The Association Football AFL thread

[ADL9798]

GWS, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Collingwood twice.

Only GWS is really tough in that bunch. Tigers at home. Port at home for the 10 year reunion.

Remember the fortunes of sides will change from season to season, and what looks great on paper now may not be so straightforward in March/April. You've just lost 2 club legends in Bartel & Enright, 2 significant contributors in Caddy & Kersten, and to a lesser extent the likes of Smedts, Vardy & Clark, while adding very little in the off-season (Tuohy I rate but still isn't in the class of Bartel or Enright).

Point being, I wouldn't be counting your chickens re: the draw just yet! We saw that first hand last season, early predictions were we'd be 0-10 by the halfway point of the season, but Port and Gold Coast didn't step up as predicted, while Freo fell off the face of the earth, and contrary to most of the 'experts' we improved as a side despite losing our best player.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Remember the fortunes of sides will change from season to season, and what looks great on paper now may not be so straightforward in March/April. You've just lost 2 club legends in Bartel & Enright, 2 significant contributors in Caddy & Kersten, and to a lesser extent the likes of Smedts, Vardy & Clark, while adding very little in the off-season (Tuohy I rate but still isn't in the class of Bartel or Enright).

Point being, I wouldn't be counting your chickens re: the draw just yet! We saw that first hand last season, early predictions were we'd be 0-10 by the halfway point of the season, but Port and Gold Coast didn't step up as predicted, while Freo fell off the face of the earth, and contrary to most of the 'experts' we improved as a side despite losing our best player.

Maybe, I know what club you are referring to... and I'll be pissed if we don't win twice.

Smedts, Vardy, Clark. Yeah we're missing time in the rehab room there.
Bartel we won't miss as much as some think. Has been on the periphery for about 4 years.
Enright, sure. He's irreplaceable. However Tuohy and Thurlow into the defensive mix will keep the back line strong for a while yet.
Caddy is a loss, no question. Bookmark it, this will be what allows Cockatoo and Lang to establish themselves as AFL footballers.
Black is the same sort of player as Kersten so there's a like for like swap, just need to get him fit.

Our losses this off season won't have a huge impact on 2017, but it will affect after that.
I'd still have us as about the 4th-5th best team in the comp but would like a DFA or two. Barlow and Green are two I'd like.

 

[ADL9798]

Maybe, I know what club you are referring to... and I'll be pissed if we don't win twice.

Smedts, Vardy, Clark. Yeah we're missing time in the rehab room there.
Bartel we won't miss as much as some think. Has been on the periphery for about 4 years.
Enright, sure. He's irreplaceable. However Tuohy and Thurlow into the defensive mix will keep the back line strong for a while yet.
Caddy is a loss, no question. Bookmark it, this will be what allows Cockatoo and Lang to establish themselves as AFL footballers.
Black is the same sort of player as Kersten so there's a like for like swap, just need to get him fit.

Our losses this off season won't have a huge impact on 2017, but it will affect after that.
I'd still have us as about the 4th-5th best team in the comp but would like a DFA or two. Barlow and Green are two I'd like.

Just a general point. I don't ever see the point in cheering or moaning about the ease/difficulty of the fixture at this stage of the year. 2016 form means next to nothing. Lists change, players improve/regress.

While you might see Geelong as a strong side right now, significant changes to your list in the off-season mean that arguments could be made for you regress or stagnate just as easily as they could for you to improve next season.

Same goes for all the sides you're doubling up against.

• Hawks have lost 2 key players in Lewis and Mitchell but replaced them with 2 very exciting young midfielders in O'Meara and Mitchell, who knows what they'll do next season.
• Adelaide, missed out on Gibbs but like the Cats I'm sure we'll be trying to lure Barlow. Will another year learning Pyke's game plan see our relatively young core group of players step up another level, or will we suffer 2nd year blues as the rest of the league figure us out?
• Freo have lost Pav but will add McCarthy, Hill, Kersten, Hamling, and have Fyfe, Bennell and Johnson returning from long term injuries. I think it's unlikely that they won't improve on last season.
• Collingwood bat ridiculously far down the order in midfield and many of them are still young and improving. You'd think that surely it has to click for them at some point, but then maybe I'm underestimating how terrible Buckley is at coaching?

 

[chef]

Just a general point. I don't ever see the point in cheering or moaning about the ease/difficulty of the fixture at this stage of the year. 2016 form means next to nothing. Lists change, players improve/regress.

This. You really don't know if you have an easy or hard draw until the end of the season, not the start.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Just a general point. I don't ever see the point in cheering or moaning about the ease/difficulty of the fixture at this stage of the year. 2016 form means next to nothing. Lists change, players improve/regress.

While you might see Geelong as a strong side right now, significant changes to your list in the off-season mean that arguments could be made for you regress or stagnate just as easily as they could for you to improve next season.

Same goes for all the sides you're doubling up against.

• Hawks have lost 2 key players in Lewis and Mitchell but replaced them with 2 very exciting young midfielders in O'Meara and Mitchell, who knows what they'll do next season.
• Adelaide, missed out on Gibbs but like the Cats I'm sure we'll be trying to lure Barlow. Will another year learning Pyke's game plan see our relatively young core group of players step up another level, or will we suffer 2nd year blues as the rest of the league figure us out?
• Freo have lost Pav but will add McCarthy, Hill, Kersten, Hamling, and have Fyfe, Bennell and Johnson returning from long term injuries. I think it's unlikely that they won't improve on last season.
• Collingwood bat ridiculously far down the order in midfield and many of them are still young and improving. You'd think that surely it has to click for them at some point, but then maybe I'm underestimating how terrible Buckley is at coaching?

Maybe, if I said to you you'd lose next year to Port would you be disappointed with that outcome given the two teams abilities?
I feel similarly about Adelaide, we simply have a better midfield and you don't have a player to go with our dynamic duo. So yeah I'd be disappointed to lose. More so at home than away as I think the away game is in a stretch of interstate trips. So is a possible loss.
If we win fewer than 6 of our 10 double up games that's an abject fail.

I think you are severely underestimating how bad Buckley is, topped up to save his job. The quicker they axe him the better they'll be, funny you rattle on about our departures. They've just gutted their defence. Williams, Toovey, Brown and Frost out. So relying on Reid (good luck) and Dunn. Their defensive woes will see them having to play more negatively to protect that defence, that'll likely stifle the forward line and potency somewhat.

Freo are the wildcard, no question, given last season was somewhat of an anomaly, getting them early away from home probably the time to do so.
We should be able win 1 of those games.

Hawthorn, well that's a rivalry where both supporter bases go in supremely confident of victory every time. No different here.
The two thorns in our side just got thrown away, no Ceglar or Roughy and Hill has been a tough matchup for us. Who's to say that Burgoyne, Hodge and Gibson don't hit the cliff, just like our older players could/already have?

Gut feel still says 7-8 wins from that 10, not so arrogant as to expect 10. We'll likely drop some, expect GWS at Spotless to be one such game.

 

[kreglze]

Pretty happy with our draw tbh.

Have all the big Melbourne clubs at home, which means great things for our attendances, revenue and atmosphere at the games.

Also have GWS out of the way in round 2 and don't have to play them again. Brisbane round 1 at Metricon is also a ripper start to the season. Especially looking forward to Hawthorn's trip in round 3, hopefully Jaeger is up and going, will be an interesting reception.

Only drawback to me, only 1 game at the MCG this season, kind of disappointing, but can't win them all.

 

[ADL9798]

Maybe, if I said to you you'd lose next year to Port would you be disappointed with that outcome given the two teams abilities?

Not at this stage, ask me 2 weeks before the game and I might be able to give you an answer. I'd always be disappointed to lose against Port because they're our cross-town rival, but I'd never be so arrogant as to assume guaranteed victory 6 months out over a team that finished in that middle band (history shows that at least 1 or 2 of those teams are inevitably going to push up into the top 8, and with Ryder coming back addressing their biggest weakness in 2016 Port are as likely as any in that group to make that step up), let alone over a side that finished just 1 game behind us with a tougher draw and; given the respective age profiles of the 2 lists, has far more scope for natural improvement and growth over the off-season.

I feel similarly about Adelaide, we simply have a better midfield and you don't have a player to go with our dynamic duo. So yeah I'd be disappointed to lose. More so at home than away as I think the away game is in a stretch of interstate trips. So is a possible loss.
If we win fewer than 6 of our 10 double up games that's an abject fail.

Cam Guthrie and Steve Motlop?



Taking a long term perspective, to be honest I think the Cats list management strategy has been pretty poor and extremely short sighted since your last flag, and in my opinion at some point you'll have to pay a very heavy tax for it. Will that be next year? Probably not, who knows, but 'dynamic duo' or no 'dynamic duo', at some point the following are inevitably going to cause some significant pain for Geelong:

• No A-graders/AA level talent drafted/developed internally since 2007, Blicavs probably your best in that period. I like the look of Cockatoo but that's about it in terms of potential A-graders from your current stock. Had you drafted more effectively I don't think you'd find yourself in the position where you have had to trade out of the first round for 3 successive years to play catch up patch up in the trade/free agency markets.
• A net loss of talent in the middle to upper age bracket. With the exception of Dangerfield you've been replacing All Australians with B to B+ level footballers (Scarlett for Rivers/Henderson, Corey for Caddy, Enright for Tuohy, Chapman for S. Selwood, Johnson for Black etc etc).

We'll see how you go next season. For me the cockiness is slightly misplaced, and while you may have a good season I don't think there's any reason at this stage for Cats fans to feel vastly superior to any of the 10 or so other sides who will be right in the frame for finals in 2017.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Taking a long term perspective, to be honest I think the Cats list management strategy has been pretty poor and extremely short sighted since your last flag, and in my opinion at some point you'll have to pay a very heavy tax for it. Will that be next year? Probably not, who knows, but 'dynamic duo' or no 'dynamic duo', at some point the following are inevitably going to cause some significant pain for Geelong:

• No A-graders/AA level talent drafted/developed internally since 2007, Blicavs probably your best in that period. I like the look of Cockatoo but that's about it in terms of potential A-graders from your current stock. Had you drafted more effectively I don't think you'd find yourself in the position where you have had to trade out of the first round for 3 successive years to play catch up patch up in the trade/free agency markets.
• A net loss of talent in the middle to upper age bracket. With the exception of Dangerfield you've been replacing All Australians with B to B+ level footballers (Scarlett for Rivers/Henderson, Corey for Caddy, Enright for Tuohy, Chapman for S. Selwood, Johnson for Black etc etc).

You know what, that's sounds about what 2 top 10 picks in a decade does. Sort of makes it harder to accumulate top end talent.
Of course we're being short sighted.....on purpose.
Selwood is a special footballer, Hawkins and Taylor aver very good at either end, we're trying to get one more flag before they retire and then GWS and to a lesser extent the Dogs take over the comp. That's an admirable trait imo, a club that doesn't just sit back and wonder what if this what if that. We're taking the bold route and quite possibly it ends fruitlessly, but so what? The club will still exist, it's not going anywhere.

You think we're being reckless with the future, I think they realise there's still a small window to get one more and whilst the AFL's monster win a few flags we can go down the bottom and accumulate draft picks en masse. Meanwhile clubs like the Dees, Saints, Crows, Dogs will have to compete with that side. Good luck with that.
Should take a max of 5 years if we do it right. That's roughly how long it's taken the Dogs and Saints. Both played against us in the 2010 finals series then dropped off the following year before hitting the cliff the next year. One got the flag this year, the other missed finals on percentage.

As for the 2nd bullet point, were FA not here we'd have rebuilt properly by now, the only difference between Hawthorn and us is they were slightly better positioned age wise when the two expansion teams diluted the talent pool and slowed the rise of the chasing pack of clubs. Luck's a fortune it netted them 3 in a row. Right place and the right time.

No. Not at this stage, ask me 2 weeks before the game and I might be able to give you an answer. I'd always be disappointed to lose against Port because they're our cross-town rival, but I'd never be so arrogant as to assume guaranteed victory 6 months out over a team that finished in that middle band (history shows that at least 1 or 2 of those teams are inevitably going to push up into the top 8, and with Ryder coming back addressing their biggest weakness in 2016 Port are as likely as any in that group to make that step up), let alone over a side that finished just 1 game behind us with a tougher draw and; given the respective age profiles of the 2 lists, has far more scope for natural improvement and growth over the off-season.

Cam Guthrie and Steve Motlop?

what about the 2nd game? both polled votes in that game. We've weakened our team, no question but you haven't really strengthened yours as of yet.

Our two strengths this season over Adelaide were the midfield and defence. Defence has obviously weakened with one great out. we match up well on your dangerous forwards, Tex, Jenkins, Betts, Lynch. Our midfield hasn't really regressed imo. Caddy didn't spend much time there in the 2nd half of the season. That said you haven't strengthened there at all and Thompson is running on fumes. Not arrogantly saying guaranteed wins, the AO game probably will be hotly contested but am happy to get a side we have a good record over as a double up. That's the excitement. I'm less excited about Freo twice as Ross has this hold over us, even when it was Bomber coaching.

Of the teams in the top 6 (which as a refresher were Sydney, WB, GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn) from which we were going to get 2-3 as a double up if asked to preference them, I'd go as follows; Adelaide, Hawthorn, WB, Sydney and GWS.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

chef

 

[Jatz]

Course they say that.

Also, with the number of Friday night games between Sydney and WB, both teams will cover about 2/3's of the Friday night games next season between them. That's a lot, even when providing the higher performing teams the better time slots.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

It'll be better than having shittrucks like Carlolton on 7 Friday nights like a few years ago

 

[Jatz]

And what if one of them has a Freo like season? It's obviously unlikely but if it happened, you'd end up with the exact same issue.

 

[elhadjihenry]

And what if one of them has a Freo like season? It's obviously unlikely but if it happened, you'd end up with the exact same issue.

No chance the Dogs do but North could easily fall off a cliff over the next season or two. That AFL statement means nothing in reality, keeps the Dogs and North supporters happy but also lets them pull the rug out from under them in the case its a flop.

 

[Jatz]

No chance the Dogs do but North could easily fall off a cliff over the next season or two. That AFL statement means nothing in reality, keeps the Dogs and North supporters happy but also lets them pull the rug out from under them in the case its a flop.

We're talking about Friday night games haha

 

[elhadjihenry]

We're talking about Friday night games haha

Ah whoops missed that post!

 

[Bojan KantKick]

No chance the Dogs do but North could easily fall off a cliff over the next season or two. That AFL statement means nothing in reality, keeps the Dogs and North supporters happy but also lets them pull the rug out from under them in the case its a flop.

Lots of people jumped to conclusions when the afl said they may rotate it too.....

On North, happy to take bets on us not falling off a cliff. Calls for bottom 4 from some are laughable.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

And what if one of them has a Freo like season? It's obviously unlikely but if it happened, you'd end up with the exact same issue.

Lol.
Comparing the grand finalists prospects next year to your team a few years ago.

One is a perennial contender, the other are a young and exciting team with plenty of talent and upside. It would be like saying Spurs shouldn't have TV exposure because they might have a Freo like season.

 

[elhadjihenry]

Lots of people jumped to conclusions when the afl said they may rotate it too.....

On North, happy to take bets on us not falling off a cliff. Calls for bottom 4 from some are laughable.

No chance you'll be bottom 4, I'd happily make a bet on your dropping out of the 8 this year though.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

No chance you'll be bottom 4, I'd happily make a bet on your dropping out of the 8 this year though.

Reckon we'll be anywhere from 6-12th. Only Wells is a loss from last years team.

 

[Jatz]

Lol.
Comparing the grand finalists prospects next year to your team a few years ago.

One is a perennial contender, the other are a young and exciting team with plenty of talent and upside. It would be like saying Spurs shouldn't have TV exposure because they might have a Freo like season.

I was comparing them to Freo you melt.

You know, the minor premiers in 15, that turned to absolute s**t the year after.

I've already said it's unlikely but if it happened again, it's a large chunk of the season.

 

[Jatz]

Reckon we'll be anywhere from 6-12th. Only Wells is a loss from last years team.

Harvey is a big loss.

The other three aren't.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Harvey is a big loss.

The other three aren't.

Why? He applied zero pressure and ran one way in a slow forward line that needed it.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

I was comparing them to Freo you melt.

You know, the minor premiers in 15, that turned to absolute s**t the year after.

I've already said it's unlikely but if it happened again, it's a large chunk of the season.

Yeah and it was embarrassing. How are Sydney or the Dogs a chance to do what Freo did?

If my aunt had bollocks she'd be my uncle.

 

[Buckleys Jocks]

Come on Doctor Gero you're not trying to seriously suggest that Toovey, Frost, Williams, Brown and co are departures that will hurt us are you?

All were pushed out by the club for a reason. Brown is the only one with some value left and even then he did more harm than good with the amount of turnovers he's responsible for. Bucks has not topped up to save his job, we've simply replaced a core group of experienced players (who were all cooked except Swan) with players that have more to offer us on matchday, and we've given up very little to do it.

Your assumption that we'll adopt negative tactics to cover for the defence is way off as the whole point of this list cull has been to get rid of the poor users and slow movers so that we can play the fast aggressive style that Bucks wants. We've lost a fair bit of height back there but overall our defence will be better for it as we've replaced almost all the butchers and plodders back there in one fell swoop. We'll be undersized but it will be worth it to have a much more mobile and skilled defensive unit next year.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Come on Doctor Gero you're not trying to seriously suggest that Toovey, Frost, Williams, Brown and co are departures that will hurt us are you?

All were pushed out by the club for a reason. Brown is the only one with some value left and even then he did more harm than good with the amount of turnovers he's responsible for. Bucks has not topped up to save his job, we've simply replaced a core group of experienced players (who were all cooked except Swan) with players that have more to offer us on matchday, and we've given up very little to do it.

Your assumption that we'll adopt negative tactics to cover for the defence is way off as the whole point of this list cull has been to get rid of the poor users and slow movers so that we can play the fast aggressive style that Bucks wants. We've lost a fair bit of height back there but overall our defence will be better for it as we've replaced almost all the butchers and plodders back there in one fell swoop. We'll be undersized but it will be worth it to have a much more mobile and skilled defensive unit next year.

Who will play in defence aside from Reid?

Who plays forward beside Fasolo and Moore?