Swans 2023 - contend or slide?

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We made top 4 in 2015 after getting pansted by Hawthorn , but did bow out in straight sets due to injuries.

I agree with a lot of posters, next year is a write off but I think we can challenge in 24.

We do need another strong inside mid though.
Tom Mitchell for a fast outside mid?
 
We made top 4 in 2015 after getting pansted by Hawthorn , but did bow out in straight sets due to injuries.

I agree with a lot of posters, next year is a write off but I think we can challenge in 24.

We do need another strong inside mid though.
The Swans need to play Heeney is a full time midfielder - or at least get him playing the majority of the game up around the stoppages.

He might be a good forward, I just think he adds more when he can use his skills and big body to impact around the ground. Try to fashion him into a similar play to Fyfe circa 2013-2015.

There’s enough firepower with Franklin/Reid/Papley/McDonald/Hayward and then cameos from Gulden.

Allow Hayward to play that hybrid half forward role that’s been allocated to Heeney.
 
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The Swans need to play Heeney is a full time midfielder
What they need to do is tell Heeney to * right off.
$900,000 dollarydoos a year and the campaigner didn't even touch the ball until the game was over (which admittedly was pretty early in the day, but still).

Useless finals series. I'm filthy at him.
 
AFL will prop up their failing plastic franchise as they always do
As opposed to what the Bulldogs get.

Approximate 10-year AFL funding totals (2012-21)

*2021 is estimated


GWS - $203m

Gold Coast - $198m

Brisbane - $160m

St Kilda - $156m

Western Bulldogs - $139m

North Melbourne $134m

Melbourne $132m

Port Adelaide - $122m

Sydney - $117m
 
The whole "big pumping in a final causes mental scars!" is all baloney IMO. A lot needs to go right to make big dancing, a little luck helps too.

Clubs get their arse blown out in finals and don't make it next year not because "mental scars", but because they were little bit fortunate to be there in the first place, the players that got them there couldn't back it up a year later (decline in age, form, injury, whatever).

Beautiful Melbourne Demons had 5 AA's on the bench when the final siren blew against Geelong in last years prelim, 80 points up I think. Woulda been a 100 easy if we didn't have a grand final coming.

One year later those Cats waltzed into a Grand Final and smashed the living s**t out of their opponent. I think Sydney are a strong club, they have some soul-searching to do but they will be right back in contention I think.
 
Given there have been plenty of close prelim finals over the years, suggests you need a bit of luck to make it.
The best or most deserving team don't always win the close games, so it is no surprise blowouts do occur in Grand finals.
 

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See no reason why they'll miss finals unless something goes terribly wrong (e.g. Buddy getting injured and missing most or all of the season). Will be as hungry as ever.
 
They're usually pretty mentally tough so I can't see them being buck broken. The issue will be Buddy, The Jaw destroyed any bargaining power he had elsewhere and his re-signing during GF week had the opposite effect to what was intended. A few quiet games in a row and the press will start poking.
 
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I'm guessing a slightly down year before rebounding big time in 2024.

Ageing guys like buddy, Hickey and ramped will most likely dip and that will affect results.

In 2024 warner will be 23 years old and starting to really hit his prime .


In saying that I am expecting warner to explode next year and stamp himself as a top 5 mid
 
The whole "big pumping in a final causes mental scars!" is all baloney IMO. A lot needs to go right to make big dancing, a little luck helps too.

Clubs get their arse blown out in finals and don't make it next year not because "mental scars", but because they were little bit fortunate to be there in the first place, the players that got them there couldn't back it up a year later (decline in age, form, injury, whatever).

Beautiful Melbourne Demons had 5 AA's on the bench when the final siren blew against Geelong in last years prelim, 80 points up I think. Woulda been a 100 easy if we didn't have a grand final coming.

One year later those Cats waltzed into a Grand Final and smashed the living s**t out of their opponent. I think Sydney are a strong club, they have some soul-searching to do but they will be right back in contention I think.
It's not often I agree with him but Toump Ass is spot on with this.
As usual , when BF says history shows something, it means over the past 20 years or so. Tigers fans never tire of telling us how they 'destroyed Adelaide' in the 2017 GF. They won by 48 points .Between 1975 and 1995 there were 8 Grand Finals with bigger margins than this. The team on the losing end of those thumping losses won the flag the next season 4 times( Hawthorn 1976, Essendon 1984,Hawthorn 1986, West Coast 1992,. In 2 other years they backed up to make the GF the next year (Collingwood 1981, Geelong 1995). In the other 2 cases they made the finals. It's true that in the 21st Century the big losers have fared worse, but as Toump Ass points out a whole range of factors, ( where they were on the 'premiership clock, luck with injuries fixturing) can contribute. There's no reason why any psychological effect should be nmore significant in recent years than in that earlier period. If anything, the host of support personell clubs now have should make players more resilient in bouncing back.
 
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To continue re the OP, I would be very surprised if Sydney slide significantly. Bear in mind that although they finished 3rd after the H&A season, there was only one game separating 2nd from 6th. Swans finished 6th in 2021 and could easily finish around same next season without it representing a substantial slide. They have a swag of young players and don't look like their list will be any worse next year, albeit there may not be huge upside. Biggest obstacle may be depth if they get a significantly worse run with injury than they had this season, when their side was very stable.
 
Given there have been plenty of close prelim finals over the years, suggests you need a bit of luck to make it.
The best or most deserving team don't always win the close games, so it is no surprise blowouts do occur in Grand finals.

Exactly right, Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton all should have won those close games this years against Collingwood.
 
History isn't kind. The last 12 teams to have lost grand finals by 40+ have not won a final the next year, the last being Geelong in 1994-95.

The only side to make the top 4 the next year were Sydney in 2015 however they went out in straight sets.
Thanks for that information adammania9, not great reading for a side that has just been unexpectedly flogged by 81 points in a Grand Final, the Swans worst game 'by far' for season, it's just NOT THEM but I do think the 'young' Sydney Swans in 2023 will buck the trend that your posts correctly refers, as I've really liked this 'young Swannies side' all year and they 'by far' have won collectively more 3rd and 4th quarters this year than any other side and for such a 'young side' to achieve that remarkable feat, I can really seeing them being a real challenger next year.... amongst some other very good sides that only need to make a few adjustments in the off season to be extra competitive and a real challenge in 2023 also, including the Dees, Tigers, etc.

3rd and 4th quarters won for 2022 home and away season -

[Top]

Win-Loss Record by Quarter​
Team
1st2nd3rd4thTotals
Sydney
13-1-11 604-509 (24.2-20.4)​
14-0-11 548-515 (21.9-20.6)​
18-0-7 583-458 (23.3-18.3)​
18-0-7 570-430 (22.8-17.2)​
63-1-36 2305-1912 (23.0-19.1)​
Brisbane Lions
14-4-7 552-473 (22.1-18.9)​
11-0-14 525-561 (21.0-22.4)​
16-0-9 671-555 (26.8-22.2)​
15-1-9 646-513 (25.8-20.5)​
56-5-39 2394-2102 (23.9-21.0)​
Geelong
18-1-6 661-436 (26.4-17.4)​
18-1-6 589-380 (23.6-15.2)​
15-0-10 616-467 (24.6-18.7)​
20-1-4 611-378 (24.4-15.1)​
71-3-26 2477-1661 (24.8-16.6)​
Melbourne
19-0-5 571-321 (23.8-13.4)​
14-1-9 545-416 (22.7-17.3)​
15-0-9 542-449 (22.6-18.7)​
12-0-12 426-480 (17.8-20.0)​
60-1-35 2084-1666 (21.7-17.4)​
Richmond
15-1-7 569-446 (24.7-19.4)​
14-2-7 595-477 (25.9-20.7)​
15-0-8 626-458 (27.2-19.9)​
12-0-11 479-505 (20.8-22.0)​
56-3-33 2269-1886 (24.7-20.5)​
Collingwood
14-3-8 584-478 (23.4-19.1)​
11-0-14 415-499 (16.6-20.0)​
14-0-11 528-518 (21.1-20.7)​
13-0-12 557-500 (22.3-20.0)​
52-3-45 2084-1995 (20.8-20.0)​
Fremantle
10-2-12 433-436 (18.0-18.2)​
12-0-12 425-397 (17.7-16.5)​
13-1-10 512-386 (21.3-16.1)​
14-0-10 501-406 (20.9-16.9)​
49-3-44 1871-1625 (19.5-16.9)​
St Kilda
9-0-13 400-481 (18.2-21.9)​
10-0-12 382-398 (17.4-18.1)​
13-0-9 463-406 (21.0-18.5)​
11-0-11 458-430 (20.8-19.5)​
43-0-45 1703-1715 (19.4-19.5)​
Adelaide
6-0-16 394-547 (17.9-24.9)​
11-0-11 434-473 (19.7-21.5)​
12-0-10 416-457 (18.9-20.8)​
9-0-13 477-509 (21.7-23.1)​
38-0-50 1721-1986 (19.6-22.6)​
Western Bulldogs
14-0-9 566-478 (24.6-20.8)​
11-1-11 449-456 (19.5-19.8)​
12-1-10 523-491 (22.7-21.3)​
13-0-10 495-460 (21.5-20.0)​
50-2-40 2033-1885 (22.1-20.5)​
Port Adelaide
11-2-9 450-416 (20.5-18.9)​
10-0-12 425-436 (19.3-19.8)​
11-0-11 498-419 (22.6-19.0)​
11-0-11 433-367 (19.7-16.7)​
43-2-43 1806-1638 (20.5-18.6)​
Carlton
13-0-9 448-412 (20.4-18.7)​
11-0-11 526-460 (23.9-20.9)​
10-0-12 418-458 (19.0-20.8)​
9-0-13 465-384 (21.1-17.5)​
43-0-45 1857-1714 (21.1-19.5)​
Gold Coast
5-1-16 420-544 (19.1-24.7)​
12-0-10 506-442 (23.0-20.1)​
10-0-12 433-431 (19.7-19.6)​
13-0-9 512-403 (23.3-18.3)​
40-1-47 1871-1820 (21.3-20.7)​
Essendon
6-1-15 397-534 (18.0-24.3)​
9-2-11 449-537 (20.4-24.4)​
8-0-14 456-536 (20.7-24.4)​
8-1-13 435-480 (19.8-21.8)​
31-4-53 1737-2087 (19.7-23.7)​
Greater Western Sydney
8-0-14 485-495 (22.0-22.5)​
12-1-9 461-393 (21.0-17.9)​
8-0-14 334-532 (15.2-24.2)​
6-0-16 351-507 (16.0-23.0)​
34-1-53 1631-1927 (18.5-21.9)​
West Coast
5-1-16 318-593 (14.5-27.0)​
4-0-18 360-634 (16.4-28.8)​
8-0-14 351-481 (16.0-21.9)​
5-1-16 400-681 (18.2-31.0)​
22-2-64 1429-2389 (16.2-27.1)​
Hawthorn
13-0-9 512-456 (23.3-20.7)​
10-0-12 440-525 (20.0-23.9)​
6-0-16 349-515 (15.9-23.4)​
12-0-10 486-495 (22.1-22.5)​
41-0-47 1787-1991 (20.3-22.6)​
North Melbourne
5-1-16 334-643 (15.2-29.2)​
9-0-13 387-462 (17.6-21.0)​
2-0-20 313-615 (14.2-28.0)​
4-0-18 303-677 (13.8-30.8)​
20-1-67 1337-2397 (15.2-27.2)​
 
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It will be very interesting. History suggests they’ll slide, but they’re a much stronger club than us in 17, Giants in 19 or Dogs in 21.

I don’t understand the people writing off Buddy though. He still performed at a high level throughout the season and had a big influence in the prelim. I don’t see how a key forward is supposed to have a meaningful impact when his side only had 32 inside 50s.
I was shocked to learn he'd kicked 52 goals this season. The way people are putting him down you'd think he'd only kicked a dozen.
 
Exactly right, Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton all should have won those close games this years against Collingwood.
I entirely agree. It was almost as though teams were deliberately losing to set up a famous Collingwood win. It was all part of a grand plan to make the other teams look bad and disorganised.

I mean, credit to Sydney, they mostly played to the script in the second half against Collingwood, but nobody could have possibly foreseen that ending though...
 
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