Opinion The 'Carlton related stuff that doesn't need it's own thread' thread Part 2

[DangerousD]

It does. Simple fact, if we don't win the ball through clearance via centre bounce or stoppage... then the opponent has won it. How do you generate score from turnover? Well opposition need to have gained possession first.

Since our strong point is that we are a clearance team, we are winning the ball and hence generating our score from there. We've just been very efficient at doing that. If we win a clearance, then lose the ball (turn it over) then we have to pressure the opposition to turn it over back to us where we can generate our score. That is the only way we can "improve" that stat. I can't see how that makes us a better team.

Like I said, hypothetically, if we didn't score so much from clearances in our great patch of form, then I'd wager a big bet that we'd have generated more score from turnover simply because the application was there. The pressure and intent they applied would have generated more turnovers and that stat would read very differently.

Those "stat gurus" on their talk shows can't compute that we score so much through clearances so they call it unsustainable. I'm not going to worry about the fact that we have been able to clear the ball from centre or stoppage and use it efficiently when we go forward. Neither should anybody else.

We can go around in circles as much as we like, CD have the last 11 premiers being in the top 6 of points conceded off turnover.

We aren’t in that bracket. If we are to go deep in September or even run, we will need to buck that trend.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We can go around in circles as much as we like, CD have the last 11 premiers being in the top 6 of points conceded off turnover.

We aren’t in that bracket. If we are to go deep in September or even run, we will need to buck that trend.

We can, but like I said, if we bring the application we did through our winning streak we will likely score more from turnover even if we don't through clearance.

The stats never paint the full picture.

 

[Gethelred]

I agree with both of you.

For a year, you can buck the trend and dominate contested ball/clearances to the extent that you can win a flag from it. Think 2016 had the Dogs win off the back of defensive pivots and contested ball/clearance coupled with with time in possession dominance, provided they got players back after the prefinals bye.

Having said that, you need to be inside the top 6 for scoring from turnover - regardless of whether it's a shit statistic or not - to win sustainably, unless you can sustain that clearance/CP/time in possession dominance 19/20; if an opponent can beat you round the ball once across a season, you can almost guarantee that it'll happen on Grand Final day.

It's a plan A and a plan B. The best sides plan to score from either, but Hawthorn built their clearance game to create turnovers and Richmond built their game to lose the clearance but win the turnover. There will always be something you do better, but you need to be able to do both.

 

[My Hat]

What does 'scores from turnover' mean?

It could reflect your ability to force opposition mistakes, i.e. pressure. Or your ability to capitalise on mistakes when they happen, which includes clean ball movement etc. Or the extent to which the opposition is getting the ball in the first place, i.e. how often you are losing earlier contests. In practice it's some proportion of all of those and probably other factors too, and the precise mix will vary from team to team. In short, it tells you something but it doesn't tell you everything.

Stats are like any other model. They're a deliberately simplified view of reality that can nevertheless be useful if they are well designed. But if you start mistaking the model for the reality it's trying to represent, you're in trouble.

 

[DangerousD]

We can, but like I said, if we bring the application we did through our winning streak we will likely score more from turnover even if we don't through clearance.

The stats never paint the full picture.

That’s true, i was reading what the definition of turnover is to CD, it says, a score that results from an unbroken change after a turnover.

It’s just a bit strange to me that we are poor in this regard, as we cause plenty of turn overs, is it a personal thing or by design? Why can’t we be better at scoring from a turnover and still maintain clearance dominance?

 

[Gethelred]

That’s true, i was reading what the definition of turnover is to CD, it says, a score that results from an unbroken change after a turnover.

It’s just a bit strange to me that we are poor in this regard, as we cause plenty of turn overs, is it a personal thing or by design? Why can’t we be better at scoring from a turnover and still maintain clearance dominance?

It might just be a quirk of coaching as much as anything else. Perhaps we turn turnovers into stoppages inside 50 and then score from those stoppages; we still score from turnover, but it cannot be labeled as such.

 

[katmanblue]

That’s true, i was reading what the definition of turnover is to CD, it says, a score that results from an unbroken change after a turnover.

It’s just a bit strange to me that we are poor in this regard, as we cause plenty of turn overs, is it a personal thing or by design? Why can’t we be better at scoring from a turnover and still maintain clearance dominance?

Our ball movement needs work.

And out forward entries are not great much of the time.

It's improved but still not anywhere near unpredictable as it should be to opposition teams. Especially with Charlie and H both in the side.

Often we'll get the inside 50 but the ball will bounce out and come back or it will be a stoppage. Even if we subsequently score, it's not longer a score from turnover because of the stoppage or broken play from the initial turnover.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[manang magoos]

Not really

Stoppage may have occurred by us turning over the ball

Turnover scoring is completely different, which measures ball movement/scoring from non stoppages

Oh please stop your making my head hurt

 

[Arr0w]

Oh please stop your making my head hurt

Just ignore it then

 

[Blue_Fusion]

That’s true, i was reading what the definition of turnover is to CD, it says, a score that results from an unbroken change after a turnover.

It’s just a bit strange to me that we are poor in this regard, as we cause plenty of turn overs, is it a personal thing or by design? Why can’t we be better at scoring from a turnover and still maintain clearance dominance?

I don't think we were poor. It was almost a 50-50 split re scores from clearances and turnovers iinm.

Can't have high scores generated in both areas, we'd win by 200 points.

 

[skadoosh]

Got these 2 mini flags from Coles for $3.50. The kids will love them - good buy!! Coles had a lot of little knick knacks for Finals - socks, plates, cup holders, slipper etc.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Ignore the “stat” rubbish on clearance/turn over.
It’s bullshit, way too many variables & it’s way too imprecise.

It’s manufactured crap so the talking heads in the media can appear intelligent.

It’s very simple, all teams do things a little differently as they have different personnel & coaching.
What the successful ones have in common is that
A. They win the ball & score with pretty good efficiency
B. They punish mistakes - turnovers are capitalized on.

The degrees/levels of A & B vary, but it’s also combined with locking it in your forward line & attacking from backline - once again to varying degrees.

Who the opposition is & your strengths/line up dictates the game style.
Sometimes u can beat up on a team in the middle & drive from there, other teams u need to work harder on creating turnover and scoring thru run.
Plan A is always to get the ball in your hands first.

What I believe is the most important factor is completely immeasurable- its intent!

Its the will/drive & ability to get the ball or apply defensive pressure, u get that right it all works from there.
You then obviously need the skill to execute & hit the score board.

 

[Kruezing]

Ignore the “stat” rubbish on clearance/turn over.
It’s bullshit, way too many variables & it’s way too imprecise.

It’s manufactured crap so the talking heads in the media can appear intelligent.

It’s very simple, all teams do things a little differently as they have different personnel & coaching.
What the successful ones have in common is that
A. They win the ball & score with pretty good efficiency
B. They punish mistakes - turnovers are capitalized on.

The degrees/levels of A & B vary, but it’s also combined with locking it in your forward line & attacking from backline - once again to varying degrees.

Who the opposition is & your strengths/line up dictates the game style.
Sometimes u can beat up on a team in the middle & drive from there, other teams u need to work harder on creating turnover and scoring thru run.
Plan A is always to get the ball in your hands first.

What I believe is the most important factor is completely immeasurable- its intent!

Its the will/drive & ability to get the ball or apply defensive pressure, u get that right it all works from there.
You then obviously need the skill to execute & hit the score board.

If our intensity is at the level of the filth Port and Melbourne games we are not losing this game …

 

[Gointocarlton]

If our intensity is at the level of the filth Port and Melbourne games we are not losing this game …

If we play like we did against GWS we are not winning this game.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We can go around in circles as much as we like, CD have the last 11 premiers being in the top 6 of points conceded off turnover.

We aren’t in that bracket. If we are to go deep in September or even run, we will need to buck that trend.

Where do we rank if you narrow the data to the last 10 weeks?

 

[DangerousD]

Where do we rank if you narrow the data to the last 10 weeks?

Couldn’t tell you, i dont know how to find the figures that were shown on the footy shows. I recall them saying that our scores from turnovers only slightly increased during our run of 9 games.

 

[moocow]

Spoiler - it's pressure all the way down.

A lot of it is, there is a lot to do with confidence also. One thing Pagan did say(while at North) is that 95% of the comp are physical the same. Got to get the head right and that 5% is what wins.

 

[bigblueboy]

The Super Saturday event is a fabulous idea to bring fans together around both men and women teams. Well done to the club.

 

[Accidental genius]

Anyone been to Christou’s restaurant ?

 

[Kruezing]

Anyone been to Christou’s restaurant ?

Yep

 

[Accidental genius]

Yep

Menu pics look pretty good …

 

[Accidental genius]

Menu pics look pretty good …

A non blues supporter I know asked about it

 

[Stamos]

 

[Aphrodite]

From Twitter ...

 

[Aphrodite]

View attachment 1791565

Was that on Twitter (house in Malvern?)