Toast The anti-Hinkleyball

[Janus]

How does Howard = Bergman AND Williams? Didn’t we give up Ryder and our first rounder to the Saints as well?

Then I can't show you the trade in the same format, but we traded the first pick in the second round to Brisbane for the second pick in the second round (which got us Williams) + Collingwood's 2020 R2 pick (which helped us to get Lachie Jones since we had given up our 2020 first round pick to Brisbane - which ended up being Pick 22).

So it was Wingard for Duursma + Burton and Howard + Ryder + our first round pick for Bergman + Williams + Jones. Wow, it even looks better. We literally stacked our entire general defensive stocks for 2023 on the back of two trades.

Thanks for questioning it

 

[Pappagallo]

View attachment 1718862

View attachment 1718864

Then I can't show you the trade in the same format, but we traded the first pick in the second round to Brisbane for the second pick in the second round (which got us Williams) + Collingwood's 2020 R2 pick (which helped us to get Lachie Jones since we had given up our 2020 first round pick to Brisbane - which ended up being Pick 22).

So it was Wingard for Duursma + Burton and Howard + Ryder + our first round pick for Bergman + Williams + Jones. Wow, it even looks better. We literally stacked our entire general defensive stocks for 2023 on the back of two trades.

Thanks for questioning it

How is that better? We’ve gone from Howard = Bergman and Williams to Howard PLUS Ryder PLUS first round pick = Bergman and Williams and part of Jones later who was an academy pick anyway.

In fact we could have literally done nothing and still drafted Bergman with our first and probably Jones too with a bit of pick swapping. You just love adding salsa to these scenarios.

 

[Janus]

We averaged more intercept marks in 2017 than we do in 2023. We were 2nd in the league that year, only to West Coast who had that ungodly deep intercept marking lineup. This year we're sitting bang on the AFL average. Our problem has never been an inability to generate intercept marks, we've been very good at it for years. We also had our best defender in Trengove playing as a poor KPF for no good reason.

Getting everyone back an playing out slowly was a coaching directive because we were scared of turning the ball over. This year we're intercepting the ball less but we're immediately damaging with it because we're willing to take risks and use the corridor.

That coaching directive prevented us from beating the better sides and getting clowned at home by 8th in the EF was an accurate representation of how good we were because of how risk averse we were.

Here's a thought experiment for you.

Do you know what the difference in disposals is between Port Adelaide playing Fremantle at home in 2017 and Port Adelaide playing North Melbourne away in 2023 is in terms of defenders?

The North Melbourne game our defenders had 2 more disposals.

What about the 2017 game at Geelong away vs the 2023 game vs Geelong at home?

2023 we had +38 more disposals by defenders (Houston by himself had 31 disposals, whereas the highest disposal winning defender in 2017 was Jonas with 13).

So my question is - if we were scared of turning the ball over against better sides, why isn't it the other way around? You'd think we would have kicked the ball around in defence. Even when our defenders were doing that (say against GWS away in 2017), it was 96 disposals...14 less than what we had against Geelong this year.

 

[TeeKray]

Howard is a spud so we lost nothing there. Ryder + a first round pick for Bergman + Williams is excellent work. Having said that, Ryder could've been handy as a second ruck in the last quarter of the 2020 prelim ...

 

[Janus]

How is that better? We’ve gone from Howard = Bergman and Williams to Howard PLUS Ryder PLUS first round pick = Bergman and Williams and part of Jones later who was an academy pick anyway.

In fact we could have literally done nothing and still drafted Bergman with our first and probably Jones too with a bit of pick swapping. You just love adding salsa to these scenarios.

Howard + a third round pick (seriously, that was all 1 time AA Ryder was worth at 31 when 2 time AA Grundy at 29 is worth Pick 27) + first round pick for three best 22 defenders is good business, even more so since we finished third the year after.

 

[Pappagallo]

Howard is a spud so we lost nothing there. Ryder + a first round pick for Bergman + Williams is excellent work. Having said that, Ryder could've been handy as a second ruck in the last quarter of the 2020 prelim ...

The main point I was making is that Bergman is essentially independent of the deal. We would’ve got him trade or no trade if we wanted him.

Howard + a third round pick (seriously, that was all 1 time AA Ryder was worth at 31 when 2 time AA Grundy at 29 is worth Pick 27) + first round pick for three best 22 defenders is good business, even more so since we finished third the year after.

Again it’s a partial for Jones and again it’s not as good as your original assertion of Howard = Bergman and Williams.

We’re getting Bergman regardless of whether we do the trade or not, or Pickett instead if you want to walk through that sliding door.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Here's a thought experiment for you.

Do you know what the difference in disposals is between Port Adelaide playing Fremantle at home in 2017 and Port Adelaide playing North Melbourne away in 2023 is in terms of defenders?

The North Melbourne game our defenders had 2 more disposals.

What about the 2017 game at Geelong away vs the 2023 game vs Geelong at home?

2023 we had +38 more disposals by defenders (Houston by himself had 31 disposals, whereas the highest disposal winning defender in 2017 was Jonas with 13).

So my question is - if we were scared of turning the ball over against better sides, why isn't it the other way around? You'd think we would have kicked the ball around in defence. Even when our defenders were doing that (say against GWS away in 2017), it was 96 disposals...14 less than what we had against Geelong this year.

Oh wow yeah these contextless stats from a handful of cherry picked games have completely turned me around on this issue.

Defenders probably had less touches in those games because they had to share the back 50 with all of our midfielders and several of our forwards.

 

[longdonkey]

Our best intercept defender for that year who played more than 5 games was Hamish Hartlett with 2.1 per game, followed by Jonas (2.0), Houston (1.8), Clurey (1.7), Hombsch (1.7), Pittard (1.5), Byrne-Jones (1.4) and Broadbent (1.0). If you assume that Clurey and Hombsch replaced each other, you get 11.5 intercept marks per game.

Our best intercept defender for this year who has played more than 5 games is Aliir Aliir with 3.1, followed by Bergman (2.2), McKenzie (2.1), Williams (1.4), Jonas (1.3), Houston (1.1), Jones (0.7), Burton (0.6), Farrell (0.5) and Bonner (0.2). 11 intercept marks per game if you go with Aliir, Bergman, McKenzie, Williams, Houston, Jones and Farrell as your defenders.

We played that style because we didn't have a genuine intercept defender, so we needed players to push back to help out defence. Wait until we get Ratugolea and we have two of them the way that Melbourne has with Lever and May.

Wha! So in whatever year that first year is we had 11.5 intercepts per game and in 2023 we have 11 intercepts per game, but we played the s**t slow style in the first year because we didn't have an intercept defender. BUT WE HAD MORE INTERCEPT MARKS IN THE FIRST YEAR. That makes no sense.

 

[longdonkey]

How is that better? We’ve gone from Howard = Bergman and Williams to Howard PLUS Ryder PLUS first round pick = Bergman and Williams and part of Jones later who was an academy pick anyway.

In fact we could have literally done nothing and still drafted Bergman with our first and probably Jones too with a bit of pick swapping. You just love adding salsa to these scenarios.

and that first round pick turned into Kysiah Pickett?

 

[longdonkey]

Here's a thought experiment for you.

Do you know what the difference in disposals is between Port Adelaide playing Fremantle at home in 2017 and Port Adelaide playing North Melbourne away in 2023 is in terms of defenders?

The North Melbourne game our defenders had 2 more disposals.

What about the 2017 game at Geelong away vs the 2023 game vs Geelong at home?

2023 we had +38 more disposals by defenders (Houston by himself had 31 disposals, whereas the highest disposal winning defender in 2017 was Jonas with 13).

So my question is - if we were scared of turning the ball over against better sides, why isn't it the other way around? You'd think we would have kicked the ball around in defence. Even when our defenders were doing that (say against GWS away in 2017), it was 96 disposals...14 less than what we had against Geelong this year.

Here's a thought experiment for you - Why does that matter?

 

[Jonts]

Our best intercept defender for that year who played more than 5 games was Hamish Hartlett with 2.1 per game, followed by Jonas (2.0), Houston (1.8), Clurey (1.7), Hombsch (1.7), Pittard (1.5), Byrne-Jones (1.4) and Broadbent (1.0). If you assume that Clurey and Hombsch replaced each other, you get 11.5 intercept marks per game.

Our best intercept defender for this year who has played more than 5 games is Aliir Aliir with 3.1, followed by Bergman (2.2), McKenzie (2.1), Williams (1.4), Jonas (1.3), Houston (1.1), Jones (0.7), Burton (0.6), Farrell (0.5) and Bonner (0.2). 11 intercept marks per game if you go with Aliir, Bergman, McKenzie, Williams, Houston, Jones and Farrell as your defenders.

We played that style because we didn't have a genuine intercept defender, so we needed players to push back to help out defence. Wait until we get Ratugolea and we have two of them the way that Melbourne has with Lever and May.


Yeah, well let's agree to disagree on the mental application of Chad Wingard. I'm still waiting for the Brownlow I was promised by certain individuals on this forum that he would win under Clarkson.

Speaking of which, the trade of Wingard and Howard that this forum cracked the shits about netted us Burton, Duursma, Bergman and Williams. All of whom would be considered best 22 for a team that is currently on an 11 game winning streak and is on top of the ladder.

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Four years and counting

 

[Jonts]

Howard is a spud so we lost nothing there. Ryder + a first round pick for Bergman + Williams is excellent work. Having said that, Ryder could've been handy as a second ruck in the last quarter of the 2020 prelim ...

If the sub rule is a year earlier we win the flag in 2020
Westhoff as the ultimate sub

 

[I Dont Care]

All I know is that my passion died circa 2016 and I can not take the lid off till a GF appearance. We head into the bye on the best side of the ledger, but that is only a tick. A win against the Pies will get us another tick. Keeping Hinkley away from the brains trust in the box...I'll give another tick

 

[Schulzenfest]

Howard + a third round pick (seriously, that was all 1 time AA Ryder was worth at 31 when 2 time AA Grundy at 29 is worth Pick 27) + first round pick for three best 22 defenders is good business, even more so since we finished third the year after.

We were getting Jones anyway. The deal didn't get us Jones, all it did was mean that there was one less late pick we needed to find from elsewhere.

In reality the deal was Howard + Ryder + Kossie Pickett for Bergman and Williams, which up until about three months looked like one of the absolute worst trades of all time, and now just looks like an average at best trade.

 

[GremioPower]

We were getting Jones anyway. The deal didn't get us Jones, all it did was mean that there was one less late pick we needed to find from elsewhere.

In reality the deal was Howard + Ryder + Kossie Pickett for Bergman and Williams, which up until about three months looked like one of the absolute worst trades of all time, and now just looks like an average at best trade.

I have no idea how we ended up trading DOWN.

 

[Janus]

We were getting Jones anyway. The deal didn't get us Jones, all it did was mean that there was one less late pick we needed to find from elsewhere.

In reality the deal was Howard + Ryder + Kossie Pickett for Bergman and Williams, which up until about three months looked like one of the absolute worst trades of all time, and now just looks like an average at best trade.

If you want to go down that path - we wouldn’t have been able to pick up Fantasia with our second round pick (29) if we didn’t have Collingwood’s second round pick to use on Jones. We would have went into deficit and it would have cost us any shot at Sinn.

So it was Howard + Ryder + Pickett for Bergman + Williams + Fantasia/Sinn if you think we would have got Jones anyway.

 

[Schulzenfest]

If you want to go down that path - we wouldn’t have been able to pick up Fantasia with our second round pick (29) if we didn’t have Collingwood’s second round pick to use on Jones. We would have went into deficit and it would have cost us any shot at Sinn.

So it was Howard + Ryder + Pickett for Bergman + Williams + Fantasia/Sinn if you think we would have got Jones anyway.

Maybe you can figure out a way that it got us Rozee and Butters too?

 

[Pappagallo]

We were getting Jones anyway. The deal didn't get us Jones, all it did was mean that there was one less late pick we needed to find from elsewhere.

In reality the deal was Howard + Ryder + Kossie Pickett for Bergman and Williams, which up until about three months looked like one of the absolute worst trades of all time, and now just looks like an average at best trade.

Jones is on the periphery here. Fantasia even more so. He’s barely even visible in this deal (and in general). They’re not important.

All this boils down to is that Janus made the mistake of including Bergman when he was just our default first round pick that got kicked back two spots in the wash. Easy one to make with so much going on in these deals.

It’s the same mistake people make with Butters. I’ve lost count how many times he’s been rolled into the Polec/Pittard trade.

 

[KenGaveUsWhatHeDeserved]

I have no idea how we ended up trading DOWN.

I thought that at the time and I still can't work it out.

we gave away 2 players, and turned pick 10 into pick 12

Basically, they were saying we had no other way of turning Howard and Ryder and any other draft pick into pick 18 (so as to keep pick #10)?

 

[Janus]

Jones is on the periphery here. Fantasia even more so. He’s barely even visible in this deal (and in general). They’re not important.

All this boils down to is that Janus made the mistake of including Bergman when he was just our default first round pick that got kicked back two spots in the wash. Easy one to make with so much going on in these deals.

It’s the same mistake people make with Butters. I’ve lost count how many times he’s been rolled into the Polec/Pittard trade.

Fantasia kicked 4 goals against Geelong in a qualifying final.

He may be made of crepe paper but he's neither on the periphery or not important. If he was fit he'd be best 22 no questions asked.

The real mistake is people thinking that Howard was worth 19 by himself. He's a spud, and he'll always be a spud. Aliir, Bergman and McKenzie are averaging more intercept marks a game than he is this year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I have no idea how we ended up trading DOWN.

What do you mean? You don't understand the mechanics or the reasons for the resultant trade?

 

[KenGaveUsWhatHeDeserved]

What do you mean? You don't understand the mechanics or the reasons for the resultant trade?

in the morning we woke up and we had Ryder, Howard and pick 10

later that afternoon we had none of those 3, and now had picks 12 and 18

it's Jack and the Beanstalk 4 magic beans stuff

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

in the morning we woke up and we had Ryder, Howard and pick 10

later that afternoon we had none of those 3, and now had picks 12 and 18

it's Jack and the Beanstalk 4 magic beans stuff

We also had StK's 3rd of 2020 and gave away our 4th of 2020.

If you look at those future picks and said they will be similar to 2019's picks then we got approx pick 50 and gave up pick 70.

That means StK probably valued Howard at about 23 and Ryder at pick 45. That's a high second rounder for Howard and a high 3rd rounder for Ryder. That's not that unreasonable. Howard (15 games) and Ryder were fringe players in 2019, Ryder more so because he was injury prone rather than being fringe and we couldn't depend on him playing the full year.

Put these into 1 years draft value calculator, which the trade guys use, and you get



Put the whole trade in and yeah we lose a bit but have 2 additional first rounders.



Remember after the 2018 - 11-4 capitulation to 12-10, the club said most of the guys on the list aren't going to take us to a flag and they made the strategic move to build the best U/23 list and started with Rozee, Butters and Duursma. They then had a great impact in 2019. The club wanted to do something similar in 2019 draft, but not as grandiose. Other clubs probably weren't going to provide the opportunity to be outsmarted by us a second time.

At the time I wasn't happy about the move, but I thought losing Ryder should mean we play Hayes as we did give him another 2 year extension after he had played 2 or 3 games for the Magpies but unfortunately did his ACL in Rd 10 of 2018, so we obviously saw a lot of potential in him very early on and he would be part of that best U/23 list. Howard was being dicked around, so whilst I was against the trade I saw that if he didn't want to play how the coaches wanted him why hang on to him.

Have we lost in the trade? Until Bergman and Williams ( and the part of the points we got for Jones by trading out 18 to Carlton and then Brisbane and helped us get about 1/3rd of the pts for Jones in 2020) started turning it on the last dozen weeks, it looked that way. But sign these guys on for a few more years and they continue to improve, we will be big winners.

Sometimes you need a few years to look back on things and why things were done the way they were to see if it made sense.

 

[longdonkey]

I don't like to assess trades because its fluid. Ryder played some pretty good football for St Kilda and when we had no ruckman last year would have been happy to have him around. At the end of the day the fact that both of them were playing consistently meant both players and club got a decent deal.

 

[Pappagallo]

Fantasia kicked 4 goals against Geelong in a qualifying final.

He may be made of crepe paper but he's neither on the periphery or not important. If he was fit he'd be best 22 no questions asked.

The real mistake is people thinking that Howard was worth 19 by himself. He's a spud, and he'll always be a spud. Aliir, Bergman and McKenzie are averaging more intercept marks a game than he is this year.

Fantasia is a bonus player and nothing more. He’s not to be planned for or relied upon for anything. He’s an Italian sports car. Great to drive when it’s not in the shop, which is almost always.

As for Howard he was essentially traded for not much less than Pick 18. You yourself consider Ryder to be nothing more than 3rd round pick steak knives. That’s what we got so that was his worth at the time, irrespective of whether you think he’s a spud.

Bergman is a great intercept player, but he’s still not involved in the Howard deal.