The AFL wants 22 teams. Name your next four.

[davidgoes4wce]

Tasmania, Canberra, Bunbury, New Zealand.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Tasmania, Canberra, Bunbury, New Zealand.

Pray tell who's going to pay for the New Zealand team?

 

[davidgoes4wce]

Pray tell who's going to pay for the New Zealand team?

Similar to the PNG NRL expansion, the Australian tax payer.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Similar to the PNG NRL expansion, the Australian tax payer.

And the Brisbane Olympic stadium and the Tassie stadium.

 

[||-GOB-||]

Similar to the PNG NRL expansion, the Australian tax payer.

Is AFL the national sport of NZ?

 

[davidgoes4wce]

Is AFL the national sport of NZ?

No it isn't but there are a large number of Australians that live over there. We already have NZ teams in our national comps eg NRL, A-League , NBL, Super Rugby

Its about TV Rights and the dollar at the end of the day. The AFL Want to grow their product. South Africa failed, China Failed, New Zealand Failed, a brief time USA failed................future TV rights will be big and the final frontier is to get the game kicking overseas. When Im not sure.

With the 20th team probably 20 years away still. 20+ years things would have dramatically changed.

There is talks of Serie A games being played in Perth next season. NFL have expanded into : Ireland, Spain, Germany, UK, Australia in future, Brazil........


NBA has ventured into France for regular season games.

To counter the fact that NZ will probably have a 2nd NRL side, yes I believe its an untapped market, and of all the countries where it potentially could work is NZ.

It would have to be a slow phase though, something like a 1-off game, then build it to 3 games a season.

 

[BigPond101]

Tasmania, Canberra, Bunbury, New Zealand.

Eagles and Dockers already have trouble attracting and keeping Vic talent Bunbury is a hellhole 2 hours drive away without good beaches or any redeeming qualities. Their only players would be spuds who can't get a game anywhere else and are desperate to play

They should put a team near the Busselton airport. They already have flights to Melbourne, the population of all the towns within an hour drive is exploding, they all have nice new highways direct to Busselton. It also has awful beaches but is a lot closer to places like Margeret River. Pretty much everyone in the entire south west region would attend the games.

There's so much empty coast line there they could rebuild a stadium 50 metres from the beach it would look awesome

 

[Coolangatta]

Eagles and Dockers already have trouble attracting and keeping Vic talent Bunbury is a hellhole 2 hours drive away without good beaches or any redeeming qualities. Their only players would be spuds who can't get a game anywhere else and are desperate to play

They should put a team near the Busselton airport. They already have flights to Melbourne, the population of all the towns within an hour drive is exploding, they all have nice new highways direct to Busselton. It also has awful beaches but is a lot closer to places like Margeret River. Pretty much everyone in the entire south west region would attend the games.

There's so much empty coast line there they could rebuild a stadium 50 metres from the beach it would look awesome

South West still has **** all population compared to Canberra or Perth.

They can’t be under serious consideration ahead of them for the 20th team.

Not against it permanently, just not in the next 10 years.

Maybe 30-50 years.

Other than that, I agree if there was ever gonna be a SW team, Busselton is the go to and surely you gotta call them the South West Sharks.

 

[davidgoes4wce]

Bunbury is a hellhole 2 hours drive a

Harsh on Bunbury.

The South West of Western Australia is beautiful. You could make a case, that living in the South West, is more attractive than Perth. It very much works a similar case to living in Geelong versus Melbourne. I dont know exactly the specifics of how many flights coming into Busselton, but if you suggest Busselton- the South West could accept that as well.

At the moment the 20th team, WA3 name is right in the ring after the success off-field of the North Melbourne home game there. WA drew in close 75k for 2 AFL Fixtures last week , Roos v Freo and Eagles v Blues. Not bad considering the Eagles are poor.

But WA3 would be right because today something a bit ironic , WAs population now has hit 3+ million according to the ABC report:

This state's population is growing faster than anywhere in Australia

Western Australia's population surges past 3 million people, with the state taking the gong for the fastest-growing jurisdiction in the country.

www.abc.net.au

if Victoria who have a population of around 7.2 million can cater 10 teams, WA can very well do with 3 AFL teams in their state. Whether that be in Joondalup or the South West I dont exactly have the answer to that.

A boutique stadium of 25k would more than satisfy the WA3 team but you'd want at least 7 to 8 games there- which it clearly would clear, as AFL is pretty 'rusted on' with Western Australians. The team needs to be playing most of their games there to make it feel like a 'home-town' vibe. WA3 versus Eagles, Dockers and maybe 1-2 of the big Victorian teams would be worthy at Optus. Fixturing wise, you don't want it to be a double clash on the same day if there are 2 games in WA during the week.


Imagine packaging a weekend to Eastern staters, by having a Friday Night fixture at Optus Stadium, then having a Sunday afternoon/twilight fixture in Busselton/Bunbury. Huge bonanza for not only the South West region but the whole WA state. Tourism dollars. You can market it as the 'WA get away' but having footy squeezed with winery tours/beaches/Margaret River chocolate factory, sightseeing tours. The South West is only growing as a region, and I feel given the urban sprawl with Perth, the population is expanding a bit too quick possibly for its own liking. As a Western Australian going to Melbourne on weekends in the past, I often circled the calendar to see multiple games I could see during the week, eg Friday Night, Saturday afternoon and Sunday . Having multiple games, I guess gives more people to move around but to do things in between that time.

 

[parano1a]

Imagine packaging a weekend to Eastern staters, by having a Friday Night fixture at Optus Stadium, then having a Sunday afternoon/twilight fixture in Busselton/Bunbury.

This is what Gather Round was designed for, you don't need another team in a sparsely populated regional area to achieve this.

 

[davidgoes4wce]

This is what Gather Round was designed for, you don't need another team in a sparsely populated regional area to achieve this.

I havent been to South Australia before , so I cant really comment.

Im sure , having driven tour groups in the past to the South West, that there would be plenty of people that would want to fulfill their time in WA, doing something outside of Perth. Sometimes Ill admit 3 days can be a long time in Perth, if you just have nature to show. What I will say is being stuck in Perth as a tourist for 3-4 days , you can sometimes be a bit limited in what you can do. Having that unique regional location is a selling point.

When I visited Victoria last summer , I came for the cricket. Because the games were on a tight schedule eg Marvel, MCG, Kardinia Park.........I planned my things and time around those events. Sports tour packages is a big business right now. If you can kill 2 birds with a stone, you look to do as much as you can in the limited amount of time you have. Id imagine for alot of interstaters travelling to WA, often having just 1 footy game in the state sorely would may not be enough of a factor in booking tickets. Id imagine alot on the Eastern seaboard , wouldnt have touched booked tickets to see a 1-off match on a weekend in WA alone.

Based on your comment, Im assuming you havent ruled WA3 out, and your thinking somewhere like Joondalup might work then?

 

[Aussie in exile]

No it isn't but there are a large number of Australians that live over there. We already have NZ teams in our national comps eg NRL, A-League , NBL, Super Rugby

Its about TV Rights and the dollar at the end of the day. The AFL Want to grow their product. South Africa failed, China Failed, New Zealand Failed, a brief time USA failed................future TV rights will be big and the final frontier is to get the game kicking overseas. When Im not sure.

With the 20th team probably 20 years away still. 20+ years things would have dramatically changed.

There is talks of Serie A games being played in Perth next season. NFL have expanded into : Ireland, Spain, Germany, UK, Australia in future, Brazil........


NBA has ventured into France for regular season games.

To counter the fact that NZ will probably have a 2nd NRL side, yes I believe its an untapped market, and of all the countries where it potentially could work is NZ.

It would have to be a slow phase though, something like a 1-off game, then build it to 3 games a season.

Do a majority of Australians living in New Zealand like AFL?

 

[Macca180]

Do a majority of Australians living in New Zealand like AFL?

Do the majority of Trolls like **** as much as you?

 

[Canberra Pear]

I havent been to South Australia before , so I cant really comment.

Im sure , having driven tour groups in the past to the South West, that there would be plenty of people that would want to fulfill their time in WA, doing something outside of Perth. Sometimes Ill admit 3 days can be a long time in Perth, if you just have nature to show. What I will say is being stuck in Perth as a tourist for 3-4 days , you can sometimes be a bit limited in what you can do. Having that unique regional location is a selling point.

When I visited Victoria last summer , I came for the cricket. Because the games were on a tight schedule eg Marvel, MCG, Kardinia Park.........I planned my things and time around those events. Sports tour packages is a big business right now. If you can kill 2 birds with a stone, you look to do as much as you can in the limited amount of time you have. Id imagine for alot of interstaters travelling to WA, often having just 1 footy game in the state sorely would may not be enough of a factor in booking tickets. Id imagine alot on the Eastern seaboard , wouldnt have touched booked tickets to see a 1-off match on a weekend in WA alone.

Based on your comment, Im assuming you havent ruled WA3 out, and your thinking somewhere like Joondalup might work then?

I don't doubt the South West might be more attractive for away fans than Perth, but relying on tourists to bump crowds isn't a very good model.

The Suns get a small bump from tourists, but they still have a core based in a city of 700k. And arguably the Gold Coast is a more popular tourist destination (and much easier to get to).

I know a third Perth team is a more boring option, but I still maintain it's the only viable WA option (at least for the next several decades).

 

[Badger17]

Similar to the PNG NRL expansion, the Australian tax payer.

What possible geopolitical benefit could you plausibly use to sell the idea of the Australian government funding an AFL team in NZ?

The whole funding a pro football team in PNG to stop China's growing influence in the Pacific is insulting nonsense, so I can't imagine the level of spin you'd need to get voters to swallow the idea of the Australian taxpayer underwriting an AFL side in NZ.

Somehow getting the government to fund it wouldn't address the main issues with an NZ based AFL club anyway; namely the lack of demand and fact that Sky Sport has a monopoly on the sports broadcasting market in NZ. The team would be playing in front of largely empty stadiums without any broadcasting value for generations.

 

[BigPond101]

Harsh on Bunbury.

The South West of Western Australia is beautiful. You could make a case, that living in the South West, is more attractive than Perth. It very much works a similar case to living in Geelong versus Melbourne. I dont know exactly the specifics of how many flights coming into Busselton, but if you suggest Busselton- the South West could accept that as well.

At the moment the 20th team, WA3 name is right in the ring after the success off-field of the North Melbourne home game there. WA drew in close 75k for 2 AFL Fixtures last week , Roos v Freo and Eagles v Blues. Not bad considering the Eagles are poor.

But WA3 would be right because today something a bit ironic , WAs population now has hit 3+ million according to the ABC report:

This state's population is growing faster than anywhere in Australia

Western Australia's population surges past 3 million people, with the state taking the gong for the fastest-growing jurisdiction in the country.

www.abc.net.au

if Victoria who have a population of around 7.2 million can cater 10 teams, WA can very well do with 3 AFL teams in their state. Whether that be in Joondalup or the South West I dont exactly have the answer to that.

A boutique stadium of 25k would more than satisfy the WA3 team but you'd want at least 7 to 8 games there- which it clearly would clear, as AFL is pretty 'rusted on' with Western Australians. The team needs to be playing most of their games there to make it feel like a 'home-town' vibe. WA3 versus Eagles, Dockers and maybe 1-2 of the big Victorian teams would be worthy at Optus. Fixturing wise, you don't want it to be a double clash on the same day if there are 2 games in WA during the week.


Imagine packaging a weekend to Eastern staters, by having a Friday Night fixture at Optus Stadium, then having a Sunday afternoon/twilight fixture in Busselton/Bunbury. Huge bonanza for not only the South West region but the whole WA state. Tourism dollars. You can market it as the 'WA get away' but having footy squeezed with winery tours/beaches/Margaret River chocolate factory, sightseeing tours. The South West is only growing as a region, and I feel given the urban sprawl with Perth, the population is expanding a bit too quick possibly for its own liking. As a Western Australian going to Melbourne on weekends in the past, I often circled the calendar to see multiple games I could see during the week, eg Friday Night, Saturday afternoon and Sunday . Having multiple games, I guess gives more people to move around but to do things in between that time.

The tourism factor is more reason why the team couldn't be in Bunbury. Otherwise East Coast tourists would have to fly into Busselton, rent a car then drive to Bunbury which would be over an hour with gameday traffic. Then they would have to drive back to their accommodation in Busselton since Bunbury is a terrible place to explore the south west from especially if you only have a few days.

 

[parano1a]

The team would be playing in front of largely empty stadiums without any broadcasting value for generations.

You could make the same argument about the Giants though. Whenever they play at Engie Stadium the crowd looks less than half full, with the top decks usually closed.

 

[davidgoes4wce]

I don't doubt the South West might be more attractive for away fans than Perth, but relying on tourists to bump crowds isn't a very good model.

The Suns get a small bump from tourists, but they still have a core based in a city of 700k. And arguably the Gold Coast is a more popular tourist destination (and much easier to get to).

I know a third Perth team is a more boring option, but I still maintain it's the only viable WA option (at least for the next several decades).

Hence, why I feel Canberra has a bit going for it.

If your in Sydney, its not a long trek, in fact Busselton to Perth 3 hours, is comparable to Canberra to Sydney by coach/bus/car.

I just feel for alot of Western Australians anyway the chance to get 'down south' as they say for a weekend is a big thing as well. There would be alot of AFL fans willing to do the 2-3 hour drive down south to support whatever away team that was playing.

Do a majority of Australians living in New Zealand like AFL?

No they dont but the crowds from a decade ago for a supposedly novelty event were decent. 22k, 13k and 12k for 3 games in NZs 2nd largest city in Wellington.

20 years is a long time, things will change. If the AFL wants to develop, keep on top of their game, overseas expansion will come.

I wouldnt rule it out. The sport needs to reach and grow into new markets if it wants to survive.


I see a NZ team before a NT team as well.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Hence, why I feel Canberra has a bit going for it.

If your in Sydney, its not a long trek, in fact Busselton to Perth 3 hours, is comparable to Canberra to Sydney by coach/bus/car.

I just feel for alot of Western Australians anyway the chance to get 'down south' as they say for a weekend is a big thing as well. There would be alot of AFL fans willing to do the 2-3 hour drive down south to support whatever away team that was playing.

I think the South West is good for a few games. Can see two or three a year. But can't see it being anything more than a secondary ground

No they dont but the crowds from a decade ago for a supposedly novelty event were decent. 22k, 13k and 12k for 3 games in NZs 2nd largest city in Wellington.

20 years is a long time, things will change. If the AFL wants to develop, keep on top of their game, overseas expansion will come.

I wouldnt rule it out. The sport needs to reach and grow into new markets if it wants to survive.

I see a NZ team before a NT team as well.

I agree with this.

If Auckland had an AFL-capable stadium, I think we'd still be seeing matches in NZ.

Auckland is more than four times the size of Wellington. Only needs a smaller portion of the city to engage compared to Wellington.

A New Zealand team wouldn't happen over night, but once an AFL-capable stadium is built, I can see a presence slowly being built up until the city is capable of hosting a team.

I don't see the next round of expansion happening until at least 2050. A lot of ground work can be done in that time.

 

[Coolangatta]

I think the South West is good for a few games. Can see two or three a year. But can't see it being anything more than a secondary ground



I agree with this.

If Auckland had an AFL-capable stadium, I think we'd still be seeing matches in NZ.

Auckland is more than four times the size of Wellington. Only needs a smaller portion of the city to engage compared to Wellington.

A New Zealand team wouldn't happen over night, but once an AFL-capable stadium is built, I can see a presence slowly being built up until the city is capable of hosting a team.

I don't see the next round of expansion happening until at least 2050. A lot of ground work can be done in that time.

Sounds like Auckland is a long way off having an AFL standard ground, though. So, not sure they’d be in the running for the next round of expansion if there even is one.

 

[Badger17]

You could make the same argument about the Giants though. Whenever they play at Engie Stadium the crowd looks less than half full, with the top decks usually closed.

I agree, now imagine all the problems GWS have had but way worse. That's what an NZ team would be like.

In NZ you'd mostly be playing in front of sub-10k crowds for years, potentially decades, and it's likely that Sky Sport would only offer a pittance for the broadcasting rights without any competition to push the value up. Auckland doesn't have a stadium suitable to host AFL either, and I can't see them building one like TAS frankly, so you'd likely end up having to base the team out of the Cake Tin in Wellington, which wouldn't be ideal either.

The Warriors are 30 years old this year and they've only really become successful commercially in the last few years. It took them that long to establish themselves properly and RL was way more popular and relevant than Aussie Rules is in NZ, so imagine the struggle establishing an AFL side would be.

Hypothetically you could get an NZ AFL side up now I'm sure, but it'd be risky and exorbitantly expensive even compared to the other expansion teams. Realistically an NZ side is 10s of millions of dollars and decades of ground work away from being a sensible idea.

 

[Coolangatta]

I don’t really see anyone aside from Canberra, Perth 3 and Brisbane 2 as being viable for expansion within the next thirty years.

Anyone else other than that is 50+ years away, unless the federal government is going to fund an NT club forever, which I doubt.

We’ve already seen from the AFL’s approach to Tassie that they aren’t running a charity and they should not make an exception for the top end.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I agree, now imagine all the problems GWS have had but way worse. That's what an NZ team would be like.

In NZ you'd mostly be playing in front of sub-10k crowds for years, potentially decades, and it's likely that Sky Sport would only offer a pittance for the broadcasting rights without any competition to push the value up. Auckland doesn't have a stadium suitable to host AFL either, and I can't see them building one like TAS frankly, so you'd likely end up having to base the team out of the Cake Tin in Wellington, which wouldn't be ideal either.

The Warriors are 30 years old this year and they've only really become successful commercially in the last few years. It took them that long to establish themselves properly and RL was way more popular and relevant than Aussie Rules is in NZ, so imagine the struggle establishing an AFL side would be.

Hypothetically you could get an NZ AFL side up now I'm sure, but it'd be risky and exorbitantly expensive even compared to the other expansion teams. Realistically an NZ side is 10s of millions of dollars and decades of ground work away from being a sensible idea.

I envisage an Auckland team being a trendy inner-city yuppie in the likes of Brisbane and Sydney and differentiating itself from RL fans in Auckland who still trend working class and play in the suburbs. The RU season doesn't entirely overlap. Then you have the fact that it can be an away destination for east coast Australians or those with NZ heritage who use it as a travel destination. On the other hand Auckland inner city is basically the most expensive place in the world to live and an Auckland AFL team can sort of be that counter-cultural trendy team to support for successful young professionals who can afford to live in inner-city Auckland, much like how Brisbane and Sydney crowds and support have been successful post COVID.

All of this assumes you do a trial run with 2-4 games in the stadium once the stadium is actually built which could be 20 years away too.

I think the idea of linking it to academies or developing the sport or making it an "investment" is off the mark for the reasons you point out. It's just a smash and grab if the perfect stadium exists, to provide a trendy entertainment product for Aucklandites. That's it.

I don't think the GWS comparison is apt because that is basically trying to win the hearts and minds of multicultural suburbia over generations with GWS's existence inherently linked to developing the code in the area, through family-friendly timeslots, academies, investing more broadly in the code (as Demetriou laid out all those years ago). That is not the intention in Auckland, the idea for the team can almost be attendance-based commercial alone and that's about it.

Of course, all of this is predicated on it being a perfect, 30,000 odd seat stadium also used for cricket, in a really good location, with all games being played Friday/Saturday night. A Sunday evening game hosting Port, Freo or GWS will get crap crowds. Will require some fixture manipulation too.

 

[Coolangatta]

A minimum of 500k people needs to be baseline IMO.

In conjunction with: a stadium that’s hosted AFL games and even more population requirements if the market is already covered.

For example, 1.5 million people would not make a 3rd Adelaide club viable because the new club wouldn’t get a third of the share of support.

So looking at all of that, a 3rd Perth team is the only viable option for a 20th club until Manuka gets an upgrade.

Beyond that, possibly a second Brisbane club in a few decades as they’ll have the population and the stadium but they’ll need to have the demand.

Anywhere else like Sunshine Coast etc is out of the question until they have a stadium and host games there.

And no way can Sydney support a third team yet when the Giants are struggling. Two teams might be the best you can get out of them even long term, as much as the AFL wishes otherwise.

 

[Badger17]

I envisage an Auckland team being a trendy inner-city yuppie in the likes of Brisbane and Sydney and differentiating itself from RL fans in Auckland who still trend working class and play in the suburbs. The RU season doesn't entirely overlap. Then you have the fact that it can be an away destination for east coast Australians or those with NZ heritage who use it as a travel destination. On the other hand Auckland inner city is basically the most expensive place in the world to live and an Auckland AFL team can sort of be that counter-cultural trendy team to support for successful young professionals who can afford to live in inner-city Auckland, much like how Brisbane and Sydney crowds and support have been successful post COVID.

RU already corners that trendy inner-city yuppies market, and it's season runs from Feb - Nov (Super Rugby from Feb - June/July, NPC and Internationals from June/July - Nov) so they do completely overlap.

Targeting that up market wealthier demographic is probably a terrible idea anyway. One of RU's big issues in NZ recently, and particularly in Auckland, is the cost. Families and younger demos are being priced out of Super, and other competitors such as the Warriors, Auckland FC, and Breakers have exploited that by undercutting Super and offering a more a prestigious professional product than the NPC can compete with, and in doing so have mopped up a bunch of their traditional support base, particularly from the middle classes.

All of this assumes you do a trial run with 2-4 games in the stadium once the stadium is actually built which could be 20 years away too.

This is true.

Auckland has been arguing about it's stadiums strategy since about 05 and have made no progress whatsoever as far as I'm aware. It's also likely that they'd build a replacement for Eden Park first if/when they finally agree on the upgrades, and that decision could still be years or decades away. So I can't see them building an AFL standard oval stadium anytime within the foreseeable future, or them having any interest in building one frankly. Dangling the carrot of an AFL license in front of them isn't likely to make any difference as might in Australia either.

As I've said a few times now; realistically the AFL's only option to expand to NZ within the foreseeable future would be Wellington because it's the only place in NZ with an oval stadium capable of hosting AFL.

Launching in Wellington would complicate everything. It's metro area (Wellington, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt, and Porirua) has a population somewhere about 400-450k, and they're noted for having a more transient population and a less fanatical sporting culture with a fickle fanbase. So it probably wouldn't be the greatest market to try and launch a new professional sport in.

I think the idea of linking it to academies or developing the sport or making it an "investment" is off the mark for the reasons you point out. It's just a smash and grab if the perfect stadium exists, to provide a trendy entertainment product for Aucklandites. That's it.

I don't think the GWS comparison is apt because that is basically trying to win the hearts and minds of multicultural suburbia over generations with GWS's existence inherently linked to developing the code in the area, through family-friendly timeslots, academies, investing more broadly in the code (as Demetriou laid out all those years ago). That is not the intention in Auckland, the idea for the team can almost be attendance-based commercial alone and that's about it.

Of course, all of this is predicated on it being a perfect, 30,000 odd seat stadium also used for cricket, in a really good location, with all games being played Friday/Saturday night. A Sunday evening game hosting Port, Freo or GWS will get crap crowds. Will require some fixture manipulation too.

The GWS comparison is fine in that Auckland and NZ in general is a market with not only low demand for a professional Aussie Rules product, but little to no awareness of what it actually is generally speaking.

Similar to Western Sydney, the average Aucklander probably would have heard of the AFL through Australian media but have little to no knowledge about it other than that. They'd probably be incapable of naming a team or player and almost certainly haven't watched a game let alone know the basics of the rules.

It's actually worse than Western Sydney, because at least in Sydney there's something of an existing fanbase and knowledge of Aussie Rules and a significant expat population from the Aussie Rules states. In NZ the AFL would be coming in stone cold, with a latent fanbase so small that it's effectively irrelevant commercially. They'd effectively be starting completely from scratch, maybe something like the NHL or a professional Lacrosse launching teams in Australia. Novelty would probably get them by for the initial launch, but after that it'd be an expensive uphill struggle for decades just to gain a toehold, let alone establish the club.