The bottom line about the current AFL landscape

[CoggaRules]

IMO, there are 3 teams in a league of their own. The lists of those 3 teams were basically set up a few years ago. The introduction of the new clubs have now had the effect on the rest of the comp stagnating and the gap between the top 3 and the rest of the comp has widened alarmingly. Due to the draft concessions, whatever anyone says, all teams are pushing shit up hill trying to close the gap with sub standard draftees. The top shelf kids are at GWS and the Suns as we speak. So you can see what is going to happen.
The next contenders to these 3 teams are going to be the Suns and then the GWS will chime in and we will just make up numbers. Sorry if that doesnt sit well with tigerheads but thats how reality works.
We might pick up a gem down the order, like say a McBean, but thats the lucky dip and that is only 1 player. What worries me is that the last "find", like real "find" we have had is Axel from the rookie list and ever since, we have unearthed SHIT...

I mean here we are debating and arguing about the pluses of a Tuck and a Jackson FFS. Like how ****ing hilarious does that look to supporters of the top shelf. Look at their on ballers and point out to me one player that they need to argue and debate about???

Then you have Jake King coming out and saying we can go all the way. Really??? I mean why say that FFS, when we are basically 5 upgrades at least away from thinking about matching it with the bench marks.

 

[melbournehammer]

IMO, there are 3 teams in a league of their own. The lists of those 3 teams were basically set up a few years ago. The introduction of the new clubs have now had the effect on the rest of the comp stagnating and the gap between the top 3 and the rest of the comp has widened alarmingly. Due to the draft concessions, whatever anyone says, all teams are pushing shit up hill trying to close the gap with sub standard draftees. The top shelf kids are at GWS and the Suns as we speak. So you can see what is going to happen.
The next contenders to these 3 teams are going to be the Suns and then the GWS will chime in and we will just make up numbers. Sorry if that doesnt sit well with tigerheads but thats how reality works.
We might pick up a gem down the order, like say a McBean, but thats the lucky dip and that is only 1 player. What worries me is that the last "find", like real "find" we have had is Axel from the rookie list and ever since, we have unearthed SHIT...

I mean here we are debating and arguing about the pluses of a Tuck and a Jackson FFS. Like how ******* hilarious does that look to supporters of the top shelf. Look at their on ballers and point out to me one player that they need to argue and debate about???

Then you have Jake King coming out and saying we can go all the way. Really??? I mean why say that FFS, when we are basically 5 upgrades at least away from thinking about matching it with the bench marks.

forgive the intrusion but i think you are much, much closer than you think.

the game was basically decided in the inside midfield. when you got it to the outside you looked every bit as likely to score as us. the turnover of our list in 2009-10 brought two critical players - mumford and kennedy. natural improvement from the likes of jack, hanners, improved our list, and some smart recruiting made all the difference - dane rampe was someone playing in the sydney football league - not even the NEAFL - surely there must be some players in the vfl, sanfl who can play at the level and are desperate for a crack.

but is the ted richards of 2009 so much better than rance ? grundy than chaplin ? there wouldnt be a swans fan who wouldnt say nick smith is the best small defender in the league but chris newman is a pretty decent small, and against us at the mcg last year just controlled the game. riewoldt is the equal of any tall forward in the game. jake king is no worse than ballantyne or mcglynn and probably only rioli stands out above that. martin, cotchin, conca, griggs, martin, are all very decent midfielders.

one extra strong ruckman (and dont forget we got pyke basically for nothing) and one inside midfielder like kennedy, parker, o'keefe, will make you a seriously compettive side - which i actually think you already are.

 

[CoggaRules]

forgive the intrusion but i think you are much, much closer than you think.

the game was basically decided in the inside midfield. when you got it to the outside you looked every bit as likely to score as us. the turnover of our list in 2009-10 brought two critical players - mumford and kennedy. natural improvement from the likes of jack, hanners, improved our list, and some smart recruiting made all the difference - dane rampe was someone playing in the sydney football league - not even the NEAFL - surely there must be some players in the vfl, sanfl who can play at the level and are desperate for a crack.

but is the ted richards of 2009 so much better than rance ? grundy than chaplin ? there wouldnt be a swans fan who wouldnt say nick smith is the best small defender in the league but chris newman is a pretty decent small, and against us at the mcg last year just controlled the game. riewoldt is the equal of any tall forward in the game. jake king is no worse than ballantyne or mcglynn and probably only rioli stands out above that. martin, cotchin, conca, griggs, martin, are all very decent midfielders.

one extra strong ruckman (and dont forget we got pyke basically for nothing) and one inside midfielder like kennedy, parker, o'keefe, will make you a seriously compettive side - which i actually think you already are.

yeah granted but at the end of the day, the fact remains that your team along with the other 2 have got their lists in the state they are in, pre the intro of the draft concessions.. the end. Just think about no GWS and where Cameron might have gone etc...the ptoblem is that while we develop as you say, players like Lids are now starting to get on and basically staring down one shot at it and thats it...If we dont get smart and sacrifice 1 or 2 top guns to get 4 soon to be top guns then we will hang around 8-7-6 for a while and if we make a push into top 4, by that time the unbeatable Suns with the emerging GWS will be kicking everyones butt for a decade...

 

[tigs2010]

forgive the intrusion but i think you are much, much closer than you think.

the game was basically decided in the inside midfield. when you got it to the outside you looked every bit as likely to score as us. the turnover of our list in 2009-10 brought two critical players - mumford and kennedy. natural improvement from the likes of jack, hanners, improved our list, and some smart recruiting made all the difference - dane rampe was someone playing in the sydney football league - not even the NEAFL - surely there must be some players in the vfl, sanfl who can play at the level and are desperate for a crack.

but is the ted richards of 2009 so much better than rance ? grundy than chaplin ? there wouldnt be a swans fan who wouldnt say nick smith is the best small defender in the league but chris newman is a pretty decent small, and against us at the mcg last year just controlled the game. riewoldt is the equal of any tall forward in the game. jake king is no worse than ballantyne or mcglynn and probably only rioli stands out above that. martin, cotchin, conca, griggs, martin, are all very decent midfielders.

one extra strong ruckman (and dont forget we got pyke basically for nothing) and one inside midfielder like kennedy, parker, o'keefe, will make you a seriously compettive side - which i actually think you already are.

Agree with most of what you said. Another 1-2 inside midfielders with good skills will go a long way to pushing us into the top 4. We are making a big push for Taylor Adams and obviously already have Vlastuin on the list who once he builds his tank will be able to go through the middle as a tough bullocking midfielder.

I thought Rance/Chaplin did fine but not having a 3rd tall defender hurt us. Once we get Grimes back in 2 weeks that will be fixed but we really need to recruit another KPD as depth to cover for tissue paper Grimes. This week we play Hawthorn who have 4 tall forwards and we literally have no defenders to play against them unless we promote Darrou whose a 19yo rookie coming back from a broken jaw.

We have our Nick Smith type in Morris but outside Houli our rebounding is pretty bad. Newman looks past it unfortunately and is a bit of a passenger whilst Petterd can get the ball but doesn't use it all that well. Deledio probably should head back to give us some drive. He's been crap for about 6 weeks. His last good game was off the hbf against Adelaide.

Riewoldt can be as good as any other forward when he leads. That hit up in the 3rd quarter was fantastic and if he did that more often he'd be on about 65+ goals this year but often gets stuck wrestling with the defender. We need another KPF to step up so someone like Grundy can't jump over the top to spoil. Vickery is one option but he also has to play ruck so we need that other permanent forward like you guys use with White to stop Tippett getting molested.

The midfield is looking very good. Probably as good as any other teams excluding yours. They still need to build the fitness level but on talent they are as good as any. And we definitely need some help for Ivan. Longer/Gorringe are the ones we are after just not sure how we pull that off as well as Taylor Adams.

What I don't agree with is King being as good as Ballantyne etc. We need to seriously upgrade on him.

 

[CoggaRules]

Agree with most of what you said. Another 1-2 inside midfielders with good skills will go a long way to pushing us into the top 4. We are making a big push for Taylor Adams and obviously already have Vlastuin on the list who once he builds his tank will be able to go through the middle as a tough bullocking midfielder.

I thought Rance/Chaplin did fine but not having a 3rd tall defender hurt us. Once we get Grimes back in 2 weeks that will be fixed but we really need to recruit another KPD as depth to cover for tissue paper Grimes. This week we play Hawthorn who have 4 tall forwards and we literally have no defenders to play against them unless we promote Darrou whose a 19yo rookie coming back from a broken jaw.

We have our Nick Smith type in Morris but outside Houli our rebounding is pretty bad. Newman looks past it unfortunately and is a bit of a passenger whilst Petterd can get the ball but doesn't use it all that well. Deledio probably should head back to give us some drive. He's been crap for about 6 weeks. His last good game was off the hbf against Adelaide.

Riewoldt can be as good as any other forward when he leads. That hit up in the 3rd quarter was fantastic and if he did that more often he'd be on about 65+ goals this year but often gets stuck wrestling with the defender. We need another KPF to step up so someone like Grundy can't jump over the top to spoil. Vickery is one option but he also has to play ruck so we need that other permanent forward like you guys use with White to stop Tippett getting molested.

The midfield is looking very good. Probably as good as any other teams excluding yours. They still need to build the fitness level but on talent they are as good as any. And we definitely need some help for Ivan. Longer/Gorringe are the ones we are after just not sure how we pull that off as well as Taylor Adams.

What I don't agree with is King being as good as Ballantyne etc. We need to seriously upgrade on him.

All good, but as much as I like Vlas, the bottom line is that we were picking from the dregs and have been for the last few years. There is no way known that doesnt play a role with the current landscape in terms of the gap between the top 3 and the rest and the length of time for that gap to be closed. The one thing that we havent found forever is a ruckman. Until then we are just going to plod around 6th and 7th. I am really worried that when and "if" we make it, we are jsut going to get handed our arses on a plate like Norf have been in the last 2 years. Yeah, the first year wont matter, because we will all say, it was our first in a trillion years etc, but we sit on our laurles and talk up plodders as some kind of important ingredients for sucess.

Lets face it, we have fools here arguing about Jacksons and Tucks etc. I mean really?? there are doubts about these dudes and their lack of skill? Like really?? I mean there is not one on baller for Sydney that lacks skill like these 2 and we need to debate if we need upgrades? Because of the one time in band camp moments that helped us beat a team down the bottom ?


IMO, we have gone backwards in terms of quality of results this year. We have not yet won one game that had something riding on it, in terms of lifting us to the next level. We have had a top run with injuries and a lucky run with opposition teams forced outs and for me our position in the 8 is another false dawn atm. That will not go down to well with alot of tigerheads but its reality...i feel we are going to get let down dismally if we dont start fixing the glaring defieciencies on and off the field.

 

[tigs2010]

All good, but as much as I like Vlas, the bottom line is that we were picking from the dregs and have been for the last few years. There is no way known that doesnt play a role with the current landscape in terms of the gap between the top 3 and the rest and the length of time for that gap to be closed. The one thing that we havent found forever is a ruckman. Until then we are just going to plod around 6th and 7th. I am really worried that when and "if" we make it, we are jsut going to get handed our arses on a plate like Norf have been in the last 2 years. Yeah, the first year wont matter, because we will all say, it was our first in a trillion years etc, but we sit on our laurles and talk up plodders as some kind of important ingredients for sucess.

Lets face it, we have fools here arguing about Jacksons and Tucks etc. I mean really?? there are doubts about these dudes and their lack of skill? Like really?? I mean there is not one on baller for Sydney that lacks skill like these 2 and we need to debate if we need upgrades? Because of the one time in band camp moments that helped us beat a team down the bottom ?


IMO, we have gone backwards in terms of quality of results this year. We have not yet won one game that had something riding on it, in terms of lifting us to the next level. We have had a top run with injuries and a lucky run with opposition teams forced outs and for me our position in the 8 is another false dawn atm. That will not go down to well with alot of tigerheads but its reality...i feel we are going to get let down dismally if we dont start fixing the glaring defieciencies on and off the field.

I had Vlastuin ranked top 4 last year and I think he'll end up better than a lot of the GWS kids picked ahead of him. The problem is just weight of numbers. They'll have at least 3 that end up about that level while we have 1 that may be slightly better. Have to start trying to steal as many as we can. Other clubs included. I think last year teams like Hawthorn and Sydney didn't take us seriously. Yesterday you could see Sydney had primed themselves to teach us a lesson. I still think with another KPD we could have kept that loss to a 25 point loss and it's not all doom and gloom.

For me we still need (whether they be on the list currently or need to be recruited):
2 KPD's (Grimes is probably one)
1/2 Rucks (Back-Up to Ivan and A young developing one)
2 KPF's (McBean could become one but that only covers the 3 that would play)
Small forward (We have no one)
Midfield depth (More and more guys that can run through the middle and spread onto the flanks like Cats/Swans)

 

[wart101]

IMO, there are 3 teams in a league of their own. The lists of those 3 teams were basically set up a few years ago. The introduction of the new clubs have now had the effect on the rest of the comp stagnating and the gap between the top 3 and the rest of the comp has widened alarmingly. Due to the draft concessions, whatever anyone says, all teams are pushing shit up hill trying to close the gap with sub standard draftees. The top shelf kids are at GWS and the Suns as we speak. So you can see what is going to happen.
The next contenders to these 3 teams are going to be the Suns and then the GWS will chime in and we will just make up numbers. Sorry if that doesnt sit well with tigerheads but thats how reality works.
We might pick up a gem down the order, like say a McBean, but thats the lucky dip and that is only 1 player. What worries me is that the last "find", like real "find" we have had is Axel from the rookie list and ever since, we have unearthed SHIT...

I mean here we are debating and arguing about the pluses of a Tuck and a Jackson FFS. Like how ******* hilarious does that look to supporters of the top shelf. Look at their on ballers and point out to me one player that they need to argue and debate about???

Then you have Jake King coming out and saying we can go all the way. Really??? I mean why say that FFS, when we are basically 5 upgrades at least away from thinking about matching it with the bench marks.

you are counting chickens before they have hatched, simple as that!

But i do get what you are saying in a way, that's why RFC have put money into the relevant departments

 

[Wallaby]

The Swans have the following players:

Malceski - Draft pick 64
Hanneberry - pick 30
White - 79
O'Keefe - 56
Grundy - Rookie
Parker - 40
Goodes - 37
Kennedy - traded by Hawks after 12 games in 3 years
Mumford - Geelong rated him 3rd best ruck after 1 year as a rookie.
Jack - Rookie list

In 2009, the Swans top 3 in their B&F were: Jack, Mumford and Kennedy. **Edit: 2010 - they made the semi finals that year**

Probably their highest draft pick over the years is Bolton - at #8, 12 years ago.

There is talent at all levels of the draft. There are duds at all levels of the draft (and the swans have had a few of those). What is important is developing that talent and putting together a structure that works. You might call it teamwork, spirit, 'No Dickheads policy' - whatever. If you call it luck - 'Oh, they picked up only good kids late in the draft, and we got no-one' - you're missing the point.

A champion team will always beat a team of champions over a season.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

IMO, there are 3 teams in a league of their own. The lists of those 3 teams were basically set up a few years ago. The introduction of the new clubs have now had the effect on the rest of the comp stagnating and the gap between the top 3 and the rest of the comp has widened alarmingly. Due to the draft concessions, whatever anyone says, all teams are pushing shit up hill trying to close the gap with sub standard draftees. The top shelf kids are at GWS and the Suns as we speak. So you can see what is going to happen.
The next contenders to these 3 teams are going to be the Suns and then the GWS will chime in and we will just make up numbers. Sorry if that doesnt sit well with tigerheads but thats how reality works.
We might pick up a gem down the order, like say a McBean, but thats the lucky dip and that is only 1 player. What worries me is that the last "find", like real "find" we have had is Axel from the rookie list and ever since, we have unearthed SHIT...

I mean here we are debating and arguing about the pluses of a Tuck and a Jackson FFS. Like how ******* hilarious does that look to supporters of the top shelf. Look at their on ballers and point out to me one player that they need to argue and debate about???

Then you have Jake King coming out and saying we can go all the way. Really??? I mean why say that FFS, when we are basically 5 upgrades at least away from thinking about matching it with the bench marks.

I disagree. The top three this year is probably less dominant than the top 3 of 2008-2011. In 2011 we had Collingwood 20-2, Geelong 19-3 and Hawthorn 18-4 as the top 3 sides. Without the expansion clubs Hawthorn would've received pick 14 and been able to draft Devon Smith or Brandon Ellis, leaving Geelong to snatch up the other.

The introduction of the GC/GWS has helped equalise the league.

 

[CoggaRules]

I disagree. The top three this year is probably less dominant than the top 3 of 2008-2011. In 2011 we had Collingwood 20-2, Geelong 19-3 and Hawthorn 18-4 as the top 3 sides. Without the expansion clubs Hawthorn would've received pick 14 and been able to draft Devon Smith or Brandon Ellis, leaving Geelong to snatch up the other.

The introduction of the GC/GWS has helped equalise the league.

huh?? ...whatever you think dude...lmao...so lets get this straight, the introduction of the GC and GWS has helped equalise shit correct?

 

[sante]

If we played a 3rd tall we would have only lost by 3-4 goals.

 

[Football Tragic]

Saints and Carlton are a team of early draft picks yet Sydney seems to out play them on the big stage regularly. Hawks are the other team who have plenty of top draft picks in their team but they are performing. I think you need a mixture of talent, development and culture. Look at Scully, Watts and Trengrove - potential talent still needs development and culture to work as a team. We're now recruiting players of character which is the one ingredient we have lacked to create a powerful team for decades - culture.

Don't write our future chances off from one or even a few bad games.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

huh?? ...whatever you think dude...lmao...so lets get this straight, the introduction of the GC and GWS has helped equalise shit correct?

Yes it has. The higher finishing clubs were knocked furthur down the draft order than the lower clubs. The current top 3 are no more dominant than in the past.

Total losses of the top 3 teams each year:

2008 - 12
2009 - 13
2010 - 15
2011 - 9
2012 - 16
2013 - 8 with 5 rounds to go

Adding furthur to that St Kilda and the Bulldogs both collapsed and Collingwood appear to be on the slide. Several of the bottom 3 teams from 2010/2011 have also rebounded quickly (West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide).

 

[CoggaRules]

Yes it has. The higher finishing clubs were knocked furthur down the draft order than the lower clubs. The current top 3 are no more dominant than in the past.

Total losses of the top 3 teams each year:

2008 - 12
2009 - 13
2010 - 15
2011 - 9
2012 - 16
2013 - 8 with 5 rounds to go

Adding furthur to that St Kilda and the Bulldogs both collapsed and Collingwood appear to be on the slide. Several of the bottom 3 teams from 2010/2011 have also rebounded quickly (West Coast, Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide).

man, wtf is this? At the end of the day, the new clubs tool all the silk and left every other club the dregs. If you were higher at the time you didnt have to hang onto picking up someone like others below..I mean what is this BS with stats?

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

man, wtf is this? At the end of the day, the new clubs tool all the silk and left every other club the dregs. If you were higher at the time you didnt have to hang onto picking up someone like others below..I mean what is this BS with stats?

You said the league was more uneven than it has been in the past and we have a situation where the top 3 are so much more dominant than usual. That's not true. In 2008 it was the Cats/Hawks/Dogs, in 2009 Geelong and St Kilda finished a mile clear of the Dogs in 3rd, 2011 saw the Pies/Cats/Hawks win 57/66 games. A number of these teams finished with over 150%.

 

[leemo]

I agree cogga. One thing me and my dad have been saying for years is if you look at the really good teams of theist few years- hawks, cats, swans and to a lesser extent collingwood, they have got a group of 5-10 really experienced players that just know what to do and how to control the game, and respond to certain situations when things aren't going to plan. These players aren't necessarily "stars", but just good solid players with 150 odd games under their belt.
Look at the swans, Bolton, malceski, Richards, mcveigh... They don't need instructions from the coach. These guys just know what to do through experience.
It's because they have this core group that they've been able to introduce kids and give them a run and see how they go without it affecting team structures too much. They've all been around long enough and the swans have only needed to nail one pick each draft to ensure team balance isn't upset and they only need to bring these kids in when there is injuries or retirements!

I actually think we're a lot better placed than the saints, dogs, lions etc as in a few years time our players like cotch, Martin, jack, grimes, vlastuin will all be around that mark, they're all certainly good enough to get there, then hopefully we will be in a similar position.

 

[Bojangles17]

I do t agree witht eh great divide cogg
Our elite midfield cotch, lids martin ellis conca and vlas and now arnot stacks up very well in terms of quality and average age to GC and GWS our kpp are a mile ahead...both defences are barely worth mentioning ...we have a few areas that need boosting as in rucks and an extra mid...nothing a good draft wont address, we are much better placed than most...still i dont believe either are premiership contenders unless they recruit some quality into defence

 

[NUFC Tiger]

I don't think we are too far off - we do have a few wholes to plug but with more time, experience and development, our emerging players will start to become players who can match it with the best. We are still largely a team made up of younger players.