong too though eh?

 

[Hump 17]

Say what? i like to watch games with no sound and make my own mind up mate

Hey, you catch footy classified last night? they were talking about how Goddard has become the man no one plays on lol, i'll send you a link if you like, guess their wrong too though eh?

What now he's untaggable is he? Caro is a genius.

 

[the distributer]

What now he's untaggable is he? Caro is a genius.

Nah mate, not Carro, Thomas said it, Goddard had his best game for the year, 31 disposals, 0 goals, 0 goal assists, 4 clearances, 6 inside 50s, 0 contested marks playing as a mid, wasn't tagged at all, Swan would be dissapointed with those stats, still think Goddard's a better player than Swan? lol.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Why don't you mention goals kicked?, swan has 30 to judds 13 (and Swan has missed 3 games), Swan is averaging more clearances, more inside 50s, more rebound 50s, more possessions.

I didn't mention goals because the OP's link has all the basic stats like possessions and goals but not the stats that paint a different picture. Given the OP makes it his mission to undersell Judd at every opportunity, some balance was needed.

By the way Swan has missed 1 game. Judd didn't play during the byes either. Judd is ahead in clearances.

I50s and R50s were fairly close and they only say where you were when you disposed of the ball, and do not point to an inside or outside game. They are more a guide of how much running a player does if they can get a balance between the two. Swan has 107 I50s and 37 R50s. He is mostly forward of the ball and his goal tally bears this out. Judd has 98 I50s and 26 R50s and his goal assists bear this out. Having said that, as we have established that Judd is generally in and under a little more, the chances of him clearing a ball with a longer kick are lesser.

I am trying to paint the picture that the roles are quite different.

In fact, Murphy is a better comparison to Swan this year. Murph is slightly behind in a few averages but then he is slightly more efficient with the ball. Probably closer to Swan than Judd is in terms of player type.

 

[Hump 17]

Nah mate, not Carro, Thomas said it, Goddard had his best game for the year, 31 disposals, 0 goals, 0 goal assists, 4 clearances, 6 inside 50s, 0 contested marks playing as a mid, wasn't tagged at all, Swan would be dissapointed with those stats, still think Goddard's a better player than Swan? lol.

Best game according to who? According to you he can't play mid field but yet gets 31 without the kick to kick stat fillers Swan gets.

 

[doppleganger]

Judd has 300 contested possessions out of 573 possessions
Swan has 253 contested possessions out of 640 possessions.

Judd has had 573 disposals.....not 573 possession.

Possessions and Disposals are different.

Judd and Swan have very similar numbers in terms of overall possessions, yet Swan has 70 more disposals.....ever thought to ask yourself why??

Judd gets 'credited' with numerous 'contested possessions' in scrum type situations where he is immediately tackled and does not dispose and a ball up results, looks good on a stats sheet if you don't know the difference between possession and disposal....but impact on game is zilch.

Judd gets smashed on these boards for his efficiency which is a mere 3% less than Swan despite being more inside than Swan.

Swan is the only player in the league to have had more than 400 kicks this year....Judd has only had 269 kicks.

Swan's kick to handball ratio is 1.71
Judd's kick to handball ratio is 0.88

Even though Judd handall's more than he kicks....he still is a poor user of the ball in comparison to Swan!

Goal Assists Judd 32, Swan 22. Guess Judd gives more away so is entitled to kick less.

Swan has kicked 30 goals compared to Judd's 13....so overall Swan hurts more on the scoreboard (in less games mind you too.)

Clangers 61 apiece. Not a lot to be gained there for the Judd detractors.

???

Swan has had 50% more kicks for the year than Judd....yet Judd has the same number of clangers!!

If you do a clanger handball your must be struggling!!

Judd's game is burrowing in, getting the ball and being tackled...when in the open he butcher's the ball much more than the other 'elite' mids.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

So if they gather the ball the same amount of times but Swan gets it away more often, then that tells me that Judd is getting the ball far more often in traffic. Do you happen to have first touch statistics there?

Plenty of times Judd gets the ball at a stoppage and tries to hand ball it through a cluster of players. A lot of the time it ends up in another stoppage.

Since you are intent on turning this into a pissing contest, any clue at all how many times Swan will get double or triple teamed at stoppages compared to Judd. I'm trying to make a case for them being largely different types of midfielders, while you just want to promote Swan over Judd. No way they get the same attention on the field. Why is that?

 

[themidlandmaster]

I'm trying to make a case for them being largely different types of midfielders, while you just want to promote Swan over Judd. No way they get the same attention on the field. Why is that?

Because Collingwood have quality midfield depth...